STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 14 April

[ozymandius]

Thursday April 14, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 281 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 122 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 178 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1236
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 12, 2005

Dow... 10,403.93 -104.04 (-0.99%)
Nasdaq... 1,974.37 -31.03 (-1.55%)
S&P 500... 1,173.79 -13.97 (-1.18%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.37% +0.01 (+0.32%)
Gold future... 431.00 +1.70 (+0.39%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. THE STAKES ARE VERY HIGH!!

WrapUp by Mike Hartman

A weaker than expected March Retail Sales report from the Commerce Department put downward pressure on stocks and gave a small lift to bond prices in early trading this morning. Retail sales were forecast to grow by 0.8%, but instead only managed a gain of 0.3%. The alarming part of the report shows retail sales actually declining by 0.1% when automobile and gasoline sales are excluded. This is the first decline in retail sales ex-autos and gas since April 2004; that was the beginning of Mr. Greenspan’s description of a “soft patch” in the economy. There is now mounting evidence that the U.S. economy, as well as the global economy are heading for a slowdown. We keep hearing of higher interest rates to slow inflation, but the bond market is not giving us higher interest rates. Bond yields are telling us the economy is expected to slow.

The ten-year T-bill yield has dropped from roughly 4.7% to 4.3% in the last three weeks as we continue to hear this spin from the mainstream financial media that higher interest rates are strengthening the U.S. dollar. It all might sound good to unsuspecting investors who hear sound bites on the six o’clock news, but it’s only a manufactured reason for the ramping of the U.S. dollar higher. When we look at the correlation of the ten-year T-bill yield and the U.S. Dollar Index, we can see that the dollar declined as bond yields (interest rates) moved higher, and likewise, when interest rates fell from late December to early February, the dollar moved higher. It has only been the last few weeks we have been hearing about dollar strength due to higher interest rates. Have a look at the charts to see how it all lines up. I will come back to the ramping of the U.S. dollar after touching a few news items.



-cut-

Two Sides to Every Story

I called and emailed a few of my market analyst cohorts, and they all completely agreed that what we saw was a pure ramp job on the U.S. dollar along with the late explosion of stock prices. Yesterday when the Dow Industrials were down about 50 points they came out with the indictments of fraud for the NYSE specialists. I figured that confidence breaker should have been good for another 50 points down, but the market rallied to close higher…because the Fed released the minutes of their meeting, of course. The projected softness for interest rate hikes and big declines in energy prices didn’t do squat for the stock market today. The Dow was hammered for 104 points to 10,403 and the NASDAQ was clocked for 31 points to 1,974. Right now, stocks are the least important for our market managers. The dollar is critical, as there appears to be MUCH going on behind the scenes in the FOREX markets, and the bond market is critical because interest rates affect everything, especially housing prices right now.

One of the top analysts I sent an email had this as part of his reply, “To be honest Mike, I am sick to death with what I see these jokers do day in and day out. It does appear we have entered some brave new world in which our financial masters know what is best for us pitiful peasants. I suppose the stakes are so high they feel justified in playing their games, but they do so from the shadows like thieves lurking in the night.” He went on with a great deal more and I read testimony after testimony of many investors that thought there was some heavy intervention with the dollar. Bill Murphy titled his piece last night, “Manipulation OF US Financial Markets Intensifying.” I think my buddy said it all when he wrote, “I suppose the stakes are so high they feel justified in playing their games.” Folks, the stakes are incredibly HIGH!!! The euro is competing for dual status as a global reserve currency with the dollar, Iran might be opening a commodities exchange denominated in euro, China is being pressured to remove its peg to the U.S. dollar, and on and on. The stakes are very high indeed! Fiat paper money across the globe is being called into question, especially the fiat U.S. dollar.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

You need to read what he says about oil prices versus inventory. Who you gonna trust???

[54anickel]

2. Morning Ozy. Another excellent wrap up today. Yes indeed, the

stakes are high and I believe we are seeing some desperate measures being pulled from the Fed's bag of tricks.

Pass the popcorn around, the show's about to begin.
:popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn:

[UpInArms]

22. fascinating wrapup, Ozy

the dollar movements have been really unprecedented of late - yesterday's treasury sales were dismal, yet the dollar is climbing - tomorrow we will get the capital inflow numbers - it's gonna get even more interesting, I fear.

[AnneD]

35. greetings and salutations

:donut: Morning marketeers. Illuminating wrap up Ozy. You guys are much more interesting than the WSJ or the other rags. Have a great day:hi:

[On the Road]

44. The Market is Thrashing This Week

The last few years it's been quiet. Not too many days over 1% change either way, whereas in Clinton's last term 2-3% days were not unusual.

And trends have changed more gradually. The market gets oversold and rises, then gets overbought and sinks. The stochastics show a nice rolling pattern.

Suddenly, what the hell is happening this week? They're shooting up and shooting down with no apparent rhyme, reason, or pattern. Volatility often increases just before a big move. Given the poor fundamentals and the time of year, I'm willing to bet it's presaging a big move down. The dollar gaining strength would accelerated that trend. But who knows?

[54anickel]

61. Here's a rather interesting article from earlier in the week that bears

repeating. It also states April has been the best month of the year for the DOW since 1950.
So, is this as good as it gets?


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a43.6ONXw_uQ&refer=us

U.S. Stocks' 2 1/2-Year Rally May Soon End, Chart Watchers Say

snip>

``We are looking for one last piece of news that leads to panic selling, so it shakes out those who are worried,'' says Paul Desmond, president of Lowry's Reports Inc., a newsletter publisher in Palm Beach, Florida.

The catalyst may arrive as early as this week, when about 40 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will report first- quarter earnings. General Electric Co., the world's second- largest company by market value, Citigroup Inc., the world's biggest financial-services company, and Apple Computer, the maker of iPod digital-music players, are among them.

While stocks have slipped this year amid higher interest rates and record crude-oil prices, the S&P 500 has moved within a 5 percent range. On March 7, the benchmark reached a high for the year at 1225.31, up 58 percent from its October 2002 low. The index then retreated to within two points of the year's lowest level on March 29.

snip>

``This bull market is getting long in the tooth,'' said Desmond, winner of the Market Technicians Association's 2002 Charles H. Dow Award for excellence in technical analysis. ``Buying enthusiasm is drying up.''

Three days before the S&P 500 reached this year's peak, there were 833 stocks that set 52-week highs on U.S. markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The total fell from 1,057 on Dec. 1, near the peak of a fourth-quarter rally that was spurred by President George W. Bush's re-election.

more...

[On the Road]

68. That's Where I'm Putting My Money

on the other hand, you can always make cases for the opposite. When too many stocks reach new 52-week lows, it can act like an oversold signal, and suggest a turnaround is imminent. But I'm still double-short the NASDAQ.

[patcox2]

72. Is this starting to look like "Stagflation?

I am certainly far from an expert at these matters, but this wrap-up seems to be hinting at possible stagflation, what happened in the 1970s, when there is a slowing economy and simultaneous inflation. The only thing missing is the high interest rates and we'd have the Ford and Carter years again.

But when you think about it as John Kenneth Galbraith would, stagflation combined with low interest rates would actually be the best of all possible worlds for workers and net debtors who live paycheck to paycheck, while it would hurt the investor class. The real interest rate would be negative, and at the same time your debt would be decreasing in real value due to the inflation. So long as your wages track inflation, you are golden, you've got free money (negative real interest rates) and diminishing debt. Meanwhile investors will be getting crap returns on investments that diminish in value every year.

Of course, the big if, is whether wages will track.

[54anickel]

3. WSJ: HSBC warns of possible card fraud

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-financial-hsbc.html?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global bank HSBC Holdings Plc(0005.HK) is notifying at least 180,000 people who used MasterCard credit cards to make purchases at Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL.N) that criminals may have obtained access to their credit-card information, and that they should replace their cards, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The situation involves a General Motors Corp. (GM.N branded MasterCard, which is one of the most widely held credit cards in the United States.

It is the latest in a string of high-profile incidents in which personal data were stolen from retailers or financial institutions.

More than 20 U.S. states are considering legislation after data security scandals involving ChoicePoint Inc. (CPS.N) and LexisNexis (ELNS.AS).


Whew, guess I don't have anything to worry about on this one. Criminals hanging out at Polo Ralph Lauen Corp? :wtf:

[UpInArms]

8. LexisNexis says earlier fraud likely

http://www.theolympian.com/home/news/20050414/topstories/125699.shtml

WASHINGTON -- LexisNexis executive said Wednesday there might have been an earlier breach of consumers' personal data that was never reported to the public.

The disclosure at a Senate hearing came a day after London-based Reed Elsevier, which owns LexisNexis, revealed that criminals might have breached computer files containing the personal information of 310,000 people since January 2003. That in itself was a tenfold increase over the 32,000 people the company said in March were put at risk. The company said the fraud involved the improper use of IDs and passwords.

"I believe there may have been a security breach in LexisNexis prior to 2003 that involved personal data and we did not make notice," Kurt Sanford, LexisNexis' president and chief executive for U.S. corporate and federal markets, said in response to questioning at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.

...more...

So can anyone tell me exactly why all of these companies have access to personal information?

[54anickel]

4. Indonesia May Become an Oil Importer as Output Slides (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=a65kl2ceDYko&refer=asia

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia, Southeast Asia's only OPEC member, may become a net oil importer this year as projects led by ConocoPhillips, Unocal Corp. and PetroChina Co. fail to stem falling output, helping to boost fuel prices to records.

The country may turn to importing a net 61,000 barrels a day this year from net exports of 27,000 barrels a day in 2004, based on figures in a document prepared for the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and obtained by Bloomberg News.

Indonesia is draining oil from global markets at a time when China's soaring demand helped to push prices to a record $58.28 a barrel on April 4. To revive exports, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono must resolve contract disputes that have curbed spending by companies including Exxon Mobil Corp.

``Without new investments, Indonesia will this year probably end up as a net importer of oil,'' Wahyudin Yudiana Ardiwinata, 55, chief executive of ChevronTexaco Corp.'s local unit, PT Caltex Pacific Indonesia, said in an interview yesterday in Jakarta. Caltex pumps half of Indonesia's oil.

Indonesia has failed since early 2002 to meet its output quota, currently at 1.425 million barrels a day, from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. An end to Indonesia's status as an oil exporter would threaten its membership of the group, led last year by Indonesia's Oil Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro.

more...


Heh, didn't we just read an article where Indonesia wanted more of a cut from foreign oil corporations? Think there might be more here than what meets the eye?

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.94 Change +0.52 (+0.62%)

Dollar Yen: Where Are We Headed Next - 104 or 110?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=515&Itemid=46

With the sharp surge in USDJPY over the past week, a major question on the minds of our traders is where USDJPY is headed next - back down to 104 or up to 110. The next move for the Yen, aside from being led by the US dollar is primarily contingent upon 2 factors - oil prices and Chinese Revaluation.

*Republishing from 3/30

The following is a scenario analysis that we have prepared for USDJPY:

What Will Cause the USD/JPY to rally to 110?

