Reply #11: 580,000 NY late votes; analysis of incidents, county size, Urban Legend…and a response

[WillE]

Are you serious about the NY late votes? I thought it was understood that the early and late Dem vote shares referred to Gore, Kerry and Obama.
The 2008 national late (10 million) vote timeline is shown below. There was a 6.9% difference in Obama’s Election Day share (52.3%) and his late share (59.2%).
In NY State, there was an 8.7% difference in Obama’s Election Day (Lever) share (62.0%) and his late (paper ballot) share (70.7%).
Do you believe the Recorded Vote Count was correct in the largest 15 NY counties? And that Bush improved his 2000 vote by 75% in Brooklyn while Kerry improved by just 5% over Gore?

These are the Bush percentage vote gains in the largest 15 NY counties.


There was a strong 0.61 correlation between Bush percentage vote gain and county size.


There was a strong 0.55 correlation between county voting machine incidents and increase in Bush vote share from 2000.

You don’t believe that the Urban Legend applies in NY?

- Explain why there was a strong 0.61 CORRELATION between NY County population size and corresponding Bush percentage gain from 2000 to 2004. You must also believe the correlation since it is based on the recorded vote – and you believe the recorded vote.

- Explain why NYC had 89% of the 175 REPORTED voting machine INCIDENTS and only 37% of the 5703 state precincts.

- Explain why there was a strong 0.55 correlation between county voting machine incidents and increase in Bush vote share from 2000.

If you believe that the correlations are significant then you must also believe the Urban Legend. Remember, this is an analysis of the RECORDED votes; it has nothing to do with the exit polls.

Do you see where this is going? Let’s put it another way.

If you believe the strong (0.61) NY county size/ Bush vote change correlation, then you must also believe the Urban Legend that Bush improved sharply from 2000 to 2004 in Democratic urban/suburban areas while he lost share in Republican rural areas and small towns. But it’s a dilemma – a Hobson’s choice.

If you believe the Urban Legend correlation based on the recorded vote, then you cannot at the same time believe the recorded vote was correct. You are caught in a logical contradiction. You cannot have it both ways. And if you believe the Urban Legend (i.e. the 0.61 correlation) then you would also have to admit that votes cast on Election Day (on Levers) were miscounted.

But late votes (provisional, absentee, etc.) cast on PAPER BALLOTS were counted accurately; the election was over and Bush had already padded his NY vote share. So which do you believe: The NY Recorded vote or the Urban Legend?

You claim that the late NY exit polls (Kerry had 64%) were incorrect. But then you MUST believe the Final NY exit poll since it was FORCED to match the recorded vote (Kerry had 58.4%).

Kerry’s Late NY vote share (66%) was within 1-2% of the exit poll timeline (unadjusted, GEO, Composite) until it was reduced from 64% to 58.5% in the Final Exit Poll.

The evidence indicates that the NY exit poll timeline prior to the Final was correct.
You believe the Final even knowing that it was forced to MATCH the recorded vote.

I assume that you also disbelieve the preliminary exit polls in all the other states as well.
And that Bush really DID win by his official 3.0 million vote margin.

Or do you believe that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky were wrong in NY but correct everywhere else?

2008 Late Vote Timeline (in millions)
National
2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
11/4 121.21 63.44 56.13 1.64 52.34% 46.31% 1.35%
Late 2.93 1.73 1.16 0.03 59.17% 39.66% 1.17%

11/11 124.13 65.18 57.29 1.67 52.50% 46.15% 1.35%
Late 2.37 1.40 0.92 0.05 59.20% 38.73% 2.07%

11/12 126.50 66.58 58.20 1.72 52.63% 46.01% 1.36%
Late 0.75 0.45 0.28 0.02 60.38% 36.71% 2.91%

11/17 127.25 67.03 58.48 1.74 52.68% 45.96% 1.37%
Late 0.86 0.53 0.28 0.05 61.88% 32.54% 5.57%

11/21 128.11 67.56 58.76 1.79 52.74% 45.87% 1.40%
Late 1.09 0.59 0.45 0.06 53.65% 41.23% 5.11%

11/30 129.20 68.15 59.21 1.84 52.75% 45.83% 1.43%
Late 2.17 1.31 0.73 0.13 60.38% 33.50% 6.12%

12/18 131.37 69.457 59.935 1.978 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%

Late 10.163 6.013 3.809 0.342 59.16% 37.48% 3.36%

New York
Total 7.59 4.77 2.74 0.08 62.8 36.1 1.1

11/4 7.01 4.36 2.58 0.06 62.0% 36.8% 0.9%
12/18 0.58 0.41 0.16 0.02 70.7% 28.9% 0.4%

A typical 2500 respondent exit poll has a 2% margin of error has. Consider the 580,000 late 2008 NY votes as a BIG FAT PAPER BALLOT poll sample.

What is the probability that Obama’s share of the 580,000 late PAPER BALLOT votes would be 10% greater than his share of the first 7 million LEVER votes cast on Election Day? Do you have a PLAUSIBLE explanation?

