Slight Majority Says Bush Deserves Re-Election (and Clark Leads Democrats)

[DoveTurnedHawk]

The election for president is little more than a year away, and if the election were held today, the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll suggests President George W. Bush would be re-elected in a close race. That poll shows 53% of registered voters saying Bush deserves re-election. However, as many registered voters currently say they will definitely not vote for Bush (38%) as say they will definitely vote for him (38%). On the Democratic side, retired Gen. Wesley Clark continues to lead the field for that party's nomination in a rather tightly contested race. Gallup data from the past month show that the Rev. Al Sharpton continues to be the top choice among black Democrats. Generally speaking, more Americans say they are pleased with the field of candidates running for president in 2004 than say they wish others would join the race.

<...>

The poll also asked Democrats (including independents who lean to the Democratic Party) about their preferences for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2004. The results are consistent with what Gallup has been finding for the past month, with Clark holding a slim lead over the eight other candidates. With 18% support among Democrats registered to vote, Clark leads a second tier of candidates, which includes Howard Dean (13%), Joe Lieberman (13%), John Kerry (11%), and Dick Gephardt (10%). A third tier of candidates includes Al Sharpton (6%), John Edwards (6%), Carol Moseley Braun (5%), and Dennis Kucinich (3%).

Clark has led the Democratic field in Gallup Polls ever since he formally announced his candidacy in mid-September. Dean's support began to increase in the early summer months and he has been in double digits since July. Dean's and Clark's ascensions have come at the expense of Lieberman, Kerry, and Gephardt. This latter group of candidates have all served in Congress and are nationally recognized political figures. Their earlier standing could thus be attributed to their greater name recognition rather than any particular appeal of their campaigns. Support for these three had been in at least the mid-to-high teens (Lieberman's support often exceeded 20%) in the earlier part of this year, but now their support levels have settled into the 10% to 13% range.

One key Democratic constituency -- blacks -- shows very different preferences for the nomination. A combined sample of black Democrats from the last three Gallup Polls show Sharpton as the leading candidate among blacks. Twenty-two percent of blacks say they support Sharpton for the nomination, giving him a nine-point edge over Clark and 10 points over Lieberman. No other candidate gets double-digit support among black Democrats, and about one in five do not express a preference.

<...>

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031022.asp

DTH

[pmbryant]

1. Unfortunately, I don't think Gallup has much credibility anymore.

They seem to be one of the least reliable polling outfits these days.

--Peter

[Flubadubya]

2. I really don't trust CNN/Gallup polls anymore....

After that one last week showing Shrub's approval rating had soared to 56% (overnight) while others had him at only 50% or below made me a complete NONbeliever in CNN/Gallup polls. Feh!

[diplomats]

6. The numbers in this article are from that poll

[Flubadubya]

7. If it's the same poll...

then this isn't even news.

[diplomats]

10. It is the same poll

I don't know why it took Gallup a week to write an article about it; the article's dated Oct. 22.

[spotbird]

3. The poll was conducted two weeks ago

and had Chimps approval at 56%, no one else is showing it as that high any more.

[CatWoman]

4. DTH -- You haven't been paying attention

Gallup's cred is in the toilet.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

9. I Must've Missed It

What was the criticism of Gallup?

DTH

[CatWoman]

11. I'm about to leave the office for the day

There were threads in GD -- don't have time to search at the moment.

[diplomats]

12. They came out a poll that had Bush's approval rising to 56 percent

Of course, Wolf Blitzer, et al made a big deal out of it. The problem is, no other poll has Bush climbing like that. In fact, every other poll since then has him at 47 to 53 percent.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. The spin is incredible

ok 38% will vote for him and 38% against him, but they assume the
undecided will automatically flock to George... usually the undecided
go the other way when the leather hits the pavement if things do not
improve.

[diplomats]

8. That's very true

undecided voters usually go overwhelmingly for the challenger. But since this poll is the only one that doesn't have Bush in the low 50s or high 40s, it has to be considered unreliable.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

13. Yikes!

Did the "re"-elect number go way up?

Mousepads, Shoe Leather, and Hope

[VolcanoJen]

14. More recent polls (Pew, Zogby) show Bush continuing his freefall.

Is this really LBN? This information is from the older, much-contested Gallup Poll taken October 10-12, and has been reported previously in LBN; is this press release from Gallup merely a spin on an old poll, put out to pump up Bush's all-important "Re-Elect" number?

The fascinating "spin" is a news story in itself, but it might be necessary to lock this thread as a dupe of older information.

Here's the previous LBN Discussion about this, from Monday, October 13:

Bush Approval Rating Back Up, Poll Says

Here's the most recent polling data (on Approval, not Re-Elect, question):

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

Pew Research Group (taken Oct 15-19):

Bush Approval: 50%
Bush Disapproval: 42%

Zogby International America (taken Oct 15-18):

Bush Approval: 49%
Bush Disapproval: 51%

Fox News (taken Oct 14-15):

Bush Approval: 52%
Bush Disapproval: 37%

[DoveTurnedHawk]

15. Dunno, That's Your Call

:-)

I posted it because I thought it was a new poll, as it was dated today. I didn't notice the Oct. 10-12 thing until later.

I guess it's a more fundamental question about whether new analysis of old news, generally speaking, is considered LBN.

DTH

[VolcanoJen]

16. DTH, I think it's better to lock this thread.

The linked-to article doesn't contain new polling information, and the polling information has been previously reported in this LBN thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=164434

I think the press release provides some illuminating "spin," however, and I hope you'll repost this new take on old data in the General Discussion Forum.

Thanks, DTH!

:-)
VolcanoJen
DU Moderator