STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 6 February

[ozymandius]

Monday February 6, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1078 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1873 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1573 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1534
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 3, 2006

Dow... 10,793.62 -58.36 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq... 2,262.58 -18.99 (-0.83%)
S&P 500... 1,264.03 -6.81 (-0.54%)
30-Year Bond 4.64% -0.06 (-1.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.53% -0.03 (-0.61%)
Gold future... 571.60 -5.20 (-0.91%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Dow Theory and the Dogs of the Dow

As a part of the Dow Report, we are also going to be monitoring what is commonly known as “The Dogs of the Dow.” The Dogs of the Dow is a “portfolio” of such that is based on the Top Ten dividend yielding stocks within the Dow 30 as of January 1st of each year. We will not only track the performance of the “Dogs” verses the Industrials, but we will also periodically look at the charts of the Industrials verses the underlying Dow Jones Top Ten Index, which is an index that approximates the Dogs of the Dow.

-cut-

Thus far, the Dogs of the Dow are up 13.79% for the year while the Industrials themselves are up .71%.

Below we have a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the upper window and the Dow Jones Top Ten Index in the lower window. These charts are as of the close on February 2, 2006. I have used blue lines to illustrate shorter-term non-confirmations and red to illustrate the current long-term non-confirmation. Notice that each of the short-term non-confirmations has ultimately resulted in an intermediate term decline. Unless the current short-term non-confirmation is corrected, there is little reason to expect the outcome of this non-confirmation to be different from any of the others. Actually, based on the current overall technical picture, it is looking as if we could see a modest decline into the early spring. But, also based on the current overall technical picture, it looks as if that will only set the stage for the summer rally. Then, as I look over the technical horizon a bit, it appears that when the summer rally begins to fizzle, the bear should return because the cyclical phasing for latter 2006 is not looking good.



more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[skids]

2. A little homebrew dark humor.

To start your Monday.



Have a goodun!

[TrogL]

58. IDGI

[ret5hd]

78. NDI

[skids]

98. IGYHTBT.

But if it helps, the guy in the picture is John Snow, and the quote is otherwise notorious.

[EuroObserver]

3. Tokyo: Nikkei225 up 0.68% in first minutes; closed up 0.53%

Japanese Stocks Rise; Dollar Down vs. Yen
Japanese stocks rose Monday led by pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals and auto stocks following the release of robust economic data. The dollar was lower against the yen. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index gained 88.12 points, or 0.53 percent, to finish at 16,747.76 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index shed 50.91 points, or 0.30 percent, Friday. The broader Topix index, which includes Japan's largest companies, rose 4.34 points, or 0.25 percent, to 1,712.30 points. On Friday, the Topix was down 3.06 points, or 0.18 percent.

After opening higher, stocks fell in morning trading as players sold financials to take profits following recent gains. But the market's main index later moved into positive territory after government data, released Monday afternoon, showed Japan's economy is on a firm recovery course. Japan's December index of leading economic indicators stood at 80.0, above the boom-or-bust threshold of 50.0, the government said, underscoring the country's continued economic recovery. ...more...

Japan gov't bond, futures prices up on strong U.S. Treasury notes
(Kyodo) ...In interdealer trading, the yield on the No. 276 1.6 percent issue lost 0.025 percentage point from Friday's close to end the day at 1.555 percent.The price of the key March futures contract for 10-year bonds rose 0.20 point to 136.60 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with the yield down 0.017 percentage point to 1.713 percent. ...more...
--

-->Dollar quoted at 118.87-118.90 yen in Tokyo (9 am).

Nikkei rises as Sony, strong earners gain
(Reuters) - The Nikkei share average rose 0.46 percent at the start of trade on Monday, as investors bought shares in Sony Corp. (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and other firms whose earnings have outstripped market expectations. By 0002 GMT, the Nikkei <.N225> was up 0.50 percent at 16,742.79. The broader TOPIX index <.TOPX> gained 0.43 percent to 1,715.27.

Nikkei hits highest intraday since Sept 2000
(Reuters) - The Nikkei share average rose 0.68 percent on Monday to hit its highest intraday since September 2000... By 0008 GMT, the Nikkei <.N225> was up 0.60 percent or 99.93 points at 16,759.57. It earlier rose as high as 16,772.64...

Mitsubishi Materials up on forecast
(Reuters) - The following stock is on the move on Monday: **MITSUBISHI MATERIALS (5711.T: Quote, Profile, Research) RISES, REVISES UP FORECAST** Non-ferrous metals manufacturer Mitsubishi Materials Corp. rises 2.8 percent to 655 yen after touching 662 yen, its highest level in more than a decade. On Friday the company posted an almost fourfold rise in group net profit in the nine months to December from a year earlier thanks to strong demand from the auto and construction industries. The company also raised its full-year profit forecast again after lifting it in November.
--

Dollar weakens in upper 118 yen, held up by U.S. rate hike prospects
(Kyodo) _ The U.S. dollar suffered a lack of fresh incentives Monday in Tokyo, weakening at the upper 118 yen level on exporters' selling while being shored up by growing market expectations of further interest rate hikes in the United States.
At 5 p.m., the dollar traded at 118.67-69 yen, compared with Friday's 5 p.m. quotes of 118.89-99 yen in New York and 118.49-52 yen in Tokyo. It moved between 118.50 yen and 118.95 yen, trading most frequently at 118.65 yen.
The euro traded at $1.1995-1998 and 142.36-40 yen against Friday's 5 p.m. quotes of $1.2019-2029 and 142.95-143.05 yen in New York and $1.2074-2077 and 143.09-13 yen in Tokyo.
...more...
--

BOJ practices patience as markets eye April shift
TOKYO, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its super-easy monetary policy unchanged this week, though market expectations for a policy shift as early as around April remain intact amid an upturn in consumer prices. Although prices have now been out of negative territory for three straight months, the BOJ's nine-member Policy Board has yet to be fully convinced they have stabilised in positive territory. That is the BOJ's condition for ending its nearly five-year-old "quantitative easing" policy.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Monday the core consumer price index (CPI) remains the main benchmark for the central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy, although the central bank was watching other price indicators as well.
...
Financial markets will be closely watching for any signs from Fukui after the central bank concludes a two-day policy-setting meeting on Thursday, especially about the timing of a possible shift (in) monetary policy after such a move.... "We have to be sure we are flying solidly and are able to withstand some side winds. We can't change policy when we've just lifted off," one official said.
...
Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.1 percent in December from a year ago, after a 0.1 percent gain in November and a flat reading in October.... Core CPI is expected to rise around 0.4-0.5 percent in the January-March quarter. Nationwide core CPI data for January will be released on March 3.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

12. East Asia: markets end mostly up

...See EastAsian Markets Report...

[EuroObserver]

4. Europe: markets open firm; banks, oils, miners move; crude at $66.05

Cautious start expected for Europe
A cautious start was expected for European stock markets on Monday as rising tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions caused crude oil prices to move higher. The crisis escalated on Sunday after Iran announced plans to resume all parts of its atomic programme and ended its acceptance of snap United Nations inspections. Spread betting companies in London were calling for the FTSE 100, German Dax and French CAC 40 to open between 5 points lower and 10 points higher. Last week, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 hit a 4½ year high on Wednesday at 1,333.32, but weakness in oil stocks pared the gains, leaving the index almost unchanged on the week at 1,320.9.
--

Swiss SMI up 0.13% at 7850.95 Zurich 09:16:08 CET
CAC 40 opens up 0.4% at 4,957.98 Paris 09:04 CET
DAX up +0.45% at 5,682.51 Frankfurt 09:36 CET
FTSE 100 opens up 0.3% at 5,777.1 London 08:03 GMT
FTSE 250 up 0.2% at 9,261.2 London 08:46 GMT
FTSE-ALL SHARE up+0.26% at 2,939.34 London 08:36 GMT
FTSE EUROTOP up +0.39% at 2,834.41 London 08:36 GMT
DJ EURO STOXX50 up +0.46% at 3,695.38 Frankfurt 09:36 CET
--

European shares up on bank takeovers, higher oil
PARIS, Feb 3 (Reuters) - European shares opened slightly higher on Monday after France's BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) launched a 9-billion-euro ($10.8-billion) takeover bid for Italy's sixth biggest bank BNL (BANI.MI: Quote, Profile, Research), and as energy stocks gained on surging oil prices. The pan-European FTSEurofirst index of 300 leading shares was 0.3 percent higher at 1,323.60 by 0807 GMT, after closing flat on Friday at 1,320.29.

"Bank M&A is going to push the markets up," said a Paris-based trader. BNP's bid, launched on Friday, is its biggest European expansion outside France and has rekindled broader merger speculation, analysts said. This pushed the banks up to be one of the top sectoral gainers on Monday.
...

The bourses were also helped higher by gains in oil and gas stocks, with BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) up 0.8 percent and Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) up 0.7 percent. Oil prices surged after Iran resumed uranium enrichment and ended United Nations checks of its nuclear sites in response to being reported to the Security Council over concerns it is developing nuclear weapons. U.S. light crude oil <CLc1> jumped as much as $1.25 a barrel in early trade and was last trading up 1.5 percent, at $66.05 by 0805 GMT.

"Oil prices look set to play a key role in directing equities in the early part of the week as concerns over the situation in Iran come to the fore once again," said a trader with CMC Markets in London. Despite past assurances from Tehran that it will not use oil as a political weapon, dealers fear that deteriorating relations and intensified rhetoric on both sides could lead to a disruption in supplies from the world's fourth-largest exporter.

...more...

FTSE opens higher as bid talk resumes
LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Britain's top shares opened higher on Monday, with mergers and acquisitions activity boosting Lloyds TSB (LLOY.L: Quote, Profile, Research), retailer GUS (GUS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and telecoms operator Cable & Wireless (CW.L: Quote, Profile, Research). Takeover talk and deals across several sectors have helped push UK equities to successive 4-1/2 year highs in recent months and analysts expect the trend to continue with valuations still relatively cheap. By 0825 GMT, the FTSE 100 <.FTSE> was 15.3 points, or 0.3 percent, higher at 5,774.6, having closed 12 points higher on Friday.
...

Miners such as Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rose as copper, gold and other metals prices traded at or around multi-year highs. On the downside, Cairn Energy (CNE.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 1.5 percent after Merrill Lynch cut its rating on the stock to "neutral", and bank Northern Rock (NRK.L: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped 1.6 percent after Deutsche Bank cut its investment rating to "hold".

...more...

[EuroObserver]

8. FTSE near 4-1/2 yr highs as bid talk dominates

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 share index rose on Monday as another wave of takeover talk boosted UK equities... The FTSE <.FTSE> is trading around 4-1/2 year highs, in part buoyed by a prolonged period of mergers and acquisition activity, both rumoured and realised.

"We are in an environment where there are a lot of M&A rumours and a reasonable amount of (actual) M&A so I do not think these rumours are confounded," said Graham Secker, UK equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. But Secker believes current investor enthusiasm fuelled by M&A is a good reason to consider selling out of equities. "The market is getting quite close to a top now so we would be looking to sell into further strength and, at some stage, we would expect to see a reasonable sized correction, given how opportunistic and bullish investors are," he said. "It feels a bit frothy at the moment -- we need a period of consolidation."

By 1132 GMT, the FTSE was 24.6 points, or 0.4 percent, higher at 5,783.9 points -- about 30 points below the 4-1/2 year high of 5,816 set on Feb. 1

...more...

[EuroObserver]

20. Europe higher in lunchtime trade on banking, Repsol bid hopes

European stock markets extended initial gains by lunchtime helped by hopes of further consolidation in the banking sector and takeover speculation surrounding Repsol. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.5 per cent to 1,326.3 while the German Xetra Dax increased 0.6 per cent to 5,690.1 and the French CAC 40 gained 0.2 per cent at 4,947.0.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

94. Europe closed "frothy" despite Wall St.

Swiss SMI down -0.02% at CHF 7839.61 Zurich 17:30:18
CAC 40 down 0.1% at 4,934.6 in closing exchanges in Paris 16:34
Xetra Dax 30 up 0.2% at 5,668.2 in closing exchanges in Frankfurt 16:33
FTSE 250 up 0.4% at 9,281.3 in closing exchanges in London 16:32
FTSE 100 up 0.2% at 5,770.6 in closing exchanges in London 16:31

European shares close up, bank consolidation eyed
LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - European shares closed higher on Monday, lifted by consolidation hopes in the banking sector but held back by a lacklustre Wall Street.

Oil stocks rose as crude headed back towards $66 a barrel, and DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) led autos up following higher German car registrations, but mixed earnings from companies such as Serono (SEO.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ryanair (RYA.I: Quote, Profile, Research) capped gains.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares closed 0.1 percent higher at 1,321.65 but had been as high as 1,327.77 before U.S. markets opened. ...more...

FTSE ends up as bid talk blooms for Boots and C&W
LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - UK blue chips closed higher on Monday as yet more mergers and acquisitions talk boosted shares, with health and beauty retailer Boots (BOOT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and telecoms firm Cable & Wireless (CW.L: Quote, Profile, Research) leading the way ahead.
...
"What we need now is some concrete activity on the M&A front, not just rumour. You want to see a bid for one of Unilever, Lloyds TSB, Cable & Wireless, Boots -- preferably more than one -- to keep this market going, because at the moment it's frothy due to takeover talk. An awful lot of previous underperformers are going up because of M&A talk," said Cook at Barclays Stockbrokers.

[EuroObserver]

5. Eastern Europe: Shortcut to EU market for Taiwan

TAIPEI, Feb 6 Asia Pulse - With plentiful natural and human resources and cheap land costs, Eastern Europe is a shortcut that Taiwan businesses can take advantage of to enter the European Union market, according to a report by the Chung Hua Institute for Economic Research (CIER).

The report noted that the entry of 10 countries, including Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, into the E.U. in 2004 represented a market expansion for Taiwan businesses maintaining trade with Central and Eastern European countries.

As customs duties of Eastern European countries that entered the E.U. have generally declined after E.U. tariff measures became applicable to them, more Taiwan enterprises should explore business opportunities there, the report said.

It pointed out that the abundant natural resources, outstanding basic industry and high-tech talent, the cheap land and labor costs, the perfect geographical location, and the preferential policies offered by Eastern European countries all make the region a shortcut for Taiwan enterprises intending to gain access to the European market and develop technology-intensive industries.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

6. East Asia can achieve European living standard

SINGAPORE (AFP) - East Asia can achieve a European standard of living in less than 50 years, former Singapore prime minister Goh Chok Tong said.

The economic progress by member countries including Malaysia, Thailand and India bodes well for the 16 mostly Southeast Asian nations that met last December for the inaugural East Asian Summit that also included Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, China and Japan, Goh said.

