Reply #7: No he won't, but I think I understand your thinking.

[lvx35]

You're thinking if McCain can draw independants away from Obama, and Obama gets more independants than Hillary, we are screwed because we've lost all the independants. Its a little more complex than that, because its not just about how wide your appeal is, its about how deep. Basically McCain de-energizes the republican base to some extent. Obama doesn't yet de-energize us, but his bubble will burst when all the progressives realize he's the choice of so many conservative independants with some corporate support. The bursting of the Obama bubble manifests as some uncertainty, which is the key word here. Scary stuff starts happening in the world and we've all got a little uncertainty about Obama...Meanwhile, he's running against a time tested war veteran with vast experience. Obama loses all independant support with a de-energized base. McCain wins.
With Hillary it goes down differently, because the one thing we don't have is uncertainty, we have a strong idea about what we are getting, another Clintonesque presidency. We know we can trust that, and we've covered the achilles heal that McCain needs, uncertainty.