STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 21 November

[ozymandius]

Monday November 21, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 62 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1796 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1495 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1457
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 18, 2005

Dow... 10,766.33 +46.11 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq... 2,227.07 +6.61 (+0.30%)
S&P 500... 1,248.27 +5.47 ( +0.44%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.50% +0.04 (+0.96%)
Gold future... 486.20 -0.70 (-0.14%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Non-Confirmations and the Dow 30 vs. the Wilshire 5000

According to Dow theory, the Secondary trend remains bullish. However, the recent non-confirmation between the Industrials and the Transports remains and this, in spite of the seemingly ever so popular belief that the Dow theory is no longer relevant, is a reason for concern.

It seems that the primary argument I hear from the public is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a mere 30 stocks and that this index is therefore subject to manipulation. In following that logic, let’s look at the broadest index available for the U.S. equity markets: the Wilshire 5000. In the chart below I have plotted the Wilshire 5000 in the upper window and the Dow Jones Transportation Average in the lower window. Note that the non-confirmation is slightly different, but nevertheless still existent despite the fact that this index is nearly 200 times larger than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It would seem to me the fact the DJIA is made up of a mere 30 stocks and supposedly subject to manipulation appears to be, at least so far, a moot point.

-cut-

If we look at an even smaller segment of the Industrials we will find yet another surprising piece of evidence. In the chart below we have the Industrials in the upper window and the Dow Jones Top Ten in the lower window. If I use the logic that the narrower the index the easier it is to manipulate, then any such manipulation would surely be seen in an even narrower index of ten measly stocks, right? Wrong! Note that the Top Ten topped out in January 2004 and by doing so did not confirm the March 2005 highs made by the 30 Industrial stocks, much less the August 2005 high made by the Wilshire 5000. In addition, the Top Ten have not only failed to confirm the recent advance by the Industrials, but is weakest of both the Industrials (30 stocks) and the Wilshire (over 5000 stocks). These charts are telling me that the idea of indexes that are comprised of fewer stocks are more easily manipulated just does not seem to hold water. Yes, it’s a logic argument, but the facts, as seen in the form of price bars on these charts, just does not support the argument.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.58 Change -0.35 (-0.38%)

Dollar Bull Stumbles

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4962&Itemid=39

Traders Corner:

As a trader, I learned not to force trades. I learned the hard way not to push the trades just because I’m bored and there is nothing to do. Market does not always have a trade available, so the best thing to do in situation like this is not to do anything and be patient. Sometimes the best action is the one not taken. But what happens when you go ahead and push anyway, answer is simple, you lose and if you push again you will lose again. The key to becoming a successful trader, is knowing when to stop yourself. A trader must, MUST, know how and when to stop trading and stay out of the market. It’s hard to stop, but it’s important to stop and walk away for sometime when the trades are not going your way, because losing on a couple of trades can turn into a losing streak. If the trader can’t stop trading, he or she will stop eventually when the account runs out of the money. Please feel free to email me at [e-mail] with your comments.

<snip>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls managed to launch a successful counterattack against the dollar longs and quickly pushed the pair above the 1.1800 handle during the latest bout of dollar bearishness. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the dollar defenses around 1.1867, a level established by the July 5 daily low and reinforced by the 23.6 fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 EUR rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the single currency bulls push their way toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level that is being defended by the combination of the 50-day SMA at 1.1986 and a key 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 EUR rally at 1.2001. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the euro bulls a chance to retaliate.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to press with their counterstrike against the greenback longs as the pair tumbled below the 119.00 handle. A further move by the yen longs will most likely see the pair head toward the 118.00 figure, and with a break to the downside most likely seeing the yen long push their way toward the 117.46, a level defended by the 20-day SMA. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the yen bulls test the dollar bids around 116.87, a level established by the November 8 daily low. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 43.20 signaling an existence of a maturing trend not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic and RSI gives the yen longs a chance to retaliate and retrace part of the dollar rally.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. dollar begins the shrinking violet routine

Last trade 91.41 Change -0.52 (-0.57%)

Settle 91.93 Settle Time 23:39

Open 91.85 Previous Close 91.93

High 91.95 Low 91.39

Last tick: 2005-11-21 10:04:51 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

87. U.S. Treasury currency report still coming in November

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T204511Z_01_N21296665_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury Department spokesman said on Monday its report on foreign exchange practices of key trade partners, including China, still is expected this month.

"The foreign exchange report will be out in November," Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto said at a weekly briefing. This is a holiday-shortened week in the United States, since Thursday is Thanksgiving Day.

Treasury Secretary John Snow was working from his home in Richmond, Virginia, and was not expected back in Washington this week. If Snow decided to hold a press conference to discuss the report's findings, as he did in May when the last one was issued, that would make next Monday or Tuesday the most likely time to issue the currency report.

Snow is scheduled to travel to London in the middle of next week for a Dec. 2-3 meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers and Nov. 30 falls on a Wednesday.

Much of the interest in currency markets has centered on the language Treasury will use to describe China's relatively slow progress toward adopting a more freely floating currency whose value is determined by market forces.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. GM to detail 4 U.S. plant closures this week-paper

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T084517Z_01_L21719672_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-PLANTS.XML

FRANKFURT, Nov 21 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Rick Wagoner will announce plans this week to close four U.S. assembly plants, the Automotive News industry paper reported on Monday, citing a "company insider".

It said the move was part of an effort by the world's biggest carmaker to quiet Wall Street speculation about a possible bankruptcy.

It quoted its source as saying the planned cutbacks would come in a "bold announcement" that should "cause a lot of people to shut up".

GM was not immediately available for comment. It has lost nearly $4 billion this year and has said it will give details by the end of 2005 of its plan to cut at least 25,000 manufacturing jobs as part of a broader restructuring plan.

<snip>

The paper said it was not clear how many jobs will be eliminated or which plants would close. The shutdowns will not affect GM's future product plans, it added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. GM to hold press conference on NAmer ops at 8.30 am ET

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38677.3384837963-851562483&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. (GM) said it will address its employees and the media about "significant" actions planned for its GM North America operations at 8.30 a.m. Eastern Time. The company is planning to cut carmaking capacity and could close three or more North American assembly and support plants, the Wall Street Journal online reported earlier. GM shares were last trading up 2.3% at $24.60 in premarket trade on Instinet.

[UpInArms]

11. GM to close 9 assembly, 3 service and parts plants (30,000 jobs)

8:45am 11/21/05 GM PLAN CUTS RETIREE HEALTH LIABILITIES BY 25% OR $15B

8:44am 11/21/05 GM ACTIVE HOURLY EMPLOYEES TO CONTRIBUTE TO HEALTH CARE

8:44am 11/21/05 GM, UAW AGREE ON HEALTH-CARE COST CUTS

8:40am 11/21/05 GM TO SHUT 3RD SHIFT AT OSHAWA NO. 1 ONTARIO PLANT IN H2 '06

8:40am 11/21/05 GM TO SHUT 3RD SHIFT AT MORAINE, OHIO, IN 2006

8:38am 11/21/05 GM TO SHUT SPRING HILL, TENN., LINE 1 AT END 2006

8:39am 11/21/05 GM TO SHUT DORAVILLE, GA., PLANT IN 2008

8:37am 11/21/05 GM CONTINUES PLAN TO CUT MATERIAL COSTS BY $1B

8:38am 11/21/05 GM TO CLOSE OKLAHOMA CITY PLANT IN EARLY 2006

8:38am 11/21/05 GM TO SHUT LANSING, MICH., CRAFT CENTER MID-2006

8:36am 11/21/05 GM ESTIMATES `SIGNIFICANT' RESTRUCTURING CHARGE FOR REVAMP

8:35am 11/21/05 GM TO MAKE MUCH OF JOB CUTS THROUGH ATTRITION, EARLY RETIRES

8:33am 11/21/05 GM TO CUT 30,000 MANUFACTURING POSTS BY END 2008

8:31am 11/21/05 GM TO CLOSE 9 ASSEMBLY, 3 SERVICE AND PARTS PLANTS

(edited to add details of plant closings)

[54anickel]

54. At the risk of repeating myself...

THIRTY FREAKIN' THOUSAND JOBS!!!

By the end of '08, yet plant closings taking place in '06? Through attrition and early retires?

Looks like a lot of people will need to relocate if they are going to continue working for them. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

56. UAW labor union says GM's 30,000 job cuts 'unfair'

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T165416Z_01_WEN4853_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-UAW-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The United Auto Workers said on Monday that General Motors Corp.'s (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) decision to cut 30,000 jobs and close or curtail operations in at least 12 plants was "extremely disappointing, unfair and unfortunate."

"Today's action ... is devastating to many thousands of workers, their families and their communities. While GM's continuing decline in market share is not the fault of workers or our communities, it is these groups that will suffer because of the actions announced today," UAW President Ron Gettelfinger and Vice President Richard Shoemaker, who directs the UAW's General Motors department, said in a release.

...more...

[54anickel]

63. Freakin' amazing. How a company can be so piss-poorly managed

for so damned long that it has to go to such lengths to possibly avoid bankruptcy is just unconscionable.

Such irresponsibility on the part of both management and shareholders. So long as their pockets were being lined nothing mattered no one looked to what was really going on. I know so folks that worked for GM that would voice their concerns to management constantly, but no one would listen.

Corporations have changed so much over the years. No longer is management a mix that includes people who know the product and have worked their way up, it's all run by MBAs and bean counters who have absolutely no knowledge of the product. They just move from company to company, peppering their resume with making things look good on paper then moving on to the next highest bidder.

