Official: OPEC Has Reached Output Limit

[chlamor]

OPEC Has Reached Production Limit, and Trying to Expand Output Won't Lower Rates, Algerian Says

ALGIERS, Algeria Mar 12, 2005 — OPEC has reached its production limit, and trying to stretch output by one million barrels per day isn't likely to lower oil prices, Algeria's minister for energy and mines said.

Chakib Khalil said prices were high because of world economic growth particularly in the United States and China. Algeria is one of the 11 members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"OPEC has reached its production limits. It doesn't have much production capacity," he said at the opening of an industrial plant in the western town of Arzew, according to newspaper reports on Saturday.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=575211

[Blue to the bone]

1. I've been saying this for some time. It's one reason why OPEC...

...can't seem to talk down oil prices. At least on the downside, they've lost all control via threats of increased production.

[mhr]

2. Excellent Peak Oil Lecture - Dr. David Goodstein - Caltech Lecture Series

Author of "Out of Gas: The End Of The Age Of Oil"

Streaming Real Media

56K - http://today.caltech.edu/theater/5602_56k.ram

Medium Broadband - http://today.caltech.edu/theater/5602_bb.ram

Full Cable/DSL - http://today.caltech.edu/theater/5602_cable.ram

Lecture Page Link Here:
http://today.caltech.edu/theater/list?subset=science

Book Link Here:
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbnInquiry.asp?userid=My7Ct36BTj&isbn=0393058573&itm=1

His concluding prediction: Civilization will end as we know it by the end of this century!

[chlamor]

3. Don't Have to Read the Tea Leaves Here

[JohnyCanuck]

6. Seems like déja vue

Interestingly enough, in his lecture Dr. Goodstein mentioned that Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes, a geologist and lecturer at Princeton University had stated that he (Deffeyes) realized Dr. Hubbert's prediction about US oil peak was correct when he read a newspaper report in the early 70's that the Texas Railroad Commission (in charge of setting quotas and controlling oil production in Texas) stated that there were allowing 100% production. In effect, they had lost their ability to be a swing producer and control prices by adjusting oil production.


Hubbert's Peak: The Impending
World Oil Shortage

By Kenneth S. Deffeyes

27 February, 2004
Princeton Unirversity Press

An overview of the of the book "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending
World Oil Shortage" By Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis.

In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right.

Around 1995, several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to world oil production, and most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 and 2008. These analyses were reported in some of the most widely circulated sources: Nature, Science, and Scientific American.2 None of our political leaders seem to be paying attention. If the predictions are correct, there will be enormous effects on the world economy. Even the poorest nations need fuel to run irrigation pumps. The industrialized nations will be bidding against one another for the dwindling oil supply. The good news is that we will put less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The bad news is that my pickup truck has a 25-gallon tank.

<snip>

Hubbert's prediction was fully confirmed in the spring of 1971. The announcement was made publicly, but it was almost an encoded message. The San Francisco Chronicle contained this one-sentence item: "The Texas Railroad Commission announced a 100 percent allowable for next month." I went home and said, "Old Hubbert was right." It still strikes me as odd that understanding the newspaper item required knowing that the Texas Railroad Commission, many years earlier, had been assigned the task of matching oil production to demand. In essence, it was a government-sanctioned cartel. Texas oil production so dominated the industry that regulating each Texas oil well to a percentage of its capacity was enough to maintain oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was modeled after the Texas Railroad Commission.6 Just substitute Saudi Arabia for Texas.

http://www.countercurrents.org/peakoil-deffeys270204.htm

And for any DUers or lurkers interested in finding out more about this issue here are some more on line videos dealing with Peak Oil.


Professor Al Bartlett's lecture on exponential growth and resource depletion:

Apple Quick Time (MP 4)
http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

Real Player Version
http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram

Edit version of documentary End of Suburbia (24min):

Apple Quick Time (.mov)
http://911busters.com/video/IQ1_20_END_OF_SUBURBIA_VIDEO_24.2_.mov

Windows Media Player (.wmv)
http://911busters.com/video/IQ1_20_END_OF_SUBURBIA_VIDEO_24.2_.wmv

End of Suburbia is also available for rent at Netflix
http://www.netflix.com/MovieDisplay?trkid=73&movieid=70022083

[reprobate]

21. The truly fascinating thing about peak oil occurs when you ask americans.

Ask Americans about peak oil and nine out of ten will just stare blankly, and the tenth will tell you peak oil is an oil company, matter of fact he gassed up at one of their stations just yesterday.

