Reply #12: I've been ALL OVER that counter in the last week

[XemaSab]

And the numbers are NOT THERE for her at all.

I gave Obama a conservative 55% in Oregon, SD, Montana, and NC (even though I suspect he could pull 60+ in any of those states).

That leaves her with Pennsylvania, Guam, Indiana, WV, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico to make up 147 points.

Some of these states I think she will win, and some I really have no sense for. But these are the states she NEEDS to win to close Obama's lead.

All else being equal, she would have to take 78% in these 6 elections to go into the convention even with Obama.

If you factor the superdelegates into the equation, she would have to take a little over 64% in every election PLUS 64% of the superdelegates to win the nomination. She's only gotten over 60% in Arkansas so far, so the odds of this happening are very, very, very small.

(Glad to see someone else is playing with the numbers here :D )