"These countries aim to achieve a prosperous and peaceful East Asian Community in the future," Goh said in a speech at a regional forum. "I think that is realisable. We now have a unique set of circumstances to enable Asians to scale the mountain of prosperity.

"There is peace, although there are flashpoints. And globalisation and the IT revolution have opened up hitherto closed societies and connected economies," said Goh, who stepped down in 2004 and now holds the cabinet title of senior minister.

"I believe that East Asia can achieve Europe's present standard of living by 2030 or latest, by 2050. "In East Asia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand are already enjoying a standard of living comparable to Europe's."
...

Leaders from the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, along with South Korea, China, India, Japan, Australia and New Zealand gathered in Kuala Lumpur in December for the first East Asian Summit.

They vowed to work together on enhancing the region's economic prosperity and to tackle other issues including energy security and financial stability...

...more...

[Mnemosyne]

7. That toon is insulting

to Nixon. He was a saint compared to *! imo

Thanks Oz and EO!

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w

Last trade 90.16 Change +0.28 (+0.31%)

Testing Support

One can hardly call last week’s news unequivocally positive but it was good enough to rally the dollar for another 66 basis points against the euro. The key driver for the week was the still hawkish Fed which gave all indications to got to 4.75% in March and possibly 5% money by the summer. The news brought out the carry traders in droves as they jockeyed for positions to benefit from further yield increases.

Yet the news from the “real” economy was not nearly as sanguine. NFPs missed their mark of 250K by printing at 193K, but were close enough to the magic 200K number to assuage the market. EUR/USD quickly spiked and then collapsed below 1.2000 after the release of the data. Still the data last week printed enough red surprises to stitch the Chinese national flag. Most troubling of all was the divergence between NFPs and the employment component of the ISM Services report which dropped by 5.8 points to hover just above the 50 boom/bust level.

In light of last week’s poor GDP showing the data appears to be indicating an inevitable US economic slowdown. That realization may finally strike the FX market as it begins to re-price that possibility into exchange rates. While the EUR/USD did plummet through the 1.2000 level it managed to bounce back above by end of day Friday. As long as 1.1950 holds the play may be to the euro’s side as this week unfolds.

...more...

Dollar slips but US rates provide support

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower on Monday but stayed within sight of a seven-week high against the yen after an upbeat U.S. jobs report and a fall in the unemployment rate last week reinforced expectations for higher U.S. interest rates.

Traders said Japanese exporters took advantage of the dollar's rise on Friday to pick up yen, helping pare back the U.S. currency's gains.

The dollar was also weaker against the euro after hitting a one-month peak against the single currency on Friday.

The U.S. currency had gained after U.S. jobs growth figures were revised higher for the last five months of 2005, keeping the market optimistic about economic recovery despite data showing that fewer new jobs were created than expected in January.

Other data showed that the U.S. jobless rate fell to a 4-1/2-year low of 4.7 percent.

The data pushed the U.S. currency up to key levels, but Japanese exporters are keen to buy yen around 118 yen and institutional investors are showing buying demand for euros around $1.1950.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. BOJ practices patience as markets eye April shift

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-06T071753Z_01_T342385_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-BOJ-UPDATE-1.XML

TOKYO, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its super-easy monetary policy unchanged this week, though market expectations for a policy shift as early as around April remain intact amid an upturn in consumer prices. Although prices have now been out of negative territory for three straight months, the BOJ's nine-member Policy Board has yet to be fully convinced they have stabilised in positive territory. That is the BOJ's condition for ending its nearly five-year-old "quantitative easing" policy.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Monday the core consumer price index (CPI) remains the main benchmark for the central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy, although the central bank was watching other price indicators as well.

Stable rises in the CPI would be key to judging whether Japan had emerged from its persistent deflation, he told a parliamentary committee.

<snip>

Financial markets will be closely watching for any signs from Fukui after the central bank concludes a two-day policy-setting meeting on Thursday, especially about the timing of a possible shift and monetary policy after such a move.

Fukui said after a policy-setting meeting last month that the central bank had entered a critical stage in policy decision-making.

"The markets see an end to quantitative easing as near," said Naomi Hasegawa, senior fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. "With the recent upturn in the core consumer price index, the probability of a shift in April is gradually taking hold.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. Euro at one-month low after rumored cental bank selling

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38754.3886312731-859514541&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The euro dropped to its lowest level against the dollar in a month early Monday. There are reports that Middle Eastern and Asian central banks are selling the euro, according to Action Economics. The euro last was down 0.04% at $1.1977 after earlier trading as low as $1.1965. The dollar was down 0.2% at 118.76 yen.

[54anickel]

39. Rising economic star warns of risks ahead

Looks like some people are finally beginning to pay attention to Rajan.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002785070_rajan05.html

WASHINGTON — These are quiet times in the global economy, just the sort of lull that worries Raghu Rajan, one of the University of Chicago's leading stars.

On loan to the International Monetary Fund, where he became the youngest-ever chief economist and the first from a developing country, the 42-year-old native of India sees risks on the rise in housing markets, hedge funds, pensions — all across the seemingly tame landscape of world finance.

Difficult to track and often disguised, the steady accumulation of risks has increased the odds of what Rajan cautiously terms "a greater probability of a catastrophic meltdown."

A sharp decline in home prices, for instance, could cripple the job market, trigger loan defaults, hurt anyone invested in mortgage securities and eventually undermine every moving part of the interconnected financial system.

"When you've let down your defenses, things can come and smack you," Rajan said.

Rajan is no Dr. Doom. His sophisticated ideas have won him the respect of the world's financial experts. Yet he is convinced that years of easy credit and the rapid expansion of financial markets have left little cushion if things go wrong.

"We haven't had a real storm in the financial markets since 1987," he said. "The cost of this thing could be tremendous if it turned out the wrong way."

more...

[UpInArms]

43. "a greater probability of a catastrophic meltdown."

Things that cannot go on forever, usually don't.

:eyes:

[AnneD]

54. So when can we get that cush job ....

at the IMF. Let's see. Wolfowitiz is at the WB right? As long as I don't have to work under that spittle smearing, line my pockets, gonna be suprised economist----I'll be fine.
Seems we may be ahead of the curve on this. Say... anyone have a good resource on what happened in the depression. I have a feeling some of these folks are going to have their clocks cleaned.

[UpInArms]

63. Here are some interesting notes on the Depression Timeline

TIMELINES OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION:

This page features two timelines: the first for general events of the Roaring 20s and the Great Depression, the second for leading economic indicators.

The importance of these timelines cannot be emphasized enough. Seeing the order in which events actually occurred dispels many myths about the Great Depression. One of the greatest of these myths is that government intervention was responsible for its onset. Truly massive intervention began only under the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt in 1933, who was sworn in after the worst had already hit. Although his New Deal did not cure it, all the leading economic indicators improved on his watch.

But don't take my word for it -- here is the raw data:

TIMELINE OF GENERAL EVENTS

1920s (Decade)
During World War I, federal spending grows three times larger than tax collections. When the government cuts back spending to balance the budget in 1920, a severe recession results. However, the war economy invested heavily in the manufacturing sector, and the next decade will see an explosion of productivity... although only for certain sectors of the economy.

<snip>

Agricultural, energy and coal mining sectors are continually depressed. Textiles, shoes, shipbuilding and railroads continually decline.

The value of farmland falls 30 to 40 percent between 1920 and 1929.

Organized labor declines throughout the decade. The United Mine Workers Union will see its membership fall from 500,000 in 1920 to 75,000 in 1928. The American Federation of Labor would fall from 5.1 million in 1920 to 3.4 million in 1929.

"Technological unemployment" enters the nation's vocabulary; as many as 200,000 workers a year are replaced by automatic or semi-automatic machinery.

By the end of the decade, the bottom 80 percent of all income-earners will be removed from the tax rolls completely. Taxes on the rich will fall throughout the decade.

By 1929, the richest 1 percent will own 40 percent of the nation's wealth. The bottom 93 percent will have experienced a 4 percent drop in real disposable per-capita income between 1923 and 1929.

...more...

[AnneD]

101. Thanks...

I think I can come up with a parallel.

[UpInArms]

68. Chinese currency hits post-revaluation high

http://www.belleville.com/mld/belleville/business/13804117.htm

SHANGHAI, China - China's currency closed Monday at a post-revaluation high against the dollar, as local banks sold some of their dollar holdings after the lunar New Year holiday, traders said.

The dollar closed at 8.0555 on the automatic price-matching system. It opened at 8.0560 Monday. Before the Jan. 28-Feb. 5 holiday, it last traded in Shanghai at 8.0616, on Jan. 27.

Early Monday, the dollar was trading at 8.0558 on the over-the-counter market, after opening at 8.0555, its lowest trading level since a July 21 revaluation. The last OTC trade on Jan. 27 was at 8.0623.

The first trade took place about 15 minutes after the market opened as traders were surprised by the low opening rate posted for Monday.

The opening rate for the yuan, known as the dollar/yuan central parity, is set according to a weighted average of prices submitted by designated banks. The highest and lowest offers are excluded from the calculation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. U.S. Treasuries ease in Asia on profit-taking - inversion getting worse

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-06T053017Z_01_T347157_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-TREASURIES-ASIA.XML

TOKYO, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices fell on Monday as some Japanese investors booked profits after prices rebounded in the previous session on the prospect of strong demand for new 30-year bonds due to be auctioned later this week.

Friday's strong U.S. payrolls report reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in March, weighing especially on short-dated notes.

As a result, the curve between two-year and 10-year yields inverted further to be the most negative since the inversion began in late December.

Traders said the dollar's recent rally against the yen also encouraged profit-taking.

"It's basically profit-taking by Japanese investors, whose strategy was also influenced by moves in the currency market," said a trader at a Japanese brokerage.

<snip>

"It's possible that the yield inversion will grow even wider," the Japanese brokerage trader said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Treasurys lower ahead of afternoon sale of short-term notes

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38754.3788189931-859513808&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys were under pressure early Monday, pushing yields higher, ahead of an afternoon auction of new 3-month and 6-month notes. Investors often lighten their positions ahead of a Treasury sale. The benchmark 10-year note last was down 7/32 at 99-19/32 with a yield ($TNX) of 4.551%, up from 4.537% in late trade Friday. Action Economics attributed the selling early Monday to "profit-taking from Friday's gains, and as traders make some concessions for the upcoming refunding auctions."

[UpInArms]

55. U.S. Treasuries ease as looming auctions weigh

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T145407Z_01_N06346548_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries eased on Monday as the bond market braced for a week of heavy supply: $48 billion in debt sales, culminating with the return of the 30-year bond on Thursday for the first time in more than four years.

Traders said the market is also reflecting views that the Federal Reserve's campaign to control inflation by raising interest rates is likely to extend to its policy meeting in March -- and possibly beyond then.

The market did not react much to comments by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher, who said he expected the government to revise up its estimate of fourth-quarter growth, which came in below economists' expectations.

"It's supply, supply, supply," a trader at one of Wall Street's primary Treasuries dealers said, explaining Monday's declining prices.

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. ALERT: US 2-yr Treasury yields rise above 30-yr yields

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T152844Z_01_NYG000125_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-INVERSION-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Yields on two-year U.S. Treasury notes rose above those on 30-year bonds on Monday for the first time since December 2000, as demand for this week's 30-year auction stoked prices and pushed down yields.

The Treasury Department will sell $14 billion in 30-year debt on Thursday in the first auction of the so-called long bond in more than four years.

Interest in 30-year bonds led to the inversion, as buyers pushed prices up by 10/32, sending yields, which move in the opposite direction, down to 4.607 percent.

That was just enough for 30-year bonds to be yielding less than two-year notes, which were 2/32 lower in price, for a yield of 4.608 percent.

[UpInArms]

88. US 30-year Treasuries rise in pre-auction bidding

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T181418Z_01_N06472595_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Prices of 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose on Monday as dealers snatched up the paper ahead of Thursday's auction, but other maturities eased under the weight of new supply.

The Treasury will issue $48 billion in new debt this week, culminating in the sale of $14 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday, the first sale of the "long bond" in more than four years.

"Many have been saying the Treasury should return to issuing 30-year bonds. And the way they're trading lately suggests that that's true. There's a lot of pent-up demand and the issue is finding a good deal of buyers," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York."

Pension funds are looking for assets to match long-term liabilities, and 30-year bonds are particularly attractive to such buyers in the market, traders and analysts have said.

The heavy interest in 30-year debt pushed yields down on current long bonds to below those on two-year debt, an unusual state of affairs in the bond market known as an "inversion."

...more...

[UpInArms]

106. Treasury inversion numbers

2:38pm 02/06/06 2-YR TREASURY YIELD AT 4.621%; 30-YR YIELD AT 4.617%

[UpInArms]

115. Treasuries slip ahead of U.S. borrowing bonanza

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-06T204400Z_01_N06557702_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Most U.S. Treasury debt prices eased on Monday as the government prepared to borrow $48 billion this week, but the 30-year bond managed to hold positive on expectations for robust demand for the newly revived maturity.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> slipped 3/32 to yield 4.54 percent, up from 4.53 percent on Friday. In contrast, the long bond inched up 1/32 to yield 4.63 percent.

The 30-year bond had rallied on Friday as traders anticipated blockbuster demand for the issue, the first since August 2001.

As a part of its quarterly borrowing spree, the Treasury will raise $21 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $13 billion in 10-year debt on Wednesday and $14 billion over a 30-year horizon on Thursday.

"We expect great demand from overseas accounts in the long bond specifically, as pension rules in Europe are much more strict than current rules in the U.S.," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed-income at Investec U.S.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

11. U.S. stock futures point to strong start on Wall St

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday, indicating a higher start on Wall Street, after two days of losses, as oil prices came off earlier highs.... By 1050 GMT, both the Dow Jones industrial futures <DJH6> and the S&P 500 futures <SPH6> were up 0.3 percent, while Nasdaq 100 futures <NDH6> gained 0.4 percent.

"Clients remain largely bearish of U.S. indices on the whole but a good start to the week by Asian and European stocks means the U.S. futures point to a positive start," said Angus Campbell, market strategist at spreadbetters Finspreads.

U.S. light crude <CLc1> jumped as much as $1.25 a barrel to $66.6 a barrel, before easing to $65.9, still up 0.9 percent. Oil prices rose after Iran resumed uranium enrichment and ended United Nations checks of its nuclear sites in response to being reported to the Security Council over concerns it is seeking to build nuclear weapons.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. CUE: The Fed's Dog-and-Pony Show!

Fed's Fisher says U.S. economy on solid track

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said on Monday that U.S. fourth quarter growth could be revised higher and the country's rampant housing market did not pose the peril many seem to think.

