Reply #26: Winning "Red States"

[mohc]

I do not think many are saying that Obama is going to win all these red states that he is winning. What it shows, in my opinion, is his ability to win over swing voters. In blue states, a democrat can win the primary solely by winning over base support, as the base is large. In red and purple states, the base is not as big, and swing voters play a much bigger role in winning the primary. It is next to impossible to win the Democratic nomination without winning a sizable portion of the base, which Obama has done. The argument that Clinton has won a small margin over Obama among the base is not a very convincing argument to me as to his deserving the nomination or not. Most of Clinton or Obama's base support would transfer over to the other in a general election. In other words, the margin is close enough to show that Clinton maybe slightly preferred by the base, but Obama is certainly not being rejected. On the other hand, Obama is dominating Clinton among non-base support, the very support that we will need to beat the Republicans in November. He has done this by winning swing voters, some cross-over Republicans, and most importantly by broadening the voting pool by bringing in new voters. The likelihood of full transfer of these voters in the general election from Obama to Clinton is not particularly high. Regardless, at the end of the day Democrats in red states are still Democrats, and their votes must have the same weight as those in blue states. Red states have fewer Democrats ergo they have fewer delegates to the convention, and that is where blue states get their greater influence. If Obama can put together large wins in the red states while keeping the blue states split small, there really is no good argument against him winning the nomination.