Reply #57: Obama's a great state for him

[MattNC]

NC is a great state for him. Large African American pop., growing higher educated/affluent white pop., lots of college towns.

We also don't have enough polling yet to argue with confidence that Obama's numbers having "consistently declined" in NC since he lost Ohio and Texas. PPP is the only outfit to produce more than one poll since Ohio/Texas and they've shown a move of only three points. (their sample size is also a little on the low side) Still...in reality, she probably has picked up a little steam here, but nothing to suggest she's going to win the state. Obama's in Fayetteville and Charlotte today, and we don't have any polling yet since his latest Wright speech. We'll certainly have a better picture of the race with new polls after that.

As for winning PA translating into a win in NC, who knows? If she wins by 15-20 points there, yeah, it'll help her a great deal probably. If it's less than that and Obama succeeds in downplaying the state's significance in the coming week, it may not matter at all.