"I would not be surprised if GDP were revised upward when we take a more definitive look at the fourth quarter," he told the Institute of Economic Affairs in a speech, the text of which was released to the media prior to delivery.

U.S. GDP grew by a tepid 1.1 percent annualised rate in the last three months of 2005.

Fisher, who is not a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate setting committee this year, noted that many economists were concerned that rapid U.S. consumer spending could suffer if the property market cooled too fast.

But he sounded less concerned and said the high number of home owners with fixed rate mortgages provide a buffer.

...more...

Isn't it interesting that the only reports that these jerks question are the ones that might reflect reality?

[UpInArms]

23. Fed promises to keep wages down

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T132245Z_01_LAE000083_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-USA-FED-FISHER.XML

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said he fully expected the U.S. central bank to keep control of inflation despite pressures on both the upside and downside.

"So far we have been able to accommodate them without losing control of inflation. We expect to continue to do so," he said in a question and answer session after a speech in London.

He also ducked a question about whether the Fed would consider adopting an inflation target -- a hot topic since Ben Bernanke has replaced Alan Greenspan at the head of the U.S. central bank this month.

Asked if he favoured such a target and at what level, Fisher said that was not a subject for today.

Wages are the only "inflation" this Fed recognizes.

[AnneD]

50. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: :wtf: I am so pizzed about this. You are right UIA. Let them keep 'controlling' wage pressure and just see where that takes them. Consumers are often said to be 2/3 of the economy. Well let them grow it without us. WalMart has shown you can make more money with discount stores verses high end retail (ie there are more middle to lower middle class consumers than high end). And this no tax cuts and expect to lower the deficit, what a diaper load. I am certain that hot air has reduced the oxygen level in the inner loop, thus leaving us with anoxic morons running the show. I am starting to wish this whole thing blows up in their faces ASAP so they can get full credit for the mess they are making.

[54anickel]

40. The Essence of the Greenspan Era

At the end of the Credit Bubble Bulletin

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Eighteen years is too long. Our Activist chairman Greenspan attained boundless power, and the greater the uncertainties that unfolded over this long boom the more intense the system’s desire to create a mythical commander with masterly control at the helm of the Federal Reserve. I am a reluctant proponent of the necessity for discretionary monetary policy, although I repudiate discretion placed interminably in the clinched hands of a single policymaker – especially in this age of unbridled global finance and leveraged speculation. There’s too much at stake and too much for society to lose from a period of runaway monetary instability. Undoubtedly, there have been profound financial, economic and social developments during Greenspan’s term, and this unelected official held extraordinary sway in orchestrating how things developed.



Greenspan championed financial liberation and a bastardized market and securities-based Credit system dependent upon myriad government assurances, guarantees, supports and bailouts. Under his watch, GSE holdings and guarantees exploded to surpass $4 Trillion. Over the same period, a small cadre of enormous financial institutions amassed unprecedented power and influence (market, financial, political and otherwise). With Greenspan’s blessing, global derivatives markets ballooned to unfathomable dimensions with unknowable risks. The “repo” market has mushroomed to the several trillion.



Greenspan’s discretion has availed incredible wealth upon the leveraged speculating community and their wealthy clients. Throughout the system, the aggressive borrower and speculator have done exceptionally well, at the expense of the prudent saver. Predictably, speculating has flourished and saving has foundered. And in the ultimate escapade of “trickle-down” economic management, the working class has been forced to lever up in real estate and gamble their retirements in the markets in a futile effort to not fall further behind. I consider the Greenspan Fed’s activist incitement of household mortgage Credit excesses for the purposes of post-technology Bubble reflation a despicable act. As always, Major Credit Bubbles are incredible mechanisms of wealth redistribution, in the process snaring the stalwart middle class in the slippery slope of Bubble Economy Wealth Illusion. The scope of injustices is masked until the bust.



Under his stewardship, the U.S. economy radically de-industrialized. This dovetailed too smoothly with an enterprising asset-based Credit system that was keen to (over)finance real estate and securities markets. Unparalleled Credit expansion assured a flourishing services-based economy and booming asset markets, in the process engendering profound structural distortions upon the real economy. Booming Asian investment and trade (“globalization”) assured a supply deluge of low-cost manufactured goods. Not unlike the U.S. in the Roaring Twenties and Japan during their eighties Bubble, disinflation in goods prices detracted from the paramount issue of highly destabilizing Credit and asset Bubbles. Greenspan could not have been oblivious to these dynamics.



The nature of U.S. economic output changed profoundly (less goods manufacturing, more services and tech), as did the character and scope of lending and asset speculation. It is my view that our astute chairman had a firm grasp on these developments. Yet he impetuously adopted an ideology that a secular surge in productivity gave the Fed greater leeway to accommodate loose financial conditions. A disciplined and less activist central banker would have approached these monumental changes with circumspection and caution.

more...

[UpInArms]

44. "financial liberation and a bastardized market"

[54anickel]

46. SNARF Is that more of that "Dark Matter" theory?

[54anickel]

45. Greenspan's Retirement

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

History suggests a rule. The bigger the bubble, the greater the esteem held for the perceived agent of prosperity. For example, in the late 1920s, Andrew Mellon was celebrated as the greatest treasury secretary since Alexander Hamilton. In the early 1930s, he was vilified.

Even someone as qualified as Milton Friedman has joined the celebration. The Nobel Laureate's op-ed piece in Tuesday's WSJ included: "Alan Greenspan's remarkable performance as Fed chairman demonstrated that it is possible to maintain stable prices."

No matter how it's sliced and diced, the statement doesn't fit with the record provided by the Bureau of Labour statistics (BLS), which is self-described as "the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of economics and statistics".

Mr. Greenspan's term began in August, 1987 and one of the accolades celebrates his intervention in the money market of 1987. What nonsense! This assumes that panics, without intervention, would run forever. That one was simply a correction off a huge "overbought" that was turned into a route by a self-feeding mechanism called "Portfolio Insurance".

PRICE STABILITY
AS DEFINED BY MILTON FRIEDMAN

                        Producer Price Index          Consumer Price Index
August, 1987          103.5                               114.4

December, 2005       163.0                              196.8

Gain                   + 57.5%                             + 72%


So during Greenspan's reign, the purchasing power of the consumer's dollar has been diminished by 72% and this is celebrated as "stability".

Deliberate depreciation of the purchasing power of currency has always and will always be considered as state theft.

more...

[54anickel]

72. Let's Bury Greenspan, Not Praise Him

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff020306.html

This week, Alan Greenspan bids a long overdue farewell to the Federal Reserve that he chaired for eighteen years. Praise from his Washington and Wall Street beneficiaries has naturally arrived by the boatload. His monetary policies enabled reckless and seemingly consequence-free deficit spending, helping incumbent politicians repeatedly win re-election; and his expansion of money supply and credit facilitated non-productive financial transactions, all to the benefit of the bankers who arranged them. It should be surprising to no one that he is so popular among these groups. The fact that Greenspan is so highly regarded by politicians and investment bankers is not a sign of how well he did his job however, but of how poorly.

Helping to win elections and fund bonuses comes with consequences, in this case an unbalanced U.S. economy teetering on the brink of economic disaster. During Greenspan's tenure America was transformed from the world's largest creditor to its greatest debtor, from the world's mightiest industrial power to a second rate service provider, and from a nation of responsible savers to one of reckless spenders. Self-sacrifice has been replaced by self indulgence, hard work by paper pushing, and genuine productivity by accounting gimmickry.

In effect, Greenspan helped Americans squander the "mother of all" inheritances. As any philandering playboy can attest, the process is easy and extremely enjoyable. However, it's not something worth bragging about. By focusing on consumption and asset prices, while ignoring debt, production and legitimate wealth creation, the Greenspan era was confused with one of genuine prosperity. To quote the great Ludwig Von Mises, "It may sometimes be expedient for a man to heat the stove with his furniture. But he should not delude himself by believing that he has discovered a wonderful new method of heating his premises."

As evidence of his mastery, Greenspan boosters point to what they call the "longest economic expansion in U.S. history," and to his seeming dexterity in dealing with financial crises. In fact, the only thing Greenspan succeeded in doing was delaying the inevitable. By blowing more air into every bubble he encountered, Greenspan succeeded largely by giving himself enough time to get out of Dodge before things got dicey. His long overdue departure would be an event worth celebrating, were it not for the fact that he is being succeeded by someone who may well be even more incompetent.

more...

[UpInArms]

76. Here's only one of the Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack's big lies:

Social Security is an "Entitlement" Program

While that would erect a high hurdle to Bush’s call for making his 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent, estimated to cost at least $1 trillion over a decade, Greenspan again repeated his belief that spending cuts rather than tax increases were the best way to deal with the exploding deficit.

While not ruling out totally the use of tax increases to deal with at least part of the looming surge in spending on Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs, Greenspan urged caution in increasing taxes.

“Tax rate increases of sufficient dimension to deal with our looming fiscal problems arguably pose significant risks to economic growth and the revenue base,” Greenspan said. “The exact magnitude of such risks is very difficult to estimate, but they are of enough concern, in my judgment, to warrant aiming to close the fiscal gap primarily, if not wholly, from the outlay side.”

Social Security is funded through payroll deductions into the FICA - under GREENSPAN in 1983 - the baby boomers became the first generation to pay for their retirement prior to their retirement - funding in advance -

Greenspan Déjà Vu

From an article from the October 3, 1983, Christian Science Monitor:

Worrying about your Social Security pension?

Don't, says Alan Greenspan, the head of a presidential commission that studied the Social Security system and saw many of its recommendations passed into law by Congress this spring.

Some analysts still forecast a failure of that system. But Mr. Greenspan . . . said it would take "a very adverse economic scenario" to create major financial problems for the retirement-disability side of the Social Security system. In other words, he views retirees' Social Security pensions as secure.

Indeed, the famous Greenspan commission had in 1983 assured the American people that Social Security had been "fixed" for at least 75 years--through 2058. Fast forward just 13 years to 1996 and things are not so sanguine. Social Security is in crisis again. There is at least a $6 trillion unfunded liability, and the system's cash flow turns negative around 2010.

The remainder of the last article is probably paid for propaganda (wasn't someone from the CATO caught doing just that regarding SS privatization?) - but the initial quote from the CSM from 1983 is appropriate.

[54anickel]

116. Three-Card Maestro (Krugman last Feb)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/18/opinion/18krugman.html?ex=1266469200&en=11307b956eab9268&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland

Alan Greenspan just did it again.

Four years ago, the Fed chairman lent crucial political support to the Bush tax cuts. He didn't specifically endorse the administration's plan, and if you read his testimony carefully, it contained caveats and cautions. But that didn't matter; the headlines trumpeted Mr. Greenspan's support, and legislation whose prospects had previously seemed dubious sailed through Congress.

On Wednesday Mr. Greenspan endorsed Social Security privatization. But there's a difference between 2001 and 2005. In 2001, Mr. Greenspan offered a convoluted, implausible justification for supporting everything the Bush administration wanted. This time, he offered no justification at all.

In 2001, some readers may recall, Mr. Greenspan argued that we needed to cut taxes to prevent the federal government from running excessively large surpluses. Even at the time it seemed obvious from his tortured logic that he was looking for some excuse, any excuse, to help out a Republican administration. His lack of sincerity was confirmed when projected surpluses turned into large deficits, and he nonetheless supported even more tax cuts.

This week, Mr. Greenspan offered no excuse for supporting privatization. In fact, he agreed with two of the main critiques of the administration's plan: that it would do nothing to improve the Social Security system's finances, and that it would lead to a dangerous increase in debt. Yet he still came out in favor of the idea.

more...


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/3/4/02350/40440


. . . Until the 1970's conservatives tended to be open about their disdain for Social Security and Medicare. But honesty was bad politics, because voters value those programs. So conservative intellectuals proposed a bait-and-switch strategy: First, advocate tax cuts, using whatever tactics you think may work - supply-side economics, inflated budget projections, whatever. Then use the resulting deficits to argue for slashing government spending.

And that's the story of the last four years. In 2001, President Bush and Mr. Greenspan justified tax cuts with sunny predictions that the budget would remain comfortably in surplus. But Mr. Bush's advisers knew that the tax cuts would probably cause budget problems, and welcomed the prospect. In fact, Mr. Bush celebrated the budget's initial slide into deficit. In the summer of 2001 he called plunging federal revenue "incredibly positive news" because it would "put a straitjacket" on federal spending.

To keep that straitjacket on, however, those who sold tax cuts with the assurance that they were easily affordable must convince the public that the cuts can't be reversed now that those assurances have proved false. And Mr. Greenspan has once again tried to come to the president's aid, insisting this week that we should deal with deficits "primarily, if not wholly," by slashing Social Security and Medicare because tax increases would "pose significant risks to economic growth." Really? America prospered for half a century under a level of federal taxes higher than the one we face today. According to the administration's own estimates, Mr. Bush's second term will see the lowest tax take as a percentage of G.D.P. since the Truman administration. And don't forget that President Clinton's 1993 tax increase ushered in an economic boom. Why, exactly, are tax increases out of the question?

I'll tell you why Paul. Cuz Greenie is a Right Wing Hack. That's why.

[UpInArms]

117. here's what those tax cuts look like

[54anickel]

120. Nixon, Raygun and Dubya - go figure...n/t

[54anickel]

61. Fed's Fisher Says U.S. Economy Can Cope With Housing Slowdown

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aZXRfaYlxjrs&refer=us

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the U.S. economy can cope with any slowdown in the country's housing market.

``It is not unreasonable to think the situation is manageable, albeit worth watching closely,'' said Fisher in the text of a speech delivered in London today.

snip>

``I would not be surprised if GDP were revised upward when we take a more definitive look at the fourth quarter,'' according to the text of Fisher's speech. U.S. growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2005 from 4.2 percent in the previous year, he said.

snip>

Fisher also said ``most economic forecasters'' expect first quarter economic growth to ``rebound to a rate well above 4 percent.''

Well, we agree on one thing. I won't be surprised if the numbers are fudged upward either :grr:

[54anickel]

89. NATIONAL FORECLOSURES INCREASE IN EVERY QUARTER OF 2005

http://www.realtytrac.com/news/press/pressRelease.asp?PressReleaseID=86

Irvine, Calif. – January 23, 2006 – RealtyTrac™ (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released year-end data from its 2005 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which showed that 846,982 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure in 2005, and a 25 percent increase in the number of new foreclosures from the first quarter to the fourth quarter.

RealtyTrac publishes the largest national database of pre-foreclosure and foreclosure properties, with more than 550,000 properties in nearly 2,000 counties across the country, and is the foreclosure data provider to MSN House & Home, Yahoo! Real Estate, AOL Real Estate and HomeGain.com.