So sad. :-(

[barb162]

73. You're right. I bet the average worker saw it coming for years

and was totally helpless to affect their situation, the outcome. The morons at the top have their golden parachutes

[barb162]

72. You have my attention too. I have been screaming

about this job cut stuff for years. High paying USA jobs shipped to Asia and elsewhere, American workers unemployed.... It's a travesty. Where will they relocate? Where is there high-paid work in this country anymore without getting more degrees which may not help you anyway (software engineers, etc). Both parties allow the corporations to run amok in the name of capitalism. It simply isn't working anymore. And by the time these job cuts at GM alone occur, it'll probably effect the local economies with another 10,000 jobs

[UpInArms]

57. FACTBOX - GM plant closures, curtailments

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-11-21T165121Z_01_N21282480_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-FACTBOX.XML

excerpt:

Here are details from a General Motors statement regarding which plants will be affected:

* Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, will cease production in early 2006.

* Lansing, Michigan, Craft Center will cease production in mid-2006.

* Spring Hill, Tennessee, Plant/Line No. 1, will cease production at the end of 2006.

* Doraville, Georgia, will cease production at the end of its current products' lifecycle in 2008.

* The third shift will be removed at Oshawa Car Plant No. 1, in Ontario, Canada, in the second half of 2006. Subsequently, Oshawa Car Plant No. 2 will cease production after the current product runs out in 2008.

* The third shift will be removed at Moraine, Ohio, during 2006, with timing to be based on market demand.

* The Lansing, Michigan, Metal Center will cease production in 2006.

* The Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Metal Center will cease production in 2007.

* The Parts Distribution Center in Portland, Oregon, will cease operations in 2006.

* The Parts Distribution Center in St. Louis, Missouri. will cease warehousing activities and will be converted to a collision center facility in 2006.

* The Parts Processing Center in Ypsilanti, Michigan, will cease operations in 2007.

* One additional Parts Processing Center, to be announced at a later date, will also cease operations in 2007.

* The competitiveness of all unitizing (packaging) operations at the Pontiac, Drayton Plains, and Ypsilanti Processing Centers in Michigan, as well as portions of the unitizing operations at the Flint, Michigan, Processing Center will be evaluated in accordance with the provisions of the GM-United Auto Workers national agreement.

* St. Catharines, Ontario, Street West powertrain components facility in Ontario, Canada, will cease production in 2008.

* The Flint, Michigan, North 3800 engine facility ("Factory 36") will cease production in 2008.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

83. US auto job cuts may beat 2001 record - Challenger (89,016 thru Oct)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T201447Z_01_N21545534_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-AUTOS-CHALLENGER.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Job cuts in the U.S. auto industry may exceed the record set in 2001 as General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) announce more layoffs, a report said on Monday.

GM said on Monday it will cut 30,000 jobs. With those job cuts, combined with Ford's announcement on Friday to cut 4,000 jobs, the auto industry is on track to meet, or possibly surpass, the 2001 record of 133,686 job cuts in one year, said Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., an employment consulting firm.

"In June, GM said it would cut 25,000 jobs between now and 2008," said James Pedderson, a spokesman for the firm. "Now that they are giving more details, the number increased to 30,000."

Challenger will count 5,000 of the announced 30,000 GM layoffs for November. The other 25,000 were previously added to the June report.

The auto industry, which includes car manufacturers, suppliers, and auto dealers, announced 89,016 job cuts through October 2005. These cuts are 123 percent more than the 39,921 announced through October 2004, the report said.

...more...

[54anickel]

85. UGH!!! But remember, it may look and feel like another recession,

but it won't be a recession. :eyes:

[ozymandius]

12. I drive past the Doraville plant every morning.

It looks as if some cuts have already happened. There are many less cars in the employee parking lots and several smoke stacks look cold.

[54anickel]

21. What the heck is that quote about?

a "bold announcement" that should "cause a lot of people to shut up".

And I see all this unemployment has given their stocks a boost. So sad, this sounds like permanent closings this time around too, doesn't it?

I haven't been by the Janesville plant this year. Last year the lots were pretty empty but that was during the temporary lay-off.

Delphi in Oak Creek, now possibly GM in Janesville...both employ a lot of folks in my area of WI. :-(

[UpInArms]

23. it reminded me of something Jeffrey Skilling said:

"You must cut jobs ruthlessly by 50 percent or 60 percent. Depopulate. Get rid of people. They gum up the works."

http://www.salon.com/news/col/huff/2002/01/23/bush_enron/

[AnneD]

65. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Doesn't sound like the makings of a cheerful holiday season. I count my blessings that I am in the position I am today. School doesn't pay much but I have a defined benefit retirement backed by conservative state pension and the state of Texas. Hubby and I have figured it up and we will be doing well in retirement and he may even get to retire early to devote time to his music.I love my job so I can see working it for a while.

I have nothing but empathy for those caught up in the mismanagement of one of the biggest industries. I don't recall Henry Ford considering his workers gumming up the works. I seem to remember him giving great wages and cutting the work week in an effort to sell more cars. Minimum wage employees don't buy much other than the necessities. Corporate America doesn't want a middle class, they want a master/slave relationship.

I may not be able to post after today (for a few days) so Happy Thanksgiving, remember to be generous and count your blessings....
Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

70. Hi AnneD...

Yes, it's a very sad day for those workers and for all of the US. Wasn't the old saying as GM goes so goes the US - or something like that?

You have a great Thanksgiving too. :hi:

It will be difficult to give thanks for our many blessings without thinking of all those who have been much less fortunate this year.

[AnneD]

75. I have made it a point this year to give extra..

whereas last year I would give $5 and some canned goods to the Thanksgiving fund, this year I funded an entire family. We have alot of Katrina people having a hard time plus our immigrant population.

I'm not tooting my horn, but I am paying my bill and paying down debt so I can squeeze out a little extra to help someone else. I just want to get a good used treadmill for Christmas, and hubby will get some clothes, that's all we want. We have everything we need.

I find more joy making sure a kid has food and a new toy. The only people that make out in the way Christmas is marketed today is corperations and credit card companies. Jesus and what he stood for is not even an afterthought. I am not going to be corporate America's dancing monkey anymore.

Well, got to run. Have fun at the slots....

[UpInArms]

24. GM's incompetent CEO defiantly clings to his salary and perks

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T141657Z_01_N21261626_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-OUTLOOK-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - General Motors Co. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Rick Wagoner said on Monday his company is on "very sound financial footing," but declined to comment on whether the automaker will return to profitability next year.

Wagoner said talk of a possible GM bankruptcy was "frustrating."

"If you look at our liquidity structure, we're on very sound financial footing," Wagoner said at a news conference after announcing the company's turnaround plan.

Wagoner also said he was "not prepared to make a statement today regarding the profit outlook" for 2006, and said he has not given thought to leaving his job.

...more...

[54anickel]

43. US corporate excess under fire as unions go on the attack

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051120/ts_alt_afp/useconomyunions_051120095243;_ylt=AqVFGDopP.ODY9IZn2QBl_SmOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US unions, weakened by public apathy and internal splits, are fighting back with an online database that accuses corporate supremos of lining their own pockets while grinding down their employees.

Business leaders are deeply unhappy at the online initiative of the AFL-CIO workers' federation, accusing union bosses of taking a cheap shot when complex issues are at stake.

But the AFL-CIO affiliate behind the site, Working America, says there is nothing cheap about the pay packages on offer to the favoured few while millions of blue-collar Americans fret about losing their jobs and benefits.

"The public should be able to question the outrageous pay of CEOs at a time when jobs are being outsourced every day and their health and safety is endangered every day," Working America deputy director Robert Fox told AFP.

The site at www.workingamerica.org has information on more than 60,000 US companies, detailing their violations of health and safety legislation, their outsourcing of jobs overseas and the pay deals for chief executives.

more...

[UpInArms]

45. Waggoner's Pay Package - almost $5 MILLION

Corporate Parent: 	GENERAL MOTORS CORPORATION	
Industry: 	Manufacturing	
Exchange: 	NYS	
Stock Symbol: 	GM	
Salary of CEO: 	$4,817,020

http://www.workingamerica.org/jobtracker/index.cfm?zipCode=&companyName=General+Motors&industry=&appState=companyDetails&stateSelect=&sortToggle=ASC&vioCode=0000&companyid=1965452&oshCat=0

[donkeyotay]

67. Outsource CEOs. You could get a good CEO in India for a fraction

of the price. Did I say good? I meant better. Outsource the whole falafel. How come corporate America thinks it's good for workers to "compete" but not CEOs?

Does it make sense to reduce worker's pay just to give it to top management? Isn't this just more Robinhood in reverse?

[UpInArms]

69. Robinhood-in-reverse could and does apply

to life in the US in all ways.

Someday, hopefully before it is too late, the citizens of this country will truly understand what honor,dignity and morality is.

As they stand aside and allow the young, aged and poor to suffer whilst they applaud their stock market returns, I hope that the fleas of one thousand camels infest their armpits.

[hatrack]

25. Yeah, I think a lot of people shut up when the announcement came

They're in Oklahama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Tennessee and Ontario and you could hear a pin drop in those plants, those workers are so extraordinarily shut up.

[UpInArms]

26. here's an expanded list of those that "shut up"

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T142619Z_01_N21253556_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-UPDATE-4.XML

excerpt:

The plants affected include those in Doraville, Georgia; an Oklahoma City plant that makes mid-size SUVs; plants in Ontario, Canada, Pittsburgh and Portland, Oregon; and its Lansing, Michigan Craft Center which makes a pickup truck.

<snip>

The new closings are in addition to the three assembly plants that GM has already closed or stopped production at this year: a car plant in Lansing, Michigan; an SUV plant in Linden, New Jersey; and a van plant in Baltimore.

...more...

[54anickel]

38. THIRTY FREAKIN' THOUSAND JOBS!!!!

Doesn't say when or how? Sheesh, those poor people - not exactly "Happy Holidays" material.

Wonder what the grand total is when added to the previous closings?

[UpInArms]

62. S&P may still cut GM's ratings after capacity cuts

I guess that "shut-up" thing did not work :eyes:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T173624Z_01_WNA4239_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GENERALMOTORS-SANDP-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's said on Monday it may still lower its ratings on General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and its finance subsidiary following GM's announcement that it will cut its capacity and headcount in North America.