1. Oil will hurt both input costs and consumer demand
2. Deflation remains solidly negative creating carry trade opportunity
3. Technicals Support Further Move Upwards In USDJPY

Oil Prices Continue To Rise, Hurting Japanese Growth

With West Texas Intermediate Crude stubbornly hovering around record highs of $57/bbl, Japanese corporations will suffer a double blow to their bottom lines as input costs ranging from energy to basic raw materials such as steel will increase markedly at the same time as global demand for exports decline due to contracting disposable income. Although Japan is one of the most energy efficient nations in the world, it still imports 99.5% of its crude oil needs and is therefore the most vulnerable G-3 member to rising oil prices. If oil prices continue to rise, Japan's economy could face further deterioration, which could lead to more losses for the Japanese Yen. This vulnerability has taken a huge toll on the Japanese economy, which is clearly evident in the latest string of weaker economic data. The Trade Surplus narrowed to 1550 Billion JPY from 1776 Billion JPY the month prior as a direct result of higher input costs. The unemployment rate in Japan increased from 4.5% to 4.7%, with the number of employed individuals falling for the first time in three months. With worsening labor market conditions, household spending fell by a more than expected 4.1%. Wage growth in Japan has been weak, resulting in a fall in income. This has also impacted retail sales, which slipped more than expected on an annualized basis. With oil prices raising the cost of basic necessities in general, Japanese consumers are even more pinched than before.

Deflation Remains a Problem and USDJPY Becomes New Carry Trade

With consumer prices on a national level, falling for a second consecutive month (-0.3% on year/year basis), deflation remains a chronic problem for the Japanese economy. Because deflation is still rampant, Japanese companies have little power to increase prices and therefore try to increase profits by cutting costs and reducing wages. The latest unemployment release showed a muted growth in labor cash earning of only 0.1%, while hours worked actually declined by 1.4% in the latest period. The net result of this dynamic is lower consumer confidence (the Eco watcher survey has been below 50 for six straight months) and lower consumer spending as evidenced by a sharp drop in Household Spending which registered a -3.8% decline from last year. This vicious cycle of contracting consumer demand and stagnant wage growth is likely to continue for the near term forcing the Bank of Japan to maintain is ultra accommodative monetary policy and keep interest rates at zero. With US rates now at 2.75% the interest rate differential is already at 275 basis points and may expand to as much as 425 basis points if the Fed continues to pursue it tightening policy. Such a rich premium is likely to attract a slew of carry trade speculators who could conceivably earn 42.5% annual returns on 10:1 leverage basis. The inflow of speculative carry trade capital could easily push the USDJPY pair above the 110 level as more and more players crowd into the trade.

...more...

Dollar U-Turns Despite Weak Retail Sales Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=715&Itemid=39

EURUSD

There was quite a bit of volatility in the FX markets today as prices U-turned once again following the release of US retail sales data. Retail sales came in much weaker than expected, causing the Euro to skyrocket above 1.30, but on what may be the perfect scenario of buy the rumor sell the news, the dollar reversed course, trading right back below 1.29. With nothing to explain the move, the rumor mill was in full swing with the market talking about possible short covering by a large US investor - Warren Buffett's name has come up quite a few times as well as possible concern by Asian central banks about diversifying into the euro at this time given the increasing likelihood of a referendum rejection of the EU Constitution by the French. Nothing was verified, which suggests that right now, it is all about Friday's TIC data. Across the Atlantic, unsurprisingly French inflation came in higher than expected, as a direct result of energy prices. Italian industrial production was a bit weaker which underscores the difficulty that Eurozone countries are facing. Although ECB Issing said that there are no second round effects from oil prices, higher energy prices has undoubtedly taken a toll on growth during the month of February.

<snip>

USDJPY

The yen strengthened after last night's inflation data was released. Japan's consumer price index increased for the 13th month in March. This eroded the profits of companies that are already struggling to pass on costs amidst seven years of consumer price inflation. The domestic CGPI rose 0.3% on the month, a modicum above the expected 0.2%, as higher costs of oil products, metals and other commodities pushed the import price index up 1.8% following February's 2.8% increase. Prices of gasoline and oil products rose 16.5% in March, contributing half of the overall increase. Steel and chemicals prices also rose substantially. Meanwhile, export prices have not risen nearly as much with a 0.7% monthly change. Oil-related concerns were a major reason the March Tankan survey showed that business sentiment was deteriorating, but today's price action might have given manufacturers a reason to cheer as crude oil fell by as much as 4.2% after the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for world fuel demand. The news would of course be yen-bullish as Japan imports almost all of its oil.

...more...

That 'toon is spot on, Ozy :applause:

It's MaeveDay!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

7. Resilient dollar extends gains, eyes data (Bwahahaha!)

I was itchin' to post this one, but wanted to wait to see if you had it for the Buck-a-roo watch!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8179416&pageNumber=0

snip>

The U.S. currency slipped against the euro after weaker-than-expected retail sales data on Wednesday but soon rebounded, as it did on Tuesday after the U.S. trade deficit hit a new monthly record.

"We've had two bad U.S. numbers in the past two days and euro has plummeted after both of them," said Lee Ferridge, senior proprietary trader at Rabobank.

"The market is worried that there are big sellers out there that you can't explain and people are reluctant to be long on the dollar given the speed of the moves in the past few days -- and you can't blame them," he added. Rumors that billionaire investor Warren Buffett was buying back the dollar after having made massive bets against the U.S. currency prompted traders to tread cautiously. Buffett wagered $21.4 billion against the dollar last year.

snip>

Markets will also be closely monitoring Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke's speech on "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit" later on Thursday.

snip>

Dealers in Tokyo said demand for dollars by Japanese investors helped lift the currency broadly during an otherwise quiet session....


Did Buffett play let's make a deal? Is he doing his patriotic duty to save the US dollar by allowing the rumor?
Turn in for another exciting episode of "As the Dollar Burns" :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

9. Spitzer Crusade Grabs Greenberg, Bypasses Buffett

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aifbGLUFNKDw

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Why isn't New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who hasn't shown any signs of backing away from a fight so far in his one-man crusade to reform corporate America, going after Warren Buffett with the same relish he seems to have pursued Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg?

The difference in Spitzer's attitude to the two is fascinating and puzzling, given that Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., was on the other side of the transaction that cost Greenberg his job as chairman and chief executive officer of American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer.

Spitzer calls Buffett a ``cooperative witness'' in his investigation into the insurance industry. Greenberg, by contrast, may suffer an ``adverse impact'' by invoking the Fifth Amendment to avoid testifying, Spitzer says.

snip>

While Buffett ``is not a subject or a target of our investigation,'' Greenberg is ``a CEO who did not tell the public the truth'' and might face a civil or criminal case, Spitzer said on ABC television on April 10. Buffett was interviewed by regulators the following day.

Buffett would be a formidable adversary even for Spitzer, who plans to run for the New York governor's office in elections next year. A poll of voters published Feb. 10 showed he'd beat the current chief, George Pataki, by 54 percent to 30 percent if Pataki sought a fourth term.

more...

[spotbird]

30. Is the suggestion that Buffet is propping the dollar

to avoid legal problems? Or is it that he sees a dollar rally?

Neither make sense to me, but the former is somewhat more likely. Either way, how long can even Buffet hold his finger in the dike?

[54anickel]

38. JMHO...

I don't think he's doing either. I doubt he's "really" propping the dollar, he's not the type to take that type of risk with his investor's moo-la. I don't believe he sees any dollar rally beyond a short-term rise either - but I'm not an expert by any means.

My suggestion in putting the posts together is that perhaps he is allowing the rumor with no response to it either way.

Whether the motive be to avoid legal problems, or out of a sense of "duty to his country and humanity", or something else entirely - I have no clue.

Just all supposition on my part. It's like watching a soap, they leave you hanging for weeks so you tend to come up with your own scenario to the plot as it thickens.

"Tune in tomorrow for another exciting episode of "As the Dollar Burns".

[spotbird]

47. So he must see some potential in the dollar.

Interesting and strange.

Is the US going to start paying its bills? Or does Buffett see inflation on the horizon?

[54anickel]

51. "Must see some potential"? I don't know if I'd go that far, unless...

your definition of potential includes "bird cage liner" as well as "rising currency".

For the time being, it's just reported as a rumor - nothing more, nothing less. I wouldn't be "bettin' the farm" on it.

Could be some truth to it or it could just be more propaganda furnished by our beloved MSM.

[UpInArms]

56. Dollar seen aided by Buffett short-covering rumor (whee! rumors!)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.4485784028-834156690&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A rumor in currency markets that financier Warren Buffett may be covering his short positions on currency forward contracts could be lending support to the dollar, according to IDEAGlobal currency strategist Sean Callow. There is no way to know for sure whether Buffett really is covering his shorts, Callow stressed. As of Dec. 31, 2004, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had $21.4 billion worth of forward contracts in 12 currencies and was warning investors about 'exceptional volatility,' the analyst noted. In recent trades the euro was down 0.8% at $1.2804 and the dollar up 0.9% at 108.22 yen, following news Wednesday that the International Monetary Fund sharply cut its forecast for Japan's 2005 growth.

[54anickel]

60. Oh yeah, THAT should give everyone warm fuzzies on the US$!

It's comforting to hear your currency is in great shape and being supported by SHORT COVERING!!!! :silly:

I can just envision Ben and Greenspin reaching into a nearly empty bag of tricks and pulling this one out. Sheesh, are we looking desperate yet?

[UpInArms]

10. hmmm.....

Buffett, huh?

Very interesting :evilgrin:

makes sense - seeing as he's kind of in a little bit of pickle right now ;)

[54anickel]

21. Ol' "Chopper" Ben's talk ought to be interesting later today. What a

title, "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit".

I can just hear him now. He'll explain how our gluttenous appetitie for "stuff" and debt has been the global economic engine. It was our "sacrifice" and contribution to the world to keep things going.

We decided to forego our own savings for the good of the world. Therefore, "all your savings belong to us now"! :eyes:

[UpInArms]

39. Spin alert: Dollar up after IMF cuts Japan outlook

Market looks past soft jobless claims, inventories

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1C85F069%2D01BA%2D4A2B%2DA95D%2DDB0D66803A11%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar remained at higher levels early Thursday, in spite of soft U.S. data reports, as market players continued to focus on a drastic reduction in the International Monetary Fund's growth forecast for Japan.

The dollar was up 0.8% at 108.14 yen. The euro was down 0.7% at $1.2812, tripped up in cross-trading by the dollar's gains on the Japanese currency.

<snip>

While the data were regarded as negatives for the dollar, they didn't send the currency lower.

"The market is really focusing on the short-term returns provided by the dollar and overlooking structural problems in the U.S.," said Boris Schlossberg, currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets.