“Overall U.S. foreclosure numbers climbed steadily over the course of the year, with more new foreclosures reported in every quarter,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “This trend appears to be moving the real estate foreclosure market back to its historic levels.”

Saccacio noted that the number of 2005 foreclosures needed to be kept in context. “Even with almost 850,000 properties entering some stage of foreclosure across the country over the course of the year, this represents less than 1 percent of all U.S. households. And the increase in U.S. foreclosures from Q3 to Q4 was just below 5 percent.”

more...

[UpInArms]

14. Gold gains on Iran concerns

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B05372961%2D4EDE%2D4E75%2D8FA5%2D46B1517925A9%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rose early Monday on safe-haven buying following the International Atomic Energy Agency's decision to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council on concerns about its nuclear program.

Gold for April delivery was last trading up $2.40 at $574 an ounce. On Friday, the contract lost $5 an ounce as investors locked in some of the week's gains - gold had climbed to as high as $579.50 an ounce in the prior session, a level not seen since January 1981.

The IAEA voted to refer the Tehran government to the U.N. Security Council over the weekend, citing an "absence of confidence" that Iran's recently-resumed nuclear program is aimed at strictly peaceful, civilian energy generation.

<snip>

"Chinese markets reopened today after a week long break for the Lunar New Year, which could bring some fresh physical demand to the market too," they said.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

17. Metals in demand as Asia returns to buy

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Leading base metals were bouyant on Monday as Asian traders returned after a week-long holiday for Chinese New Year, maintaining the investment-led commodity market boom and keeping prices near record highs.

Shanghai copper and aluminium futures jumped by their daily limits to new record highs.

"Over the Lunar New Year period the LME (copper) rose above $5,000, so from the Chinese point of view they had to close the gap and so Shanghai copper rose," said Wang Zheng, a metals analyst at Shanghai Dalu Futures.

Last week an influx of fresh investment fund money at the start of a fresh month swirled through the London Metal Exchange, the world's largest non-ferrous metals market.

"Overall the trend and momentum in most of the metals is up, so until something changes sentiment or until the sellers emerge in force, the path of least resistance is up, even if a vacuum is developing in its wake," analyst William Adams of BaseMetals.Com said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. April Gold @ $573.70 oz

9:43am 02/06/06 APRIL GOLD CLIMBS $2.10 TO $573.70/OZ IN MORNING TRADING

[UpInArms]

67. April Gold @ $577 oz - March Silver @ $9.85 oz - March Copper @ $2.319 lb

11:00am 02/06/06 APRIL GOLD TRADES NEAR SESSION'S HIGH, UP $5.40 AT $577/OZ

11:00am 02/06/06 MARCH SILVER CLIMBS 9C, OR 0.9%, TO $9.85/OZ

11:00am 02/06/06 MARCH COPPER UP 1.1C AT $2.319/LB AFTER RECORD $2.325

[UpInArms]

77. Gold futures climb to $578 in New York

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38754.4809026852-859522662&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- April gold tapped $578 an ounce in New York and was last up $4.50 at $576.10. "Gold continues to perform very well, despite calls from industry analysts that a correction is due at these levels," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com. "In fact, gold does not appear to want to correct just yet and is looking to run to $600." March copper climbed as well, trading at a record $2.325 a pound, with prices last up a penny at $2.318.

[54anickel]

85. China's first gold fund may be created

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/art/2006/02/07/240729/China__039_s_first_gold_fund_may_be_created.htm

THE China Gold Association is considering forming the country's first gold fund with partners.

"Some association members have discussed the program to start a gold fund to tap China's gold market," Hou Huimin, vice chairman of the Beijing-based association, said via telephone yesterday. "It's still only a proposal at this stage and we have not yet contacted banks or gold companies about further moves."

The fund will exceed 1 billion yuan (US$124 million) if it is raised, he said, dismissing a previous media report that the fund would be between 500 million and 1 billion yuan.

He declined to provide a timetable or other details.

Gold's investment allure is strong as the central government has opened the individual gold investment sector with more products.

more...

[UpInArms]

90. April Gold closes @ $574.30 oz

1:54pm 02/06/06 APRIL GOLD CLOSES AT $574.30/OZ, UP $2.70, OR 0.5%

[EuroObserver]

15. Soaring Energy Prices Will Fuel Oil & Gas M&A

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Oil and gas merger and acquisition activity in Asia should rise sharply this year as Asian energy companies continue to compete aggressively for additional reserves, says the head of energy investment banking at JP Morgan & Chase (JPM) in Hong Kong.

"With US$60 to US$70 oil prices, M&A transaction values will continue to be large and given the substantial cash reserves and strong share performance of Asian companies, they will not be deterred from competing against their U.S. and European counterparts for international assets," said Ivor Orchard, head of energy investment banking at JP Morgan in Hong Kong.
...

He said that buyers are willing to pay higher prices because of the need to replace reserves and meet production growth targets, as well as the ability to use a very liquid oil futures market to hedge against falling prices.
...

China's and India's hunger for energy resources to fuel their fast-growing economies is an obvious driver behind this, but it is too simplistic to see the increasing level of activity just in these terms, said Orchard. "In both countries, individual companies have grown to the point where they are now looking to compete on the world stage. By virtue of strong financial performance, and share market support, they have the capital to do so," said Orchard.

...more...

[4dsc]

28. Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate-

The shit is going to hit the fan soon people and all these markets will crash as result!!

http://energybulletin.net/12242.html

Buy gold?? Cannot eat gold, that's for sure!!

[54anickel]

109. Over estimating reserves has been a common practice for years.

It goes back to when OPEC started setting quotas based on reserves.

Can't find the article I was thinking of, but this link from last month addresses the issue quite well.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/20/194930/758

snip>

This is not really surprising. When OPEC started basing quotas on a percentage of oil reserves, many OPEC nations suddenly announced big increases in their reserves (which allowed them to sell more oil). While some analysts were skeptical, many accepted the new numbers. It had been customary for the Western companies who first explored the Middle East to understate their discoveries, so it was possible that OPEC countries were merely updating those old, extremely conservative estimates.

It looks like that's not the case, at least for Kuwait. And, in all likelihood, not for the other countries of the Middle East, either.

Though the state of Iraq's oil reserves are still classified, the word going around is that, rather than the 112 billion barrels estimated before the war, they actually have only 46 billion barrels.

And what about the mother of them all, Saudi Arabia? Matthew Simmons has warned for several years now that they don't have as much oil as they claim. In fact, he argues in an article in today's Independent that Saudi Arabia peaked at the end of 2004.

Oil is back up near its record high again, on everything from weather to civil unrest. Of course, that's always been part of the oil industry. But something is different now. Now, the market is getting more and more worried about the future. Prices are hitting record highs as far in the future as 2012.

[UpInArms]

18. Deficits to Grow as War and Corruption Grows in Dimson's Budget

Bush seeks domestic-spending cuts in 2007 budget

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush will propose shrinking an array of domestic programs and cut billions from the Medicare health program when he sends Congress a $2.7 trillion budget on Monday.

Bush's fiscal 2007 budget comes during a congressional election year as he faces concern and frustration among some of his Republican allies over surging deficits.

With the shortfall this year expected to top $400 billion, Bush has vowed to find $14 billion in savings by trimming or scrapping 141 programs.

<snip>

Bush inherited surpluses from Democratic President Bill Clinton but that quickly turned around and the deficit soared on his watch, reaching a record $413 billion in fiscal 2004.

It slipped to $319 billion in 2005, but the costs of the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina will contribute to a renewed rise. In a preliminary estimate in January, the White House said the budget deficit could top $400 billion in fiscal 2006.

Bush is expected to renew his call to make his tax cuts permanent and will again promise to halve the deficit by 2009.

Chris Edwards, an economist at the libertarian Cato Institute, said his calculations show a 43 percent rise in government spending during Bush's presidency.

"I don't think Bush came to Washington to cut spending," Edwards said, adding that one way Bush the president could show he was serious about taming deficits would be to veto some spending bills -- something he has never done.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. Tricks with numbers - deception in progress with $2.7 TRILLION Budget

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38754.4171392014-859517003&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush on Monday sent Congress a $2.77 trillion budget request for fiscal 2007 that asks for more money for defense, less spending in a number of other areas, and the permanent extension of his first-term tax cuts. The White House said it expects the federal deficit to rise to $423 billion, or 3.2% of gross domestic product, in fiscal 2006, which ends on Sept. 30. That's an increase from a deficit of $318 billion, or 2.6% of GDP, last year, but the administration forecasts the gap will fall to $208 billion by fiscal 2009. That would be equivalent to 1.4% of GDP, the White House said, leaving Bush on track to meet his goal of cutting the deficit to less than 2.25% of GDP by that date.

10:00am 02/06/06 BUSH PROPOSES $2.77 TRILLION FISCAL 2007 BUDGET

10:00am 02/06/06 WHITE HOUSE SEES $423 BLN. DEFICIT IN FISCAL 2006

10:00am 02/06/06 WHITE HOUSE SEES DEFICIT DECLINING TO $354 BILLION IN '07

10:00am 02/06/06 BUSH CALLS FOR SLASHING 141 PROGRAMS TO SAVE $15B IN '07

10:00am 02/06/06 BUSH SEEKS $65B IN MANDATORY SPENDING SAVINGS OVER 5 YEARS

10:00am 02/06/06 WHITE HOUSE SEES DEFICIT FALLING TO $208B IN FISCAL 2009

It's all that "off budget" war spending that will destroy the illusion - but the curtain call is still going on.


The estimated population of the United States is 298,452,430
so each citizen's share of this debt is $27,505.28.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$2.14 billion per day since September 30, 2005

[UpInArms]

53. Dimson's fuzzy math exposed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T151042Z_01_N06400172_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-BUDGET-RELEASE-UPDATE-1.XML

Bush proposed a record $439.3 billion defense budget for 2007 aimed at fighting unconventional terrorism and any major international conflict. But this total does not include an extra $50 billion the administration will seek in added funds for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in fiscal 2007.

The administration is also seeking another $70 billion for the current fiscal 2006 for the two wars.

At the same time, Bush renewed his call for making his tax cuts permanent even as his blueprint projected a surge in the budget deficit to $423 billion this year, up more than $100 billion from fiscal 2005.

[UpInArms]

64. Dimson's previous lies are being examined

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B139F9F07%2D3017%2D4A4D%2D83E5%2DDA57E57ACBFE%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

But budget watchers warned that the administration has a less-than-stellar track record when it comes to its deficit projections.

The Concord Coalition, a bipartisan group that advocates a balanced federal budget, warned that previous administration budget forecasts have assumed similar improvements in the deficit outlook that have failed to materialize.

The White House's 2004 budget, for example, projected a $307 billion shortfall that year declining to around $201 billion in fiscal 2006. Instead, the administration forecasts that red in 2006 will be more than twice that amount.

The administration's five-year forecast assume that Congress will extend Bush's first-term tax cuts, which are due to expire in coming years.

Federal tax receipts declined for three consecutive years at the beginning of the Bush administration, bottoming out at $1.783 trillion in fiscal 2003, or 16.5% of GDP, and marking the first time receipts fell three years in a row since the 1920s.

Receipts have bounced back strongly in the last two years amid strong economic growth, edging back up to around 17.5% of GDP in fiscal 2005. The administration forecasts receipts will increase 5.9% annually through 2011.

Bush attempted in last year's budget to eliminate or sharply curtail around 154 programs in an effort to eliminate $15.8 billion in spending. In the end, Congress agreed to less than half of the proposed cuts.

What's more, the federal budget is set to explode in coming decades as the Baby Boom generation retires, fueling a sharp rise in what is known as entitlement spending, including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

[UpInArms]

74. Lies exposed regarding defense and Pentagon spending

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T161355Z_01_N06395806_RTRIDST_0_MZ-BUSH-BUDGET-DEFENSE.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday proposed a record $439.3 billion U.S. defense budget for 2007 aimed at fighting both unconventional terrorism and major conflicts with other nations if necessary.

The Pentagon budget represented a 4.8 percent boost over current military spending as Bush seeks cuts in domestic programs. The budget does not include tens of billions of dollars in proposed new financing for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Analysts said the U.S. Congress, under political pressure in an election year, is unlikely to cut Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's budget, which is 16 percent of the administration's $2.77 trillion federal budget.

<snip>

The proposed Pentagon budget is only a part of the national defense picture and does not include $120 billion in planned new U.S. funding for military and other operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. That money is included in separate legislation.

The White House said last week that it would immediately ask Congress for about $70 billion in new emergency funds for the two wars and seek an additional $50 billion in fiscal 2007.

The planned separate requests would come on top of the $320 billion the White House budget office said has been allocated for the wars so far, pushing costs since the start of the conflicts through early next year to about $440 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

99. Comedic Relief(?): Rumsfailed become "economist"

Rumsfeld: Pentagon budget is still small percentage of GDP

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Monday that next year's budget Pentagon request at $439 billion, while the biggest discretionary piece of the U.S. budget for 2007, is historically a smaller percentage of U.S. gross domestic product at 3.7% to 3.8% than it has been in the past. "It is a relatively modest portion of every dollar but it is something that does underpin the freedom, the opportunity and the prosperity that exist for the American people," Rumsfeld said during a Webcast budget briefing on Monday.

[54anickel]

121. Don Rumsfeld Flips Off the Public's Right to Know About His $440 Billion B

http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20060206/cm_huffpost/015185;_ylt=A86.I17mnudDSTgB8wn9wxIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBjMHVqMTQ4BHNlYwN5bnN1YmNhdA--

Like it or not, the American media -- including blogger journalists -- are out there in part to keep government in check. What is evolving today, however, is more Rumsfeldian disdain for the press and for the right of Americans to look over his shoulder.

As one source has reported to me this morning:

Pentagon, which in years past has handed out its detailed budget documents on Saturday or Friday, with an embargo till Monday morning, is now not giving us the documents until AFTER Rumsfeld briefs us.

The consequence:


(W)e will sit through his press conference without any detailed questions, and be rushing through the 300 or 400 pages of numbers after to try to file by deadlines. Moreover, it has put out a press release that is embargoed till 2 pm, guaranteeing that they and they alone control the info that goes out in the first budget stories -- the stories will be limited to only what they have decided to reveal information about.

What is fascinating about the empire that Don Rumsfeld is running is that the WHITE HOUSE has already publicly released its budget.

According to sources, the Pentagon promised release of the documents at 8 a.m., then 10 a.m,, then 10:30 a.m.

more...

Don't want them to be able to formulate any questions or anyhting like that

[54anickel]

97. Bush's $2.77 Tln Budget Boosts Defense, Cuts Medicare (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=awZoisx7pmPE&refer=us

snip>

The Defense Department budget for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1 would increase 6.9 percent over the current year, to $439.3 billion. That figure doesn't include an extra $120 billion the president wants for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan this year and next.

