Reply #21: I don't think it was 'Iran' in that it was not a operation directed by Tehran

[Strelnikov_]

I agree with Juan Cole that it was probably a local Guards commander going off-script.

Considering their 'navy', like ours, is mostly young men, I think the radio message could well have been some poorly commanded young sailor shooting off his mouth. We are talking about the IRGC, after all.

http://www.juancole.com/

Iran IRGC Ships confront US Navy

That the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps coast guard would play chicken with the US Navy is not that surprising. Enemies at sea often taunt one another, and I think there were similar feints by Soviet subs in the old days. (A kind reader pointed out that it even happened more recently with China.)

What is harder to understand is the Iranian government explanation, which was that the IRGC did not recognize the US naval ships as such. That isn't plausible, and besides, what other naval ships would the IRGC have a problem with?

It is the kind of explanation you would give when your nerdy crazy second cousin threatened to beat up a guest twice his size at your cocktail party. I.e., I don't think the incident was ordered from Tehran, but was some gung-ho local IRGC commander who'd been at sea way too long. I presume they thought the US was in Iranian waters (and the Iranians claim more offshore territory than the standard in international law).

Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei recently said that while it wasn't desirable right at the moment, Iranian diplomatic relations with the US in the future were not out of the question. So if anything the top leadership has been trying to ratchet down the tensions.


He does include a link to a counter point.

Farideh Farhi weighs in on the issue of the Iranian gunboats making a run at US naval ships. She feels that if the radio intercepts were accurate, it is highly unlikely that these were local units acting alone-- as I had suggested.

http://icga.blogspot.com/2008/01/irans-unduly-provocative-act-against-us.html