Reply #22: I'd be shocked if California doesn't gain EVs.

[Drunken Irishman]

The funny thing is, a few years ago all the talk about the Democratic strongholds in the northeast losing voters proved the demise of the Democratic Party (or so they said), except what they didn't realize is that all those Democrats were moving to southern & western states, bringing them more into the mainstream. That's a big reason why the Republicans are in trouble, because the movement is shifting the political foundation in many of these once conservative states.

I mean, back in the 60s, 70s and 80s, the west was dominated by libertarian Republicans and they rarely went Democratic (even California, at least nationally).

Kennedy only carried one western state in 1960 (Nevada).

LBJ carried a boatload, but most of that was because he won in a landslide over a candidate who was painted as an extremist.

Humphrey managed to carry one western state in 1968 (Washington).

McGovern carried zero western states in 1972.

Carter carried zero western states in 1976.

Carter carried zero western states in 1980.

Mondale carried zero western states in 1984.

Dukakis carried only two western states in 1988 (Oregon and Washington).

Clinton carried seven western states, including California (the first Democrat since LBJ) in 1992.

Clinton carried six western states in 1996.

Gore carried four western states in 2000.

Kerry carried three western states in 2004.

Obama carried six western states in 2008.

What you saw in 1992 was a fundamental change in the western voting patterns. California, which had been a swing state that leaned Republican, solidly went Democratic and it hasn't looked back. Washington and Oregon were the first signs of the Republican hold on the west weakening, as Dukakis managed to carry both in 1988, even though Bush I won in a landslide.

Even after Clinton's second term win, the Democrats still had a healthy margin, especially in the bigger states and the states they lost, all were by narrow margins. You could see what Obama did in the west last year coming from a mile away, since Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico were on the cusp of shifting.

My prediction:

New Mexico will solidify itself as a strong Democratic state in 2012. Colorado & Nevada will be on the cusp, but might still be contested (Colorado more so than Nevada).

If that happens, it's hard to see a map that favors the Republicans. I mean, John McCain was a westerner and he could still swing only 25 electoral votes out of the west. Obama? 92.