I believe that's why most americans have no idea what the current geo-political problems are really all about. The concept of the world running out of cheap oil is as foreign to them as colonizing europa. It's also the reason that Mad King George can get away with everything he wants to. And you can blame it all on the M$M.

I don't know whether americans are naturally stupid, or they are kept that way intentionally by their government. I lean toward the second option. It's much easier to keep the people in check if you control all the information they get. Exactly what happened here.

[Blue_Tires]

34. the sad truth

I post and read a number of car nut boards, and they all believe there is enough oil to last forever...

[Robbien]

4. The cheerleader media will talk this down

just as they talk down the budget deficit and the trade deficit.

Wonder how long they can keep the circus act going with just happy talk propping up the whole mess.

[ktowntennesseedem]

7. Move along, folks. Nothing to see here.

[NNN0LHI]

5. If that is the case there is only one way left for output to go. Down n/t

[msongs]

8. This does NOT INCLUDE oil from Iraq....which is not in opec --->

all that iraqi oil will put an end to the peak oil issue for a while,
now does this not sound like a good reason for a certain politician to start a war?

Msongs

read our paper ballot proposal for CA
www.msongs.com/vvpb.htm

[Minstrel Boy]

14. Since when? Iraq is in OPEC.

http://www.opec.org/aboutus/member%20countries/iraq.htm

[shadowknows69]

26. not since we aquired it n/t

[MADem]

40. Not true. They still maintain membership in the organization

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html

Some background on OPEC, which was founded, ironically, in Baghdad in 1960.

I'll bet they'll show up in Esfahan on 16 March, which is when OPEC next meets.

[toddaa]

9. Good riddance

Seriously.

Peak Oil is going to be horrible. I know this. But not nearly as horrible as the alternative. Man has got to learn to live in accordance with nature, not in opposition. What ever horrid punishment awaits us, we all deserve it.

The moral? Don't fuck with Gaia, she'll kick your ass.

[Deja Q]

44. But Reagan said alternative energy was obsolete when he shit-canned all

of those alternative energy policies Carter started.

On top of everything else, how can anybody truly like that wormy bastard Reagan? (one of his sons is cool, but that's about it. )

[carnie_sf]

10. Can you sat peak oil? nt

[Renew Deal]

13. Peak

Oil

[Yavin4]

11. Oh Look! Scary Black Man Just Shot Up A Courthouse!!

Be afraid of the Big Bad Black man White people! Pay no attention to this peak oil story.

Honestly, that story is a major story FOR THE STATE OF GA, but what the hell does that story have to do with me, and why is it leading ALL of the major media outlets!

I forgot. Gotta keep the White people scared of the big Black man.

[JohnyCanuck]

12. George, the axe and the cherry tree

George, the axe and the cherry tree

by Feral Metallurgist

Oil energy (gasoline and diesel) can be likened to the fruit of a cherry tree that bears but once in our tiny lifetimes.

Imagine such a tree laden down with fruit, springing from the rocks of this planet. The tree is the history of all living things. The cherries contain a little of the energy gathered from the sun over billions of years.

Although they are crammed with concentrated “goodness”, those cherries are finite in number. They represent only a little of the sunlight that ancient creatures garnered for themselves. They retain only a fraction of the immense geological energy that went into their final creation.

None of this mattered to the ancient tree as it dreamed in the warmth of the sun. It thought it had all the time in the world.

More...

[chlamor]

16. Dr. Seuss-Like

Nature is the law.
And Then
He punches the keys on his machine.


"THE MYTH of the MACHINE"-Lewis Mumford

"The Technological Society"-Jacques Elul

[despairing optimist]

15. Here it comes: "Nuclear power is good for you."

Don't kill the messenger. I only deliver here.

Nuclear power is the path of least resistance, and as such it will be embraced by the powers that be, especially given the enormous resources at the industry's disposal. The technology is the most developed among the alternative energy sources, thanks to Reagan's gutting of Jimmy Carter's initiatives. It may also be among the reasons that * was cozying up to French president Jacques Chirac, since France has been relying on nuclear power to supply most of its energy needs for years.

