Reply #36: The first two years of a presidency are the most crucial for legislation

[Hippo_Tron]

It's harder to get things done after 2010 because you are simultaneously trying to govern and run for re-election. And after 2012 it's also harder because you generally don't get much of a honeymoon in your second term. LBJ was kind of an exception to that rule, but he was elected for the first time in '64 rather than re-elected and Kennedy's death gave him an additional honeymoon.

Specter's present value to Obama is far greater than the future value of a more liberal Senator. Pennsylvania can get a new Senator in six years anyway as Specter is unlikely to serve more than one more term.