In contrast, currency markets recently have been sending the yen lower on indications of Japanese economic structural weakness, he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

65. Here's one spinning the data was good for the dollar

Dollar Continues Rise Against Euro, Pound

http://www.wjla.com/news/stories/0405/220774.html

The U.S. dollar rose against the euro Thursday as investors noted a further drop in the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits and kept their focus on a report from the International Monetary Fund saying the global economy should continue to expand.The euro bought $1.2816 in afternoon European trading, down from $1.2915 in New York late Wednesday. The British pound bought $1.8813, down from $1.8944.

snip>

In Washington, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 last week, the second straight week of improvement. The Labor Department reported 330,000 new filings for jobless benefits last week compared to 340,000 in the previous week, when the number of new claims had fallen by 12,000.

snip>

In its latest world economic outlook, the IMF predicted global output would rise 4.3 percent this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its last forecast in October. For 2006, the fund predicted output would rise 4.4 percent.

Faster-than-expected growth in the United States, China and other developing economies in Asia and Latin America offset downgraded forecasts for Europe, Japan and Russia.


:eyes: But, but, but, doesn't inflation tend to cause GDP to be over-stated? Haven't we read that so many times here?

[UpInArms]

6. Today's Reports:

Apr 14	8:30 AM	Business Inventories	Feb	-	0.5%	0.5%	0.9%	-	
Apr 14	8:30 AM	Initial Claims		04/09	-	330K	330K	334K	-

[UpInArms]

12. U.S. Feb. inventories rise 0.5%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.354196412-834151581&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. businesses added 0.5% to their inventories in February while their sales fell 0.4%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The drop in sales was the largest since April 2003. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.31 in February from a record low 1.30 in January. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected inventories to rise about 0.6%. Much of the data in the report had already been released. One new piece of information: Retail inventories increased 0.3% in February, including no change in auto inventories.

8:30am 04/14/05 U.S. FEB. RETAIL INVENTORIES UP 0.3%

8:30am 04/14/05 U.S. FEB. BUSINESS SALES DOWN 0.4%, LOWEST IN 2 YEARS

8:30am 04/14/05 U.S. FEB. INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.31 VS. 1.30

8:30am 04/14/05 U.S. FEB. INVENTORIES UP 0.5% VS. 0.6% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. Feb. inventories rise 0.5% - Business sales fall 0.4%, biggest drop

Business sales fall 0.4%, biggest drop in nearly 2 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB1107D76%2D35E4%2D46DB%2DB054%2DD1E11A1BF86B%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. businesses added 0.5% to their inventories in February while their sales fell 0.4%, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The drop in sales was the largest since April 2003.

The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.31 in February from a record low 1.30 in January. The typical business has about 40 days of sales on hand in the backroom.

<snip>

Much of the data in the report had already been released. One new piece of information: Retail inventories increased 0.3% in February, including no change in auto inventories. Excluding autos, retail inventories increased 0.4%. Retail sales increased 0.4% in February.

<snip>

But if inventories get too tight, customers may be forced to go elsewhere to get goods on time, even if it means paying higher prices. On the other hand, if inventories were to get too loose, new orders would contract, employment might fall, and a recession could ensue.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. initial jobless claims fall 10,000 to 330,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.3543095833-834151594&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to 330,000 in the week ending April 9, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a decline to about 329,000. The number of people receiving unemployment checks, meanwhile, fell by 22,000 to 2.66 million in the week ending April 2.

8:30am 04/14/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22,000 TO 2.66 MLN

8:30am 04/14/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 10,000 TO 330,000

If the claims fell 10,000, last week's number must have been revised to 340,000.

Jacking with the numbers to make it look better - sheesh!

[54anickel]

11. China slams Japan over drilling in disputed waters as tensions soar

This "stuff" between China and Japan is getting rather scary. :scared: Especially in light of that article the other day stating the US has been pushing Japan for quite some time to give up their Pacifist Constitution.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=5&u=/afp/20050413/bs_afp/japanchinaenergygas_050413191602

BEIJING (AFP) - China slammed Japan's decision to allow drilling for gas and oil in disputed waters as a "provocation" as ties strained by violent anti-Japan protests here continued to deteriorate.

Foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said China has lodged a protest with Japan and "will retain the right to make further reaction".

"Japan has come up with a provocation to China's rights and the norm of international relations," he said, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Tokyo gave the go-ahead for exploratory drilling at the East China Sea site disputed by the two countries just days after the mass anti-Japanese protests here and despite China's warning that the move would "further escalate the situation."

more...

[UpInArms]

14. G-7's `Quiet Diplomacy' Under Attack as China Keeps Dollar Peg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=alNrHcp7oS4o&refer=europe

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- On a March 29 flight to Seattle, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow dictated a letter to Hu Xiaolian, China's new top foreign-exchange regulator, expressing the hope they could work together.

Around the same time, China sent its own message to the Treasury: Finance Minister Jin Renqing and Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan wouldn't attend this week's Washington meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, and so would be unavailable for the gathering of policy makers of the Group of Seven industrial nations that begins tomorrow.

The absence is evidence that a two-year effort by Snow and his G-7 colleagues to convince China to end the yuan's peg to the dollar is failing and that a tougher approach is required, politicians and business leaders from the U.S. and Europe said. Critics say the peg, which gives Chinese-made goods a price advantage, has helped drive the U.S. trade deficit to a record and now threatens growth in other G-7 countries.

``Quiet diplomacy hasn't worked,'' Wilbur Ross, a New York- based financier who last year bought two companies out of bankruptcy to create the Greensboro, North Carolina-based International Textile Group, said in an interview. ``We're for free trade, but fair trade, not currency manipulation.''

<snip>

The Bush administration dispatched Snow to make the case in Beijing, appointed a Treasury emissary to China, turned down calls to investigate Chinese trade practices, and didn't include the nation in Treasury's official list of countries that manipulate currency values.

...more...

[54anickel]

17. HA! "We're for free trade". Meanwhile they scream for protectionism

Seems their idea of free trade is a one-way street. As long as we can exploit the labor and laxed environmental laws of developing nations it's "free trade". When those developing nations exploit our addiction to debt, it's not. :crazy:

[54anickel]

16. Trading Scandal May Strengthen Stock Exchange (I've heard THAT

line so many times!!! From the money guy trying to get me back into the markets. At that time he was talking about the little Mutual Fund market timing scandal. Sh*t, we haven't seen the fallout yet. Back then I told him I thought that was just the tip of the iceberg - look what's come out since. I don't think we are near the end yet. Probably won't ever truely get there. JMHO


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/14/business/14place.html

A scandal can destroy an institution. Or it can renew it. The good news for the New York Stock Exchange is that the scandal that led to the indictments of people who had been extremely powerful on the floor of the exchange bears a close resemblance to the one that shook the Nasdaq stock market a decade ago.

In the Nasdaq case, the scandal forced the market to clean house at the top and to institute reforms that ended practices that had enabled brokers to systematically take advantage of their customers. The result was a far better market, one that was able to withstand the intense public scrutiny that arrived a few years later when the technology stock boom cast a spotlight on the Nasdaq.

In both scandals, powerful people had created an environment where it was deemed acceptable for brokers to make small amounts of money at the expense of their customers, through trading practices that no customer could hope to spot. When regulators first questioned the practices, many on Wall Street reacted with shock, arguing in essence that that was the way it was always done.

The indictment of 15 former specialists - the traders at the heart of the market whose job it is to maintain fair markets for customers - could make this the largest criminal case to come out of America's premier stock exchange since the 1930's, when the exchange's president, Richard Whitney, was imprisoned for fraud.

more...

[UpInArms]

18. Greenberg's Stock Transfer Questioned

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51787-2005Apr13.html

NEW YORK, April 13 -- Former American International Group Inc. chief executive Maurice R. "Hank" Greenberg's transfer of more than $2 billion worth of AIG shares to his wife probably would not survive a court challenge, legal experts said Wednesday.

<snip>

Thomas A. Dubbs, partner in the law firm Goodkind, Labaton, Rudoff & Sucharow LLP and counsel to Ohio Attorney General James Petro, lead plaintiff in an AIG class-action suit, said he would use the transfer to show that Greenberg knew his actions at AIG were illegal.

"The alleged transfer of stock by Mr. Greenberg to his wife is obviously problematic and it will be argued shows consciousness of guilt," Dubbs said.

Outside legal experts said the money would not be protected if a court concluded that the transfer was intended solely to protect Greenberg from judgments.

"The concept that you can't escape liability by this kind of transfer to your wife or child is pretty well understood," said Robert H. Hermann, a lawyer Thacher, Proffitt & Wood LLP.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. In tune with Ozy's 'toon - House OKs repeal of estate tax

http://www.theolympian.com/home/news/20050414/topstories/125701.shtml

WASHINGTON -- House Republicans, aided by 42 Democrats, passed legislation Wednesday to permanently repeal the federal estate tax and sent it to a Republican-run Senate where leaders are working to find enough Democratic crossover votes to avoid a filibuster and make the repeal a reality.

The bill cleared the House 272-162 vote. Washington state's lawmakers voted largely along party lines. The three Republicans -- Doc Hastings of Pasco, Dave Reichert of Bellevue and Cathy McMorris of Spokane -- voted for the bill while Democrats Brian Baird of Vancouver, Adam Smith of Tacoma, Norm Dicks of Belfair, Jay Inslee of Bainbridge Island and Jim McDermott of Seattle voted against it.

<snip>

Larsen said he had heard from small-business owners in his district who worried that their heirs would have to sell property to pay the tax bill.

"The estate tax is hitting middle-class small-business owners in the Northwest and that is having a negative impact on jobs in our communities," Larsen said.

Baird and Smith both voted in 2001 to eliminate the federal estate tax. But they said the federal government still had a budget surplus at the time that could cover the loss in tax revenue.

...more...

I call this bullshit! "Small business"????? When your business is worth more than $5 freakin' million, it is not a "small business".

:puke:

[54anickel]

26. SH*T! That's the oldest excuse and "urban legend" they've used. It

use to read "The family farm" instead of "small-business", otherwise it is word for word. I suppose they had to change the wording to appeal to the small-business owners and entrepreneurs since the family farm has nearly become extinct.

The "Death Tax" only effected about 30,000 estates. They could have reformed the law a bit rather than just toss the damned thing out! Many of the "small-business" owners that were included in those 30-some thousand estates could have protected themselves from being effected at all if they weren't too damned cheap or "stoopid" to hire an estate planner to begin with.

Meanwhile, they still have done NOTHING to protect the working class "schmuck" from the Alternative Minimum Tax. BASTARDS!!!!

We truely have returned to the days of the Robber Baron.


Here's an older story when they tried to appeal to the family farm idea.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/12/eveningnews/main648814.shtml

snip>

"It's an immoral tax because on the one hand we say, 'Work hard, save your money.' On the other hand we say we'll take it away," says the Heritage Foundation's William Beach.

President Bush insists the impact of the tax will eventually hit people like Joe Lyon the hardest, forcing them to sell their land or livestock in order to pay the bill.

"The death tax is bad for rural America and Congress needs to make it extinct forever," the president said in an April appearance in Iowa.

It's being billed as tax relief for family farmers. Problem is, family farmers aren't the ones paying this tax. In fact, in 2002, less than 4 percent of the people who died owed any estate tax at all, and only a tiny fraction of those were farmers. The overwhelming majority was paid by the wealthiest people in the country.