"The reductions will be substantial," S&P said in a release. GM remains on review for downgrade due to concerns about the automaker's product mix, the sales and pricing outlook for its products, the adequacy of its strategy to lower its costs and the potential consequences of a strike at its key part supplier Delphi Corp., the ratings agency said.

S&P rates GM's long term debt "BB-minus," three levels below investment grade, and General Motors Acceptance Corp. "BB," two levels below investment grade.

[54anickel]

47. Bond market puts heat on GMAC sale

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c0dc03ca-59e6-11da-b023-0000779e2340.html

Bond markets are showing signs of impatience with Rick Wagoner, the chief executive of General Motors.


The market welcomed his announcement last month that the company would sell a controlling stake in General Motors Acceptance Corporation, its profitable finance arm. GMAC’s bonds shot up to levels that implied it might get its investment grade credit rating back.

But in recent days, after trading almost independently of GM’s credit for a time, GMAC’s bonds have tracked lower. The cost of credit default swaps, a form of insurance against default, have tracked higher – in parallel with GM’s – before sharing in a modest recovery at the end of last week.

“Every day you don’t hear something, the markets get more and more itchy,” said David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights. “A lot of market observers, especially rating agencies, have been giving GM . . . a lot of leash to try to concoct a deal to separate GMAC and ResCap from the woes of GM.”

The annual cost of five-year credit default swaps for GMAC exceeded 5 percentage points in early October, meaning it would have cost more than $500,000 a year to protect against default on $10m of the finance unit’s debt. That fell almost as low as $200,000 a year in the days after GM said it would sell a stake in GMAC, the lowest level since January. But it has since climbed again, more than doubling to $412,000 on Friday, according to data from Markit. GMAC continues to be seen as a better credit than GM itself.

more...

[54anickel]

48. Toyota is on track to top GM sales (Shouldn't be too tough!)

'06 goal would push it to world No. 1

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051121/BUSINESS01/511210405/1014/BUSINESS

Toyota Motor Corp. is expected to release 2006 sales targets next month that, if realized, would push it past General Motors Corp. as the world's largest automaker, according to a report in Saturday's Wall Street Journal.

The Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, said Toyota's plan could set a production goal in 2006 of 9.2 million automobiles, 11% more than it expects to make in its current fiscal year.

GM made 8.99 million cars and trucks in 2004 and has projected it will build 9.1 million this year. The company hasn't made projections for 2006. GM has been the world's No. 1 automaker for more than 70 years.

Toyota officials have publicly said they're concerned about U.S. backlash from dethroning GM. Industry experts also worry about quality problems if the company expands too quickly.

snip>

We're working very hard on our plans for our future, and if we do that well, it takes care of itself," GM spokesman Tom Kowaleski said Sunday. :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

5. Gas falling more than a penny a day

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/21/markets/gas_lundberg/?cnn=yes

NEW YORK (CNN) - Prices at the pump fell more than 18 cents over the past two weeks, continuing a 10-week downward slide, according to a survey published Sunday.

The Lundberg Survey of gasoline stations nationwide found the average price of a gallon of self-serve regular was $2.24 on Nov. 18, down from $2.43 on Nov. 4.

That's down 77 cents from an all-time high on Sept. 9, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

According to AAA's "Daily Fuel Gauge Report," a nationwide average price for regular unleaded fell to $2.21 a gallon Monday. The price is down 28 percent from the record high of $3.057 reached on Labor Day.

Diesel also fell to $2.678 and is down 56 cents during the last month.

<snip>

The price is still 28 cents higher than it was one year ago.

...more...

[54anickel]

22. Penny a point, ain't no one keepin' score...n/t

[UpInArms]

6. Outlook sours for real estate

Many indicators point to a major slowdown in home prices.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/14/real_estate/buying_selling/prices_going_south/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Did homeowners who sold in September get out just in time?

The latest report on third-quarter home prices, released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors, showed continued strength. But increasingly there are signs that prices have plateaued.

Of 147 markets tracked, 69 had gains from a year ago of more than 10 percent -- only six metro areas experienced declines.

But from the second quarter to the third quarter, the national median home price rose to $215,900, up just 3.8 percent. That contrasts with a 10.4 percent jump in the prior quarter.

And more and more leading indicators are pointing to a slowdown.

...more...

[54anickel]

39. No, no no, CNBC says it just a bit of froth off of the top

Top end of housing market losing some froth

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10097638/

There are increasing signs that some of the helium has started to seep from the real estate balloon -- and maybe most notably at the high end of the price scale.

Take a drive around the prime neighborhoods in your area -- where the $1 million-dollar-plus homes are -- and you'll see something you haven't in quite some time: lots of "for sale" signs. And the bigger and more beautifully coifed the lawn, the longer those signs are staying planted in it.

That's the anecdotal evidence. The hard evidence is this: even real estate agents -- the most positive people this side of the Osmond family -- are starting to concede that the top of the market has lost some froth.

“We've got a lot more supply coming on,” says David Michonski, CEO of Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy, a high-end brokerage in Greenwich, Conn. “Existing inventory is staying on the market longer. We've got fewer buyers, fewer bidding wars, and we've got a lot of new construction coming on line."

snip to the buy now and save crap-o-la> :eyes:

“Tactically, remember that the next 3 to 4 months are traditionally the slowest 3 to 4 months in the market and that spells opportunity for buyers,” says Michonski. You should get in now, if you're a buyer, because come March you'll have more competition as the spring market begins."

more...

[wordpix]

74. my toney CT county has dozens of houses available and no one biting

at these high prices, anyway. Friend said that when she bought into my town in late '90's hers was only house available below $300,000---now there are LOTS of houses up for sale. Still, former $300,000 house now gets $500,000 or at least, did in summer.

[UpInArms]

7. Conrad Black defiant, pugilistic as charges loomed

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-11-19T211157Z_01_MOL947447_RTRUKOC_0_US-MEDIA-BLACK.xml

TORONTO (Reuters) - Two days before U.S. prosecutors charged him with crimes that could, if proven, send him to prison for 40 years, Conrad Black was enjoying the high life and settling an old score.

Tuxedo-clad, with wife Barbara Amiel by his side, he attended the 100th anniversary party of Canadian newsmagazine Maclean's, socializing with celebrities and Toronto's political, media and financial elite.

According to the National Post newspaper, he also used the occasion to have Peter C. Newman served with a C$2.1 million lawsuit, accusing the former Maclean's editor of defaming him in a recent book.

<snip>

Even before Thursday's fraud charges, Black's legal and financial woes were mounting.

Hollinger International Inc. (HLR.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the newspaper publisher he once controlled, last year sued him for $542 million and U.S. regulators filed a lawsuit alleging he "cheated and defrauded" shareholders.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Going After the Lawyers in Refco's Stunning Fall

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/matthewgoldstein/10253733.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Refco's (RFXCQ:OTC - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) collapse is casting an unflattering light on the role of another group of high-priced lawyers.

Mayer Brown Rowe & Maw, the big Chicago-based law firm, is drawing scrutiny from securities regulators trying to sort out the players in the brokerage's stunning fall from grace. Investigators are looking into the role Mayer Brown played in drafting the loan documents that allegedly enabled former Refco CEO Phillip Bennett to carry out a scheme to hide hundreds of millions of dollars in old customer trading losses for years.

In the wake of the scandal, Mayer Brown has hired John Villa, a former federal prosecutor who specializes in getting law firms out of legal jams, to represent it. The firm also has retained separate white-collar defense attorneys to represent two of its lawyers, one of whom, Joseph Collins, has been the commodity broker's principle outside attorney for nearly two decades.

It's too soon to say just how much culpability, if any, Mayer Brown has in the alleged fraud that federal prosecutors say was orchestrated by Bennett with the help of "others known and unknown."

But since the Enron debacle, there's been a concerted effort by the Securities and Exchange Commission, federal prosecutors and shareholder attorneys to hold law firms that sign off on dubious financial transactions to a tougher standard.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Dec Gold @ $489.50 oz

8:32am 11/21/05 DEC GOLD UP $3.40 AT $489.50 AN OUNCE

[54anickel]

19. Gold hits new 18-year peak, eyes $500 (Someone better slap that

sucker back down) :evilgrin:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH89100_2005-11-21_10-24-55_SP317919

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Gold took aim for $500 an ounce as reports of healthy demand spurred fund buying, while firm prices in other currencies pointed to more gains, traders said on Monday.

snip>

Gold has seen a renewed surge in investor interest over the past two weeks, after selling early in the month dried up around $455 an ounce. Prices have since risen by some 7.5 percent and are up 12 percent since the end of 2004.

snip>

An expected rise in demand for jewellery and investment in the run-up to Christmas could push up gold to $500 by year-end, a level last seen in 1987.

"We have been holding in the face of euro falls last week and with euro-gold now well above 400, that should continue to be supportive for the dollar price," one trader said.

Gold was riding on its own fundamentals and ignoring recent gains in the dollar against other currencies, although a slightly stronger euro on Monday was seen as helpful.

more...

[UpInArms]

55. Gold extends rally; copper dips

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={A68C93AF-879D-4480-B618-5E8F9E9B49A9}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures set a fresh 18-year high in early trade Monday, extending recent gains on continued strong physical demand, central bank buying and inflation concern.

Gold for December delivery was last trading up $2.60 at $488.80 an ounce, having earlier touched a high of $490.50 an ounce, its highest level since December 1987.

Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, said that while the recent rise in gold prices has been driven by factors including increased investment demand, geopolitical uncertainty and the search for an alternative to paper currencies, "another factor has been in a stealth mode but never-the-less critical to the rise - major players caught short.

"I believe groups who have tried to artificially depress gold prices are in serious trouble and can cause a far greater rise than most assume today," said Grandich.

Gold futures added almost $17 an ounce last week with many analysts expecting the metal to surpass the $500 an ounce level before the end of the year and trade above that heading into 2006.

