Reply #9: My prediction, with margins

[stevenleser]

First I analyzed every poll I could get my hands on, then I looked at the trends. In some cases, I even got a final take from the Rasmussen Reports futures market. Below shows a prediction where Obama wins 13 states and Hillary wins 9. But I think Obama will win at least two of the states where I indicated the potential for an Obama upset is high, making it 15 states for Obama and 7 for Hillary.

Alabama Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Alaska Obama by over 10%
Arizona Obama by over 10%
Arkansas Clinton by over 10%
California Obama by less than 5%
Colorado Obama by between 5% and 10%
Connecticut Obama by over 10%
Delaware Obama by between 5% and 10%
Georgia Obama by over 10%
Idaho Obama by over 10%
Illinois Obama by over 10%
Kansas Obama by over 10%
Massachusetts Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Minnesota Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Missouri Obama by less than 5%
New Jersey Clinton by between 5% and 10%
New Mexico Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
New York Clinton by over 10%
North Dakota Obama by over 10%
Oklahoma Clinton by over 10%
Tennessee Clinton by over 10%
Utah Obama by over 10%

Many states still have a large number of undecided voters. They are the wildcard in all of this. If most of the undecideds in a given state break one way or the other, they can change the outcome in all but four of the Super Tuesday states. Typically, the undecideds break in one of a few ways. They either break in similar ways to the existing polling, or they break for the way that the race is trending, in the case of Super Tuesday, that would mean an even better night for Obama. But sometimes, undecideds break in a way that is completely unpredictable.