"I have never seen a farm business that had to be sold in order to pay federal estate tax," says Neil Harl of Iowa State University.

more...


Another "Robber Baron story from Jan. '03. No wonder the SS surplus has been pilfered, it seems to be the only money the gubbermint has coming in anymore!

Death, Taxes, and Tax Shelters
The Bush plan is a boon to lawyers, advisers, and accountants

Finding creative ways to reduce tax payments has long been a goal at most corporations. But since the mid-1990s, as companies have come under ever more intense pressure to boost earnings, the tax avoidance game has become a major industry. According to the U.S. Treasury, five years ago corporations anted up 12.5% of all taxes paid to the government. Last year, that fell to 8.7%. :eyes: What's it down to now?

Although the economy's decline has played some role, many corporate finance officers could never have pulled off such a feat were it not for the help of a sophisticated and fast-growing army: the lawyers, accountants, and Wall Street advisers who specialize in everything from structuring tax shelters to the art of shifting earnings to low-tax markets overseas. But with the Bush tax proposal suddenly casting new light on companies that pay very low tax bills, does that mean leaner times ahead for the booming tax advice industry?

Don't count on it. While much remains unclear about the Bush plan, one thing is certain: This may be tax reform, but it sure isn't tax simplification. The plan will add more requirements to the tax code, which is already groaning under the weight of thousands of statutes and regulations--1,151 changes since 1997 alone. And new rules generally bring more business to the advice gang, not less. "The world is being turned upside down," says Leslie B. Samuels, a tax specialist with law firm Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton. "From a tax lawyer's point of view, we're in heaven--and we didn't have to die."

snip>

Another wave of growth could soon be on its way. As companies became increasingly global, the tax code, to keep pace, has grown ever more complex. The result has been a rich vein of tax breaks for companies and their advisers to mine. The Bush plan does little to change that. Indeed, a new breed of tax shelters, built around publicly marketed securities rather than hard assets like real estate, are blossoming. With their bigger payoffs and more manageable risks, they make aggressive tax management an even better moneymaker for corporations than it already is.

Companies reaping huge rewards from smart tax strategies will be loath to give them up just to gain tax-free status for their dividends. Financing and manufacturing giant General Electric Co., for example, has saved billions. A 2000 study by the Washington-based Institute on Taxation & Economic Policy found that GE racked up a staggering $6.9 billion in breaks in just three years, trimming its tax bill by 77%. Since 1998, the last year of the study, GE's effective tax rate has declined dramatically, hitting 20.5% in the third quarter of 2002--a far cry from the 32.6% it reported in 1996, or the 35% statutory rate.


And last, an old article from 2000 (can't believe I had to go back that far in time to find something in favor of the estate tax - perhaps Google's search capabilities have also be "propaganda-cized". In Google's defense, I must admit I didn't spend a lot of time refining my search.

THE GLOBAL CITIZEN: 'Death Tax' Gives Poor Second Chance

http://www.alternet.org/story/9834/

snip>

"I've worked hard for the past 40 years to build an estate. Every cent in it I earned, paid taxes from 42-60% on, saved or invested. Unless I practice truly bizarre estate planning, most of my estate will be reduced by an additional 55%."

"I make $10,000,000 through my hard work, risk-taking and intelligence, with no help -- just barriers -- from the government. I pay somewhere between $4,200,000 and $6,000,000 in taxes upon earning that money. Let's say I net $5,000,000. When I die, this hard-earned after-tax property of mine is further reduced by the death tax of $2,750,000. So my children receive $2,250,000. This punitive and unfair tax cannot be justified unless we are going to give Socialism another chance to ruin a country."

snip>

Mr. Benefactor also exaggerated his facts in a way guaranteed to whip up his anger. The average inheritance tax rate after exemptions and deductions is not 55 percent (which is the top marginal rate), but 17 percent, less than the rest of us pay in income tax.

Furthermore the benefactor surely knew that the first $675,000 of his estate can go to his children tax-free. That number will rise over the next few years to $1 million. If he's worked 40 years, those "children" are in their 40s or older. Their industrious and successful parent probably provided them with the best education and other boosts in life that money can buy. He might ask himself how much they really need, and whether he wants to deprive them of the pleasure he obviously takes in being able to say of his estate, "Every cent in it I earned."

I would also question the literal truth of that statement. An accumulation of $5 million has almost certainly grown at least partially through the swelling of investments for which he might have taken risks, but did no work. Whatever he has earned from capital gains has never been taxed at all.

To pass it on to heirs as untaxed income is doubly unfair to middle-income wage-earners. Unfair first because they pay double tax -- income and payroll -- on every penny of their income, while high wage-earners are largely exempt and interest-earners totally exempt from payroll tax. Unfair second because, if the rich escape paying for government services, either the non-rich will have to pay more or the services will disappear. At present the estate tax contributes $27 billion a year to the federal budget. Raising that much from the bottom half of all taxpayers would double their tax rate.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. things that no one talks about with regard to the "death tax"

http://www.ariannaonline.com/columns/column.php?id=205

It was left to Gates-pere to deliver a dose of reality: "The estate tax," he wrote, "affects only the very wealthiest 2 percent of Americans. Poverty, on the other hand, afflicts one out of six American children." The reason that the interests of the top 2 percent are a higher priority than the interests of the poorest kids was made clear by Buffet last year when he decried the way political contributions influence policy in Washington. Then as now, the fourth richest man in America sounded the alarm: "We are on the way to becoming a plutocracy. That is not just wrong. It is destabilizing."

But this kind of bold language -- and bold stance -- is frowned upon in a political culture where elected officials quake at the thought of saying or doing anything that might alienate swing voters. So instead we have Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt fumbling with charts and graphs, substituting gimmicks for leadership skills, and our new president boosting his leadership quotient by bombing Iraq and then boasting to the press: "It was a mission about which I was informed and I authorized."

who cares about the "birth tax"?



The estimated population of the United States is 295,880,850
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,359.91.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$2.15 billion per day since September 30, 2004

[54anickel]

40. Thanks for the great article UIA. I knew there had to be better ones

out there than what I first came across.

:hangsheadinshame: I am a bit lazy this morning.

:smoke: :hug:

[AnneD]

85. The repeal of the Estate Tax

combined with the Patriot Act and corrupted electronic voting system guarantee that maybe within our lifetime and certainly within our children's and grand children's life time, we will devolve into a third world banana republic. Look for deterioration of physical infrastructure, the gutting of institutions such as health care system, education, & law enforcement. We are already seeing corruption of legislative, executive and judicial is on the horizon. My 8 ball is telling me it may soon be time to look for greener pastures.

[UpInArms]

90. Infrastructure Report Card 2005

http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=23&printer=1

excerpt:

Conditions

Like all man-made structures, dams deteriorate. Deferred maintenance accelerates deterioration and causes dams to be more susceptible to failure. As with other critical infrastructure, a significant investment is essential to maintain the benefits and assure the safety that society demands.

In the past two years, more than 67 dam incidents, including 29 dam failures, were reported to the National Performance of Dams program, which collects and archives information on dam performance as reported by state and federal regulatory agencies and dam owners. Dam incidents are such events as large floods, earthquakes or inspections that alert dam safety engineers to deficiencies that threaten the safety of a dam. Due to limited state staff, many incidents are not reported; therefore, the actual number of incidents is likely to be much greater.

The number of high-hazard potential dams (dams whose failure would cause loss of human life) is increasing dramatically. Since 1998, the number of high-hazard-potential dams has increased from 9,281 to 10,213, with 1,046 in North Carolina alone. As downstream land development increases, so will the number of high-hazard potential dams. As these dams often require major repair to accommodate more stringent inspection, maintenance and design standards, financial support for state dam safety programs must keep pace.

Even more alarming, states presently report more than 3,500 "unsafe" dams, which have deficiencies that leave them more susceptible to failure. Many states have large numbers of unsafe dams, including Pennsylvania (725), New Jersey (583), and New Hampshire (357). Many state agencies do not report statistics on unsafe dams; therefore the actual number is potentially much higher.

The combined effect of rapid downstream development, aging/non-compliant structures and inadequate past design practices, coupled with a predicted increase in extreme events, demands fully funded and staffed state dam safety programs, as well as substantial and proactive funding for dam repairs.

...more...

Crumbling infrastruction is already a major problem :(

[spotbird]

32. Framing; the more Orwellian the claim

the more vulnerable the Republicans are on the issue. Why haven't the Democrats learned?

[54anickel]

109. Well there goes some major funding for the "Faith Based" initiative

No reason for folks to make those big charitable contributions to avoid the estate tax now. But then again the Repukes have always insisted that there wouldn't be a decline in such charitable giving as taxes pay no role in the decision to give. :eyes:

Yet wasn't there already a decline in charitable giving when some other tax code was changed? Damn I swear I remember reading something like that.

[UpInArms]

20. Treasurys rise after soft jobless claims, inventories

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.3712362384-834152556&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Long-term Treasurys rose, pushing yields lower, early Thursday after a smaller-than-expected drop in weekly jobless claims and news that U.S. businesses in February suffered their largest drop in sales since April, 2003. Unemployment benefit claims fell by 10,000 to 330,000; economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a decline to 329,000. U.S. businesses added 0.5% to their inventories in February while their sales fell 0.4%. In recent trades the 10-year bond was up 3/32 at 97-6/32 yielding 4.35%, contrasting with 4.38% in late trade Wednesday.

[loudsue]

23. We should start calling this thread "Stock Market Mafia Watch"

:donut: Good mornin', Marketeers and Mafia watchers!

So much dirty stuff coming out in the market place! Who woulda guessed?

:kick:

[UpInArms]

24. Korea lost about W3tr in currency derivatives

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2005/04/14/200504140023.asp

Government intervention in the currency market has resulted in a loss of about 3 trillion won ($2.96 billion), Finance Minister Han Duck-soo told the National Assembly yesterday.

The loss, said Han, resulted from foreign exchange derivatives.

A derivative is a financial contract such as options, in which a buyer profits or loses on the future movement of a currency.

The financial minister said the loss should be considered part of the costs of government intervention to stabilize the foreign exchange rate.

"Costs from interest rate gaps, foreign currency transaction loss or burden from derivatives trading, all these form the costs resulting from which policy the government adopts," said Han.

<snip>

The government has intervened heavily in currency markets since 2003 to control the won's appreciation against the dollar. A strong local currency threatens the price competitiveness of Korean exports, which have propped up the economy the last two years.

...more...

Minister Stresses Currency Stability

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200504/kt2005041317313410160.htm

Finance-Economy Minister Han Duck-soo said that the government is willing to take costs to curb further rises in the won against the dollar, indicating that it will continue to intervene in the currency market in the future, if necessary.

Han told a session of the National Assembly that the government needs to shoulder costs associated with the intervention as it should help prevent exports from losing momentum.

``All nations rely on smoothing operations when foreign exchange rates do not reflect economic fundamentals,’’ Han said.

