Reply #18: 12 isn't enough.

[backscatter712]

Even back in Ohio and Texas, she needed to win both states by landslides, but didn't.

The margin of victory would have to be pretty damned extreme just for Hillary to put a dent in Obama's delegate lead.

12 isn't enough to do that - she'll have to win by at least 30 points to reduce the delegate lead and reclaim some media buzz. If she can't pull that off, she's toast.

When Oregon and Kentucky have their contests on May 20th, that's when Obama will cross the magic threshold of 1627 pledged delegates, thus claiming the majority and making it mathematically impossible for Hillary to catch up. I highly doubt that Hillary will be able to convince the superdelegates to override that - in fact, that's probably when they'll jump to Obama en-masse - none of the superdelegates wants to be number 2025 when it takes 2024 for a victory.