Reply #9: It might be more likely that there is a strong correlation between being a blue

[karynnj]

dog and being from a red or purple district. Now, if the list of blue dogs includes as many (or more) in blue areas, I will take back my comment.

I think the reason there are so many Democrats in the House at risk is that in 2006 and 2008, we won many seats that no one thought were winnable. These are now representatives with either 2 years or 4 years experience. For those in normally red or purple areas, only if they have established very strong personal ties with the voters will they have a good chance of surviving.

In addition, they are moving to a likely voter model that appears to have built in very hig expectations of Republican turn out and low Democratic turnout. This is coming both from the way the voters respond, but it also is partly conventional wisdom. What it does say is that Democrats need to be positive and get people out. The polls include the assumption of mediocre Democratic turn out - and we can change that. It also assumes very high Republican turnout, which in some special elections did not happen.