The 2007 spending blueprint, up 2.3 percent over this year and the biggest in U.S. history, projects the economy will grow 3.3 percent in 2007, compared with 3.4 percent forecast for this year. After hitting a new high in 2006, the administration expects the deficit will fall to $354 billion in 2007.

``America's economy is growing at a healthy pace,'' Bush says in a message to Congress accompanying the document.

Bush may face a challenge pushing the budget through Congress because it would force lawmakers, who are up for election in November, to make cuts in government programs even as overall spending grows. For example, funding for departments such as Commerce, Education and the Interior won't keep up with inflation or would be pared. Bush also asks Congress to end 141 federal programs for a savings of almost $15 billion.

Political Document

``Budgets are political documents, and this budget will likely have the goal of trying to show a declining deficit without endangering anyone's re-election prospects,'' said Brian Riedl, a budget analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based group that favors limited government and has criticized Bush's spending record.

James Miller, budget director under President Ronald Reagan, predicted that with an election year for Congress most of the spending cuts ``will not come to pass.''

snip>

The figure for the 2006 deficit is ``a shocking number'' that was higher than Wall Street estimates, said Chris Rupkey, senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. ``Hopefully the economy will prove stronger and the number of new taxpaying jobholders will be greater than the President's number crunchers are assuming because the government is unable to control its spending.''

more...

[UpInArms]

100. The farmers take a whacking, too - wonder if they'll rethink their votes?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T191343Z_01_N06243168_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-BUDGET-FACTBOX.XML

* Bush proposed a strict $250,000 a year limit on crop subsidies per farmer and a 5 percent across-the-board cut in crop and dairy payments. Both ideas were rejected by Congress last year.

[AnneD]

102. I only have one question...

after they bankrupt us in this war on terra....what is going to be left to defend?

[UpInArms]

104. weren't they called antebellum homes prior to the emancipation? eom

[AnneD]

107. LOL LOL LOL

I think you mean the emaciation. Maybe that is why they keep throwing around the phrase plantation like they have lately. After the war, you couldn't tell wiped out rich from poor.

[UpInArms]

84. Bush's Tyranny for a Bankrupt Nation

http://mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=508488

President Bush has consistently defended his massive $500 billion tax cuts. He has insisted that deficit spending be a “permanent” part of the national budget. His economic plan has eroded the confidence of central banks around the world and increased the federal debt by a whopping $3 trillion. Still, he persists in his claim that deficits should be an enduring function of government.

Doesn’t this confirm that bankrupting the country is an integral part of the Bush grand strategy?

<snip>

Deficits are theft; and the determination to make these lavish tax cuts for the wealthy permanent proves beyond a doubt that it is part of a larger strategy to bring about an economic meltdown that will change the political complexion of the country.

<snip>

Dick Cheney recently opined, “Reagan proved that deficits don’t mean anything.”

Liar.

In fact, Cheney was part of the Reagan administration when Reagan’s tax cuts created monstrous $200 billion deficits, up 75% from 1980. The effects were devastating. Unemployment jumped to 10%, the 30 year mortgage skyrocketed to 15%, the economy ground to a standstill, and the nation plunged into the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Cheney fully understands the suffering that deficits produce. Now, he wants to continue that misery as a permanent function of government.

...more...

[54anickel]

92. GACK!!! Last 2 paragraphs - again

The Bush administration is preparing for a quick but agonizing transition. They have painstakingly removed whatever laws stood in the way of autocratic government. The courts will brandish the rubber stamp for the supreme executive, the congress will languish as a ceremonial institution, and the compliant media will shower praise on the Dear Leader’s iron-fisted methods of keeping the peace.

Economic disintegration is the catalyst for changing the fundamental institutions of government. The globalists in the White House have played a major role in numerous coups across the planet, all producing the same basic result; a military dictatorship with a strongman at the head of state. America is being readied for a similar transformation.

[AnneD]

105. But these 'strong men' and their

military dictatorships tend to meet a very ugly and violent fate. They might want to think twice before trying that. This country had the highest number of guns floating areound. It was written in the Bill of Rights for reason.

[UpInArms]

86. Bush budget has no money to buy emergency SPR oil

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T181440Z_01_WBT004729_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-BUDGET-OIL-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Congress is requiring the Bush administration to add almost 300 million barrels to the U.S. emergency oil stockpile, but the White House on Monday did not seek money to buy the crude in its proposed budget for the 2007 spending year sent to Congress.

In sweeping energy legislation signed into law last year, Congress required the administration to boost capacity of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 1 billion barrels from its current 727 million barrels.

The stockpile was created by Congress in 1975 after the Arab oil embargo. It currently holds about 684 million barrels of crude in underground caverns at four sites in Texas and Louisiana.

[54anickel]

93. Maybe he figures we ain't gonna be needing it once the police-state

is instituted and the majority of us are locked away in some prison - for the good and security of our great nation. :tinfoilhat:

[EuroObserver]

103. These shows war or other "national security" readiness state

currently 684 million barrels + almost 300 million barrels = U.S. emergency oil stockpile about full.

[UpInArms]

19. Citigroup ups oil price forecasts through 2009

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38754.3395821528-859511340&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup upped its oil price forecasts from 2006 to 2009 on a combination of geopolitical issues and limited spare capacity. For 2006, Citi is upping its Brent oil price forecast to $57.50 a barrel from $48.50 a barrel, saying the geopolitical factors that have driven prices to date aren't likely to dissipate soon. For 2007 to 2009, it's increasing its estimates as spare capacity will remain tight enough to keep oil prices at, or close to, current levels for longer than previously believed. Brent crude oil contracts were trading at $64.21 a barrel on Monday, with light sweet crude oil contracts trading at $66.16 a barrel.

[UpInArms]

48. March Crude @ $65.95 bbl - March NatGas @ $8.32 mln btus

10:03am 02/06/06 MARCH CRUDE RISES 58C TO $65.95/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADING

10:03am 02/06/06 MARCH NATURAL GAS DROPS 29.3C, OR 3.4%, TO $8.32/MLN BTUS

It appears that Citigrope is operating with its head up its arse.

[UpInArms]

69. Gas prices to soar (to $3 gal) again, analysts say

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/business/13796975.htm

Question | What is the outlook for gasoline prices this year?

Answer | Unless something dramatic happens soon to lower oil prices - say, a sharp economic slowdown - analysts believe U.S. motorists could pay close to $3 a gallon for gasoline by the time summer rolls around.

Of course, any $3-a-gallon scenario is predicated on simultaneous supply chain problems, an outcome analysts fear but executives say is unlikely. But concerns about everything from hurricanes to new clean-fuel specifications are, at the very least, going to keep the market on edge and retail prices elevated.

Also keep in mind that demand remains strong. Over the past four weeks, average daily gasoline consumption in the U.S. was 1 percent higher than a year ago at 9.1 million barrels. Average prices, now $2.32 a gallon, are 27 percent higher than last year.

Motor fuels expert Tom Kloza of Wall, N.J.-based Oil Price Information Service said retail gasoline prices could rise by 50 cents over the first six months of the year and by six months of the year and by an additional 25 cents if demand stays strong and any significant supply interruptions occur.

"I don't think the market's going to be short gasoline, or that we won't be able to find the stuff," Kloza said, "But we will pay a pretty penny for it."

<snip>

Instead, the producers are under pressure from shareholders to hold out for potentially higher prices tomorrow.

This "21st-century Texas hold 'em," as Kloza calls it, reduces the number of sellers in the market and thereby further increases the upward pressure on prices.

...more...

Someone needs to find those "shareholders" and do a bit of that "legal" waterboarding.

[UpInArms]

79. March Crude @ $66.10 bbl - March NatGas @ $8.23 mln btus

11:57am 02/06/06 MARCH CRUDE UP 73C AT $66.10/BRL AFTER $66.25 HIGH

11:57am 02/06/06 MARCH NATURAL GAS FALLS 4.5% TO $8.23/MLN BTUS

11:57am 02/06/06 MARCH HEATING OIL UP 1.2%; MARCH UNLEADED GAS RISES 0.3%

[UpInArms]

111. March Crude closes @ $65.11 bbl - March NatGas @ $7.995 mln btus

3:00pm 02/06/06 MARCH CRUDE ENDS DOWN 26C AT $65.11/BRL AFTER $66.25 HIGH

3:00pm 02/06/06 MARCH NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT AN 8-MONTH LOW

3:00pm 02/06/06 MARCH NATURAL GAS FINISHES AT $7.995/MLN BTUS, DOWN 7.2%

[UpInArms]

21. Toshiba agrees to buy Westinghouse for $5.4 bln

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-06T131556Z_01_T212900_RTRIDST_0_ENERGY-WESTINGHOUSE-TOSHIBA-UPDATE-4.XML

LONDON/TOKYO, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Japan's Toshiba Corp. <6502.T> has agreed to buy Westinghouse, the U.S. power plant arm of British Nuclear Fuels, for $5.4 billion to bolster its position in the world's resurgent nuclear power industry.

Japan's second-biggest electronics maker said on Monday it expected several minority investors to join the deal but that it would retain a controlling stake of over 51 percent.

The takeover, which values Westinghouse at almost three times initial expectations, is expected to be completed in around six months.

Toshiba plans to fund it from cash flow, although Chief Executive and President Atsutoshi Nishida told reporters in London that it might also look to borrow funds.

<snip>

Westinghouse builds and runs nuclear power plants worldwide and is a leader in the Chinese nuclear power market.

Nuclear power was out of favour after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and has been dogged by concerns about the financial and environmental costs of dealing with radioactive waste. But it has recently returned to the fore.

Concern over the security of power supplies and growing demand worldwide for energy have fuelled a surge in crude oil prices, prompting fuel-hungry countries such as China to expand investment in other energy sources including nuclear power.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Humana earnings rise on expanded Medicare plans

Mission Accomplished!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={3116036B-9885-46BD-9383-368BAE94EB77}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Humana Inc. on Monday posted a 37% rise in fourth-quarter net income, helped by Medicare expansion.

The Louisville, Ky., health insurance provider reported that net rose to $64.6 million, or 39 cents a share, from $47.1 million, or 29 cents, in the year-earlier period.

Revenue rose 14% to $3.66 billion on a significant increase in Medicare business. Humana calls the Medicare expansion a "multiyear growth opportunity."

<snip>

Humana's Medicare Advantage membership rose to 557,800 at Dec. 31, up 48% from a year ago and up 11% from the end of September.

The company said that its expanded participation in various Medicare programs and markets during the quarter combined with increased marketing efforts led to the higher membership level.

Humana still expects Medicare Advantage geographic expansions to contribute to organic enrollment growth, mainly in the first six months of 2006. It estimated Medicare Advantage membership to range 900,000 to 1.1 million by the end of fiscal 2006.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Writing the Book on Abramoff

Abramoff's grand aims came early

''Our job," Abramoff wrote, ''is to remove liberals ''from power permanently -- (from) student newspaper and radio stations, student governments, and academia.

''We are replacing these leftists with committed conservatives."

<snip>

More than two decades later, in early January, Abramoff became a symbol of Washington corruption when he pleaded guilty to a range of crimes committed as a lobbyist. The scandal, which has touched off a legislative scramble for reform, could also snare members of Congress.

<snip>

While the College Republicans had been a one-time homeground for strategists such as Lee Atwater and Karl Rove, the organization by 1980 suffered from sagging membership and political clout.

<snip>

Under Abramoff, the College Republicans office quickly became a nesting ground for hard-right believers. The new team, allies recalled, berated Republican moderates as ''Bushyites" -- a reference to the vice president -- and ''squishes" who were too eager to cut deals with Democrats on Capitol Hill, or with the Russians at superpower summits.

After purging the moderates in the College Republican hierarchy, Abramoff and his team launched a series of events to build public support for Reagan's foreign policy. The first was its ''Poland Will Be Free" campaign to support the democracy movement then under siege by the Polish communist government.

This is a really information article - :thumbsup::thumbsup:

[UpInArms]

27. New speaker says sponsored trips still OK

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0602060182feb06,1,7103111.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Rep. John Boehner, the new House majority leader, said Sunday that politicians should not automatically stop taking trips paid for by special-interest groups.

The Ohio Republican, elected Thursday to replace Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas), vigorously defended ties to lobbyists as essential for any member of Congress trying to understand national and world issues.

He said that, as long as trips are approved by the House ethics committee read: Republican-led and corrupt as hell, representatives should be allowed to accept travel sponsored by outside groups. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) has proposed a ban on privately funded trips.

...more...

[fasttense]

30. Well now that the repukes have pretended to address their culture of

corruption, it is back to business as usual. Who wants to buy a congressman? Do I hear 50.......

[UpInArms]

32. I want them all to wear patches similar to those worn at NASCAR events

to show which corporations are sponsoring their "bills" (or rather "our bills" - as we will foot the cost).

The dishonesty in government is astounding.

[AnneD]

66. WOW...

what a great idea. But don't stop there. The SC justices robes have plenty of room to display logos. And what about those margins around the Constitution and DOI. Millions see those every year. And the monuments. The Washington Monument could be renamed Viagra Washington Monument. Since the Jefferson Monument 'looks' feminine (that breast looking dome at the top)- it can be used to advertise augmentation or implants by a pharmaceutical companies. The White House could be sponsored by Glidden or a hotel chain. Ah, my mind is filled with raging rivulets of creative thoughts....

[54anickel]

119. Bet Reid wishes he could take his apology back - I certainly do, then

again I was pissed at him for doing it in the first place.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/19/AR2006011903106.html

snip>

Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) apologized to 33 Republican senators yesterday for a hard-hitting news release that accused them of ethical and legislative lapses, in an awkward about-face that tripped up Democrats' effort to keep the GOP majority on the defensive over alleged corruption.

"I am writing to apologize for the tone of this document and the decision to single out individual senators for criticism in it," Reid said of the 27-page statement sent by his communications office Tuesday. The release, titled, "Republicans cannot be trusted to end the culture of corruption," triggered sharp complaints from GOP officials, who said it violated Senate decorum and brought campaign-style mudslinging into the Capitol.

Reid, who headed a Democratic Party event Wednesday at the Library of Congress calling for clean government, basically agreed. The document, he wrote, "went too far, and I want to convey to you my personal regrets. . . . No one cares more about the Senate and its tradition of collegiality than I do."