``Intervention costs are inevitable. It’s also impossible to carry out smoothing operations without such costs,’’ he added. ``The government will maintain its current foreign exchange policy.’’

...more...

[54anickel]

29. HA! Hope "Chopper" Ben is listening!

"All nations rely on smoothing operations when foreign exchange rates do not reflect economic fundamentals"

More "unreality" old "Printing Press" Ben with the helicopter money and his buddy Greenspin have managed to export to the world.

Oh yeah, I forgot. But this is the "New Economy".

[UpInArms]

25. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Still shaping up to be a relatively steady open for the indices, as futures indications continue to fluctuate around the unchanged mark... While most of this morning's earnings reports (i.e. PEP, LUV, UNH, DJ, NAV, PGR, ETN) have checked in better than analysts expected, it appears more data may be needed to give the market more of a boost since it is still too early in the earnings season to draw more optimistic conclusions

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures trade still denotes a mixed bias, possibly signaling a flat open for the cash market... Meanwhile, the Labor Dept. has just released a 10K decline in initial claims to 330K, in line with estimates, while Feb Business Inventories have also matched expectations, with a gain of 0.5%, following a 0.9% gain in January... Both stocks and bonds remain relatively unchanged in response to the data

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly higher open for the cash market as oil tests the $50/bbl mark and investors await economic data... Technology will be in focus after Apple Computer (AAPL) reported strong Q2 earnings, but guided Q3 revenues in line with forecasts, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), despite missing Q1 expectations, has been upgraded by two analysts amid plans to spin off its flash business in an IPO...

At 8:30 ET, Initial claims (consensus 330K) and Feb Business Inventories (consensus +0.5%) will be released

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains poised to test March's low crossing at 1463.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low at 1463.50 would renew this year's decline thereby opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1433.06 later this spring. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 1.50 pts. at 1471.50 as of 5:41 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains poised to test March's low crossing at 1166.80 in the near future. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low at 1166.80 would renew this year's decline while opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1150 later this spring. The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.60 pts. at 1177.60 as of 5:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

27. 9:37 EST markets are open

Dow 10,387.09 -16.84 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,970.65 -3.72 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,173.85 +0.06 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.356 -0.18 (-0.41%)

NYSE Volume 69,711,000
Nasdaq Volume 87,889,00

[UpInArms]

28. 9:41 EST numbers redder (Nasdaq below support) and blather

Dow 10,381.98 -21.95 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,969.34 -5.03 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,172.03 -1.76 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 100,239,000
Nasdaq Volume 118,846,000

9:40AM: Stocks open with little fanfare, in line with futures indications, as investors find little in the way of market-moving news to get them excited following yesterday's sell off... Meanwhile, the market had some economic data out this morning that could have perhaps unnerved investors had the data come in worse than expected... But weekly jobless claims of 330K, which is also consistent with monthly gains of 175K in nonfarm payrolls, and a rise of 0.5% in Feb business inventories, have both checked in exactly as expected, failing to aggressively nudge stocks or bonds in either direction...

(blather on edit)

[54anickel]

31. So, they supposedly opened higher on the jobless claims data, what's

bringing them down now?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050414/wall_street.html?.v=5

Stocks Open Higher on Jobless Claims Data

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks are trading higher Thursday after Wall Street's slide Wednesday, and investors will seek guidance from jobless claims data for the latest week.
The Dow Jones industrial average is higher by 4.80 points at 10,408.73, the Nasdaq is up 0.60 point at 1,974.97, and the S&P is up 0.88 point at 1,174.67.

On edit: Nevermind, I see the blather. However, that reads like some BS run thru the Dilbert jargonator, so I guess my question still stands. I'm thinking the answer lies in the technical support numbers. How friggen long can they keep it hanging on the cliff?

[spotbird]

33. Everything else?

That inventory news is particularly bleak.

[54anickel]

42. HA! Should be bleak, but they've run it through the Jargonator so it

reads:

Feb business inventories, have both checked in exactly as expected, failing to aggressively nudge stocks or bonds in either direction...

:evilgrin:

[spotbird]

57. Jargonator, LOL .nt

[UpInArms]

36. $7,782,816,546,352 In Debt (MSM peeps)

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/08/opinion/main686839.shtml

This week, President George W. Bush went to the Bureau of Public Debt, in Parkersburg, West Virginia, to make the point that there is no Social Security trust fund -- nothing there that can be really counted on. All it is, he said, was a bunch of IOUs. Parkersburg is a river town near the Ohio border, where the Ohio and Little Kanawha Rivers meet, and it is something of an irony that the one presiding over the largest explosion in federal budget deficits would use the Bureau of Public Debt as a backdrop for his plea for solvency in Social Security.

But the bureau may indeed serve as a confluence of many of the serious problems confronting the country over the long term: booming deficits fueled by wildly out-of-balance federal budgets and reckless, sometimes dishonest federal fiscal policy. This week in Washington, the GOP leadership in Congress is continuing its efforts to come up with a budget resolution for the next fiscal year, a blueprint of priorities that will also look out at the next five years. There is some question about whether they can come up with a deal that they can sell to the disparate and increasingly rowdy elements of their party.

<snip>

The president's suggestion in Parkersburg, that the $1.7 trillion in Treasury bonds held by the Social Security Administration is "not a pot of money to be drawn on," is a scary proposition. It not only threatens the future of Social Security, but it also goes to the heart of the debate over the long-term health and viability of the national economy. Debt and deficits, colliding with the spiraling costs of entitlements -- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, farm subsidies, student loan programs -- may mean we are headed for desolate economic shoals.

<snip>

If there is a question about the reliability of those bonds down the road, then you are talking about a larger set of problems: There may come a time when the federal government might not be good for its IOUs.

...more...

[54anickel]

46. HAHAHA! But thank goodness we've repealed that nasty estate tax!

snip>

"Four years ago, the Bush administration inherited a projected 10-year budget surplus of $5.6 trillion," says House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer. "Since then, we have run record deficits of more than $400 billion a year, and Congress has been forced to increase the national debt limit three times. Even worse, the administration and Congress have no real plan to rein in deficits and debt. This threatens our investments in issues important to our communities -- on everything from health care to our national security."

Walker made an interesting point when he recently appeared before the House Ways and Means Committee: The Social Security Trust Fund has IOUs because the Federal government spends, every year, hundreds of million of surplus payroll taxes collected for Social Security...

snip>

The day Bush was sworn into office in 2001, the national debt was $5.7 trillion, and there was a surplus. On the day he showed up in Parkersburg, it had climbed to $7,782,816,546,352.29. That is seven trillion, seven hundred and eighty-two billion, eight hundred and sixteen million, five hundred and forty-six thousand, three hundred and fifty-two dollars, and twenty-nine cents.

AND COUNTING

[UpInArms]

37. 10:03 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,397.79 -6.14 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,973.53 -0.84 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,172.80 -0.99 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 282,457,000
Nasdaq Volume 269,017,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Pacing the way lower again has been Materials (-0.9%), due to slowing demand for Steel (-2.1%), while Financial (-0.2%), amid weakness in Brokerage and Banks, has also been under pressure... Technology has been weak across the board, with losses in Hardware (-0.8%) - due in part to Apple Computer's (AAPL 39.43 -1.61) cautious Q3 sales outlook - preventing the influential sector from recovering much of what was lost yesterday...

Consumer Discretionary and Utility have also been weak while Transportation (-1.2%) has been under pressure following downgrades on a few railroad stocks... Airline (+3.7%), however, has been strong following better than expected earnings from Southwest Airlines (LUV 15.30 +0.58) while Energy (+0.9%) has also been strong as oil prices hold onto modest gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 964/1597, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1044/1269

[UpInArms]

41. 10:12 numbers (Nasdaq's down, is it out?)

Dow 10,375.78 -28.15 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,963.27 -11.10 (-0.56%)
S&P 500 1,169.57 -4.22 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.362 -0.12 (-0.27%)

NYSE Volume 345,872,000
Nasdaq Volume 334,993,000

[UpInArms]

43. Support Levels (from yesterday's thread)

                    DJIA  SP500  NASDAQ


2nd Upside Target 10975 1235 2100

1st Upside Target 10750 1210 2070


Resistance     10625   1200 2015-30

Support        10350    1165 1970


1st Downside Target 9950 1140 1900

2nd Downside Target 9650 1100 1850


Ike Iossif

[54anickel]

48. Guess we'll have to watch the S&P for that mysterious 990N or whatever

that trader's number was. I gotta go find that again.

Edit to fix 990N. Sheesh, the say the memory is the first thing to go. :silly:

[UpInArms]

45. SEC enforcement chief Cutler resigning

Oversaw probes at Enron, Adelphia, Qwest and others

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B73F7E0E3%2D86E6%2D4E1C%2D87FC%2D0985D14D0566%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Stephen Cutler, the Securities and Exchange Commission's top enforcement officer, will leave the agency in about a month to return to the private sector, the SEC said on Thursday.

Cutler, 43, was named enforcement director in October 2001 and oversaw numerous headline-making investigations including Enron, WorldCom, Adelphia, Qwest and HealthSouth. During his watch the SEC brought charges against high-profile executives Kenneth Lay, Jeffrey Skilling, Dennis Kozlowski, Richard Scrushy and others.

"I have had the very good fortune to work with an extraordinary group of colleagues during an historic period for the commission and our capital markets," Cutler said in a statement. "I am proud to have been a part of the agency's efforts and considerable accomplishments in the enforcement arena," he said.

SEC Chairman William Donaldson called Cutler "an outstanding leader of the commission's enforcement program.

...more...

Hot Damn! Now it's a free-for-all! (as if it wasn't before :sarcasm: )

[UpInArms]

49. 10:31 EST DOW/Nasd below support and falling

Dow 10,345.48 -58.45 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,959.23 -15.14 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 1,168.15 -5.64 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.362 -0.12 (-0.27%)

NYSE Volume 482,880,000
Nasdaq Volume 456,735,000

[UpInArms]

50. blather

10:30AM: Major indices spike to fresh session lows despite a decline in oil prices to below $50/bbl... From an economic standpoint the pullback in oil prices is certainly a good thing; however, it is noteworthy that the stock market hasn't been more enthused by the retreat... Arguably, there may be concern that, as oil prices come off, energy stocks, which have comprised one of the few pockets of strength for the broader market, may follow... On that note, oil prices have dropped 13.0% from their April 4 high, while over that same period, the Energy sector has declined 6.1%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1094/1716, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1030/1530

are the faeries showing up?

[54anickel]

53. 10:41 - was there any doubt on the fairies? Hope they've got plenty

of pixie dust - it's gonna be a long day.

Dow 10,358.33 -45.60 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,962.99 -11.38 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,169.03 -4.76 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.364% -0.01
NYSE Volume 577,451,000
Nasdaq Volume 531,241,000


edit for html and to add the following support numbers

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

DOW: 10,350
S&P: 1,165
NAS: 1,970

[UpInArms]

54. 10:46 EST (faeries or vultures?)

