Reply #10: No, but 65 - 35 would not be +7

[mohc]

Delegates are allocated at each level, not all at once. Vermont has 15 delegates, 10 district level, 3 at-large, and 2 PLEO. The district delegates would be allocated 6-4 or 7-3 for Obama, depending on he is above or below exactly 65% (6.51 would round up to 7 but 6.49 would round down to 6). The 3 at-large will split 2-1 for Obama, no matter how bad Clinton does as long she stays above 15%. Similarly, the 2 PLEO will split 1-1 unless Clinton falls below 15%. So 65-35 will result in 9-6 or 10-5 delegate split depending on if Obama is above or below 65%. In order to make the split 11-4 Obama would need to win 76-24 or so, which I doubt would happen. Another 10% would make it 86-14, at which point Obama would win all 15 delegates. My guess is that Obama will win something like 64-36, and the delegate split will be 9-6.