Spokesman Jim Manley said Reid did not see the document before it was e-mailed to hundreds of journalists and others, but Reid did not say that in his one-page letter. The document began by stating, "Reid released the following report and statement on Republicans' abuse of power: 'The idea of Republicans reforming themselves is like asking John Gotti to clean up organized crime.' "

As partisan attacks go, the statement was hardly the most scathing seen on Capitol Hill lately. A freshman GOP House member nearly incited a brawl last year when she suggested, in a floor speech, that a Democratic veteran of the Marine Corps and the Vietnam War was a "coward." In July 2003, a Republican committee chairman in the House tried to get the Capitol Police to evict lounging Democratic lawmakers from a meeting room, then tearfully apologized to the full House. As in those earlier episodes, Reid's charges caused more discomfort for the accuser than the accused.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. 'Reform' May Still Depend On Abramoff

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/05/AR2006020500862_pf.html

Lobbying legislation will proceed one of two ways this year: a bidding war or a slow walk.

If disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff drops the dime on a bunch of lawmakers and several of them are indicted, Congress won't be able to say no to even the harshest anti-lobbying measures. That would produce a bidding war to see which political party and which chamber of Congress could get tougher on lobbyists.

But if Abramoff dawdles and not much happens, lawmakers will take their sweet time moving legislation through committee. The longer the process takes, the weaker the legislation will be. Recent bold calls for "reform" by party leaders would then be slow-walked into not much change at all.

Nobody knows which way things will go (though the betting leans toward the latter).

Already, the new House majority leader, John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), has proposed backing off such strict sanctions as bans on privately paid meals and travel, substituting extra disclosure instead.

<snip>

Certainly fundraising hasn't fallen off. Lobbyists are receiving their usual boatload of invitations to donate money to lawmakers. Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) is seeking $500 per individual and $1,000 per PAC at a lobbyist-hosted fundraiser in March that will feature "Laser Shot shooting" (simulated hunting and shooting with laser-equipped weapons) and "friends, food and fun." Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) scheduled his Annual Thad Cochran Golf Tournament for April at the Old Waverly Golf Club in West Point, Miss. The list goes on and on.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. Fund industry political contributions up -- report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38754.4094941551-859516403&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The $8.9 trillion U.S. mutual-fund industry has been spreading cash around Capitol Hill, InvestmentNews reported Monday. Employees at the 10-biggest U.S. fund firms made $1.3 million in political contributions in the 2004 presidential-election-year cycle, up almost 240% from $391,938 in contributions by workers from the same firms in the 2000 cycle, InvestmentNews said, citing federal records. The jump in contributions comes as Congress is wrestling with many proposals involving the fund industry. Thus far in the 2006 election cycle, which includes 2005 and 2006, contributions by top-10 fund company workers total $257,297, InvestmentNews said, citing opensecrets.com, which tracks campaign spending. Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., is the biggest congressional recipient of that cash, InvestmentNews said, citing the website. Sununu received $14,500 in contributions, all of it from employees of Boston-based Fidelity.

[54anickel]

70. Bwahahaha - last 2 paragraphs. W and Jack could have been best

of friends, they certainly have the same mindset.

Erickson defended Abramoff, saying he was promoting the cause of Reagan conservatism, not getting rich. ''Jack governed by sheer force of will," Erickson said. ''Things happened because Jack willed them to happen."

His detractors at the RNC took a different view. Greener said: ''I have found in life that individuals who believe what they are doing is so right and so good and so important are also the individuals that have a high-frequency level of rationalizing away unacceptable behavior."

[UpInArms]

25. The Cost of Corruption: State, valley still paying tab for Enron debacle

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/13791417.htm

After Enron energy traders manipulated electricity markets during the power crisis, a couple of them infamously joked about bilking ``Grandma Millie'' in California.

Years later, she's still paying. As two top Enron executives face fraud, conspiracy and other charges in a Houston federal court this week, California still grapples with the fallout from Enron's games.

Electric bills remain high, and Silicon Valley leaders say the strict accounting rules Congress enacted after the Enron scandal have made it far more expensive to do business or take young companies public. Some in Silicon Valley contend these rules have stifled innovation and discouraged investment from venture capitalists.

In Enron's wake, power plant operators such as San Jose-based Calpine had a hard time selling electricity profitably and attracting Wall Street investments.

Pacific Gas & Electric customers face record electricity costs as they pay off the leftover debt from the 2000-2001 energy crisis.

<snip>

``The total information base of our society is based on electricity,'' said Kevin Starr, a University of Southern California professor and the California state librarian emeritus. ``You couldn't be a more hostile government and cause California more problems than Enron caused us. . . . It was, in effect, an act of war on California in corporate terms.''

In memos and recordings that were ultimately released to the public, Enron traders gleefully described their plans to exploit California's fledgling deregulated electricity market. Enron was the much-ballyhooed company blending an industrial-era product with new-world technology, trading electricity in online markets.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. Calpine Calif. Sutter power plant shut

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T152738Z_01_N06410965_RTRIDST_0_UTILITIES-CALPINE-SUTTER.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Calpine Corp.'s (CPNLQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) 530-megawatt Sutter natural gas-fired power plant in California shut for unplanned reasons, the California Independent Electricity Operator said in a report Sunday afternoon.

The unit was available for service on Friday.

The Sutter station is located near Yuba City in Sutter County, about 40 miles north of Sacramento. The Sutter station is a combined-cycle station with two combustion turbines (175 MW) and one steam turbine (180 MW).

...more...

[54anickel]

65. "Half the world's nations are corrupt". Weird timing on this report.

http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2006/02/03/corrupt-nations-world-cx_daa_0206caphosp.html

NEW YORK - Nearly half of the world's nations are corrupt, and many of them aren't doing very much about it at all.

From corrupt courts and police to government ministries, even heads of state, the most fundamental rights and government services are dispensed largely to those who pay for it--under the table into just the right hands.

By international standards, 72 of 158 nations monitored by Transparency International and a German-based think-tank at the University of Passau are deemed corrupt. They range from the tiny military dictatorship of Myanmar to some of the world's largest countries--Russia and Indonesia.

In some nations, the corruption is as basic as greasing the palms of the village police chief to let a bar stay open an hour past the regular closing time, or a telephone company clerk to expedite installation of a phone line. In other cases, corruption means millions in payoffs, often to secret foreign bank accounts, where development funds are siphoned that should have been used to expedite roads, schools, bridges or basic health and sanitary facilities designed to improve the lives of their people.

Some nations are making serious efforts to clean up their image, by eradicating a long heritage of corruption, and with some effect. As soon as the tsunami swept away vast swatches of rural Indonesia, the fear was that billions in financial aid for the stricken communities would equally be swept into the pockets of historically corrupt officials. Not so.

more...

[AnneD]

75. What?

India didn't make the list....I demand a recount. Only place I have yet been in where I was shaken down at the airport when leaving. I acted stupid, she (the inspector) finally gave up. I am looking for luggage with a hidden compartment (or some container). The minute they see anything of value, they shake you down. What a drain, and bad for the image.

[UpInArms]

80. The doltish dozen (or "Searching for the Stupid")

Kenneth Lay's attorneys argued that no unbiased jurors could be found in Houston. But a jury of one's peers hasn't always meant 12 news-averse know-nothings.

'I REMEMBER one of those sorrowful farces, in Virginia, which we call a jury trial," wrote Mark Twain in his 1871 travelogue ''Roughing It." A ''noted desperado" had brutally killed a man, and the local papers were full of the news. But everyone who had heard of the killing, much less discussed it, was kept off the jury for fear he might be biased. As a result, the jury comprised ''two desperadoes, two low beerhouse politicians, three barkeepers, two ranchmen who could not read, and three dull, stupid, human donkeys. It actually came out afterward that one of these latter thought that incest and arson were the same thing." The verdict was not guilty.

''The jury system," Twain concluded, ''puts a ban on intelligence and honesty, and a premium upon ignorance, stupidity, and perjury."

This past week, as the trial of former Enron chief executives Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling opened, the first skirmish was over the jury. Defense lawyers wanted the proceedings moved out of Houston, the collapsed energy giant's hometown, claiming that feelings there ran too high for an appropriately impartial jury to be found. Judge Simeon T. Lake III disagreed, and proceeded, to the wonderment of legal observers, to impanel his jury in a single day.

While news accounts have mentioned how well-educated the resulting jury is, less has been made-presumably because it is less notable-of how little the jurors had managed to learn about one of the biggest news events in the recent history of their city. One told the judge he didn't know anything about the case against the company, another confessed that she was generally unaware of current events. ''I'm a turtle person," she said.

<snip>

As Abramson puts it, the Founding Fathers believed that a trial by one's peers meant a trial by one's neighbors. ''They assumed local juries would know something about the reputation of the parties, know something about the facts, know something, for example, about the intersection where an accident occurred."

This knowledge wasn't considered prejudicial, but valuable. Until the mid-19th century juries possessed far more power than they do today-they decided matters of law as well as matters of fact and could flatly nullify laws they determined unjust. To many Constitutional delegates, the idea that the new federal government might possess the power to try someone outside his ''vicinage" (roughly, his neighborhood) was a form of tyranny.

Since then, this logic has been turned on its head. As Twain makes clear, the shift was already well on its way in the late 1800s. It was fed in part by urbanization, which dissolved old ideas of community, and in part by the growth of the mass media, which increased the range of pretrial publicity. For Abramson, though, the greatest factor was that the jury's symbolic value faded over time. Juries had been the Colonists' most direct form of self-rule, but after independence, the creation of a whole apparatus of democratic self-government lessened the jury's relative importance.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Giant Corps Control Your Information: Telecoms allowed government wiretaps

AT&T, MCI and Sprint acted without court orders, Executives say

The National Security Agency has secured the cooperation of large telecommunications companies, including AT&T, MCI and Sprint, in its efforts to eavesdrop without warrants on international calls by suspected terrorists, according to seven telecommunications executives.

The executives asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the program. AT&T, MCI and Sprint had no official comment.

The Senate Judiciary Committee begins hearings today on the government's program of monitoring international calls and e-mails of a domestic target without first obtaining court orders. At issue: whether the surveillance is legal, as President Bush insists, or an illegal intrusion into the lives of Americans, as lawsuits by civil libertarians contend.

Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., chairman of the committee, challenged the legality of the program Sunday, saying the White House case for tapping phones without a warrant is "very strained and unrealistic." He called on President Bush to submit details of the enhanced surveillance effort to a secret federal court created to lend judicial oversight to electronic surveillance involving international intelligence matters.

"The administration could take this entire program and lay it on the line to that court," Specter said on NBC's "Meet the Press." He said he would press the matter today, when Attorney General Alberto Gonzales goes before the committee to defend the program.

In domestic investigations, phone companies routinely require court orders before cooperating.

...more...

:argh:

[UpInArms]

35. Sprint gets U.S. antitrust nod for Nextel Partners

And the giants grow larger and more out of control.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T140428Z_01_N06399434_RTRIDST_0_TELECOMS-NEXTELPARTNERS-ANTITRUST.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - No. 3 U.S. wireless carrier Sprint Nextel Corp. (S.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has received antitrust clearance to acquire its biggest affiliate Nextel Partners Inc. (NXTP.O: Quote, Profile, Research), U.S. officials said on Monday.

U.S. antitrust authorities have closed their review of the $6.5 billion deal without taking any action to block the transaction, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission said in a notice.

Sprint Nextel was formed last year when Sprint Corp. bought Nextel Communications Inc. and owned about 32 percent of the Nextel Partners affiliate. That deal triggered an agreement in which the affiliate was able to force the new company to buy the remainder of the company.

[UpInArms]

56. Sprint Nextel Cooperating In Domestic Spying -Report

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/15963.php

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- AT&T, Verizon Communications' MCI and Sprint Nextel Corp. are among several large US telecommunications companies that agreed to cooperate with the National Security Agency's spying without warrants on international calls by suspected terrorists, USA Today reported Monday.

The newspaper said it based its account on seven telecommunications executives who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the program. AT&T, MCI and Sprint had no official comment, the newspaper reported.

<snip>

The New York Times, which disclosed the clandestine operation in December, previously reported that telecommunications companies have been cooperating with the government, but it didn't name the companies involved.

The USA Today report explained that NSA technicians work with phone company officials to intercept communications pegged to a particular person or phone number. Telecommunications executives say MCI, AT&T and Sprint grant the access to their systems on the basis of oral requests from senior government officials, rather than court orders or warrants.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

91. Nominee to Give F.C.C. Republican Majority (telecommuncations lobbyist)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/04/business/04fcc.html?ex=1139720400&en=2e178d84cc65a90e&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

WASHINGTON, Feb. 3 (AP) — President Bush has chosen a telecommunications lawyer and lobbyist, Robert M. McDowell, to take an open seat at the Federal Communications Commission, a move that would restore the agency's 3-to-2 Republican majority.

Mr. McDowell is a senior vice president and assistant general counsel at the Competitive Telecommunications Association, a trade organization representing phone carriers that compete with the regional Bell companies.

The Senate would have to confirm the nomination.

The appointment of Mr. McDowell will give the agency chairman, Kevin J. Martin, his first Republican majority on the commission since he was elevated to the post in March. Since then, the normally five-member commission has been evenly split 2-to-2, although it was briefly operating with only three members in December — when Mr. Martin was outnumbered by the two Democrats. The Democratic majority ended last month when Deborah Taylor Tate, a Republican, was sworn in.

The absence of a Republican majority proved troublesome for Mr. Martin last summer when the Republicans and Democrats on the panel could not agree on how to begin the process of considering media ownership rules. The issue was shelved minutes before it was to be discussed at a monthly F.C.C. meeting.

[UpInArms]

31. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. The indices are still set to start the day in subdued fashion. Today's economic calendar is a blank one, and the early earnings calendar does not offer any market-moving news. General Motors' (GM) Board meeting may garner some attention. There are widespread expectations that the company will slash its current $2 annual dividend in order to preserve cash, and there are also reports that it will sell a stake in GMAC mortgage to a private equity firm.

08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. The cash market is now headed for a flattish start. The price of crude, now $66.14 per barrel, remains in focus, but the market demonstrates some resilience because of the belief that the IAEA's vote to report Iran to the UN Security Council was not a surprise. Some activity on the M&A front also provides support. There are reports that Talbots (TLB) is near an approximate $450 million deal to buy J. Jill (JILL), and that Citadel Broadcasting (CDL) is close to a deal to acquire most of Disney's (DIS) radio assets.

07:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Versus fair value, futures trade indicates a lower start for the cash market. The rising price of crude, which is hovering over $66 per barrel (+1.2%), weighs upon sentiment. On Saturday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Iran to the UN Security Council on fears that the country is seeking to enrich uranium for the purpose of creating nuclear weapons. The decision, and Iran's assertion that it will not cooperate in allowing surprise inspections, has raised the market's anxiety that Iran may cut its oil supply.

[UpInArms]

36. 9:36 EST Casino's open - all is well (except those Bonds)

Dow 10,801.15 +7.53 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,264.12 +1.54 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,265.60 +1.57 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.551 +0.18 (+0.40%)

NYSE Volume 94,465,000
Nasdaq Volume 88,991,000

[UpInArms]

38. blather - cheerleaders dropping their pom-poms?