Dow 10,359.22 -44.71 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,963.14 -11.23 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,169.65 -4.14 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.360 -0.14 (-0.32%)

NYSE Volume 583,791,000
Nasdaq Volume 537,045,000

[54anickel]

55. We need that little buy/sell lemmings graphic!

[MARALE]

94. From Maeve

Had to search for this one, sorry it took so long.

[UpInArms]

96. thanks Marale!

:yourock:

[UpInArms]

52. Blue chips fall to 5-month low

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9079373E%2D04E5%2D4FC9%2DAF86%2DD253170AE396%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled to a five-month low Thursday amid concern over a slowdown in the economy, with a mixed batch of earnings reports further weighing on sentiment.

The Dow industrials ($INDU: news, chart, profile) was last down 57 points at 10,345, its lowest level intraday since Nov. 5.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) fell 14 points to 1,960.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) was off nearly 6 points at 1,167.95.

"It's follow-through from yesterday," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management. "Yesterday's retail sales numbers has garnished massive media coverage on an (economic) slowdown."

And fear of an economic slowdown is affecting the way investors look at the latest earnings reports, said Paulsen.

...more...

[UpInArms]

58. 11:12 EST numbers and blather (abrupt reversal)

Dow 10,377.18 -26.75 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,968.03 -6.34 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,172.30 -1.49 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.352 -0.22 (-0.50%)

NYSE Volume 742,523,000
Nasdaq Volume 659,889,000

11:00AM: More of the same as selling remains widespread and market internals still suggest a bearish bias... Decliners on the NYSE hold a more than 2 to 1 advantage over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 17 to 9 margin... Meanwhile, the Dow - which since 1950 has averaged a gain of 1.9% in April and earmarked the month as its best - has recently touched a new low (10343) for 2005 while the Nasdaq has slipped to its lowest level (1962) since last October...

The S&P, however, has shown resilience, finding enough support near the 1168 mark to prevent the index from falling below its lowest level (1163) of the year...NYSE Adv/Dec 960/2000, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 950/1717

[UpInArms]

59. Layoffs, revenue range misses to hit Spherion

http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2005/04/11/daily42.html?jst=b_ln_hl

Spherion has lowered its first quarter revenue guidance and disclosed a plan to eliminate certain positions. While the staffing company has filed no formal layoff plan with the state, media reports suggest that, of the 85 workers Spherion will dismiss, 17 are in South Florida.

The main reason for the cutbacks is Spherion (NYSE: SFN) has lost a contract, commonly believed to be with IBM Corp. Though it disclosed its plans in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Wednesday, Spherion did not give the name of its departed client.

The Fort Lauderdale-based company also did not give a specific dollar amount for the change in its first quarter revenue. Whereas it had expected that number to be $510 million to $530 million, Spherion now said it expects revenue "slightly below" that estimate.

The company also said it anticipates earnings from continuing operations to be reduced by 2 cents a share for certain restructuring costs, or at the low end of its range.

Spherion also said its cutback plan, approved April 8, will cost it a $2 million restructuring charge in the first period. The company noted the charge, which is for severance costs, will result in about $2 million in cash expenditures to be incurred in fiscal 2005.

...more...

[UpInArms]

62. Product Recalls:

Maytag recalls 636,000 vacuums with defective switch

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.4624377315-834157451&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Maytag Corp. (MYG) is recalling about 636,000 Hoover self-propelled upright vacuum cleaners that have a defective on/off switch that could overheat, the company and the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said Thursday. The switches on the vacuums, manufactured between May 1998 and November 1999, can overheat handle and toolbar areas, resulting in a fire hazard. Maytag received 249 reports of overheating that caused the handle area to smoke, melt or catch fire, and one minor burn injury was reported. Shares of Maytag fell 1.6% to $14.61 in recent trading.

Honda Recalls ATVs Over Steering Rods

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2005/04/14/ap1946944.html

American Honda Motor Co. is recalling about 200,000 all-terrain vehicles after receiving more than two dozen reports of steering rods separating, which could cause drivers to crash.

The Torrance, Calif., company has not received any injury reports related to its 2004 and 2005 FourTrax ATVs, the Consumer Product Safety Commission said Thursday.

Honda motorcycle dealers nationwide sold the ATVs, which were made in the United States and came in red, olive, yellow or blue, from August 2003 to February 2005 for $3,600 to $8,000.

Recalled model numbers:

...numbers and warning at link...

[UpInArms]

63. Bankruptcy fees could skyrocket

The reform bill before the House on Thursday may also make it more difficult to find legal help.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/12/pf/bankruptcy_fees/?cnn=yes

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – Those who are least able to pay their bills are likely to see a price hike in the coming months if they file for bankruptcy.

And, many predict, they'll be less likely to find a lawyer willing to help them.

The House on Thursday is expected to debate and pass a bankruptcy reform bill. The Senate has already passed its version, and House approval would virtually guarantee that the bill becomes law.

Under the new law, bankruptcy attorneys would be liable for any misleading statements or inaccuracies in a client's case. As a result, attorneys say, they'll have to invest far more time and effort – in some cases hiring accountants and other experts – to verify all the information clients give them, down to examining receipts.

In a cost-estimate report, the Congressional Budget Office said that complying with the provisions of the bill is likely to increase attorney costs by $150 to $500. "Some of those additional costs," the report noted, "would most likely be passed onto their clients."

That may be a modest assessment.

...more...

[54anickel]

64. Don't Say He Didn't Warn You (A look at Volcker's warnings)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north362.html

snip>

On Friday, the 13th of August, 1982, Mexico's government announced that it was considering the nationalization Western banks and threatened to default on its foreign debt. The world's banking system teetered on the brink of paralysis. With Volcker acting as the coordinator, Western central banks responded by promising doses of liquidity (fiat money) and loan renegotiations. In September, the Mexican government did nationalize all private Mexican banks and took over the control of capital flows.

The weekend of August 13 marked the beginning of the U.S. stock market boom that lasted until 2000, with only the one-day worldwide correction of over 20% in October, 1987 – Greenspan's first week on the job – to mar the boom. The FED adopted monetary inflation, thereby ending three years of tight money.

Volcker testified before Congress on a regular basis, as required by Federal law – the only law that Congress enforces on the quasi-autonomous FED. At 6 feet 7, he is an impressive figure. He imitated Red Auerbach, the coach of the Boston Celtics, who would light a cigar when he thought a game was as good as lost for the Celtics' opponent. Volcker puffed cigars at Congress. In contrast, Greenspan, a far less impressive figure, has adopted a linguistic strategy to befuddle rather than overpower Congressmen: verbal smoke rather than tobacco smoke. Both approaches work just fine.

Volcker generally was forthright. He basically told Congress to fly a kite. He told them what he was going to do, and then he did it. They never laid a glove on him. He had a well-deserved reputation for not sugar-coating bad news.

more...

[UpInArms]

66. 12:08 EST numbers and blather (bleeding badly)

Dow 10,345.85 -58.08 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,961.88 -12.49 (-0.63%)
S&P 500 1,169.29 -4.50 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 994,380,000
Nasdaq Volume 851,973,000

12:00 ET Dow -53, Nasdaq -12, S&P -4.16
Major indices remain under pressure midday, as concerns over slowing economic growth amid mixed earnings and guidance weigh on sentiment... Even though most of the earnings reports have checked in better than analysts expected, a sell the news reaction has underpinned a negative tone to trading... For instance, Apple Computer (AAPL 38.90 -2.14) handily beat analysts Q2 forecasts and issued upside Q3 EPS guidance, but a cautious Q3 sales outlook has invited selling pressure in the stock that has spread through the rest of the technology sector... Other notable names posting strong earnings reports today have been PEP, LUV, UNH, DJ, NAV and PGR; but perhaps more earnings data may be needed to get the market back on track, as it is still too early in the earnings season to draw more optimistic conclusions... A breakdown in key technical levels has also had an impact on equity trading, as both the Dow and the Nasdaq have touched new lows for 2005 while the S&P has found modest support just above its lowest levels of the year... Meanwhile, market participants have found little else to get excited about following the Nasdaq's worst performance (-1.6%) in two months, as activity in Treasurys has been quiet all morning - as the 10-yr note is up 1 tick yielding 4.35% - amid lackluster economic data and oil's influence on trading continues to deteriorate... Both weekly jobless claims (330K) and Feb business inventories (+0.5%) have both checked in exactly as expected while crude oil prices ($50.60/bbl +$0.38), despite quickly falling through $50/bbl, have also been of little interest to investors as concerns over a weakening economy continue to hold precedence... Eight out of 10 economic sectors continue to trade lower, with Materials (-1.6%) pacing the way for the second consecutive session due to slowing demand for Steel (-3.6%) and strength in the dollar... The greenback has hit a two-year high against the euro (1.2816) after the ECB said there are "no clear signs" of accelerated growth in the euro region... Technology has been weak across the board, led by losses in Hardware (-1.6%) - due in part to Apple's cautious Q3 sales outlook - while Transportation (-2.2%) has been weak following downgrades on a few railroad stocks... Airline (+2.2%), however, remains strong following better than expected earnings from Southwest Airlines (LUV 15.04 +0.32) while Energy (+0.4%), due to higher oil prices, and Drug (+0.6%), amid decent follow through from yesterday's strong performance, have also posted modest gains... Consumer Staples (+0.3%) has also found modest buying interest amid better than expected Q1 earnings and raised FY05 guidance from Pepsi (PEP 54.96 +1.33)... ..DJUA -0.4%. ..SOX -0.3%. ..DOT -0.7%. ..XOI +0.7%. ..BTK -0.4%. ..Nasdaq 100 -0.7%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -0.5%. ..Russell 2000 -0.4%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1128/1987. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1090/1718.

[UpInArms]

67. Commentary: Companies obfuscate, analysts play along

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD388A1B6%2DC0E0%2D4C31%2DBDAA%2D9E45F945228E%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- If it were a movie, the recent trend toward lower-quality corporate earnings reports might be called "Son of Pro Forma," or "Return of the Lies."

Whatever the title, it's a horror sequel that investors would rather not see.

Yet some prominent technology companies, aided by Wall Street analysts who once again seem to have misplaced their backbones, are trying to bring this feature back to a quarterly earnings statement near you.

A report last month from Merrill Lynch confirmed what many earnings watchers have suspected for some time.

The gap between net income computed using generally accepted accounting principles, known as GAAP earnings, and the earnings numbers relayed in company earnings statements, known by a variety of misleading euphemisms, is widening.

In fact, the GAAP gap, after improving for two consecutive years, is now close to 15%, worse than it was during the height of the stock market bubble.

...more...

[54anickel]

70. Well, isn't that just duckie?...n/t

[UpInArms]

69. Dow Jones Profit Falls on Fewer Ads (in WSJ)

Have they gotten rid of John Fund yet?

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8182508

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dow Jones & Co Inc. (DJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday reported its quarterly profit fell by more than half, dragged down by weaker advertising sales at its flagship Wall Street Journal newspaper.

First-quarter net profit totaled $8.2 million, or 10 cents a diluted share, compared with $17.8 million, or 22 cents a share, in the same period last year.