The media push to establish a consensus favoring the adoption of nuclear power in the US will make the pre-Iraq invasion and Social Security "reform" initiatives look like small potatoes.

[sandnsea]

20. This week it's ANWR

When they get ready to actually build nuclear power plants, they'll roll it out again. And ignore it completely in between.

[reprobate]

24. Pebble Bed reactor nuclear power WOULD be a good stopgap.

Unfortunately it's China that is getting a jump on it. But you may be right about the industry's resources. Especially when you consider the American Politician's propensity for obeying the orders of his campaign contributors.

If we embark on a program of water cooled reactor construction we would be making a huge mistake. Talk about fouling your own nest!

There are several advantages to the pebble bed reactor, the first of which is that it avoids almost all of the safety threats of the water cooled reactor. It uses not water, but helium to drive the turbines to generate power. Even if it loses all it's cooling helium it will not overheat and runa away. In fact the temperature in the reactor chamber will drop.

Pebble bed reactors can be made relatively small and modular, so a town could start with a small system and add modules as it became a city.

As I said, it could be an excellant stop gap while we reseach and move to renewable resources. That's what china is now doing. While we start wars for the last few drops of oil. Now who's the fools.

Google 'pebble bed reactor'. You'll find it fascinating.

[despairing optimist]

27. At the risk of being burned at the stake here, I'd rather use nuclear

energy than no or severely reduced and rationed energy. That's not to say efficiencies shouldn't be sought wherever possible, but only to acknnowledge that people most likely won't do enough conserving to make a difference before drastic, rolling blackouts become the norm. If pebble bed reactors are demonstrably safer, that's all the better.

I wonder how much oil would be left for applications in which there is no alternative to using it, such as fertilizers, plastics, medications, and many other kinds of petrochemicals. We're really in a bind, I think. We seem to be retracing a gigantic circle that has taken 30 years to complete. The paradigm has shifted back to Small Is Beautiful and Growth Has Limits.

All this focus on nuclear energy and China's jump on the latest technology leaves the * administration's obsession with Iraq and the Middle East seeming even more like a wasteful sideshow than it appeared before.

[Massacure]

28. You can't put nukes in cars.

And battery technology isn't yet practical enough.

[reprobate]

35. Probably true. But you assume that there will be no sacrifice.

In my opinion, and that of others smarter than me, the american lifestyle that we are used to will end shortly. We, as a society, have done absolutely nothing to plan for the future of depleting oil production, except to invade nations purely for their oil.

That was, after all, the goal of PNAC. Their intent was to control the middle east and all its oil producing countries.

But the problems far preceeded PNAC. For the last thirty years the future has been known, and we did nothing. Instead of increasing cafe milage and sponsoring research into alternative energy sources, we stuck our heads in the sand and ignored the future. OH, I forgot the one thing we did....we bought SUVs and Hummers.

Now the piper is about to present his bill for accounting. We will pay it with a severe decrease in living standards. Those with money will not feel it as soon as those without, but time will be the great leveller.

Of course, if the world was smart they'd cut us off from oil completely and give themselves a chance to deal with the problem intelligently.

[LibertyorDeath]

17. Incase you haven't read this yet. Good article from Michael C. Ruppert

Peak Oil is no longer on the way. It is here. Forget for a moment whether or not global oil production has actually begun (see below) its hopelessly irreversible decline. We will not know that for certain until sometime after it happens. The political fact, however, is that global inertia in response to Peak has driven our species, all of it, past the point of no return.

More

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/031005_globalcorp.shtml#0

[lovuian]

18. Its time to learn conservation Its time!!!

Even Republicans are going to have to do it!!!

[sandnsea]

19. Just in time to drill in ANWR

Don't buy into this propaganda, it'll be gone after the ANWR vote is over.

[wildflower]

42. Excellent point! I didn't think of that when I first saw this article. n/t

[Straight Shooter]

22. Never mind, never mind, NEVER MIND!! Social Security is in crisis!

If peak oil were truly a disaster waiting to happen, surely bush would be attending to it. Right? Right??? :eyes:

/sarcasm off

Meanwhile, back at the Wal-Mart Ranch, the goods from China keep pouring in. Nothing is cheap, not in this world, everything has a hidden price.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

23. At the risk of being flamed ...

I feel that overpopulation is a factor that isn't receiving enough attention. I'm not saying it's the only factor, but lowering population growth would be one more step in the right direction, along with alternative fuels, more public transportation, expansion of a work-at-home culture, redesign of our cities for more efficiency of travel and with less urban sprawl, and resource conservation.

