CA: U.S. House race watched for shift to Democrats

[UpInArms]

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-06T141137Z_01_N05338572_RTRIDST_0_USA-ELECTION-WRAPUP-2.XML

WASHINGTON, June 6 (Reuters) - A hard-fought U.S. House election in California is being closely watched for signs of a political shift away from President George W. Bush's Republican party in November's congressional election.

Among the contests in a busy day of voting in eight states on Tuesday, Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray are running hard in a special election in a conservative district north of San Diego to replace former Republican congressman Randy Cunningham, who is now in prison for taking bribes.

With congressional Republicans and Bush slumping in the polls, the California race could provide clues to voter sentiment in November when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as 33 Senate seats and 36 governorships, will be up for grabs.

Montana, Alabama, Iowa, New Jersey, Mississippi, New Mexico and South Dakota also hold primaries to select candidates for the November elections. Among the key races, Montana Democrats choose a challenger to embattled Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, California Democrats pick a rival for Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and both parties choose a nominee for governor in Alabama.

In November, Democrats must pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to regain control in each chamber, giving them the power to set the legislative agenda and more effectively challenge Bush.

...more...

[FreakinDJ]

1. not the only district

[BrotherBuzz]

20. Still another district the might become interesting is CA11

Pombo is being challenged by Pete McCloskey in the republican primary. The district may not flip, but McCloskey is a move in the right direction and I would love to see the ass Pombo pack his bags.



Katherine Harris with Congressman Pombo in Washington. Birds of a feather....

[FreakinDJ]

22. She has that look - "Why is your hand on my Ass?"

[Xithras]

25. I LOVE McCloskey's radio commercials.

McCloskey has been running radio commercials in local media markets, including conservative talk radio, that have systematically dismantled Pombo's status as the "conservative" guy. The best ad is the one that basically paints Pombo as an enemy of the military, citing his lack of service and his repeated votes against funding programs to help wounded soldiers. It goes on to point out that McCloskey is a decorated combat veteran, and has an awesome endoresement in it by the head of one of our local veterans organization...wherein the head of the organization basically calls Pombo "anti-soldier and anti-veteran". In the conservative Central Valley with its long history of military service, that HAD to ring some serious bells with the conservative Pombo supporters.

McCloskey may be a Rethug too, but he's a heck of a step up from Pombo. Unlike Pombo, McCloskey seems to actually care about the area more than his own pocketbook (Pombo is a huge land speculator here in Nor Cal, and much of his opposition to the ESA stems from the fact that he's invested in protected habitat and he wants to develop it). Where Pombo wants to build superfreeways all over the place, McCloskey wants to offer incentives to carpool and have the government fund local rail and mass transit projects.

We may not have a viable Democrat running in the district, but I'll take McCloskey over Pombo anyday. Some journeys happen in steps rather than leaps.

[redqueen]

2. Go Busby!

:bounce:

[aquart]

3. They give the visitor, Bilbray, a 1 percent lead. In San Diego.

Did I mention, Bilbray doesn't live there? He's pretending Mama's house is his residence.

[redqueen]

5. I would think that the military presence in SD

would reduce the carpetbagger's chances.

Perhaps a good many still like the kool aid a lot.

[aquart]

32. A one percent lead for a Republican????

That's a seismic event with a tsunami watch.

[rucky]

4. Local media's been hitting Busby HARD

over a statement she made in a speech to Hispanic voters (and non-voters).

[stepnw1f]

6. Isn't Bilbray Involved in the Abramoff Scandal

I thought I had read that somewhere...

[mountebank]

7. Yep - check out this post for more information. nt

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1348616&mesg_id=1350281

From calipendence's list:

1) Brian Bilbray and his wife took a trip to the Marianas Island on Jack Abramoff's dime! Check this out!

http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kpbs/news/news.newsma...

and another from TPM Muckraker on the same subject, where he denies knowing Abramoff in much the same fashion he denies knowing Brent Wilkes...

http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/000355.php

2) Bilbray as congressman earlier flip flopped on a campaign finance reform bill that McCain was trying to get through congress. Ask voters while phone banking if, given this info, whether they should trust him to keep his word and not follow his lobbyist instincts to fight campaign finance reform once again! He's shown that he's lied in favor of it in the past. Why won't he do it again!

http://www.netconnection.com/campfin.html

3) Is he a resident of California? He's making a big issue of his kids having to pay non-resident tuition here (because they are actually registered as Virginia residents, whcih he also shows up as a resident for his house that he owns there). So if people are concerned about people having legitimate jobs here as residents of California, why don't they ask him why he should be given an illegitimate job as a non-California resident too.

Ex-GOP legislator Steve Baldwin just publicly slammed Bilbray for this in this conservative web site.

\http://www.humaneventsonline.com/blog-detail.php?id=153... .

4) Bilbray claims he doesn't know Brent Wilkes of Hookergate and Duke Cunningham infamy... But earlier he received $13,000 campaign donations from both Cunningham and Wilkes. He's since given these donations to charity after holding out a while on them, but anyone want to bet that there aren't more than just campaign donations linking these guys together?

http://www.dccc.org/news/duke_04192006 /


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13006800/site/newsweek/page...

5) The San Diego Minutemen are endorsing independent Griffith instead of Bilbray for Griffith's immigration stances. Could it be that they might trust that Griffith is more honest about his heavy stance against immigrants than Bilbray is purported to be?

6) Bill Hauf is running against Bilbray and claims Bilbray's not conservative enough for 50th district voters.

Does this sound like a guy that San Diego voters should trust? Make sure and ask them about these issues!

[Seabiscuit]

11. Thanks for the list. Bilbray's a skunk, all right.

[depakid]

29. Yep- but Californians in those kinds of districts

are among the stupidest most heavily propagandized voters you'll find anywhere.