I will now respond to your comments.

1) It's not about the exit polls; it's about the voting system.

No, it’s about the EVIDENCE. The exit polls represent evidence that you cavalierly want to dismiss.

2) You are the one who is unresponsive. You can't explain how the votes were switched by the voting system. You don't even TRY to. Until you can do that, your "evidence" means nothing

No, the onus is not on ME to conjecture HOW or WHY the massive discrepancies occurred. It is on YOU to acknowledge that the discrepancies listed ALL raise very RED flags. They should concern you. But you appear loathe to consider the weight of ALL the evidence – especially since it indicates that thousands of votes were uncounted and miscounted. And let’s not forget those kept from voting due to malfunctioning machines or long lines.

3) See if you can understand this:
Even if the exit polls were spot on, if software was used to count the votes, I would NOT trust the election results, or the exit polls. But there was no software used to count votes at the precincts in NY. There were lever machines -- which are in fact the only true voting machines, designed to do one and only one thing: Count the votes as cast.

No, I don’t understand why you don’t trust the NY exit poll. You trusted it when Richard Hayes Phillips cited the CNN NY exit poll as evidence in his “defense” of the Levers. He was apparently unaware that the Final was FORCED to match the recorded vote. And that Kerry had 64-65% up to and including the 12:40am Composite timeline. But now you claim that you don’t trust the exit polls. Quite disingenuous, that.

Did Mitofsky have it in for NY when he claimed that LEVER voting machine precincts had an average 11% WPE? And there is NO transparency. Where is the proof that the votes were COUNTED correctly? Who transcribed the Lever results to paper? How was the re-canvassing done in order to “fix” Obama’s votes in Harlem from the original ZERO count?

4) The question is:
Can the voting system switch votes, or not? In NY, it can't, so you'll need another explanation for why your exit polls were off. I don't have a dog in the exit poll fight, except when people say they are more accurate than a non-computerized voting system with a low undervote rate that can't switch votes and does not even permit overvotes. That's the argument you're making and it doesn't hold water, no matter what the polls say.

I have provided evidence that the Democratic candidates from 2000, 2004 and 2008, did 10% better in PAPER BALLOT LATE VOTES than they did on LEVER votes cast on Election Day. There were a total of 1.5 MILLION late votes in the three elections out of approximately 22 million total. That is quite a significant number.


5) NY is about to go down the crapper when it comes to election integrity and all you can do is spout bullshit about exit polls?

I suppose, therefore, that you believe Bush really did win after all since the “bullshit” exit polls indicated that Kerry won.

6) If you don't like levers, what are you pushing to replace them?
Hand-counted paper ballots are not an option for NY. We don't have enough poll workers to count them. There won't even be 100% hand counts in the 2009 "pilot" elections using uncertified optical scanners for the first time. And that's only 15% of the registered voters in the state. Far too many votes to put at risk in a "pilot", but it shows that NY election officials are determined to avoid hand counting at any cost -- including the cost of voter disenfranchisement.

There are 8 MILLION people in NYC and you can’t find enough poll workers? What makes you say that? That’s a VERY LAME argument. What is the REAL reason that NY election officials “are determined to avoid hand counting at any cost”?

7) So, what the switch to paper ballots really means is that the votes will be counted by computers with only a 3% spot check and no possibility of a recount, except in the courts. And how will anyone know they should even ASK for such a recount? Where will they get the money to pay for it, and to pay the election lawyers? See: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

You should devote your considerable energy to FIGHT for hand-counted paper ballots.

8) "Sore loser" candidates will NOT be going to court to convince judges that computers can't be trusted. They never do. So the answer is not to allow the computers to count the votes in the first place. (For the sake of brevity, I won't get into the inherent risks of recounting paper ballots post-election, but you can bet a court will do so before granting what appears to be a frivolous recount request!)

Do you mean sore losers like Al Gore? And now you are trying to convince us that counting paper ballots is “risky”? I seem to recall that’s what Bush’s lawyers said in 2000 in Florida!

9) If you have something to say about HOW the machines could have possibly been hacked to the extent your numbers suggest, then SAY SO. If not, go away.

No, I won’t go away. Why should I? I just became a member. As Al Gore told Bush when Bush asked him if he was going to concede: “Don’t get snippy”. You are being snippy.

I don’t have to explain HOW the machines could have miscounted. The onus is on YOU to explain WHY you ignore Kerry’s 64% exit poll; 11% lever WPE; 10% higher Gore, Kerry and Obama late vote shares; stolen 2000 and 2004 elections; Urban Legend, etc.

The evidence is overwhelming that the NY votes were miscounted. Just like they were in all the DEEP BLUE and Battleground states.

You are unable to PROVE that the votes have been accurately counted and yet you are giving up the fight for full transparency using HAND-COUNTED PAPER BALLOTS.

The problem is that you will not admit that there is a problem.