Reply #22: states with pro-B* changes relative to 2000

[seaclyr]

In the list below, states are ranked in order of vote gain for B* relative to Kerry, compared to B*-Gore in 2000.

In other words, B*vote gain = (B* votes - Kerry votes)(2004) minus (B* votes - Gore votes)(2000);
also, B*%gain = (B*% - Kerry%)(2004) minus (B*% - Gore%)2000;
and "actual" - exit = (B*% - Kerry%)("actual") minus (B*% - Kerry%)(from exit polls)



State, B*vote gain, B*%gain, "actual" - exit

1. FL, 380700, 5.01, 6
   
2. NY, 352000, 6.69, 7.6
   
3. TX, 328100, 1.55, -2.8
   
4. TN, 267500, 9.4, -3
   
5. NJ, 264000, 9.16, 3
   
6. GA, 243900, 4.91, 3.2
   
7. AL, 233000, 10.7, 8
   
8. OK, 185000, 9.26, 2
   
9. IN, 167000, 5.04, 3.2
   
10. LA, 146000, 6.83, 4.2
    
11. KY, 125000, 4.73, 2
    
12. MO, 118300, 3.88, 3
    
13. AZ, 114000, 4.18, 5.2
    
14. UT, 113500, 5.05, 5.8
    
15. CT, 91400, 7.11, 6.8
    
16. KS, 79400, 4.58, -4.8
    
17. CA, 64200, 1.85, -3.2
    
18. NC, 62100, -0.39, 8
    
19. PA, 61600, 1.69, 6.6
    
20. MS, 58500, 3.05, 6.6
    
21. SC, 56400, 1.16, 9.2
    
22. NE, 56200, 4.22, 8.8
    
23. WV, 56100, 6.51, 2.6
    
24. MI, 54800, 1.78, 2
    
25. AR, 53100, 4.3, 2.2
    
26. VA, 42400, 0.17, 5
    
27. MD, 33500, 3.95, 0.8
    
28. RI, 28200, 8.83, 6.8
    
29. IA, 15300, 0.99, 2.4
    
30. DE, 14300, 5.46, 10
    
31. SD, 11400, -1.27, -3.2
    
32. WY, 10200, -0.27, 2.6
    
33. NM, 6300, 0.85, 3.6
    
34. ND, 6100, -0.25, 4.8
    
35. MA, 4900, 2.14, 6.8
    
36. HI, 3000, 9.58, -2.4
    
37. ID, 2900, -1.41, 5.8
    
38. IL, 2400, 1.68, 4
    
39. NV, 0, -0.95, 1.8
    
40. WI, -5700, -0.16, 4
    
41. MT, -10900, -4.58, 0
    
42. NH, -16500, -2.64, 9.8
    
43. DC, -28100, -3.63, 0.2
    
44. ME, -32800, -3.87, 1.4
    
45. VT, -33600, -10.21, 9.6
    
46. MN, -39700, -1.07, 6
    
47. CO, -46000, -3.69, 3.2
    
48. OH, -46400, -1.39, 6.2
    
49. WA, -66100, -1.61, 2.8
    
50. OR, -69800, -3.72, -1.6
    

Numbers were calculated from data in uselectionatlas.org as of about 1/1/05 and typically were rounded to 3 significant figures. They may not be based on the most up to date data and I can't swear that there isn't a mistake here and there (I didn't check all the math that closely). There could easily be better, more accurate lists out there that I've missed. Nevertheless, the above list should provide a good rough indication of where extra B* votes came from, state by state.
on edit: I believe I omitted Alaska, sorry! I'll include later