Excluding special items, profit totaled 11 cents a share. On that basis, analysts were expecting profit of 10 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

<snip>

"We continue to battle a persistently difficult B2B (business-to-business) print advertising climate particularly in the technology category," Peter Kann, the company's chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. "However, heading into the second quarter, we are cautiously optimistic that advertising trends will improve."

...more...

maybe they didn't read that Challenger Report about all those tech cuts? :shakeshead:

[UpInArms]

71. (Fed) Treasury's Taylor: Oil can't derail global growth

tailormade spin:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.5172238889-834159485&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Global economic growth is so strong that higher oil prices won't derail the expansion, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor said Thursday ahead of weekend meetings of the Group of Seven, International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Taylor said he sees nothing but continued expansion in the United States, despite signs of a soft patch. "We have a good thing going," he said. Taylor said he expects financial leaders to make progress on an agreement to cancel debts of very poor countries. The Treasury official also said China is now technically ready to adopt a more flexible foreign exchange rate.

12:15pm 04/14/05 TAYLOR: CHINA IS READY FOR FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE NOW

12:15pm 04/14/05 TAYLOR SEES MOVEMENT ON CANCELLING THIRD WORLD DEBTS

12:15pm 04/14/05 TAYLOR: U.S. EXPANSION 'STILL VERY SOLID'

12:15pm 04/14/05 TREASURY'S TAYLOR: OIL CAN'T DERAIL GLOBAL GROWTH

[Tace]

73. Odd -- A Creature From Another Dimension Is In Our Midst

Must be a problem with the space-time matrix. These non-reality-based entities sure can be strange. : )

[UpInArms]

100. here's the cloned sibling - spewing equally disturbed speech patterns

Fed's Kohn sees solid growth, contained inflation

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.6670414583-834166712&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy likely will remain on a "path of solid growth" and inflationary pressures are likely to moderate, Federal Reserve Gov. Donald Kohn said Thursday. Speaking at a Fed conference in San Francisco, Kohn said he favors a gradual approach to monetary policy, considering that "substantial uncertainty" surrounds the outlook for both growth and inflation.

[UpInArms]

74. GM falls after word of SEC subpoena (more malfeasance)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B36DF2889%2DC2F8%2D4901%2DB428%2DF2C13E3D7A33%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. shares fell more than 6% on Thursday after the beleaguered automaker said it will hand over to U.S. regulators documents relating to an ongoing investigation into Delphi Corp.'s accounting.

In afternoon trading, GM's stock plumbed decade lows, off $1.73, or 6.1%, at $26.60.

The Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenaed information concerning certain transactions with auto-parts maker Delphi (DPH: news, chart, profile) , spun off from GM (GM: news, chart, profile) in 1999.

Delphi's investigation has centered around $237 million in cash payments made to GM in 2000 as well as $85 million in credits received from GM in 2001.

A Wall Street Journal report on Wednesday called into question the former parent's role in the accounting of these items.

Experts interviewed by the newspaper cast doubt on the quality of GM's earnings. Specifically, the $237 million pretax payment helped the company top analyst targets by one penny a share, as opposed to coming up short 28 cents without it, the Journal reported.

...more...

[loudsue]

78. Sheesh! Bad boys are everywhere under crooked republican regimes.

When are the people with $$ invested in all these companies going to start making the connection between the GOP mantra "regulation is bad", and the reason why these stocks are taking a hit? Foxes guarding the hen house, and all that.

No wonder the GOP hates lawyers and judges....except when it BENEFITS them, of course. All of their biggest supporters are crooks!

:kick:

[UpInArms]

75. NY firm to repay those overcharged in proceeds deals ($1.2M)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.5392453241-834162370&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - The National Association of Securities Dealers Thursday said Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. has agreed to refund $1.2 million, plus interest, to customers overcharged in "proceeds transactions" - transactions in which a customer sells securities through a broker and uses the proceeds to pay for other securities purchased at or about the same time. NASD also fined Ladenburg $275,000 and required the New York firm to retain an independent consultant to make recommendations for ensuring compliance with NASD's Proceeds Rule.

[54anickel]

77. When it rains, it pours! HA! Gotta run for the day!...eom

[UpInArms]

76. 1:09 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,336.62 -67.31 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,959.42 -14.95 (-0.76%)
S&P 500 1,168.07 -5.72 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.370 -0.04 (-0.09%)

NYSE Volume 1,226,561,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,024,999,000

1:00PM: Broader market action leaves little to be desired, but there are some individual stories of note that are generating excitement... Shares of Kerr-McGee (KMG 79.11 +5.14) have surged after announcing plans to buy back up to $4.0 bln of its stock (between $85 and $92 a share)... Mentor Corp (MNT 37.92 +2.59) has also surged after an FDA panel surprisingly voted in favor of its silicone breast implants returning to the market while shares of Sherwin-Williams (SHW 45.56 +2.05) have climbed after the company raised FY05 guidance amid better than expected Q1 earnings... NYSE Adv/Dec 1116/2038, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1035/1844

12:30PM: Sellers remain in control of the action as the major averages continue to trade near session lows... On the Dow, General Motors (GM 27.27 -1.06) has paced the way to the downside, amid reports that criminals have obtained personal data related to its company-branded MasterCard... Alcoa (AA 29.83 -0.57), Caterpillar (CAT 86.94 -1.66) and DuPont (DD 48.19 -0.50) have also been under pressure, arguably victims of a stronger dollar, while defensive components like Coca-Cola (KO 42.30 +0.20), Proctor & Gamble (PG 55.43 +0.22) and Altria (MO 66.09 +0.22) have actually faired rather well... NYSE Adv/Dec 1080/2050, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1054/1772

looks like there was more than one reason for GM to tank

[UpInArms]

79. 1:19 EST numbers - all 3 supports are gone - treasuries now red also

Dow 10,301.72 -102.21 (-0.98%)
Nasdaq 1,954.10 -20.27 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,164.53 -9.26 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 4.376 +0.02 (+0.05%)

NYSE Volume 1,284,635,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,074,998,000

[UpInArms]

81. 1:32 EST numbers and blather (DOW under 10,300)

Dow 10,298.55 -105.38 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,950.38 -23.99 (-1.22%)
S&P 500 1,163.90 -9.89 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 4.359 -0.15 (-0.34%)

NYSE Volume 1,346,181,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,128,731,000

1:30 Bearish tone persists in stocks as the indices extend their reach into negative territory... The lack of sector leadership continues to weigh on the proceedings, as the major indices have again failed to find support near key technical levels... The S&P 500, however, continues to vacillate just above its Jan/March lows near the 1163 level... Also of note, widespread weakness in small caps - which have paced this year's declines - has taken the Russell 2000 Index below the psychological 600 level for the first time since last November... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 934/2258. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 907/1999.

[loudsue]

83. The PPT either went to lunch or the golf course....they'd better get back

to work!

Lots and lots of blood in those numbers!

:kick:

[UpInArms]

86. 2:09 EST numbers and blather (weak fairy appearance)

Dow 10,319.54 -84.39 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 1,956.39 -17.98 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,166.25 -7.54 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 -0.13 (-0.30%)

NYSE Volume 1,541,345,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,284,758,000

2:00PM: Indices continue to languish near session lows as buying interest remains scarce across the board... Perhaps some of the hesitation on the part of buyers could be tied to subdued action in Treasurys, in light of another bond auction... After all, yesterday's meager indirect bidder participation of 28.2% in the 5-year note auction lifted yields on the 10-year note (4.38%) and subsequently pushed the indices to unrecoverable levels...

However, even though today's $9 bln 10-year TIPS auction grabbed a more respectable indirect bidder participation of 42.4% (near an average of 44.3%), relatively quiet action in bonds - driven primarily by technicals ahead of tomorrow's economic data - has been overshadowed by the fact that nine of ten economic sectors remain underwater...NYSE Adv/Dec 786/2438, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 830/2117

[UpInArms]

80. CFTC charges ex-Western Gas Resources natgas trader (manipulating gas $)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.5501510532-834162805&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced Thursday it filed a civil injunction charging Andrew Richmond with manipulating natural gas prices. The CFTC accused Richmond of reporting bogus natural gas prices and trading volumes to a trade publication between April 2000 and February 2001 while he was director of marketing at Western Gas Resources, Inc. (WGR) . Movement in published index prices can affect traders' profits and inflate prices that electric utilities and businesses pay for natural gas. The complaint also claims Richmond pressured two subordinates into reporting false information.

looks like the liars, cheats and thieves have been and continue to run the show :eyes:

[The_Casual_Observer]

82. A couple of more days of this, and the "year end good will rally "

will be completely wiped out, along with tons of 401K mutual fund contributions. However, we still have Jesus, and gays can't marry.

[naderzenithnow]

84. No good will rally. That was a W will con them out of their SS rally.

Wheeeee all the way down! I'm out now. Throw your hands in the air like you just don't care.

[loudsue]

87. LOL! "Throw your hands in the air like you just don't care"

We got out of the market last night, and I'm glad we did! Moved all the 401K money into a money market tagged to prime rates.

You're probably right about the point you made: Hardcore Stock Exchange bigwigs are figuring out that there won't be any big influx of SS money anywhere in the near future, as bush numbers keep dropping with every apearance at his phony townhall meetings.

:kick:

[UpInArms]

88. 3:07 EST numbers and blather (will dust appear to staunch the bleeding?)

Dow 10,311.74 -92.19 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,952.82 -21.55 (-1.09%)
S&P 500 1,165.38 -8.41 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.354 -0.20 (-0.46%)

NYSE Volume 1,846,044,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,522,953,000

3:00PM: Major indices continue to chalk up losses, spearheaded by broad-based selling in technology... While losses in excess of 1.0% have been realized in every tech sub-sector, Computer Hardware (-2.4%) continues to account for the most weakness... Profit taking in Apple Computer (AAPL 37.24 -3.80) has added the most pressure to the group, but weakness in shares of Sun Microsystems (SUNW 3.89 -0.12), ahead of its earnings report tonight, has also weighed on the space... Analysts expect SUNW to breakeven in Q3, following a loss of $0.08 a year ago, on revenues of $2.72 bln... SOX -1.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 873/2420, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 893/2108

2:30PM: Market pares some of its losses, as buyers step in late in the day to selectively pick up shares, but the indices remain under pressure... Attracting much of the renewed interest in a down market have been defensive stocks, as Consumer Staples (+0.2%) and Health Care (+0.2%) - amid strong follow through in the Drug space - have both recently turned positive and cling to modest gains... Energy (+0.5%), however, has seen the biggest turnaround, as short-covering in crude oil futures ($51.35/bbl +$1.13) has sent oil to fresh session highs heading into the close of commodities trading... NYSE Adv/Dec 842/2424, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 973/1996

[UpInArms]

91. 3:32 EST numbers (clock is ticking)

Dow 10,321.47 -82.46 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq 1,954.00 -20.37 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,166.62 -7.17 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 2,012,964,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,659,350,000

will the faeries keep it above 10,300?

will the S&P hold at the support level?

so many questions, so little time :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

92. adding blather

3:30PM: Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges, as the major averages continue to drift sideways in negative territory going into the close... Meanwhile, although today's in-line economic data had little impact on market action, a slew of economic data tomorrow should provide investors with another perspective on the economy...

