Reply #48: A more thorough simplification and answer

[bhikkhu]

Q: How can Obama win the general election against McCain in November?

A: By winning the most electoral votes. Look at http://electoral-vote.com/ for current projections, but be warned - it varies wildly from one day to another.

(* Point: In spite of the fact that the Democrat/Republican divide in the United States breaks out at a virtual 50/50 tie, the disparity breaks out somewhat differently racially. According to the 2006 U.S. Census Bureau*, the United States consists of 80.1% white persons and 12.8% black persons. Obama has been winning 92% of the black vote, but that is 92% of 12.8% of the population at most. Obama won my state of Utah, but come November, Utah will go to the Republicans. That's a fact.

* Rebuttal: 92% of a demographic isn't bad. It reduces the percentage he needs of other demographics. And sorry to hear about Utah.)

Q: So, how does this work? I keep hearing about "the math." Could someone please 'splain it to me? Personally, I believe that Obama is the wrong candidate at the wrong time. I don't believe he can win against McCain in November. I DO believe that Hillary Clinton CAN win against McCain in November.

A: The Democratic Party selects its presidential candidate by a series of primaries and/or caucuses in each state. Delegates are awarded to candidates according to the rules of each state party, and generally proportional to their popular support. Obama has won a sufficient number of delegates to more or less guarantees his nomination, according to the rules. As for how he can win against McCain, that is answered above.

Q: So why would the so called 'Super Delegates' hand this nomination to Obama when the numbers are so egregiously stacked against him?

A: Because he will have a majority of delegates sufficient to make him our nominee. SD's are mostly elected officials with constituencies to represent; the majority of constituencies have chosen Obama as their nominee.

Q: Can anyone explain how Obama can win in November when the United States is over 80% white, considering the racial bent of these elections so far? Oh, and another thing - more that 50% of the United States is female.

A: Sometimes white people vote for candidates who aren't white. Sometimes women vote for candidates who aren't women.

( * Aside: Here in Utah, people believe that Obama is a Communist. That is a new one on me, but I heard it first hand this past Saturday night while talking politics to the unwashed masses at the local watering holes. Not only aren't they voting for Obama, but they actually prefer McCain over Hillary. This in typically Democrat strongholds like gay bars. Seriously, I'll don my flamesuit and await your thoughtful replies.

* Rebuttal: Ummm...I don't think most people worry about communism much anymore. Perhaps Utah is different - particularly if its gay bars are also its Democratic strongholds.)

(* Point: This presidential race has been reduced to one of racial divide. That's unfortunate but true. So, from a strictly racial perspective, of the 12.8% black populace, a disproportionate number of those people (mostly males) are in prison. Don't kill the messenger, I'm only stating facts. Racially speaking, the percentage of blacks to whites in America's prisons is ridiculously slanted toward blacks. (A topic for a completely separate discussion on another day.) Something like 44% to 35%. "Although blacks account for only 12 percent of the U.S. population, 44 percent of all prisoners in the United States are black"**

* Rebuttal: Prisoners don't get to vote. So if your point is that most blacks vote for Obama and most blacks are in prison...I can see how that would be a disadvantage. I think it can be overcome by the popular support of the non-imprisoned. The primaries are a good example. )

(snip)

Q: "Super Delegates should pick the winner"... How does Obama possibly fill that bill?

A: First, by winning the most delegates, then by winning the popular vote, then by winning the support of the majority of the constituencies that SD's are committed to represent.

I hope this helps.