09:40 am : As expected, the market's major averages started the day near the unchanged mark. The continuing anxiety over Iran's nuclear ambitions has the market on edge and watching the price of crude (+$0.55 $65.92 per barrel). Investors also remain cautious following recent economic data that raises inflation fears. Because market risks have increased due to the possibility that the Fed will raise rates more than previously anticipated, and because earnings growth expectations are falling, we have today lowered our Market View to Neutral from Moderately Bullish. Today's calendar features no economic data or market-moving earnings reports. GM may receive some attention as its Board meeting occurs today; plans for the sale of GMAC and the company's dividend are expected to top the agenda.DJ30 +2.08 NASDAQ +0.80 SP500 +1.27

[UpInArms]

42. AIG may pay $1.5B to settle probes

Didn't Greenberg say that all of this would have "no impact"? :rofl:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B63837780%2DDB7A%2D4BD9%2DBB50%2D7516A3DEAC71%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American International Group Inc. is close to signing what could be the largest finance-industry regulatory settlement with a single company in U.S. history, involving a payment of at least $1.5 billion, to resolve accounting fraud and other allegations with federal and state authorities, according to a media report Sunday.

The expected deal with AIG (AIG) could be announced as early as this week, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition. See Wall Street Journal story (subscription required).

The agreement would settle announced as early as this week, would settle investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission, New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who brought charges against AIG in May, and the New York State Insurance Department, The Journal said, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

The payment would include disgorgement of allegedly ill-gotten gains and penalties, according to The Journal, which reported last month that that AIG had agreed to pay more than $1 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. Bush budget proposes new FHA mortgage products

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T150653Z_01_WAT004798_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-BUDGET-MORTGAGES-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The Bush administration on Monday proposed two new federally insured mortgage products aimed at helping first-time homebuyers with low or moderate incomes access home loans.

In an analysis accompanying Bush's budget proposal, the administration said it would propose legislation to create a zero-downpayment Federal Housing Administration mortgage program that would allow first-time buyers with strong credit records to finance 100 percent of the home purchase price and closing costs.

Under a second program, buyers with limited or weak credit histories could access loans under an FHA program that initially charges a higher insurance premium that declines after a period of on-time payments.

This is astoundingly stupid and an obvious attempt at pumping that bubble even more.

[UpInArms]

51. PIEHOLE ALERT:

10:14am 02/06/06 BERNANKE: WILL RELY ON 'UNMATCHED EXPERTISE' OF FED STAFF

10:11am 02/06/06 BUSH SAYS BERNANKE WILL BE 'SUPERB' FED CHAIRMAN

[54anickel]

52. Passing Ships in the Night (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060203-fri.html#anchor0

Much is made of the so-called symbiotic relationship between the US and China. It has been an especially good story over the past five years. With the US consumer driving the demand side of the global economy and the Chinese producer increasingly driving the supply side, the two economies appear to fit together like a glove. China’s apparent willingness to play a disproportionate role in funding America’s gaping current-account deficit only adds to this conviction. My advice: Don’t get used to it. Like two ships passing in the night, both China and the US are headed in very different directions.

At the macro level, disparities between consumption and saving underscore one of the most important differences in the structure of the US and Chinese economies. US consumption has been holding at a record of around 71% of GDP since early 2002, while the gross national saving rate fell to only about 13.5% in 2005. By contrast, based on China’s newly revised national income statistics, the consumption share of GDP appears to have slipped to a record low of slightly less than 50% in 2005, whereas the overall Chinese saving rate rose above 45% last year. In both cases, these are unsustainable extremes. America needs to consume less and save more, whereas China needs to do precisely the opposite -- save less and consume more.

Easier said than done, of course. But a shift in the consumption-saving tradeoff is an increasingly urgent priority for both economies. In the case of the US, a record shortfall of domestic saving leaves America in the difficult position of having to import surplus saving from abroad -- and thereby having to run massive current account and trade deficits in order to attract the capital. Moreover, America’s consumption binge has drawn its sustenance from the excesses of asset-driven wealth effects -- supported most recently by the precarious combination of a housing bubble and record levels of household sector indebtedness and debt service burdens. At the same time, China’s consumption shortfall is the mirror image of its all-powerful investment- and export-led growth dynamic -- two sectors that collectively account for about 80% of Chinese GDP and that are still growing at close to a 30% annual rate. This, too, is an unsustainable outcome for China. Further sharp increases in investment are a recipe for capacity overhangs and deflation. Continued sharp gains in exports are a recipe for trade frictions and possibly even protectionism, as the developed world responds to the politics of a mounting worker backlash.

snip>

In my view, China needs pro-consumption policy initiatives on two broad fronts -- the first being the establishment of a safety net (i.e., pensions, social security, worker retraining, and unemployment insurance) to deal with the job and income insecurity arising from ongoing reforms of state-owned enterprises. Secondly, China needs to focus on new sources of job creation in order to expand the purchasing power of its enormous population. In that regard, I still believe that China’s relatively undeveloped services sector affords the nation its greatest opportunities for an organic expansion of employment and labor income. Andy Xie offers yet another proposal to stimulate consumption -- a securitization of state-owned assets, which could inject added purchasing power into the Chinese household sector (see his dispatch in today’s Forum, ”China -- What Next?”).

snip>

China is well ahead of the US in tackling its saving-consumption imbalance. Pilot projects already have been established in setting up a safety net, especially in the social security area; moreover, under the terms of China’s WTO accession, the opening of domestic services is likely to accelerate over the next 3-5 years. My experience tells me never to underestimate the determination of the Chinese leadership to push ahead on a major policy initiative. For that reason, alone, China’s pro-consumption efforts can hardly be taken lightly. At the same time, there is little reason to be optimistic that Washington is about to embrace a pro-saving policy agenda. Yesterday’s passage of yet another $70 billion in tax cuts by the US Senate only underscores the seeming intractable character of America’s structural budget deficit problem. On balance, it appears that China is making better progress than the US in altering the balance of its consumption-saving tradeoff.

more...

[UpInArms]

59. Pot meet Kettle: Bush budget seeks to recycle spent nuclear fuel

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T152355Z_01_N06403466_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-BUDGET-NUCLEAR.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush on Monday asked the U.S. Congress for $250 million in research funds to restart a controversial program that would reprocess spent nuclear fuel.

The United States abandoned the technology in the 1970s because it was too expensive and there was fear terrorist groups or rogue nations could get access to the plutonium and make nuclear bombs.

However, the administration said it wants to phase-out the old recycling methods that separated plutonium from the spent fuel and created a nuclear proliferation risk.

Using new technology, the plutonium would "remain bound" with other highly radioactive materials, making it less useful for nuclear weapons and reducing security concerns, according to the administration.

The money for its so-called "Global Nuclear Energy Partnership" was included in the administration proposed budget for the 2007 spending year. The program would be part of the Energy Department.

Under the recycling program, the administration said the United States would partner with other countries to establish the infrastructure necessary to supply nuclear fuel to other nations.

...more...

[54anickel]

62. Pensions and other retiree benefits are graduating to the balance sheet

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/5435568/c_5487722?f=home_todayinfinance

snip>

In November, the Financial Accounting Standards Board voted to move toward a proposal that would require companies to report the difference between the net present value of their pension- and other retirement-benefit obligations and the amount the company has set aside to meet those obligations. And although a final decision is a year or more away, the numbers won't be pretty.

Standard & Poor's, in fact, estimates a retirement-obligations shortfall of some $442 billion in the S&P 500 alone. Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the potential impact of the FASB plan, which is expected to be only the first phase in a larger effort to overhaul the accounting treatment of pensions and benefits. "We believe this FASB project will have a significant impact on stock evaluations, income statements, and balance sheets, and will become the major issue in financial accounting over the next five years," S&P wrote in its December report.

snip>

But it won't be without pain for many companies faced with adding a large negative number to their balance sheets, such as telecom giant Verizon Communications Inc. S&P reported in December that Verizon has underfunded the nonpension portion of its postretirement benefits by an estimated $22.5 billion. The company is clearly trying to get a handle on retirement benefits and health-care costs, announcing that same month that it will freeze the pension benefits of all managers who currently receive them.

snip>

If any of these companies think the markets will treat these obligations as a one-time problem, they had better think again, says S&P equity market analyst Howard Silverblatt. "Moving this onto the balance sheet is going to wake people up," he says. "The bottom line is that shareholder equity is going to be decreased by about 9 percent." And as companies begin to explore their legal options for limiting the financial damage — including paring back benefits even further — Silverblatt predicts that the issue will become more politicized and remain in the public eye for years to come.

more...check out the table of the top 5 underfunded plans

[UpInArms]

71. 11:17 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,801.95 +8.33 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,258.83 -3.75 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,265.42 +1.39 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.541 +0.08 (+0.18%)

NYSE Volume 694,285,000
Nasdaq Volume 617,480,000

10:55 am : The market continues to bounce around the unchanged mark. Health Care (-0.7%) and Technology (-0.5%) are the two sectors exerting the most downside. With respect to Tech, the computer hardware industry demonstrates relative weakness that is largely a result of Apple's (AAPL 69.52 -2.33) extended decline. Peer Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 30.16 -0.40) adds to the pressure. Offering some offsetting support is the semiconductor group, which Micron (MU 15.51 +0.62) leads following its positive mention in Digitimes. Other semi issues contributing to the SOX Index's outperformance are AMD, TXN, BRCM, FSL-B, and TSM. The industry's rise has helped limit the Tech sector's slide, but is not currently enough to pull it, or the Nasdaq, out of the red.DJ30 +0.32 NASDAQ -6.69 SP500 +0.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1632/1146/509.3 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1532/1420/384.2 mln

10:30 am : Flat line vacillation persists. At this point, the blue chip indices are outperforming the Nasdaq. Within the Dow, upgraded Alcoa (AA 31.54 +0.96) shares continue to provide the most support. Exxon Mobil (XOM 62.00 +0.61) contributes further upside as it enjoys the buying interest that has taken the Energy sector +1.5% higher. An additional bright spot is American International Group (AIG 66.25 +0.90), which has advanced upon reports that it is expected to settle with federal and state regulators for $1.6 billion. Separately, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been recently sworn into office. The event has not had an effect on trade within either the stock or bond markets.DJ30 +2.48 NASDAQ -3.36 SP500 +0.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1390/1252/386.1 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1282/1573/280.2 mln

[UpInArms]

73. Chinese Bankers in Fraud Case were located in US

Bank of China vows strict controls after scandal

BEIJING (Reuters) - Bank of China, planning an $8 billion share sale, said on Monday it had learned from its mistakes and would tighten internal controls, after former staff were charged in the United States with a scheme to defraud the bank of nearly half a billion dollars over 13 years.

The lender, one of China's four big state-owned banks, said it would strengthen its internal risk controls ahead of its initial public offering, now expected to be delayed to the second half of this year.

A U.S. federal grand jury on January 31 charged Xu Chaofan and Xu Guojun, former branch managers at the state bank, and their wives with 15 counts of money laundering, racketeering and fraud over a 13-year scheme to defraud the bank of $485 million.

<snip>

Wang said the bank had itself discovered irregularities by the two former managers in 2001 but the U.S. Justice Department said last week the scheme ran until 2004, when the arrests were made.

The two men had created shell corporations in Hong Kong and funneled the Bank of China's money into fake firms and into numerous personal bank and investment accounts, the U.S. Justice Department said in a statement.

A third former Bank of China manager pleaded guilty to playing a role in the scheme and had cooperated with investigators, the department said, adding he had returned to China to face prosecution for bribery and bank theft.

...more...

[UpInArms]

81. pre-noon blather

11:30 am : Little has changed for the equity market, and the indices continue to hover in unchanged territory. In the Treasury market, the benchmark 10-year note is down four ticks and yielding 4.54%. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury bond is advancing for a third straight day on speculation that demand for the note, at its upcoming auction that will be its first since 2001, will be solid. That bond is presently up eight ticks and offering 4.61%. The return of the 30-yr bond is expected to hold some sway with institutional investors, but it won't have any real meaning at this stage of things for the individual investor.DJ30 +5.85 NASDAQ -3.38 SP500 +1.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1513/1321/657.3 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1410/1636/542.1 mln

edited for shiny coin headbump :D

[ozymandius]

82. lunchtime buzz

12:23
Dow 10,791.54 -2.08 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,257.96 -4.62 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,264.57 +0.54 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 45.35 +0.02 (+0.04%)
NYSE Volume 966,363,000
Nasdaq Volume 847,570,000

[UpInArms]

83. Hiya Ozy!

Glad to see you are still here!

:hi:

[54anickel]

87. Ahead of the Yield Curve (Mauldin no longer calling for Muddle along)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mauldin020406.html

snip>

Cutting to the chase, I am going to make an argument that it is high time for you to start thinking about taking a defensive posture on your stock market investments. None of the indicators we will be looking at give us anything close to exact timing, but there are enough red flashing lights to give us cause for concern about the direction of the market in the coming quarters.

First, let's review one chart from last week. This is the primary chart from Ahead of the Curve where Joe outlines how the business cycle works. You can see all the updated charts and a lot more by going to www.aheadofthecurve-thebook.com and click on them. If you are serious about investing in the stock market this is a must-read book. Joe Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked as Wall Street's #1 retail analyst for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor. Take advantage of the wisdom he is offering. Amazon.com

In Joe's view of the world, the business and stock market cycles are driven by real (after inflation) consumer spending. As we will see, once real consumer spending peaks, the economy is getting ready to slow down and the market is getting ready begin a bear phase.

snip>

"In other words, consumer spending is dominant in the economy as a whole to such an extent that it is, by itself, the sector that cyclically determines the direction of the overall economy. This being the case, carefully monitoring overall consumer spending - or, even more significantly, forecasting the direction of consumer demand - is the key that unlocks effective forecasting for most other developments and sectors in the economy.

Joe's next point is that the obsession with recessions is misplaced. By the time we are actually in a recession, much of the economic damage has already been done. Let's look at this next chart. It is an analysis of various economic data before, during and after the economic downturn of 2000-2002. In his book, Joe looks at several other such downturns, but this recent one will do for our purposes here. As you look at the chart, the yellow area is the bear market and the darker area in the middle is the actual recession.

more...

[Danascot]

108. OK, I have to ask

this question of you market wizards:

I understand that the market views increased employment rates and higher wages as a negative, because it raises labor costs and contributes to inflation. However, it's always seemed to me that if employment and wages go up, people have more money to buy things, it stimulates the economy, and profits should rise. Conversely, if there is high unemployment and wages are stagnate or falling relative to prices, people rein in their spending and the economy slows down.

