Reply #75: The benefit of the doubt goes to Obama

[Tom Rinaldo]

Being ahead in pledged Delegates wins him that even though there is nothing in the rules that tell Super Delegates how to vote. But Obama has not won the nomination in the primaries, he hasn't been able to reach the threshold needed to do that and so there is no automatic obligation to nominate him.

If the best Hillary can do between now and the convention is win a dozen or two more pledged delegates than Obama in the remaining races, without establishing very significant momentum in the closing months of the race, that won't be a good enough reason for Super Delegates to give her the nomination. However if Hillary opens up an 8-10 point gap in almost all of the national polls over Obama by the time this is ending, if she wins all of the races she is favored to win while losing none of those and winning some of the one's that Obama was thought to be favored in, that changes things.

If Clinton is surging and Obama is fading, if the public is starting to rally toward her and away from Obama, that changes things in a scenario where they are only several percentage points apart in pledged delegates they each won. If Clinton is very close without Florida being counted, that is a factor it is legitimate for SD's to consider. Is she shows strenths in the populations of States we need to win, that is a factor also. There are others also but I just got my dinner call, lol.