I also have the sinking feeling that there are other "peak" barriers that we may face after peak oil, fresh water being one. Agriculture, which sustains life is very dependent upon water. I've read articles by scientists who maintain that water will become a scarcer and scarcer resource in the coming decades. We are facing a growing population and at the same time an increased consumption per capita of energy and natural resources. I question whether there might not be an upper limit to the number of people the planet can sustain without major planet re-engineering.

I know that population control isn't a very popular subject, but personally I would prefer to live in a world with far fewer people and I dread to think of an earth of the future where an even larger number of people live.

[NEOBuckeye]

25. Peak Water is very real -- Water Tables falling rapidly in Southwest US

One thing that isn't often pointed out in the Peak Oil discussions is that catastrophe isn't going to cut equally across the board. There are some areas are going to naturally fare better than others. And some will fare far worse than others. A lot of it is going to come down to access to the very basic resources necessary to sustain life, most namely WATER, but also arable land -- enough of it to grow crops and food for the local population. And even then, you will likely experience some "thinning" of the population through poor nutrition (not enough food to go around) and disease until a balance is reached.

Consider Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas and Reno. All of them are surging boomtowns, and are dramatically expanding, receiving hundreds and even thousands of new people each month, even now, in the current-though-very-troubled petroleum-driven economy. When the Oil/Energy Crisis hits, however, these cities, like others throughout the US, will be utterly devestated by insanely high energy costs. But not only that, because they are situated in the DESERT, they will not be able to in any meaningful way convert to agrarian/self-sufficient models.

People forget that The West is an arid DESERT, not the grassy, more temperate Great Plains. And besides, where will they draw their water? The water tables in much of desert region of the Western US have been ridiculously overtaxed by growth and new development. With very limited rains or other sources of fresh water, "Peak Water" is already quite imminent in this region. Many people just haven't realized it yet, as they continue to move out into the desert to construct their oversized McMansions.

http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=4147&method=full

My prediction is that the Southwest -- Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas to a significant degree, will probably fare the worst in the Energy Crisis, even if they do manage to rig up Solar Electric. Transportation -- getting people and goods from place to place in these sprawling cities and spread-out regions -- is going to be a challenge on par with obtaining water and growing food. Toss in the infamous heat, and you have areas in which only the hardiest of the hardy will survive.

The West is destined to become the most hostile region of the North American continent. If I lived there now, I think I'd be making some serious plans to get outta there, pronto, and go someplace green, like Cascadia. Portland/Washington/Northern California will by no means be a paradise either, but they do seem to have plenty of fresh water and a climate that will support local food production. I'd say the same for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and New England regions, though winter will probably be their biggest challenge.

I'd generally try and stay away from the "Bible Belt" of The South, given that Right Wing Fundamentalist Christianity will probably have a great deal of people there expecting the Rapture. There's no telling how these people will react when the misery hits with a vengeance, and they aren't immediately zipped up into Heaven.

[earth mom]

37. Sometimes I wonder if the "rapture" is the fundies way of warning

their followers of Peak Oil without telling them the TRUTH about Peak Oil. I was reading on another thread where the fundie shot up his church that the pastor was talking about laying in supplies etc for the end times...sounds VERY similar to what I've been reading about in regards to Peak Oil. That being said, I'm not a christian (though I am spiritual) and have not read any of the left behind books, so what the hell do I know? It just struck me as the same... :shrug:

[Jokinomx]

29. There are so many factors that are leading us over the cliff..

Your right about the world's population....we need to lower the birth rates in many parts of the third world...however.... bush won't allow any birth control measures to be used by the U.N. because they advised many mothers about the options of abortion. So now the U.N.s hands are tied to slow down this crisis we are about to face.

Its like he WANTS to escalate the problem.

[Klapaucius]

31. Of course he does...

How else will the end times come around?

People who believe that the end times are coming and hasten to bring them on scare me.

Because....

*What if they're wrong?*

then it puts us in a hole of our own making.