...more...

[UpInArms]

78. Gold sets fresh 18-year high on physical demand, inflation - $489.50 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38677.590997581-851588524&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures set a fresh 18-year record at $490.50 an ounce Monday, before easing back slightly to close up $3.30 at $489.50, buoyed by continued strong physical demand, central bank buying and inflation concern. Silver futures closed up 6.60 cents at $8.133 an ounce. Platinum futures ended down $4.50 at $981.60, while its sister metal palladium was up $1.75 at $268.75 an ounce. Copper futures struck a new record at $1.979 a pound, before settling at $1.9735, down 45 cents on the day.

[sinjamin]

79. Gold Lease Rates converging

http://www.kitco.com/

Any opinions on the implications of the gold lease rates converging?

[UpInArms]

10. Jan Crude @ $57.70 bbl - Dec NatGas @ $11.23 mln btus

8:30am 11/21/05 DEC NATGAS DOWN 18.40C AT $11.23 PER MILLION BTUS

8:29am 11/21/05 JAN CRUDE UP 44C AT $57.70 A BARREL

8:30am 11/21/05 DEC UNLEADED GASOLINE UP 1.70C AT $1.479 A GALLON

8:30am 11/21/05 DEC HEATING OIL UP 2.84C AT $1.7246 A GALLON

[ozymandius]

14. Crude Oil Rises Amid Snowstorm Warnings

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices rose Monday, lifted by forecasts of a winter storm approaching the northeastern U.S. that is likely to boost demand for heating fuels in that key market.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said a "roadmap" to match consumption and supply needs was needed to avoid either gluts or shortfalls. The world's top producer of crude said a lack of information, not supply, was one of the root causes for roller-coaster oil prices.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 66 cents to $57.87 a barrel in electronic trading by morning in Europe. The front-month contract price is 20 percent higher than a year ago, but has dropped about 19 percent since hitting an all-time high of $70.85 when Hurricane Katrina made landfall Aug. 30.

more

[ozymandius]

15. Global oil producers discuss supply

RIYADH (Reuters) - Global oil consumers and producers discussed on Saturday calls for greater transparency in oil markets and investment in production capacity to curb prices which hit record levels this year.

Ministers and officials from the energy-hungry United States, China, India and the European Union held talks behind closed doors with oil giant Saudi Arabia and other major OPEC exporters in the Saudi capital.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said his country, which is under pressure from consumer nations to raise output capacity to cool oil prices, is committed to meeting customers' needs.

-cut-

He said consumer nations must also play their part by lowering taxes on refined petroleum products and taking a stand against oil market speculation, which Saudi officials often blame for volatile prices.

more

[UpInArms]

35. Crude @ $57.65 bbl - NatGas at $11.28 mln btus

10:01am 11/21/05 NATURAL GAS OPENS UP 13.4 CENTS AT $11.28

10:01am 11/21/05 CRUDE OPENS UP 44 CENTS AT $57.65 A BARREL

[ozymandius]

13. early morning blah blah

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. The cash market continues to head towards a flattish open. Today's earnings calendar is a light one, and the economic front features just one piece of data. At 10:00 ET, October leading indicators, for which economists expect a 0.8% read, will be released. Separately, the Treasury market has found a light bid heading into the open, sending the 10-year up five ticks and down to a 4.47% yield.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Versus fair value, futures trade suggests a lackluster start for stocks today. Reports that General Motors (GM) may announce plant and facility closures that will save the company about $2.5 billion a year have provided some upside to early sentiment, but a 1.3% rise in the price of crude, to $57.95 per barrel, helps keep early buying efforts in check.

[54anickel]

16. Content with the Status Quo: (Chopper Ben)

Last entry in the Credit Bubble Bulletin again. Lots of interesting stuff on the way down the page. This one caught my eye:

Inflationists Watch:

November 18 – Bloomberg (Scott Lanman): “Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, is among the candidates for two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the Financial Times reported. Ben Bernanke, the nominee to succeed Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and the current chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, recommended McCulley…”


Content with the Status Quo:

snip>

It is incredible – and history will surely not be kind - that Dr. Bernanke today disavows the precariousness of our Current Account, as well as the Fed’s predominant role in nurturing it. But then again, he is an ardent (wolf in sheep’s clothing) inflationist and Devout Anti-Bubble Popper. Dovishly, in regard to previous oil shocks, he stated that “the Fed responded somewhat in a panicked way by raising interest rates enormously, which then contributed to the deep recessions of 1975 and 1981-’82.” And while selling inflation targeting, he sheepishly assured our lawmakers that tough measures would not be brought to bear against outsized inflation gains: “I would certainly not try to return inflation to a target within a short period of time. I would simply try to assure the markets that over a long period of time that the Federal Reserve was committed to price stability…” He doesn’t come across as all too Volckerish.

Of course, Dr. Bernanke is an enthusiastic follower of chairman Greenspan’s “risk-management policy approach attempts to take into account the possible consequences of not only the most likely forecasted outcomes but also of a range of lower-probability outcomes. Implementing this approach requires sophisticated judgments about possible risks to the economy, as well as the flexibility to respond quickly to new information or unexpected developments.” Or, said another way, all measures must be employed to avoid the risky proposition of restraining destabilizing excess or piercing the ongoing Credit Bubble. Too risky…simply much too risky, and we’ll make sure to telegraph our every move as to not interfere with any risk-taking endeavors. This is all comforting music to Wall Street’s ears.

snip>

Dr. Bernanke informs us that he is basically ok with $800 billion Current Account Deficits, unprecedented derivative positions and myriad Bubbles as long as “core CPI” inflation is contained - over the long-term. He is Content with the Status Quo. He believes the world will always fancy our dollar-denominated financial claims, demonstrating yet again his total disregard for the harsh lessons of financial history. Surely he appreciates that the Bubble-induced explosion of suspect dollar financial claims – largely backed by exceedingly vulnerable real estate (Bubble) loans - guarantees future foreign creditor disappointment, disenchantment, liquidation and revulsion. He must, let’s hope, understand the paramount role today played by global “carry trades” and the “repo” market in both fostering demand for U.S. securities and fueling The Unwieldy Global Liquidity Glut.

snip>

Dr. Bernanke: “The Federal Reserve has important responsibilities for maintaining financial stability. That involves ensuring ex ante, that banks, for example, are managing their portfolios safely, that the clearing and settlement systems are well-designed and secure, that there are good arrangements in place for dealing with some kind of financial crisis, no matter what its source might be, and that, ex post, should there be a problem, that there be plenty of liquidity provided to the banking system and that the Fed would make sure that whatever problems arise be brought to some venue where they can be unwound and discussed and assistance be given.”

The Federal Reserve’s responsibility “for maintaining financial stability” must begin long before there is an $800 billion Current Account Deficit, $3.6 Trillion of “repos,” $270 Trillion of derivative contracts, a too powerful Mortgage Finance Bubble, all-encompassing leveraged speculation and a terribly distorted Bubble Economy. Financial stability is a daily and ongoing discipline – an uncompromising commitment to broad-based financial and economic soundness, stability and sustainability, not some theoretical post-Bubble “mop-up” strategy.

more...

[ozymandius]

17. Stock futures flat as GM eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures were little changed, pointing to a flat market opening on Monday, as investors anticipated an announcement from automaker General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) that could include U.S. factory closings.

-cut-

According to a report, the world's largest automaker will announce this week plans to close four U.S. assembly plants as part of cost-cutting measures, the Automotive News industry paper reported on Monday, citing a GM insider.

"GM seems to be taking the necessary measures to shore up its business, and that is certainly helping the company's stock," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. in Boston. "Gains in GM may help push the market up a bit today."

Stocks may also get a lift from a report on Monday expected to show a jump in U.S. leading economic indicators in October.

:eyes:

more

[ozymandius]

18. Giving Thanks for Even Minimal Returns

NEW YORK - Wall Street has much to be thankful for this week. Despite the looming threat of inflation and high energy prices that continue to threaten to limit consumer spending, the stock market seems to have embarked on its usual year-end rally.

:eyes: (Gotta get those year-end bonuses in the pockets of brokers, fund managers and CEOs!)

It remains to be seen, however, whether this rally will last until the new year.

The big concerns remain. The economy is slowing, and when winter heating bills show up in the mail, consumers will have even less to spend. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to stop raising interest rates in the face of inflation. So while higher rates will keep prices in check, those too will reduce the amount of money people and companies have to spend.

For now, however, that hasn't mattered.

more

[UpInArms]

20. Chinese trader reportedly in custody

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEF348A3B%2DD8C4%2D4178%2D95E6%2DF875753E9DC6%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Chinese State Reserve Bureau copper trader who built up large short positions on the London Metal Exchange and then disappeared is now in police custody, the Economic Observer said.

The newspaper, without citing sources, said that Liu Qibing is being held by police in Beijing.

The report said Liu has been in custody since last month on suspected "unauthorized trading".

The report gave no further details.

According to media reports, Liu took short positions equal to 100,000-200,000 tons of copper in July and August on the London Metal Exchange, and went missing in October.

The losses could amount to $100 million, according to some estimates. They have sparked speculation the SRB did not have sufficient reserves to meet deliveries due in December, pushing copper prices up even further.

...more...

[UpInArms]

53. Fiasco exposes Chinese stockpile

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/21/bloomberg/sxcopper.php#

BEIJING China is disclosing its holdings of copper for the first time, as the nation seeks to limit losses from a trader's wrong-way bet on a drop in prices.

The State Reserve Bureau, the country's metal stockpiling agency, said on its Web site on Nov. 9 that it would sell 20,000 tons of copper. A week later, it announced another sale of the same amount.

The statements, unprecedented for the bureau, have failed to damp speculation that China cannot meet its copper commitments, and prices climbed to records in London and New York last week. The reserve bureau may have to deliver as much as 200,000 metric tons of copper because of positions amassed by the trader, Liu Qibing, the state-run China Daily said Thursday. That is about 60,000 tons more than is publicly reported worldwide.

