Reply #3: The trend is certainly downward

[gristy]

And a contraction in GDP for 1Q 08 looks to be in the cards. Negative GDP growth 2 quarters in a row = recession.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2007 (ADVANCE)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real
GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The fourth-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be
released on February 28, 2008.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential structures, state and local government
spending, exports, and equipment and software that were largely offset by negative contributions from
private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased slightly.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in
inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in federal government spending that
were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and an acceleration in state and local government
spending.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth in real
GDP after contributing 0.28 percentage point to the third-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output
subtracted 0.90 percentage point from the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.36
percentage point to the third-quarter growth.