Here we have Joe Ellis saying that "consumer spending is dominant in the economy".

So why doesn't the market recognize employment and higher wages as a more positive driver?

.. or is the market just dominated by Repukes, the same people who bid up the market when republicans win elections in the demonstrably mistaken belief that the economy fares better under Repukes?

[UpInArms]

110. jmho

to flesh out your last sentence:

.. or is the market just dominated by Repukes, the same people who bid up the market when republicans win elections in the demonstrably mistaken belief that the economy fares better under Repukes?

the market appears to be "dominated" by traders or institutions that are guided by Rs and the media is "dominated" or guided by Rs and the R's spin is to say that only "wage" inflation is bad.

They never put the entire though process through a logic-wringer that will prove that they have a completely self-defeating policy -

Until now, except for the period of the Great Depression, they have not had control of all 3 branches of the government and have had some checks and balances to their powers.

http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm

[Danascot]

122. ... and I thought free markets eventually revealed all truth.

I guess the question is, How long is eventually?

The past few years of conservative and repug control have seen many cherished hoary repug beliefs, like trickle down/Voodoo economics, proven to be wrong. The number of mistaken theories and just how wrong they are proving to be is pretty astonishing. Too bad we're all forced to take part in this mad non-science project.

I know what you mean by "the market appears to be "dominated" by traders or institutions that are guided by Rs". I read Investors Business Daily for the market stuff but I can hardly get past their political stories and comments without barfing. They make the WSJ editorial page seem like it was written by Ted Kennedy.

Thanks for your insight and taking the time to respond.

[54anickel]

113. Old habits and theories die hard. The wage-price spiral theory has

been around since shortly after the labor movement. It was actually disproven during the Clinton years, but hey, nobody believes any good happened during those 8 years - it must have been a fluke. The theory is used to maintain the battle between the working class and the owners of capital.

http://www.somc.rochester.edu/sept99/hess999.pdf

snip>

In the aftermath of the demotion of employment variables as early warning
devices for rising inflation, recent attention has turned to wage and compensation
growth as the current fashionable labor market indicator for inflation. The standard
argument for how increased labor costs tend to push up prices, leading to the wage-price
spiral, is as follows:

“In developing a framework, we start from the fact that when buoyant
demand reduces unemployment (at least relative to recent experienced
levels), inflationary pressure develops. Firms start bidding against each
other for labor, and workers feel more confident in pressing wage claims.
If the inflationary pressure is too great, inflation starts spiraling upwards:
higher wages lead to higher price rises, leading to still higher wage rises,
and so on. This is the wage-price sprial.”2

The recent emphasis on whether higher wages will lead to higher prices circumvents the
low unemployment part of the above description of the wage-price spiral. In effect, it
attempts to understand whether large wage rises will lead to rising inflation even if it
does not understand what low unemployment rate will trigger these large wage changes.
The intuition behind the view that higher wages cause higher prices is that
since labor costs are a large fraction of a firm’s total costs of production, an increase
in wages and compensation should put pressure on firms to pass through these
higher costs onto higher prices. This story is incomplete, however, for a few reasons.
First, an increase in wages will not create inflationary pressure if the increase in wages is
brought about by increased labor productivity. Hence, controlling for labor productivity
(i.e. supply effects) in the analysis between wages and prices would seem very important.
Second, an increase in wages will not create inflationary pressure if the increase in wages
leads to a squeeze in a firm’s profits due to their inability to pass along cost increases.
No firm inherits the right to simply ‘mark-up’ the prices of its output as a constant
proportion above their costs, as competitive market pressures provide a strong influence
on the pricing decisions of firms. Finally, the causation could work in the opposite
direction: due to an increase in aggregate demand, firms may be able to raise the
price of their products and the resulting increase in profits would lead workers to
demand a higher wage in future negotiations.

It turns out that the vast majority of the published evidence and the evidence
presented below suggests that there is little reason to believe that wage inflation
causes price inflation. In fact, it is more often found that price inflation causes wage
inflation. Moreover, wage inflation does a very poor job of predicting price
inflation throughout the 1990’s, while money growth and productivity growth do a
much better job. The policy conclusion to be drawn is that inflation can strike
unexpectedly without any evidence from the labor market.

[Danascot]

123. Thanks for the article

It is an excellent exploration of the wage and employment issue. Hopefully people in the financial arena will come around to Joe Ellis' point of view as more evidence of what he is saying becomes evident.

Thanks for taking the time to respond to my question. It's been bothering me.

"nobody believes any good happened during those 8 years" Thank god Bush ended our national nightmare of peace and prosperity. :puke:

[54anickel]

125. You are very welcome, and thank you for stopping by the SMW thread.

It's always nice to have company come to call. ;-)

Sorry for my poor manners when you first posted, I should have offered refreshments. :donut:

[UpInArms]

95. Mesaba seeks to void union contracts, cut 1,600 jobs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-06T185616Z_01_N0610797_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-MESABA-BANKRUPTCY.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Mesaba Aviation, a subsidiary of MAIR Holdings Inc. (MAIR.O: Quote, Profile, Research), is seeking to reject contracts with unions representing the regional airline's pilots, flight attendants and mechanics, according to court documents.

The feeder carrier also expects to cut about 1,600 jobs through layoffs or furloughs, according to documents filed on Friday in a U.S. bankruptcy court in Minnesota.

Mesaba, which filed for Chapter 11 in October, has been squeezed by the bankruptcy of its partner, Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWACQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), it said.

The company said it must reduce its expenses by $66.4 million annually, including $17.1 million in lower labor costs, to emerge from bankruptcy.

"Without the requested labor cost reductions, Mesaba will no longer be able to continue and will be forced to liquidate," it said in the filing.

...more...

[UpInArms]

96. 2:14 EST market has finally picked a direction: down

Dow 10,787.64 -5.98 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,252.56 -10.02 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,262.97 -1.06 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.541 +0.08 (+0.18%)

NYSE Volume 1,383,989,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,224,182,000

2:00 pm : The Materials sector (+1.2%) continues to advance. Upgraded Alcoa (AA) shares have been the sector's, as well as the Dow's, support today. Surging US Steel (X) shares lend further muscle. According to Dow Jones, the German press has reported that Arcelor is looking into acquiring US Steel in its attempt to fend off Mittal Steel's (MT) hostile bid. On January 27, Mittal, the world's largest steelmaker, launched a takeover offer for Arcelor SA that valued the number-two steelmaker at $22.7 billion. Three days later, Arcelor's board rejected what would have been the largest steel deal ever. We continue to expect M&A activity to be a supportive factor for the market during 2006.DJ30 +3.21 NASDAQ -4.45 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1529/1426/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1366/1826/950.9 mln

1:25 pm : Sideways trade persists, and the indices continue to stand in mixed fashion. This morning's earnings calendar did not offer much market-moving news, but some upcoming reports from Dow components may serve as catalysts. Following today's bell, Walt Disney (DIS 25.07 +0.06), which is one of our recommended holdings for active investors, will announce results. As a side note, SG Cowen recommended the stock today. The firm noted that it expects DIS to deliver double-digit operating income growth in FY06, driven by the Studio Entertainment and Broadcasting segments. Coca-Cola (KO 40.87 -0.01) is slated to report before tomorrow's open. Cisco Systems (CSCO 17.96 -0.19), although it's not a Dow component, will be carefully watched and is scheduled to report after the close of regular trade Tuesday.DJ30 +4.89 NASDAQ -4.17 SP500 +1.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1524/1410/657.3 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1412/1741/841.3 mln

[UpInArms]

112. 3:29 EST reversing course

Dow 10,806.03 +12.41 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,257.91 -4.67 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,265.09 +1.06 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.545 +0.12 (+0.26%)

NYSE Volume 1,734,962,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,531,386,000

3:00 pm : The market remains within proximity of the flat line and inside of today's narrow trading range. Over the past 30 minutes, the Dow has managed to bounce back to gaining ground. Alcoa (AA 31.90 +1.32) remains its crutch, but other leadership within the blue chip average has dwindled. American International Group (AIG 65.91 +0.56), AT&T (T 27.04 +0.25), and Exxon Mobil (XOM 62.00 +0.61) also lend support that attempts to counter the losses levied by 16 of 30 constituents. Merck (MRK 33.82 -0.57) is the heaviest drag, and also a primary factor behind the Health Care sector's (-1.1%) underperformance. Fellow pharmaceutical Pfizer (PFE 25.09 -0.19) also weighs heavily, as does Microsoft (MSFT 37.17 -0.37). DJ30 +5.77 NASDAQ -8.54 SP500 +0.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1684/1328/1.40 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1538/1689/1.18 bln

2:30 pm : Each of the indices are now in the red. Exacerbated selling across the Health Care (-1.1%) and Technology (-0.8%) sectors weighs heavily. At the same time, the Energy sector has pared its market-supporting gain to 1.1% alongside crude's reversal. In its final trading minutes, the price of March futures contracts has hit a session low of $66.15 per barrel (-0.3%). Most of the S&P 500's Energy issues remain higher on the day, just to a somewhat lesser degree. With respect to the Tech sector, relative strength in semiconductors continues to limit its downside. Due to plunging Apple (AAPL 67.26 -4.59) shares, the hardware industry poses considerable offsetting pressure. AAPL is currently the Nasdaq's second worst performer.DJ30 -6.88 NASDAQ -11.54 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1688/1303/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1578/1640/1.05 bln

[EuroObserver]

114. Apple trips up Nasdaq

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. technology shares declined on Monday as Apple Computer Co. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) shares extended their recent slide, while blue-chip stocks were slightly higher.

Apple's shares fell 6.6 percent to $67.08 on the Nasdaq. The stock has been trading at a premium to competitors, and an analyst said some investors may be concerned about Apple's planned transition to Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) processors. Apple had been using chips made by International Business Machines Corp. (IBM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) for its computers.
...
"Seems like some of the stocks that had really run up have taken a bit of a tumble as of late," said Ray Rund, managing director and head of research at Shaker Investments.

The price of Apple's stock, which was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 as well as the Nasdaq, is about 32 times estimated 2006 earnings.

...more...

[54anickel]

118. TREASONOUS BUSH FOSTERING FASCISM

http://www.niagarafallsreporter.com/gallagher249.html

DETROIT -- We, the suffering American people, are now in the sixth winter of our national discontent, thoroughly numbed by President George W. Bush's radical agenda, wild misjudgments and wholesale lies. He sells fear to win support, when it is he we must fear most.

The nation and world brace to endure more of Bush's obsessions, miscalculations, greed and sheer incompetence. We are in the seventh hell of an administration that claims all power and denies all responsibility. The state of our union is frightening.

These are very dangerous times. Nothing in our national experience has prepared us for the chilling consequences of the double dose of foreign and domestic irresponsibility and recklessness Bush has wrought.

Of course, I wish I could say I anticipated the cold reality of the Bushevik horrors. I didn't. I was horribly wrong. While I get a steady flow of hate mail accusing me of "hating Bush," I don't. I simply pity him as a tragically flawed figure who happens to be far more lucky than good and an effective prop for the interests he gladly serves. I do despise what he has done to our nation already and fear what's to come.

But that's not what I thought five years ago, after the U.S. Supreme Court selected and anointed this failed progeny of a wealthy family, with a familiar name and vast influence.

Left on his own and relying on his own merits and wit, Bush always fails.

more...

[UpInArms]

124. closing blah - blah

Dow 10,798.27 +4.65 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,258.80 -3.78 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,265.02 +0.99 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.545 +0.12 (+0.26%)

NYSE Volume 2,133,135,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,839,899,000

On Monday, the stock market's major averages traded within a very narrow trading range that surrounded the unchanged mark. Continuing anxiety over the situation with Iran unnerved the market, and lingering inflation concerns gave investors further reason to stick close to the sidelines.

Over the weekend, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Iran to the UN Security Council on fears that the country is seeking to enrich uranium with the intention of creating nuclear weapons. The world's fourth largest oil producer's assertion that it will not cooperate with inspections exacerbated the market's concerns that the country may cut its oil supply as a response to sanctions. Even though inventory stockpiles are well supplied, the tight market conditions and near-capacity production leaves little cushion to cover that source of supply. Crude futures spent most of the session on gaining ground; although they reversed late in the day, geopolitical factors remain a bearish backdrop for the broader market. As these concerns continue to support prices that are well above historical levels, we maintain an Overweight rating on the Energy sector (+1.6%), which led trade today.

Uncertainty over the duration of the Fed's tightening cycle was an additional overhang today. In the wake of an ambiguous FOMC policy directive and mixed inflation signals, the latest of which was an up tick in hourly earnings on Friday, we see an increased risk that the Fed will raise interest rates more than had been previously anticipated. To that end, we today modified our Market View to Neutral from Moderately Bullish. At the same time, we note that while earnings growth is expected to slow, valuations continue to represent good value. Due also to very strong levels of corporate cash flow, we hold a neutral rather than bearish outlook on the stock market.

Alcoa (AA 32.02 +1.44), which had been upgraded to Overweight at J.P. Morgan this morning, supported the Dow and took the Materials sector 1.7% higher. Surging steel issues lent further upside. That industry extended its advance upon reports Arcelor is looking into acquiring US Steel (X 61.67 +3.75) in its attempt to fend off Mittal Steel's (MT 35.65 +0.27) hostile bid. Anticipation of consolidation has helped drive the steel industry approximately 32% higher this year; we continue to expect M&A activity to be a supportive factor for the market during 2006. General Motors (GM 23.86 +0.71) also helped buttress the blue chip average, and it limited the Discretionary sector's (-0.1%) decline. GM's Board meeting occurred today, and the stock received some added attention as the market awaits information regarding its potential GMAC sale and dividend change.

Gains, outside of the Energy and Materials sectors, were modest, but losses were similarly well-contained. On account of wide-spread selling, the Healthcare sector was the laggard (-0.9%). The HMO industry was a particular source of weakness following Humana's (HUM 53.60 -1.30) somewhat disappointing fourth quarter earnings report. A 0.5% decline in the Technology sector also weighed heavily. Selling there was also broad-based, but plunging Apple (AAPL 67.46 -4.39) shares were a primary culprit for the sector's, and the Nasdaq's, underperformance. Its fall was largely due to technical factors. Strength in semiconductors lent strong offsetting support.

Today's economic calendar was a blank one, and the earnings front was devoid of much market-moving news. Some upcoming reports may serve as catalysts: after the bell, Disney (DIS), a Briefing.com recommended holding for active investors, will report. Coca-Cola (KO) is slated to announce results Tuesday morning, followed by Cisco Systems (CSCO) after the close of trade.DJ30 +4.65 NASDAQ -3.78 SP500 +0.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1466/1569/1.80 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1310/1971/1.53 bln