Reply #13: I forgot to mention about Granholm

[Awsi Dooger]

Incumbents are always given a huge benefit of a doubt in the betting lines. The polls don't mean nearly as much when an incumbent is trailing. Especially if the state is favorable to the partisanship of the incumbent. There's is no way the offshore betting outfits or the bettors at TradeSports, for example, are going to overreact to a 5 or 6 point poll deficit for a DeWine or Talent, for example.

It takes a very special case like Casey/Santorum for an incumbent to be a huge underdog. And that race is only 80/20. It's not like a 1 in 50 shot like many seem to think.

I frequently suppress a private chuckle around here when posters claim we have a big poll lead and only Diebold can steal it. Many, many times the race they are talking about the other side has been favored all year and it remains that way despite the poll numbers. In fact, wise guy gamblers will often chose that specific time to lock in a wager at a favorable number, right after a favorable poll comes out in favor of the other side. They don't believe it, based on historical analysis, and think the number will soar the other way once it gets closer to election time.