Reply #1: good piece, but I don't quite agree with you on

[cali]

McCain. I disagree that he's in the catbird seat. I think the NYT story is important. Not because of the sex thing, but because it peels away the upright, maverick facade, and gives the dems a clear path for attacking him on his strength- character. In addition, I still firmly believe that a number of social conservative simply will sit it out. And he can't keep veering recklessly to the right in the general. That's simply not an option for him. Furthermore, he has other, more amorphous weaknesses- his age, his health, his temper. He's flip flopped on one issue after another as well. I see him as far less formidable than you do. And he's not good on the stump or in debates. Yeah, he's got weaknesses to exploit, including nothing close to Obama's ground game. (Yes, I think Obama will be our nominee) We've finally caught up with and surpassed the GOP GOTV. So though much of the party may coalesce behind McCain, it won't be with enthusiams and significant numbers may not join in.

Obama and Clinton have both been going after McCaine, and I expect that to amplify in the coming days. In the meantime, I don't think the NYT story is over yet. We'll see in the next few days.

And sorry, I disagree that the attitude on DU is reflective in the real world. It's certainly not what I see, and it's not reflected in polls and analysis which consistently say that 80% of dems are excited about both candidates.