Reply #12: I must disagree on both counts, the primary/GE aren't locked up yet, in fact I think we're screwed

[ShadowLiberal]

I'm an Obama supporter (and a very pessimistic person I'll admit) and I must strongly disagree with you.

First of all you mention that Hillary is broke and can't keep up with Obama, are you aware that it was announced today that Hillary has raised a bit over 7 million dollars so far this month? (most of it after super Tuesday). Also the Hillary campaign is now airing ads in places like Nebraska, and Texas, while it's been announced no one is going without pay on her staff. She's not broke yet, didn't you see the topics where people were wondering if the bad fund raising news was all a ploy to get her supporters to donate?

Second, I disagree with you that the nomination is locked up for Obama. The demographics in Texas and Ohio really don't favor him, and Hillary is almost definitely going to stay in until those states vote. Obama just doesn't do well among the poor, and among Hispanics. The poorer people in Ohio/Texas, and Hispanics in Texas could doom him if he can't grow his support in those areas.

Third, the fact that McCain has the republican nomination locked up now leaves the door open for republicans to switch their party registration (temporarily at least) to try to sabotage us in the general election by nominating whoever they think is the easier to beat. Most republicans don't think that Obama is the easiest to beat, they think it's Hillary. It's true though that some of them may be tempted to vote for Obama if they like the guy, because he does have support among some republicans who are dissatisfied with Bush and the way their party has changed lately.

As for the general election being a lock for us and the republicans know it, that's just plain wrong. McCain is their best shot at winning it, all of the reasons that extreme conservatives hate him will help him in a general election because he'll appeal to independents more for that reason. Also the latest general election match up polls show Obama with a slim 2 point lead over McCain, and McCain with a 4 point lead over Hillary, hardly the numbers you'd see in an election where one party has it in the bag.

I know it may seem early for me to be saying this, but I've had a dreadful fear for over a year that 2008 will be remembered either as the year the democrats screwed up REALLY badly by nominating the wrong person (Hillary in my mind), or as the year that the republicans pulled off a stunning Harry Truman style 1948 victory (where Truman not only won an election in which he was almost universally regarded as unelectable in a general election, and where the media also pushed the story that it was a lock for the GOP to win the White House, with two other democrats on the ticket at that. At the same time the democrats also took back both the house and senate when Truman painted the GOP controlled congress as a do nothing congress, can you name a single accomplishment of the democratic controlled congress today other then not being another Bush rubber stamp congress?).