At 8:30 ET, April NY Empire State Index (consensus 18.0) will be released while Mar. Industrial Production (consensus +0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.6%) will be out 9:15 ET and a preliminary read on April Consumer Sentiment (consensus 91.7) will hit the wires 15 minutes after the market opens... Earnings reports from General Electric (GE 35.73 +0.09) and Citigroup (C 45.41 -0.40) could also be influential factors...NYSE Adv/Dec 827/2481, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 858/2139

and at 3:41, continuing to slide on down

Dow 10,296.41 -107.52 (-1.03%)
Nasdaq 1,950.30 -24.07 (-1.22%)
S&P 500 1,164.59 -9.20 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 2,068,998,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,707,499,000

[RawMaterials]

95. 3:51 EST Numbers

Dow 10280.52 -123.41 (-1.19%)
Nasdaq 1948.58 -25.79 (-1.31%)
S&P 500 1162.43 -11.36 (-0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358% -0.16

NYSE Volume 2,157,676,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,774,950,000

[UpInArms]

98. Dow poised for first 2-day triple-digit loss in 8 mos

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.6593431134-834166461&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Dow industrials ($INDU) were down triple digits to fall below the 10,300 level for the first time since Nov. 4. If the Dow were to close at current levels, it would mark the first back-to-back triple-digit losses in over 8 months, when the Dow fell 163 points on Aug. 5 and 148 points on Aug. 6. The Dow was last down 118 points at 10,286 after shedding 104 points on Wednesday.

[UpInArms]

89. Act while times are good: IMF chief (dollar warning)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBD54D5B8%2DBFDB%2D48EE%2DA165%2D35C76DBA6242%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

IMF officials are frustrated that more action hasn't been taken to address the United State's record level of foreign indebtedness.

The IMF is worried that U.S. deficits could lead to a severe drop in the value of the dollar and perhaps higher interest rates.

Last October, the IMF has set out a reform program that includes the U.S. cutting its fiscal budget deficit and increasing household savings, Europe and Japan freeing up their economies to increase domestic demand, and China moving towards a more flexible currency.

But the IMF says there has been only limited movement on these reforms.

...more...

[UpInArms]

93. National City investigating Fannie Mae charges

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.6545881944-834166236&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- National City Corp. (NCC) on Thursday said it is investigating loans that mortgage giant Fannie Mae (FNM) said were originated using "unacceptable" practices. Cleveland-based National City said any financial exposure from the loans would be "immaterial." Shares of National City fell 61 cents to $33 in late trading.

[UpInArms]

102. Fannie: Mortgage fraud report proposal would boost legal risk

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B39BD1B5A%2D805B%2D425C%2DAD04%2DE3E55D3E6F8E%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A proposal to require Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) to report mortgage fraud and possible mortgage fraud in a timely fashion would expose them to "significant legal risk because no safe harbor exists to protect the companies from actions that may result from their disclosure of information," Fannie Mae said.

"This increase in legal risk could diminish the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Fannie Mae said in a recent comment letter to its regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

In proposing the mortgage fraud reporting rule in late February, OFHEO cited a case where Fannie Mae failed to inform Ginnie Mae about a fraud of which Fannie was aware and which victimized Ginnie Mae, a federal entity whose formal name is the Government National Mortgage Association.

"The lack of a safe harbor from liability leaves open the possibility that Fannie Mae would be subject to civil lawsuits after reporting to OFHEO suspected mortgage fraud that was later determined to be negligent or non-fraudulent activity," Fannie Mae said.

...more...

ah, the wonderous age of accountability :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

97. Kerr-McGee debt cut to junk by S&P

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.6615140625-834166541&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's said Thursday it cut the corporate credit rating on Kerr-McGee to BB-plus/B, junk status, from an investment grade BBB-minus/A-3, following the oil and gas producer's decision to hold a modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer for up to $4 billion of stock. S&P's move follows a similar move by Fitch Ratings earlier in the session. Though Kerr-McGee's (KMG) stock is up 7.1% at $79.20, its bonds were being hammered. The spread, or difference in yield to a comparable, lower-risk Treasury, on its 6.95% bond due 2024 widened 53 basis points to 2.53%.

[UpInArms]

99. Commentary: Nasdaq breaks several key support levels

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC6D4A43F%2DFBE3%2D45E0%2D9809%2D609BC5B3BE6F%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Simply speaking, the outlook for the Nasdaq Composite's chart is no longer optimistic.

That's because the technology rich index has done what it couldn't do in three previous attempts -- break through significant technical and psychological support at 1,970.

But that's not all.

There were a number of other technical indicators that converged to make the 1,970 to 1,990 level a very important area for bulls to defend. But after several tests, bulls were finally overrun.

In late afternoon trading on Thursday, the Nasdaq ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) was down 21 points at a 6-month low of 1,954.

And momentum has now swung decidedly in the bears' direction.

<snip>

What made the 1,970 level so significant was it marked the 50% retracement level of the rally off the Aug. 13, 2004 low of 1,750 to the Jan. 3 high of 2,191. That move may have lasted only 4 1/2-months, but it was critical for bulls, because it saved the dire-looking Nasdaq from posting a losing 2004, and injected some optimism by taking it up to a 3 1/2-year high. See interactive java chart.

The initial test of that level occurred on March. 9, when the index hit a low of 1,968, and bulls passed with flying colors. The Nasdaq bounced slightly to close at 1,973, then took off on a 32-point, or 1.6-percent jaunt the next day.

...more...

[UpInArms]

101. After the Bell: Sun Micro posts $9 million third-quarter loss

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38456.6702411574-834166980&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sun Microsystems (SUNW) on Thursday reported a third-quarter loss of $9 million, to break even on a per-share basis, on revenue of $2.625 billion. During the same period a year ago, Sun lost $760 million or 23 cents a share, on revenue of $2.65 billion. Excluding charges, Sun lost 61 million, or 2 cents a share, to miss the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call, who expected Sun to break even on $2.74 billion in revenue.

Now that's gonna leave a bruise!

[UpInArms]

103. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,278.75 -125.18 (-1.20%)
Nasdaq 1,946.71 -27.66 (-1.40%)
S&P 500 1,162.05 -11.74 (-1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 2,353,683,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,893,650,000

Close: The major indices added to yesterday's thrashing, as concerns about slowing economic growth and corporate earnings kept buyers on the sidelines and closed every economic sector in negative territory... The Dow hit a five-month low while the Nasdaq, which raised a "correction" red flag now that it's off more than 10% in 2005, and the S&P also touched new lows for the year... Just a couple of weeks ago, investors were concerned about inflationary pressures stemming from a growing economy...

Now, the market appears to be unnerved by exactly the opposite - a slowing economy, as demand for commodities like steel and oil has continued to deteriorate... The latter even managed to fall through the $50/bbl mark for the first time since Feb 22, albeit temporarily, before short-covering helped lift the commodity 1.8% to close at $51.13/bbl (+$0.91)... But just as falling oil prices over the last two weeks weren't a source of strength for stocks, it would be a contradiction in the current environment to suggest that rising oil prices were a source of weakness behind today's broad-based move to the downside...

The lack of sector leadership, however, was a huge factor behind today's disappointing performance, as the indices again failed to find support near key technical levels... All ten economic sectors closed lower, with Materials (-2.8%) pacing the way for the second consecutive session due to slowing demand for Steel (-3.6%) and strength in the dollar... The greenback hit a two-year high against the euro (1.2818) and a monthly high against the yen (108.13) after the ECB said there are "no clear signs" of accelerated growth in the euro region... Technology (-1.3%) was weak across the board, with losses in excess of 1.0% witnessed in every sub-sector...

See you tomorrow Marketeers! :hi:

[Zynx]

104. There are some nicely beat up stocks out there for the picking.

The market has not been this oversold on a technical basis in a while.

[AnneD]

105. I'm sure

there will be some people looking for those 'blue light specials' tomorrow.

[54anickel]

106. Heh, meanwhile the buck climbs ever higher - not a care in the world

cuz ya know, deficits just don't matter.

Last trade 85.08 Change +0.59 (+0.70%)

Settle 85.00 Settle Time 16:34

Open 84.64 Previous Close 84.42

High 85.32 Low 84.39

[fedsron2us]

107. For those seeking a sign from the stars

the financial astrologer, Raymond Merriman, had the following to say in his Market Week report on the 11 April 2005

As we look at the trading behavior of the U.S. stock market last week, we note that the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped to its lowest point of the New Year last Monday, April 4. It fell to 10,330, a level not seen since the first week of November, when the U.S. presidential election took place. That low was not accompanied by a new low in either the S&P or the NASDAQ futures indices, both of which bottomed Tuesday, March 29, a week earlier. This pattern is known as an “Intermarket Bullish Divergence,” where one index makes a new cycle low and other related indices do not, and is usually followed by a tradable rally. And since Monday, April, 4, the U.S. stock indices indeed rallied into the end of the week, which is the center of the “critical reversal zone.” The high occurred late Thursday and early Friday, before selling off into the close of the week.

The U.S. stock market is thus at a very important juncture. Since a notable low did occur within the allowable “orb” for a reversal on Monday, April 4, and it was accompanied by an Intermarket bullish divergence signal, it is possible that it could represent a primary cycle trough. It would be 3 trading days before the midpoint of the cluster, which is April 7-8. If that is the case, then the U.S. stock market is in the very early stages of a new primary cycle that will probably see prices test or exceed their highs of March 7, which was the highest price in over three years. That new high would likely be realized before the end of summer, and probably even before the end of June.

But it is also possible that the critical reversal date could coincide with the end of this rally that started on April 4. After all, Thursday-Friday was right in the middle of the critical reversal zone, which continues to be in effect through next Wednesday. If the critical reversal zone coincides with the end of this rally on Thursday-Friday, then the U.S. stock market could be in a whole lot of trouble for a very long time. If prices reverse downward from here and take out the lows of last week, it keeps open the possibility that the highs seen on March 7 will not be seen again for the remainder of this decade.

<snip>

So where does that leave us for this coming week? If the market continues higher beyond this coming week (above 10,560 in the DJIA), the bull market is still intact. If the market tops out right now, and commences a decline below 10,330 in the DJIA that extends beyond this coming week, then it is likely a new bear market is in force.

http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

Now I may just be a superstitious old fish wife but it seems to me that April 4 low was taken out today. If Merriman is right then it is time to sell and head for the hills.

[54anickel]

108. Heh-heh, there's always a 50/50 chance! Damn, I haven't gotten to

say that in a long time. :evilgrin:

Could go up, could go down. Never underestimate the power of cheese greed (Or the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets).

[NeoConsSuck]

110. I think Friday is Dead Cat Bounce

and then next week the shit hits the fan.

[Zynx]

111. Thereafter I expect a pretty good bounce.

It doesn't necessarily have staying power, but I think there will be one.