Oil rally may be economy's undoing

[UpInArms]

Source: Associated Press

NEW YORK - Preoccupied the last few months with shrinking credit and a slumping economy, Wall Street has all but ignored the relentless rise in oil prices that has taken a barrel of crude to a once-unthinkable $106.

But the market may not be able to look the other way much longer — especially when consumers, already hurting from the soaring cost of gasoline, find themselves paying even more to fill their tanks come spring.

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Should the central bank cut rates at its March 18 meeting, which is widely expected, that move could also further weaken the dollar — and possibly keep the cycle of rising oil prices going.

Then there is the problem of an even greater impact on the consumer — whose growing hesitation about spending has been reflected in weak retail sales, even during the holiday season. What happens as gasoline prices in particular increase? The fear is that Americans, forced to pay more money for gasoline and overwhelmed by other economic issues, will continue to hunker down.

"The U.S. consumer, who has carried the economy for the past half-dozen years, is in full defensive mode, battered by falling housing values, spiking food and energy prices, tightening lending standards, the teetering stock market and hints of weakening in the labor market," said T.J. Marta, economic and fixed income strategist for RBC Capital Markets.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wall___main