"They used to be low-key, and now they have suddenly become high-profile," Li Yusheng, head of the copper department at Beijing Antaike Information Development, a government research affiliate in Beijing, said in an interview on Thursday. "It has become a government issue."

By announcing sales, China may be seeking to ease investor concern about inventories and to drive down prices to limit losses from Liu's trades, analysts said. The reserve bureau has 1.3 million tons of stockpiled copper, Reuters cited an official from the agency as saying on Nov. 11, about one million tons more than most estimates.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Printing Press Report:Fed adds temporary reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T143525Z_01_N21268501_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Monday said that it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4.00 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

28. U.S. Treasuries rise in quiet holiday-week trade

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T144116Z_01_N21332780_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices ticked higher on Monday morning on a day featuring little data in a holiday-shortened week in which trading is traditionally light.

The market was quiet enough to still be getting traction from last Friday's cmments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggesting the euro zone central bank may raise rates for the first time in five years, analysts said.

U.S. Treasuries' outperformance was driven by the perception that interest rates in the United States might soon peak while in Europe, the tightening cycle is about to start.

"The first hike is expected on Dec. 1," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, adding that: "Several politicians have questioned the need for a rate hike at all, while other members of the policy committee have questioned the need for more than one hike."

...more...

[ret5hd]

30. would you point me to a site that explains what a 'repo' is?...and what

the implications of them are?

[54anickel]

33. Here's a couple of links

The official Fed explaination:
http://www.ny.frb.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed04.html

And another look at them from Financial Sense Online:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bolser/2003/0602.htm

[UpInArms]

34. Treasury "repo" - Repurchase Agreement - info

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repurchase_agreement

Repurchase agreements (RPs or Repos) are financial instruments used in the money markets. The more accurate and descriptive term is Sale and Repurchase Agreement, since what transpires is sale of securities now for cash by party A (the cash borrower) to party B (the cash lender), with the promise made by A to B of repurchasing those securities later (with A paying the requisite implicit interest to B at the time of repurchase - the implicit interest rate is known as the repo rate). From a financial theory perspective, there is nothing that prevents any security from being employed in a repo; so, Treasury or Government bills, corporate and Treasury / Government bonds, and stocks / shares, may all be used as securities involved in a repo.

A Reverse Repo is the repo as seen from the point of view of the cash lender, since the cash lender does not repurchase, but rather has securities repurchased from (i.e. the cash lender is the passive party in the act of securities repurchasing).

Normally, both parties view the transaction from the trader's perspective. A trader looking to borrow money is transacting a repo, while a trader looking to obtain securities is executing a reverse repo. When a customer provides money to a trader in return for securities, the transaction is often termed a repo by both parties.

A repo is similar to a secured loan, with the lender of money receiving securities as collateral to protect against default. The legal title to securities passes from the seller to the investor. The one providing the cash is referred to as an "investor"; the provider of the collateral is the "seller". Coupons that are paid out on the securities during the life of the loan are transferred to the original owner of the security, by means of altering the cash paid at the end of the agreement (with interest where appropriate).

It should be mentioned that there is a concomitant credit risk with engaging in a repo. Of course, a repo is essentially collateralized borrowing; however, it is theoretically (and practically!) possible that the borrower of cash may fail to repurchase the securities sold at the promised date of repurchase (for instance, the borrower of cash may have defaulted by the repurchase time). Naturally, the credit risk bore by a repo is directly associated with the maturity of the repo: the longer the maturity, the greater the credit risk coming with the repo.

Typically, repos are short-term, either overnight, or with a maturity of few days. However, repo agreements up to 3 months are not uncommon; these can be used to cover futures contracts, and are commonly called term repos.

<snip>

What is the size of the repo market?

The US Federal Reserve and the European Repo Council (a body of the International Securities Market Association) both try to estimate the size of their respective repo markets. At the end of 2004, the US repo market reached USD 5 trillion and the European one passed EUR 5 trillion in outstandings. Both are growing at two-digit pace.

The injection of "repos" into the monetary system generally equates to more dollars on the market (i.e. printing press)

[54anickel]

36. I was just looking at that and was gonna add it. That last snippet really

caught my eye.

The US Federal Reserve and the European Repo Council (a body of the International Securities Market Association) both try to estimate the size of their respective repo markets. At the end of 2004, the US repo market reached USD 5 trillion and the European one passed EUR 5 trillion in outstandings. Both are growing at two-digit pace.

Wonder what they're looking like for 2005?

[UpInArms]

50. on the "implications" side of that question -

here is a site that really keeps a stricter tally on what it actually does to the debt picture:

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

[UpInArms]

46. Printing Press Report: U.S. Treasury Dept to sell $24 bln bills on Tuesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T160148Z_01_WAT004419_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday said it will sell $24 billion of four-week bills on Tuesday, Nov. 22.

The four-week bills will be issued on Nov. 25.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund about $18 billion of publicly held bills maturing Nov. 25 and to raise new cash of about $6 billion.

The bills mature Dec. 22. Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $8.4 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. Printing Press Report: U.S. Treasury to sell $20 billion in 2-year notes

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T160833Z_01_WAT004418_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will sell $20 billion of 2-year notes on Wednesday, Nov. 23.

The notes will be issued on Nov. 30 and mature Nov. 30, 2007. Proceeds would refund $25.35 billion of publicly held notes maturing Nov. 30 and pay down about $5.35 billion in debt.

Treasury said the net long reporting threshold for the notes is $7 billion.

The CUSIP number for the notes will be 912828EP1.

Treasury said noncompetitive bids will be accepted in full up to $5 million at the highest yield accepted for the issue.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. 9:46 EST markets giving the bidness

Dow 10,772.17 +5.84 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,223.82 -3.25 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,248.17 +0.90 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.478 -0.24 (-0.53%)

NYSE Volume 149,569,000
Nasdaq Volume 145,962,000

[UpInArms]

31. Today's lone Report: Leading Economic Indicators

10:00am 11/21/05 U.S. SEPT. LEADING INDEX REVISED TO DOWN 0.8% VS FALL 0.7

10:00am 11/21/05 U.S. OCT. LEADING INDEX SHOWS ECONOMY GROWING MORE MODESTLY

10:00am 11/21/05 7 OUT OF 10 U.S. LEADING INDICATORS RISE IN OCT.

10:00am 11/21/05 U.S. OCT. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS UP 0.9%

U.S. Oct. leading economic indicators up 0.9%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38677.4170114352-851569308&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rebounded in October after a large drop in the previous month due to the hurricanes which hit the Gulf region. Leading indicators rose 0.9% in October, the Conference Board said Monday. The rise was larger than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had expected a 0.7% rise. Despite the increase, the index is consistent with an economy that "continues to expand more moderately in the near term," the Conference Board said. In September, the index was revised to a 0.8% drop, compared with the initial estimate of a 0.7% decline.

[54anickel]

37. HA! Growing more modestly. Gotta love the optimist club!

Here comes the expected year-end slowdown, to be followed by a slow Q1 that will look and feel like a recession (but won't be a real recession) that will be followed by solid sustainable growth, pie in the sky, extremely strong economy.

(Oh, did I forget to mention there's a mid-term election as well?)

[54anickel]

32. Asian Complacency (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051118-fri.html#anchor0

Back in Asia for the second time in a month, I have heard two recurring (and related) themes -- amazement at the ever-resilient American consumer and astonishment over the dollar’s strength. This fixation only reinforces my conviction that an externally focused Asian economy remains very much a levered play on US demand. Consequently, it would be a big deal out here in Asia should the terms of engagement with the United States change -- through either a shift in demand or a swing in relative prices (i.e., currencies). In my view, that’s precisely the risk that looms in 2006.

Currency fluctuations have long been one of Asia’s biggest wildcards. That is very much the case again in 2005 -- largely due to the surprising strength of the US dollar. After nearly three years of declines from early 2002 through late 2004, the greenback reversed course this year. Many of Asia’s dollar-pegged currencies have followed suit -- especially the Chinese renminbi (RMB) but also the currencies of Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and India. The Japanese yen has been a striking exception to this trend, having weakened by 14% against the US dollar since early 2005.

A continuation of this counter-trend rally by the dollar could pose a serious problem for Asia. Lacking in solid support from internal demand, Asia needs super-competitive currencies to keep its export machine running. To the extent the dollar’s surprising strength drags Asian currencies along for the ride, that could prove troubling for the region’s growth outlook

snip>

In the end, however, China’s export prowess is balanced on the head of a pin -- a pin made in America. Fully 35% of all Chinese exports go to the United States. Should US domestic demand falter -- hardly idle conjecture for an over-extended American consumer that looks exceedingly vulnerable to the twin pressures of an energy shock and a possible bursting of the housing bubble -- China would quickly be in trouble.

Everywhere I go in Asia, I hear the tale of the tough American consumer who has once again triumphed over adversity -- this time, making it through the energy shock of 2005 without even flinching. The latest estimates of 4Q05 real consumption growth by our US team -- an anemic 1.5% increase versus a 10-year trend of closer to 3.75% -- certainly draw that perception into question. In addition, mounting US-China trade frictions pose a different set of risks to the biggest piece of the Chinese export business. Whatever the reason -- a capitulation of the American consumer or Washington-led trade bashing -- there is good reason for concern on the Chinese export prognosis.

more...

[54anickel]

71. Hardly a Flat World (Roach again)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051121-mon.html#anchor0

snip>

I give Friedman a lot of credit for bringing globalization to the masses (see his The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century, Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2005). But to me, “flat” just doesn’t cut it in today’s world. Yes, IT-enabled connectivity has shrunk the world in many new and important respects. But the world is struggling mightily with what this connectivity has brought. China and India are reshaping the global economy as never before. The 40% of the world’s population that lives in these two countries is only just getting a taste of economic prosperity. Not surprisingly, these two behemoths have big appetites and are pushing ahead rapidly with very different development models. China has done it the manufacturing way catering to external demand, whereas in India it’s been more of a services and internal consumption story. The theory of globalization teaches us that this is a “win-win” development. As the Chinas and Indias enter the global economy, they provide cheap goods and now services for the rest of the world, while, at the same time, they create a new class of consumers that will buy things made in developed countries. Who could ask for more?

