Reply #3: exactly

[alc]

Reasonable premium is "cost + X% profit margin". We can argue about reasonable profit margin (2%,5%, 10%,?) but cost is the overriding factor and the health insurance bill hardly addressed that all.

Number & composition of insurance pools is also a factor (changes the cost of your pool). The bill does address that, but mainly by reducing the # of pools and adding healthy people to pools which increases healthy people's premiums. So a reasonable premium increase will include that and if you are healthy your insurance will go up.

It's still to be determined what a policy must cover and any limits on co-pays and deductibles. Depending on your policy, there could be a huge increase if some things are changed. My policy more than doubled when I went from high co-pay, high deductible to lower of each a few years ago.