This is the reason why religion scares the crap outta me, especially in conjunction with government.

K.

[Jokinomx]

32. You and I are on the same page ...

I couldn't agree with you more. I know some fundies that think that all this is good...because the endtimes are at hand. Talk about self fulfilling prophecy.

[concord]

33. Population control is an answer; however,

in my limited exposure to the religious right, it appears as though the more children you have, the better. More good little soldiers? I don't know. But conservation on any front does not appear to be in their thinking. The concept of population control will be a very hard sell. Loss of power and gas for their minivans will get to them first.

[Gregorian]

43. Thank you. No flames here.

Population IS the problem. Period. Very few people want to admit it. And even fewer know it. Some of us have been suffering intolerably for the longest time. And it really doesn't help things to have the majority of people violently opposed to hearing about it. The truth is, the problems are fueled by the number. Of course, greed has nothing to do with it. And I'm sorry to say that for those who have argued that we can engineer our way out of it, they are sadly missing a very important part of the problem- quality of life. Enough. I said I'd never mention this subject again, here. But when I hear someone else who is willing to speak up, I applaud them. I wish you well in your endurance.

[mmonk]

30. In the meantime,

they are making new production and exploration deals.

[demgrrrll]

36. How long will it take to retool for cars like the Prius and other hybrid

vehicles and how much difference would that make in the short or long term? I think some people are counting on technology to make up for peak oil issues.

[Robb]

39. There's a saying here in Colorado

..."you can't conserve your way out of a drought."

It either rains, and the drought is over, or it doesn't. In the case of oil, it only rains once. :shrug:

[Strelnikov_]

45. Unfortunately This DOE Study Concludes That Mitigation Must Begin 20 Years

in advance of peak to avoid severe economic impacts.

The report seems to conclude that due to the investment that has been made in the petroleum based economy, unless start well ahead of peak, the transition will be, at a minimum, economically painful.

Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.

Full Report:
http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf

Summary from:
http://216.187.75.220/newsletter51.pdf

. . .

Improved fuel efficiency in the world’s transportation sector will be a critical element in the long-term reduction of liquid fuel consumption, however, the scale of effort required will inherently take time and be very expensive. For example, the U.S. has a fleet of over 200 million automobiles, vans, pick-ups, and SUVs. Replacement of just half with higher efficiency models will require at least 15 years at a cost of over two trillion dollars for the U.S. alone. Similar conclusions generally apply worldwide.

Commercial and near-commercial options for mitigating the decline of conventional oil production include: 1) Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), which can help moderate oil production declines from older conventional oil fields; 2) Heavy oil/oil sands, a large resource of lower grade oils, now produced primarily in Canada and Venezuela; 3) Coal liquefaction, an established technique for producing clean substitute fuels from the world’s abundant coal reserves; and 4) Clean substitute fuels produced from remote natural gas.

For the foreseeable future, electricity-producing technologies, e.g., nuclear and solar energy, cannot substitute for liquid fuels in most transportation applications. Someday, electric cars may be practical, but decades will be required before they achieve significant market penetration and impact world oil consumption. And no one has yet defined viable options for powering heavy trucks or airplanes with electricity.

. . .

To explore how these technologies might contribute, three alternative mitigation scenarios were analyzed: One where action is initiated when peaking occurs, a second where action is assumed to start 10 years before peaking, and a third where action is assumed to start 20 years before peaking.

Analysis of the simultaneous implementation of all of the options showed that an impact of roughly 25 million barrels per day might be possible 15 years after initiation.

Because conventional oil production decline will start at the time of peaking, crash program mitigation inherently cannot avert massive shortages unless it is initiated well in advance of peaking.

Specifically,
* Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for two decades or longer.
* Initiating a crash program 10 years before world oil peaking would help considerably but would still result in a worldwide liquid fuels shortfall, starting roughly a decade after the time that oil would have otherwise peaked.
* Initiating crash program mitigation 20 years before peaking offers the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.

Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide.

[demgrrrll]

46. Thanks so much that is great information to respond to Republicans

who believe that we can retool and fix the problem mechanically. I had a feeling they were wrong. I am glad to have the information to back up my beliefs.

[Flammable Materials]

38. Methinks OPEC is taking a page from the Enron handbook. n/t

[bpilgrim]

41. it's ALL in your HEADS, eh

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

peace