My travels tell me that the theory isn’t working as advertised. Globalization may well be win-win in the long run, but in the here and now it is profoundly asymmetrical. It has given rise to a multitude of new entrants on the supply side of the global equation but very few new consumers on the demand side. With the important exception of India, Asia remains very much an external demand story -- aiming its rapidly growing production platform at providing stuff for the overly-indulgent American consumer. Two numbers say it all: In 2004, Chinese consumption fell to a record low of 42% of its GDP, whereas America’s consumption share held near a record 71%. With 35-40% of Chinese exports going directly to the US, there can be no mistaking the dichotomy of the roles played by the rich and the wannabes. With the rest of Asia now increasingly integrated into a China-centric supply chain, the region remains far more skewed toward US-centric external demand than internal consumption. India’s consumption-led growth dynamic is encouraging, but with per capita spending of only about US$400 per year, the global impact remains trivial at this point in time.

But the asymmetries of globalization have an equally profound effect on the other side of the ledger -- on workers in the rich, developed world. Over the past five years, industrial world labor markets have suffered from both jobless and now wageless recoveries. The US, with the world’s most flexible labor market, has been on the leading edge of these trends. While hiring has picked up over the past 24 months, the private sector job count remains more than 10.5 million workers below the profile that would have been generated by a more typical hiring cycle. Moreover, the inflation-adjusted hourly pay rate is virtually unchanged over the 46 months of this recovery -- underscoring the rare confluence of surging productivity growth and stagnant real wages. At the same time, structural unemployment remains a serious problem elsewhere in the developed world -- especially in both Europe and Japan. And make no mistake -- workers in the developed world are far from pleased over this outcome and the global context in which it has arisen.

The global labor arbitrage, as I have dubbed it, adds a critical new and surprising wrinkle to globalization. The time-honored Ricardian models of comparative advantage have always broken down economies into two broad sectors -- tradables (i.e., manufacturing), and nontradables (i.e., services). The theory was that rich high-wage economies would gladly give up market share in manufacturing to low-wage workers in poorer economies in exchange for lower-cost goods. This exchange would then prompt a migration of vulnerable workers in the rich countries from openly-tradable manufacturing to sheltered, non-tradable services industries. Economies in the developed world would then thrive as increasingly knowledge-based systems, and the developing world would flourish as a manufacturing center. Courtesy of the Internet, this model has now broken down. IT-enabled breakthroughs have not only revolutionized the logistics of supply-chain management in manufacturing but they also have transformed once non-tradable, information-based activities such as software programming, engineering, design, accounting, lawyers, medical, and financial analysis into tradables. In an era increasingly dominated by the ultimate disruptive technology, the distinction between tradables and nontradables has become blurred. Employment and real wage compression in the developed world is a direct outgrowth of this blurring -- and so is the politics of the labor backlash it has spawned. The hyper-speed of an increasingly asymmetrical globalization is hardly the stuff of a flat world.

I haven’t come to this critique of globalization casually. It fits all too well with the intelligence gathering that occurs on these global jaunts. As I speak with businesspeople, government officials, investors, and political leaders around the world, I am struck by one thing these seemingly diverse groups all seem to have in common -- they recognize the unexpected pitfalls of globalization but they have no plan as to how to repair the damage. The other day in Beijing, a senior Chinese government official threw up his hands in exasperation, when he nearly pleaded with me, asking, “What can China do to reduce the bilateral trade tensions with the US?” He then went on to answer his own rhetorical question by expressing frustration over US restrictions against Chinese purchases of high-tech products. “I guess that means we’ll have to buy some more Boeing aircraft,” he said literally a couple of days before the news broke of a large order of Chinese jet purchases.

more...

[UpInArms]

40. 10:40 EST Markets decide that people just gum up the works

Dow 10,786.10 +19.77 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,229.77 +2.70 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,250.27 +3.00 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.469 -0.33 (-0.73%)

NYSE Volume 479,462,000
Nasdaq Volume 438,680,000

10:30AM: Flat line vacillation persists, with the Dow clinging to a modest gain, the S&P sitting on the flat line, and the Nasdaq still stunted. Leadership has dwindled over the past half hour, with Energy's gain well pared alongside crude's (+$0.19 $57.40) approach of the unchanged mark. Consumer Staples has held higher (+0.2%), bolstered by relative strength in Wal-Mart (WMT) shares as well as a substantial jump in Campbell Soup's (CPB) stock. With respect to the former, the world's largest retailer reaffirmed its November same store sales guidance of +3-5%. The latter issue, meanwhile, is on the rise after checking in $0.02 ahead of analysts' Q3 EPS estimates and announcing a $600 million share buyback plan this morning. NYSE Adv/Dec 1324/1528, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1097/1558

10:00AM: Catalyzed by the 1% uptick in the price of crude, to $57.76 per barrel, the Energy sector (+0.7%) has assumed early leadership. Other than its gain, though, upside is limited. Utilities have risen 0.3% and Consumer Staples are up 0.1%, leaving Materials at the flat line and the five other sectors below it. Of the decliners, Telecom (-0.6%) has started the day lowest, and is followed by a 0.4% slide in Technology. The Dow vacillates around the unchanged mark, still supported by General Motors (GM 24.26 +0.21) and Boeing (BA 68.24 +1.29) but challenged by the losses extended by a majority of its components; the S&P and Nasdaq, meanwhile, remain submerged. NYSE Adv/Dec 1376/1093, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1160/1230

[UpInArms]

44. 11:02 EST U.S. stocks gain after GM unveils restructuring

Dow 10,796.42 +30.09 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,232.35 +5.28 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,251.75 +4.48 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.465 -0.37 (-0.82%)

NYSE Volume 597,852,000
Nasdaq Volume 532,990,00

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T155413Z_01_N21272051_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-5.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were higher Monday after news of General Motors Corp.'s (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) plan to cut jobs and close factories lifted investors' optimism about the future of the world's largest automaker.

Also helping the Dow average, shares of Boeing (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 1.7 percent to $68.08 on the New York Stock Exchange after the plane maker announced $4.6 billion worth of sales of midsized aircraft.

GM shares rose 0.9 percent to $24.47 on the NYSE after it said it will cut about 30,000 manufacturing jobs, close or reduce operations at 12 plants in North America and slash the number of vehicles it produces as the automaker struggles for survival.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 20.17 points, or 0.19 percent, at 10,786.50. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 2.08 points, or 0.17 percent, at 1,250.35. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index was up 2.52 points, or 0.11 percent, at 2,229.59.

"GM is up today. You've taken a whole lot of uncertainty out of that stock, so that's what got the Dow up at the moment," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management.

...more...

[54anickel]

42. US pension accounting shift ‘would hit equities’

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/37423e5a-5a08-11da-b023-0000779e2340.html

Proposed changes to pension fund accounting in the US are likely to prompt a shift of investment away from equities and into bonds while speeding the demise of defined-benefit plans, according to investment experts.

The accounting changes under consideration by the Financial Accounting Standards Board would require defined-benefit funds, which hold about $4,000bn (€3,399bn £2,336bn) in assets, to stop “smoothing” their returns and instead report actual returns each year.

Fund managers argue that the changes will create volatility in corporate earnings because companies would be required to include their pension returns in their quarterly earnings statements.

“Company earnings would at the mercy of what the pension fund can earn in the stock and bond markets,” said Alistair Lowe, director of global asset allocation at State Street.

The changes face “vigorous opposition” from the private sector, according to Michael Moran, vice-president of portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs.“For companies that still maintain large pension plans, these changes could be enormous,” he said in a recent report.

Mr Moran said the changes would have an impact on capital markets, with investment flowing from equities to fixed income as pensions tried to limit risk by matching their investments to their long-term liabilities.

Uhhh, isn't that what they should have been doing all along?

more...

[54anickel]

51. Japan's Recovery Flashes a Warning to Bond Investors

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a70HjdFPc6Q0&refer=japan

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The prospect of a durable economic recovery in Japan has bond investors wondering if global yields are heading north.

The emergence of the world's second-largest economy from 14 years of stagnation has pushed up Japanese bond yields and share prices. Japan's investors, the biggest international holders of U.S. Treasuries, may bring more funds home unless yields outside the country also continue to rise, traders and investors say.

``If interest rates can rise in Japan, where they have been suppressed by global disinflation for more than a decade, they can rise anywhere,'' said Tony Crescenzi, head bond market strategist at New York brokerage Miller Tabak & Co.

:eyes: Duh, ya think? Did they really think they'd stay low forever when you've got printing presses working overtime worldwide?

Losses in Japanese bonds, and a resulting rise in global yields, would be felt beyond the fixed-income market. Mortgage rates worldwide would shoot up, possibly undermining home prices in countries such as the U.S. and U.K., where real estate prices have soared. Higher borrowing costs and a decline in property values would slow economies and crimp profit growth, weighing on stock markets.

more...

[54anickel]

52. Asian Debt Markets Are `Where the Action Is'

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aWKs526Fady8

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- ``This is where all the action is.'' So said Peter Fisher when asked why he was in Hong Kong the other day.

Fisher's name will be familiar to observers of the global economy. While he was at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the late 1990s, he coordinated efforts to prevent the meltdown of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management from derailing the international financial system. In 2001, while working at the U.S. Treasury, he oversaw the scrapping of the 30-year bond.

Now Fisher, 49, is back in the private sector and moving to the region that's the next bond market frontier. ``Asia is just booming,'' said Fisher, head of Asia operations at New York- based investment firm BlackRock Inc.

