Reply #7: Pretty much

[Fovea]

and a gradual disengagement from military presence, which in the Pacific will increase tension and require large scale re-arming by the Japanese.

How we deal with their becoming a nuclear power will be a burning question of the Obama II admin.
By that time, we should be around 75% energy independent.

How do you say no to an ally facing down China and NK in their own region, and who are the only nation ever to have atomic weapons used against them?

Then, Russia will want to exert more influence in the Region, and run into China and India, both of which exert a checkmate potential.

We will be very busy retooling our industrial base around lower petroleum consumption. Over the road trucking will drastically curtail. Rail will be the new Interstate
system, and will use the same RoW to save acquisition costs. Pickens will get his way, and the transition will be supplimented by the overly expensive (in kyoto terms) natural gas.

The big insurance giants will go down, and then state insurance oversight will be federalized. That may or may not work.
The likelihood of our having more than sentimental influence in the world in the next decade will be dependent on
how successfully we adapt to a lower usage of natu7ral gas for ammonia and how well we meet the hydrodynamic of the new global climate..