Reply #7: 1978: Democrats retained control of House and Senate, then Carter lost; 1994: Democrats lost both,

[pampango]

then Clinton won. Democrats lost 15 House seats in 1978 (resulting in 277 D, 158 R) and 3 Senate seats (resulting in 58 D, 42 R). Then in 1980 Carter got defeated soundly 50.7% to 41.0%.

In 1994 Democrats lost 54 House seats (resulting in 230 R, 204 D) and 8 Senate seats (resulting in 52 R, 48 D). Clinton got reelected 49.2% to 40.7% in 1996.

Obviously there are many variable in any comparison like this, but you could make the argument that retaining control of Congress in the mid-term election is not the best thing (nor losing control the worst thing) for a Democratic president's reelection chances. (Of course, it is hard for any normal Democrat to wish for a "Speaker Boehner". :) )

Carter retained both houses of Congress in 1978, while Clinton lost both in 1994, then the repubs overplayed their hand and Clinton won reelection. If Obama loses control of the House, but retains the Senate I wonder how that would affect his chances in 2012? Will the repubs in the House be so obnoxious and ineffective that they prove repubs can't govern as they did in 1996?