Last week, many of his peers were in Asia for a ``Global Bond Summit'' hosted by the Bond Market Association. That the New York-based group chose Hong Kong, the gateway to China and Asia's economic boom, says it all.

snip>

Attention now is turning to Asia's nascent underwriting boom. Last week, Hong Kong's swankiest hotel lounges, pubs and eateries were awash in Western bond marketers with dollar signs in their eyes. The scenes were reminiscent of a decade ago, when corporate executives trickled in to Asia to expand businesses and pump up profits.

more...

[UpInArms]

58. IMF sees scope for China to allow yuan to strengthen

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38677.5010961806-851578523&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The IMF urged China, once again, to allow the yuan to strengthen against the dollar. "China's current strong economic position represents a favorable environment to allow greater exchange rate flexibility," IMF staffer David Burton said in a conference call with reporters Monday. While a period of stability after China switched to a currency basket on July 21 was "understandable," there is now scope for further moves to allow the yuan to strengthen, Burton said.

12:01pm 11/21/05 IMF; CHINA'S MUST REBALANCE GROWTH TOWARDS CONSUMPTION

12:01pm 11/21/05 IMF: CHINA'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS 'BROADLY FAVORABLE'

12:01pm 11/21/05 IMF: CHINA'S ECONOMY HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED

12:01pm 11/21/05 IMF SEES SCOPE FOR CHINA TO ALLOW YUAN TO STRENGTHEN

[54anickel]

64. China to IMF --- Uh, no. Now STFU....n/t

[54anickel]

68. Pretty much the same thing they told BeelzeBush

Bush's China visit fails to narrow differences

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2005-11-21T111038Z_01_KNE962536_RTRUKOC_0_US-BUSH-CHINA.xml&archived=False

BEIJING (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's visit to Beijing, which ended on Monday, had the trappings of a whistle-stop campaign appearance intended to sell his message that the United States wants China to free up its politics and economy before the two countries can move closer.

But the closely scripted encounter between Bush and his Chinese hosts seemed to retrace, not narrow, the differences, analysts said.

snip>

While China's leaders sidestepped direct dispute with Bush on these issues, they sent their own message swaddled in diplomatic rhetoric -- that China wants to protect its rising economic and political power, but not confront the United States.

PEACEFULLY DEVELOPING

Chinese President Hu Jintao repeated his refrain that China is a "peacefully developing" country whose rising wealth and influence need not threaten other countries.

snip>

China's mantra about "peaceful development" is part of an evolving "counter-containment" strategy to blunt but not confront U.S. diplomatic clout in Asia, said Evan Medeiros, a Washington-based expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Rand Corporation, a policy thinktank.

It's partly a reassurance strategy to help to build an environment where China's not seen as a threat and other countries won't work with the U.S. to try to contain China," he said.

more...

Oh you silver-tongue devil, you :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

84. Why Western governments fall apart (OUCH!!!)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GK15Aa01.html

Never have the governments of the old Atlantic alliance appeared as weak as they do today. President George W Bush, his popularity ruined and his political agenda junked, is boxed into a corner, but his position seems enviable compared to that of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who just lost a decisive battle over anti-terror measures.

But both appear strong compared to President Jacques Chirac, who has let France slip into civil unrest. Germany, despite last week's appointment of Angela Merkel as federal chancellor, in effect has no government, for the parallelogram of political forces neutralizes all parties. Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi must do his best to avoid prison after the seizure of funds from his media company.

The leaders of the West seem to somnambulate through affairs of state, oblivious to the disaster around them. In her mercy, history anesthetizes those whom she intends to destroy, wrote Leon Trotsky in his History of the Russian Revolution. He had in mind Czar Nicholas II's diary entries for the days before the October Revolution of 1917, full of court gossip and the minutiae of family life, but without a glimmer of the doom soon to befall him.

No part of the political spectrum can take comfort from this predicament. Those who want to subject American policy to the counsel of the world community, as Senator John Kerry proposed, now have difficulty identifying who that world community might be ? surely not France, which has become an embarrassment, and surely not the United Nations, which has a black eye from its scandal-plagued Iraq oil-for-food program. Only in Beijing and Tokyo do we find strong governments in powerful nations.

Is it simple coincidence that the West cannot field a single functioning government? The punditry dismisses Bush as dumb, Blair as smarmy, Chirac as arrogant, Berlusconi as bent, and Merkel - well, when they discover some identifying characteristics of the new German chancellor, the punditry doubtless will find grounds to dismiss her as well. Perhaps it is just the luck of the draw, but the odds do not favor the interpretation that all the big nations of the West had the misfortune to find themselves led by ninnies at precisely the same time.

more...

[UpInArms]

59. Energy costs imperil holiday spending

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B07E6C77D%2DC5DE%2D44BC%2D8FA0%2D68257712A52E%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nearly one-third of U.S. shoppers say they'll cut back on spending this holiday season as worries about the price of gasoline and home heating costs dampen consumer sentiment, two groups said Monday.

But the Consumer Federation of America and the Credit Union National Association said they expect spending to nevertheless rise 5% above last year's levels, in line with previous years.

"We're expecting a hefty increase in holiday sales this year, of around 5%," said Bill Hampel, chief economist of the Credit Union National Association.

"The biggest risk to that is if early heating bills that households get before the holiday spending season is over really shock people," he said.

<snip>

In addition, 41% of respondents said the cost of gasoline and home heating oil would decrease their spending, according to the poll. Conducted Nov. 10-13 among more than 1,000 Americans, it has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

...more...

[54anickel]

60. China's welfare push to help economic rebalancing

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-11-21T055029Z_01_KWA120962_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-CHINA-POLICY.xml

snip>

Worried by a widening rich-poor gap that could undermine stability, Beijing has already stepped up spending on social security and scrapped agricultural taxes. It is also lifting the threshold on personal income tax and plans to make compulsory school education free in rural areas.

snip>

A quarter of a century of economic reforms has fueled breakneck growth, but it has also ended cradle-to-grave welfare as Beijing subjected health care and education to market forces.

Reduced subsidies have forced hospitals to raise charges that are beyond the reach of most of China's 800 million peasants. Schools and universities have raised tuition fees.

The growing bills have not only sparked public anger but have also left ordinary Chinese with less money to spend. Low incomes were especially an obstacle to consumption in the countryside, Tang said.

snip>

The large contingent liabilities Beijing faces also call for caution, some say. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said fully resolving China's non-performing bank loans could cost close to 30 percent of GDP.

I thought they suckered the big banks like JP Morgan to buy up a lot of that bad debt? I didn't think the risk of bad-debt was that high for China anymore? :shrug:

more...

[UpInArms]

61. 12:11 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,773.69 +7.36 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,226.21 -0.86 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,248.69 +1.42 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.451 -0.51 (-1.13%)

NYSE Volume 923,593,000
Nasdaq Volume 807,464,000

12:00PM : In tandem on positive turf, the market's majors have managed to hang on to gains as they head into the lunch hour. Amid a dearth of economic and corporate news and during this holiday-shortened week, gains are modest, though; at the same time, losses have been kept well in check and rest within Technology's 0.3% decline and Healthcare's 0.1% slip. Catalyzed by an uptick in the price of crude (+$0.50 $57.70 per barrel) - following the commodity's lowest close in five months on Friday - the Energy sector (+1.1%) seized the early leadership position and lends the most support to the broader market. Wal-Mart's (WMT 49.67 +0.17) reaffirmed November same store sales guidance of +3-5% has paired with an upside earnings-related rise in Campbell's Soup (CPB 30.69 +0.99) in lifting the Consumer Staples sector (+0.3%), while retailers' positive stance, outperforming homebuilders, and rising GM (GM 24.15 +0.10) shares keep the Discretionary sector (+0.1%) above the flat line. With respect to General Motors, the company's CEO Rick Wagoner discussed the details of the company's turnaround plan this morning, which includes plant closures and healthcare cuts in targeting $7 billion in cost savings by the end of 2006. Fellow Dow component Boeing (BA 68.70 +1.75), which stands with Hewlett-Packard as the average's best performer this year, serves as a crutch for the broader market after announcing hefty airplane orders received this weekend. Due largely to BA and Lockheed Martin (LMT 61.64 +1.68), which nixed a buyout of Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC 48.15 -6.70) that it and three private equity firms had been negotiating, the Industrials sector has risen 0.3% gain. CSC's subsequent 12% plunge weighs on the Tech sector, teaming with submerged semis, software, and hardware in holding it below the unchanged mark. Financials' (+0.1%) rebound, which can be attributed to gains exerted by Fannie Mae (FNM 48.90 +1.16) and American Express (AXP 50.32 +0.41), has helped to somewhat lift the lid off of the overall market. With respect to the former, shares have headed north upon a launch of $3 billion in new five-year benchmark notes; the latter issue has gotten a boost following an ugrade at UBS from Neutral to Buy. Extended strength within Treasuries - after that market's first back-to-back weekly gains in two months - also bodes well for the Financials sector and for the equity market at large. Separately, the session featured one piece of economic data; October leading indicators rose 0.9% (consensus +0.8%), but the data was essentially overlooked. NYSE Adv/Dec 1551/1550, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1313/1553

[UpInArms]

66. 1:05 EST to hell with employees and consumers - we're having a Rally!

