German jobless rate at new record (12.6%)

[tritsofme]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4307303.stm

More than 5.2 million Germans were out of work in February, new figures show.
The figure of 5.216 million people, or 12.6% of the working-age population, is the highest jobless rate in Europe's biggest economy since the 1930s.

The news comes as the head of Germany's panel of government economic advisers predicted growth would again stagnate.

Speaking on German TV, Bert Ruerup said the panel's earlier forecast of 1.4% was too optimistic and warned growth would be just 1% in 2005.

Anger

The German government is trying to tackle the stubbornly-high levels of joblessness with a range of labour market reforms.

<SNIP>

This with a US unemployment rate of 5.2%, even the broadest measure of UE being 9.2%, I think the dollar will correct its position against euro substantially this year.

[gottaB]

1. Link to bbc article

German jobless rate at new record

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

2. Yes, but

I'd rather be jobless in Germany than jobless in the U.S. There are many more social protections in Germany than in the U.S. (health care coming to mind).

I think percentages are totally meaningless without taking into account other factors. If I'm jobless here in the U.S. and I get sick, I'm basically ruined. Not so in Germany.

[Demeter]

3. Besides, the American Unemployment Numbers Are Lies

We haven't had an honest accounting of US Unemployment since Clinton.

[Eurobabe]

14. totally true

any figures put out by this administration are Enron'ed.

[gottaB]

4. It's still a very high rate and will lead to strife

It's nominally worse than the national unemployment rate for Black men in the US--although there's a lot of fudging of the numbers.

Official US stats: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

[Spinoza]

24. I'd also rather be jobless

in Germany than jobless in the U.S. However, according to the statistics you are nearly 3 TIMES more likely to be jobless in Germany than jobless in the U.S. I wouldn't like that. My son just got a crappy job, but it is sure better than no job. (Even no job with good benefits.)

[brindis_desala]

5. Comparing U.S. unemployment rate to German jobless

is misleading. In the good old bootstraps USA we don't bother to count the long-term unemployed we just wait for them to starve or get desperate so they either die or go to jail. Part-time and seasonal workers who don't earn nearly a living wage are also counted as fully employed; even those working one day a week. The government figures are just bogus. Economists calculate the true jobless rate to be at least double the official figure touted in the USA.

[J. Hill]

6. US Employment Statistics

"Economists calculate the true jobless rate to be at least double the official figure touted in the USA."

I've heard that that was the case but haven't been able to verify it. Do you know where I can find a substantive illustration of the problems with US statistics?

[brindis_desala]

11. It pretty simple once you realize how they arrive at the numbers

"in the rest of the world, reporting oneself as unemployed leads to unemployment benefits, but in the United States only one-third of those who are officially unemployed unemployment insurance..\.."

The above is a fairly accurate if slightly sweeping statement from a very good article on the subject:
http://www.timesizing.com/2uedefns.htm

[robcon]

7. Not true

Your statement, brindi_desala, that "we don't bother to count the long-term unemployed" is untrue. Every unemployed person is counted.

You may be confusing the fact that unemployment insurance runs out on these long-term unemployed. But the BLS counts everyone who is unemployed, whether they qualify for unemployment insurance or not.

[gottaB]

8. I think the argument concerns the rubric "Not in labor force"

In the latest bls survey:

Persons Not in the Labor Force

There were 1.8 million persons who were marginally attached to the labor force in January, about unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, at 515,000 in January, was slightly higher than a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. The other 1.3 million marginally attached had not searched for work for reasons such as school or family responsibilities.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

See David Streitfeld's Jobless Count Skips Millions.

[tritsofme]

15. Figures are available however that show differing measures of unemployment

You can see it here:
http://bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm

[brindis_desala]

9. Think again, they fudge the figures.

This quote from Janet Norwood (former BLS Commissioner) contradicts your assertion that "the BLS counts everyone who is unemployed."

"As the economy expands, many who have left the labor force during the recessionary period think that jobs are now available and so they decide to look for work. This labor force increase, of course, makes it harder to reduce the jobless rate because so many more people are in the labor force looking for a job."

Again, the article was erroneously comparing US unemployment figures to German and EU jobless rates.

[Tsiyu]

10. And where do I report my unemployment, friend?

Please let me know. I haven't applied for unemployment insurance, so how the hell do they know?

Telepathy?

The Patriot Act?

Jeebus?

[tritsofme]

13. You don't report anything

It is determined through the Household Survey, a very scientific telephone survey of 20,000 households.

This gives a much more accurate monthly picture of the UE rate than could ever be accomplished by interviewing every single person.

[Tsiyu]

19. My family does marketing research for a living

Sure. Real Accurate.

I'm sure.

[Career Prole]

23. "It is determined through the Household Survey"...the fallback position

for republicans everywhere.
When the other numbers go to shit they never fail to trot out the ol' household survey, which invariably paints a glossier picture.

[robcon]

20. The unemployment survey is a database of 40,000 people

It's a survey/poll, and has been for decades.

[Career Prole]

22. That statement makes this pronouncement misleading then, no?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1274090#1274202

[rinsd]

18. So Germany is STILL higher.....(nt)

[tom_paine]

12. God Help us all if Germany goes BushPutinist

Though I doubt they will, if only because their experiences with Totalitarianism were so powerful, their memories will echo long after Imperial Amerikan and BushPutinist Russia have embraced Kinder and Gentler versions of what they experienced.

What a role reversal! Amerika as the New Kinder and Gentler Nazi Germany and Germany carrying the Banner of the Ever-Shrinking Free World.

But if Germany reverts to BushPutinist Ways, it is just another step on the road to Totalitarian Darkness.

We NEED Germany and the rest of the Free World if Amerika is to ever have the slightest hope of being free again.

[Tektonik]

16. Can unification still be used as an excuse?

Has the West yet to fully reabsorb the poor East?

[Almost_there]

17. How is Germany's U/R determined?

I do know that the US figures are determined numerous ways, the overall unemployement rate (5.2%) is determined through a weekly & monthly phone survey conducted of households, so, it is relatively accurate, and does take into account long term unemployed, part time, seasonal, layoffs, etc. The true weekly unemployment figures touted by Wall Street are for first time, repeat and seasonal layoffs and filers for unemployment benefits, which is a hard, fast number, they typically anticipate x number of filers, they have x+ or x- and that makes for a good or bad day.
I'm just curious if anyone knows the matrix on how Germany determines its unemployment figures. I know their welfare system is so much better than ours, but, what about something akin to the old WPA projects? Build a dam, guys! Make a railroad faster than France's and Japan's, BUILD something.. Get these people working! There is nothing worse than wanting to work and not being able to. I hope things there get better soon. Even the Soviet Union had their HERO Projects to get people excited, working, motivated... And unlike here with people taking McJobs, I hope that they can get real, decent, long term jobs. Back to my McJob now..

~Almost

[Mairead]

21. The US rate also completely fails to count those forced to seek

SS disability (acknowledged as a sort of covert long-term unemployment insurance available to a few) and those, like me, forced to take my old-age pension early. We're simply dropped off the edge of the statistical earth.

It was fortunate that when I was tossed onto the scrap heap (they didn't say I was 'too old', but the single characteristic common to all of us discardees was age) I only had to survive on savings for a year and a half before I could get a (permanently reduced) SS OAP.

'Too old to work, too young to die.' Lovely situation to be in.