They identify with "being" Republican- regardless of the issues or even the character of the candidate.

[mountebank]

8. Low turnout for the Dem primary for gov's race might hurt.....

And who knows how the non-scandal "papers" comments might play out....
I'm still optimistic.

[Seabiscuit]

9. Busby will win. Not doubt about it.

Despite the hordes of ignorant, racist, hate-mongering neanderthals in the 50th District, there are a significant number of traditional Republicans crossing over because they're disgusted with a variety of Bush policies, and they, unlike their lesser brethren, are easily able to see through the lies and smears in Bilbray's ads falsely attacking Francine. I personally have met scores of them. Plus, the Democrats in the 50th District are mobilized today like never before. All it takes is to turn a 60-40 Republican advantage into a 50.01-49.99 Democrat advantage, and that just means one more voter than half the traditional Republicans here. I dare say there remains a hard-core dumbass Repuke base of 40%. If the Hispanics alone turn out to vote for a change, Busby could win in a landslide. The media haven't even considered that possibility yet.

BTW, I waved from my car yesterday at Francine as she was standing with a small group of her supporters a the northeast corner of El Camino Real and Del Mar Heights Road in Carmel Valley at about 6:30 p.m. It was cool seeing her out on the street like that so close to my home.

Now 'scuuuse me while I go vote!

[mountebank]

13. Thanks for the post and optimisim from a CA-50 voter.

There has been so much hand-wringing and downright defeatism over the attack ads.

Too bad I can't vote in CA-50 today. I'll be voting in L.A.!

[Lasher]

14. Brave prediction, Seabiscuit

I hope you're right. Guess I'll be up late tonight.

[Seabiscuit]

17. I'll be at her victory party. :)

[Lasher]

37. Sorry, Seabiscuit

I like the way you went for it with your prediction that Busby would win. "Go for it" is a tactic that has sometimes worked quite well for me during these 57 years on this big blue marble. The defeats are a little more bitter, but the victories are very sweet and quite worth it.

Never give up,

Lasher

[slackmaster]

21. I don't think so, Seabiscuit

Declined to State voters are the real "swing" in California. California Republicans are abandoning their party for DTS status at a small fraction of the rate Democrats have been doing the same, and that has been a fact since at least 1998.

http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/ror/15day_06/hist_reg_stats.pdf

Note that San Diego County is one of the top 10 DTS counties, at 21.32%.

[DinahMoeHum]

10. Don't forget, this dance in CA-50 has to be done again in November.

:kick:

[Seabiscuit]

12. Right. That's why today's vote is so important. It could send a message

which could give the Repub pols around the country a serious case of the jitters. And it could wake up the electorate.

[slackmaster]

27. Not if someone gets over 50% of the vote outright, as I understand it

That's why "Declined to State" voters, who can choose to vote in any of the parties' primaries, are so terribly important in this one. An overall winner would take office, serve out the remainder of Duke Cunningham's term, then have to run again in November in the general election. At that point the power of incumbency would probably be enough to keep a candidate of either major party in office unless they really pooch things up.

[MikeH]

15. I will be voting for Busby today

I live in the 50th district, and I have met her a couple of times.

I saw her and Bilbray debate in a local forum, and Bilbray gave a lot of the GOP talking points. In his opening statement Bilbray talked about the earth shattering issue of keeping the cross on Mount Soledad (in La Jolla). About the Iraq war, Bilbray spouted the standard GOP line of staying in to not send a bad message to the terrorists.

[Divine Discontent]

16. would you PLEASE

keep a lookout for Ann Coulter....

she has a penchant for voting in the wrong district and might think no one will notice if she puts down the GOP hdqts. as her address just so she can vote for bilbray

www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<<--- CHECK IT OUT! pro-Dem anti-Rep anti-Bush stickers/shirts

[Seabiscuit]

18. Adam's Apple Alert!

[President Kerry]

30. accidentally saw her on TV today..

man, has she gotten fugly. Her looks are starting to match the bile coming out of her mouth.

[slackmaster]

35. She's smart enough for the job but doesn't have the temperament

For "real" politics.

[tritsofme]

19. I think the media is trying to set expections way too high for Busby.

This is a very Republican district.

If the Republican wins, all we will hear about is the Dems already failed strategy for '06 and other such propaganda.

[Bandit]

23. I doubt Busby will win but if she even comes close it should

cause some major concern. Remember this is a heavily Republican area and if a Democrat even comes close here it means Republicans are not doing well. Republicans may not be happy but they will not change their beliefs...

[mountebank]

24. I just don't understand this attitude.

Busby has been within the margin of error or leading in major recent polls. There is demonstrable evidence that many Republicans in CA-50 are willing to vote for Busby, not necessarily because they have changed their beliefs, but because Busby is a better option. Sure, she might not win - it's obviously a close race - but I just don't understand the defeatist attitude. It seems perfectly realistic that Busby could win this race.

[MikeH]

26. Right; think positive

It's not over till it's over.

[catzies]

28. Right you are, and the polls are open another 90 minutes.

:patriot: I just voted in the CA-24th.

[Toots]

33. It is called reality you need to learn to deal with it

It is going to happen much more than we would like..

[slackmaster]

36. But people have to actually vote in order to have their votes count

It seems perfectly realistic that Busby could win this race.

Yes, but almost 3 out of 4 registered voters in San Diego County couldn't be bothered to go to the polls.

[midnight]

31. For those who know that these elections are rigged,

Does it matter how many seats the Democrates need?

[slackmaster]

34. CA-50 was not rigged, my friend

The problem is all the thousands of people who didn't bother to vote.

I believe Republicans turned out in droves because of their opposition to Busby and to Proposition 82.