Dow 10,783.37 +17.04 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,228.72 +1.65 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,249.64 +2.37 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.461 -0.41 (-0.91%)

NYSE Volume 1,114,594,000
Nasdaq Volume 950,508,000

12:35PM: Little has changed for the indices as the second half of the session gets underway. Although laggards still dominate the Dow, the average maintains solid standing on account of particular strength in Boeing (BA), Altria (MO), DuPont (DD), and American Express (AXP). Of the laggards, only Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has slipped in excess of 1.0%. Pharmaceuticals are a pocket of relative weakness today, helping to keep the Healthcare sector (-0.3%) below the unchanged mark.NYSE Adv/Dec 1589/1548, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1348/1561

[UpInArms]

76. 2:35 EST Partying on at the Wall Street B&G

Dow 10,794.18 +27.85 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,233.65 +6.58 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,251.02 +3.75 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.457 -0.45 (-1.00%)

NYSE Volume 1,437,942,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,199,584,000

2:00PM: Sideways trading persists, with the averages holding their places despite two more sectors' drops - Telecom and Utilities - into the red. Energy (+1.2%) continues to stand as the session's leader, driven by oil and gas explorers but supported by each of the S&P 500's six subgroups. All but one of the market's energy issues (MRO) currently lends a gain, with over three-quarters of them up at least 1.0%. Since August, Briefing.com has maintained an Overweight rating on the Energy sector - favoring oil and gas drillers, services, equipment, refining, and marketing industries as pent up demand within the international markets will support volume and pricing gains. In our portfolio of recommended holdings for active investors, we include services company BJ Services (BJS 34.97 +0.45), which has risen 1.3% today. NYSE Adv/Dec 1797/1416, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1536/1425

1:30PM: In the absence of a catalyst to either drive further buying or spark selling, the market has stood still since the last update. During this holiday-shortened week, both the economic and earnings calendars are light ones. Here's a look at what the remainder of the week offers. Tomorrow, Albertson's (ABS), Deere (DE) Dillard's (DDS), HJ Heinz (HNZ), and Tech Data (TECD) are amongst the companies slated to report earnings; minutes from the FOMC's November 1 meeting are the only economic item. Wednesday, Hormel Foods (HRL) is one of the four companies due to deliver earnings results, while last weeks' initial claims, the revised University of Michigan sentiment report for November, the October help-wanted index, and the latest energy inventory report fill the economic calendar. The market is closed for Thanksgiving Thursday, and Friday is absent of data on either front.

[54anickel]

81. Risky Business those, parties are...

[UpInArms]

82. 3:05 EST Breaking out the Champagne - 10,800 has been achieved!

Dow 10,800.35 +34.02 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,233.58 +6.51 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,251.57 +4.30 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.465 -0.37 (-0.82%)

NYSE Volume 1,560,755,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,291,765,000

2:30PM: More of the same for the equity market, which has held the major averages relatively static over the past hour. Small cap stocks are outperforming today, reflected in the 0.5% rise posted by the Russell 2000 Index. The S&P 400 Midcap, meanwhile, is at historic highs. On the session, the index has gained 0.4%, adding to its 9.9% year-to-date return. For perspective, the S&P 500 is up 3.0% on the year; the Russell 2000 has lifted 3.2% year-to-date. Separately, the Nasdaq remains at four and one-half year highs, to which it adds a 0.3% gain today. NYSE Adv/Dec 1847/1367, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1630/1358

[54anickel]

77. Ben Bernanke's Favorite Stock

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/futureinvest/1566

snip>

You may say that being nominated Fed chair does not imply any special investment savvy by its nominee. That may be true, but Mr. Bernanke, a superb economist, knows a good deal when he sees it. In fact, according to my research, Philip Morris has offered better long-term returns to its stockholders than any other stock, nearly doubling the returns on the market over the last half century and crushing the performance of virtually every other mutual fund and active money manager. Let the facts speak for themselves.

snip>

Why did Big Mo (as traders affectionately call Philip Morris because of its ticker symbol "MO") do so well? For a simple reason, there are millions of investors out there who won't touch this stock with a 10-foot pole. And that keeps its price down and its returns high.

I'm not criticizing investors who won't buy Philip Morris stock on moral grounds. I abhor smoking, believe it is a leading cause of death, and grant that threats of litigation and legal liabilities plague the company. Furthermore, the trends for its primary products are bad: The number of cigarette smokers has steadily declined in the U.S. over the past decade and will soon do so in the rest of the world.

But these fears are precisely the reason Philip Morris has done so well for those that stuck with the stock. Everyone worried so much about this company that its stock often traded at ridiculously low prices. And, the company continued to churn out profits and pay investors most of its earnings in the form of dividends. Its low price and high payouts mean the stock's dividend yield has been extraordinarily high. Since 1992 the average dividend yield of Phillip Morris has been 5.2 percent, versus only 1.9 percent for the S&P 500 Index.

Gee, ya don't suppose he's got enough insider info to know damned well the gov't won't allow them to be touched, do ya? :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

80. 2:43 update and I gotta run

Dow 10,797.15 +30.82 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,232.81 +5.74 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,251.05 +3.78 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.461% -0.04
NYSE Volume 1,472,933,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,226,152,000

2:00PM: Sideways trading persists, with the averages holding their places despite two more sectors' drops - Telecom and Utilities - into the red. Energy (+1.2%) continues to stand as the session's leader, driven by oil and gas explorers but supported by each of the S&P 500's six subgroups. All but one of the market's energy issues (MRO) currently lends a gain, with over three-quarters of them up at least 1.0%. Since August, Briefing.com has maintained an Overweight rating on the Energy sector - favoring oil and gas drillers, services, equipment, refining, and marketing industries as pent up demand within the international markets will support volume and pricing gains. In our portfolio of recommended holdings for active investors, we include services company BJ Services (BJS 34.97 +0.45), which has risen 1.3% today. NYSE Adv/Dec 1797/1416, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1536/1425

1:30PM: In the absence of a catalyst to either drive further buying or spark selling, the market has stood still since the last update. During this holiday-shortened week, both the economic and earnings calendars are light ones. Here's a look at what the remainder of the week offers. Tomorrow, Albertson's (ABS), Deere (DE) Dillard's (DDS), HJ Heinz (HNZ), and Tech Data (TECD) are amongst the companies slated to report earnings; minutes from the FOMC's November 1 meeting are the only economic item. Wednesday, Hormel Foods (HRL) is one of the four companies due to deliver earnings results, while last weeks' initial claims, the revised University of Michigan sentiment report for November, the October help-wanted index, and the latest energy inventory report fill the economic calendar. The market is closed for Thanksgiving Thursday, and Friday is absent of data on either front.



Damn, lost my star!!! Skinner, the checks in the mail...honest! I feel so....naked :blush:

Have a great day everyone! :hi:

[UpInArms]

86. 3:40 EST Corks Popping All Over the Floor!

YEEHAW!

Dow 10,829.24 +62.91 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,241.35 +14.28 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 1,255.47 +8.20 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.461 -0.41 (-0.91%)

NYSE Volume 1,784,351,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,469,731,000

3:30PM: Establishing new session highs, the market's majors are headed for a close that will begin a fifth straight week of gains. Aside from the indices' stances reflecting an increased bullishness during the final trading hour, the market's breadth serves as further indication. Advancers and decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq have been more or less gridlocked since this morning. At this time, however, advancers have taken the edge on both exchanges. At the Big Board, advancers outpace decliners 9-to-7, while advancers maintain an 8-to-7 lead at the Composite. NYSE Adv/Dec 1843/1403, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1638/1384

The connection between Wall Street and Main Street is just astonishing! :sarcasm:

[Roland99]

88. "Gonna get me some year-end bonus!" BUY! BUY! BUY!

[ozymandius]

89. Quitting time

Tens of thousands out of work means more food on the table of tens of CEO families. See! The numbers don't lie. At the end of the year nearly everybody who's somebody on Wall Street wins.

Dow 10,820.28 +53.95 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,241.67 +14.60 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,254.85 +7.58 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 44.61 -0.41 (-0.91%)
NYSE Volume 2,090,984,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,701,351,000

Paving the way towards a fifth consecutive week of gains, each of the equity market's major indices finished the session at their best level of the session. While quiet economic and earnings fronts limited market-moving catalysts today, buyers maintained control of the trading action and pushed all of the ten economic sectors higher. Rises in a pair of Dow components spurred some early bullishness; Boeing (BA 68.96 +2.01) soared after landing some hefty jet orders this weekend, and General Motors (GM 23.56 -0.49) jumped after CEO Rick Wagoner discussed the company's four-point turnaround plan that aims to shave $7 billion in costs by the end of next year. While the former remained a bright spot till the end of trading, the latter reversed course mid-afternoon and fully relinquished its intraday gain; the loss of GM's leadership, however, was more than offset by broad-based buying efforts that continue to position the market for a traditional year-end rally that is apt to close the S&P with the 5% gain Briefing.com expects for 2005. Energy assumed the front-running position from the early going, rising alongside an uptick in crude (+$0.52 $57.75 per barrel) following its lowest close in five months on Friday. While that sector's 2.1% gain provided the most substantial support, BA paired with Lockheed Martin (LMT 61.21 +1.25) to push Industrials to a solid 0.7% rise. Regarding LMT, the stock was sent higher following reports that the company and the consortium it lead has decided against an acquisition of Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC 48.39 -6.46). CSC, conversely, plunged. While the Technology sector's advance had been stunted for most of the session, wide-spread buying similarly took root there and pulled it just above the flat line. Aided particularly by an upgrade-induced run in American Express (AXP 50.87 +0.96), as well as through relative strength found in both brokers and banks, Financials extended a 0.5% gain. Day-long strength within the Treasury market, following two weeks of back-to-back gains, perhaps directed some further buying interest towards the rate-sensitive sector. Consumer Staples also maintained solid standing, lifted 0.3% on account of reaffirmed November same-store sales guidance of +3-5% from Wal-Mart (WMT 49.62 +0.12) and because of an upside-earnings sparked rise in Campbell Soup (CPB 30.95 +1.25). Healthcare recovered just before the bell and booked +0.2%; Materials (+0.6%), Telecom (+0.3%) Utilities (+0.2%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%) also rose. This holiday-shortened week offers little in the way of either economic or earnings data; today's economic calendar featured just one item - October leading indicators (+0.9% versus +0.8% consensus) - which was essentially overlooked by the stock and bond markets alike. NYSE Adv/Dec 2036/1266, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1893/1159