Reply #14: I just think 2008 makes too much sense for Jeb to pass on a run

[Awsi Dooger]

The GOP will have held the White House for 8 years. That's not a disadvantegous position. It's neutral territory. One-party fatigue has not completely taken over at that point, like it does after 12 years. That's what Bush Sr. faced in 1992.

I think Jeb benefits from leaving office after 2006, regardless of how the Florida gov and senate races unfold that year. He can feign to distance himself from his brother and political decisionmaking for a while, then announce sometime during late 2007. You know darn well he can take advantage of GW's connections and staff from 2000 and 2004, and therefore money raising will be a cinch.

Remember, Jeb would probably have been the GOP nominee in 2000 if the '94 gov races in Florida and Texas had unfolded as predicted. Jeb was favored to defeat Lawton Chiles while Ann Richards was supposed to dismiss GW. Only a reversal of that propelled GW toward the 2000 bid.

Mostly, as I mentioned in my previous post, I think the Florida factor will be the trump card in Jeb running and the GOP making sure he's the nominee. If you look at historical results a favorite son has a clear advantage, in regard to how that state votes in comparison to its typical partisanship. Nominating Jeb automatically "buys" a bonus 3-5 net points in Florida for the GOP, something we simply can't overcome. That practically forces us to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania, or some unlikely combination of sweeping the swing midlevel states. Rove and Co. can do the math as well or better than I can. Jeb simply places them in the catbird seat in terms of margin for error, leaving us with almost none.

I really hope we focus on the critical gov and local seats in 2005, 2006 and beyond. We're in a down period on the federal level.