Intelligence report: Al Qaida at renewed strength in Pakistan

[laststeamtrain]

Source: McClatchy Newspapers

Intelligence report: Al Qaida at renewed strength in Pakistan
By Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The al Qaida terrorist network has rebounded and is at its greatest strength since it was expelled from Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, a new top-level U.S. intelligence assessment concludes, U.S. officials said Wednesday.

<snip>

The U.S. intelligence community's assessment of the al Qaida threat comes as more bad news for President Bush.

Bush has repeatedly tried to cast the increasingly unpopular war in Iraq as part of the struggle against worldwide terrorism.

But many of the government's own counterterrorism analysts say the Iraq war has fueled anti-Western militancy and served as recruitment aid for bin Laden and like-minded Islamic extremists.

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/17857.html

---

The double-bind: Al Qaida's strong so you need me but my policy makes them strong so I should be fired.

[Up2Late]

1. Don't tell "the president," we all need to keep pretending his "war on terror" is working...

...and then we'll be just fine. Ignorance is bliss! :sarcasm:

Here's the AP report that they were freaking out about on MSNBC tonight:

Jul 12, 4:57 AM EDT

Al-Qaida has rebuilt, U.S. intel warns

By MATTHEW LEE and KATHERINE SHRADER
Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A new threat assessment from U.S. counterterrorism analysts says that al-Qaida has used its safe haven along the Afghan-Pakistan border to restore its operating capabilities to a level unseen since the months before Sept. 11, 2001.

A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the document - titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West" - called it a stark appraisal. The analysis will be part of a broader meeting at the White House on Thursday about an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate. The official and others spoke to The Associated Press on condition they not be identified because the report remains classified.

The findings suggests that the network that launched the most devastating terror attack on U.S. soil has been able to regroup despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at dismantling it. The threat assessment focuses on the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.

Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al-Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer. Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack on U.S. soil. Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the counterterrorism official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

(more at link) <http://staging.hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TERROR_THREAT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-07-12-04-57-23>

[laststeamtrain]

2. Here's some tidbits from "Intelligence Briefing on the Hill Today" from the MoJo Blog

Intelligence Briefing on the Hill Today

The top intelligence analysts for the CIA, Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) provided a Global Security Assessment to the full House Armed Services Committee today. Committee chairman Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Missouri) presided at the hearing briefed by ODNI deputy director for analysis Thomas Fingar (.pdf), CIA director for intelligence John Kringen, and DIA deputy director for analysis Robert Cardillo.

It was sobering. Some key points:

--Concern that Al Qaeda is getting more comfortable in "ungoverned territories" of Pakistan, particularly Waziristan, due to various factors, including a recent agreement by the Pakistani authorities to leave Islamic militants in Waziristan alone. Intelligence community seeing more signs Al Qaeda is able to train, communicate in Pakistan (also of Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan). US policymakers reluctant to intervene in a major way in a sovereign country, especially as Musharraf's position is vulnerable, and out of the concern that what is now a problem in corners of Pakistan could explode across the whole country of 169 million people. There are a lot of potential terrorist recruits in Pakistan, one of the analysts said. (This focusing one's attention more by Pakistani analyst on BBC this morning comparing US relationship with Musharraf to "Shah of Iran" situation). Translation: duck.

--Expect a new National Intelligence Estimate on terrorist threats to the homeland (this is not yet officially out or "known" -- a couple journalists grabbed one of the CIA analysts during the break, his press aide politely monitoring the conversation), which Fingar rated the greatest threat to US national security. Al Qaida remains the greatest threat to the country. US intel community is increasingly concerned about Al Qaeda-linked militants in Pakistan using Europe, and in particular the UK, as a gateway to target the US homeland. Thwarted airplane plot last summer "very sophisticated" and of the type that concerns them, with its mix of UK and Pakistani-based terrorists working together on a plot to target the US.

--US intel community has recently acquired more intelligence on Iran's nuclear program. A consequently slightly delayed NIE on Iran's nuclear program should be delivered before the 110th Congress is out (slightly more harried DNI press aide trying to shepherd him away from us).

--Iraq -- Fingar suggested the US could control the "modalities" of how it spun say an eventual drawdown or withdrawal from Iraq. "It is too early to assess whether the new strategy being implemented in Iraq will allow lasting improvements to the situation. If violence is reduced and a window for political compromise is created, increased stability in Iraq will depend on how several issues evolve." Go read his briefing for more. (Also see this Woodward piece on what CIA director Mike Hayden really told the White House: Iraq instability is "irreversible.")

-- bin Laden is alive, the CIA analyst said, and he is deferring public relations to Zawahiri for a while now, as he's done at other points. Are they together, someone asked him. He didn't know. If he knew, he'd be on a plane over there, he said.

Just something to keep in mind from your reporter here. Iraq: 20-25 million people. Iran: 65 to 70 million people. Pakistan: 170 million people. And Pakistan is the one with the precipitous situation for its military government, widespread sympathies for the Taliban and Islamic jihadis, and the historical relationship with the UK whose citizens have easier access to US visas and entry. Oh yeah, and the bomb. Perhaps it's a good thing the USS Stennis carrier group is sailing back from the Persian Gulf to Hawaii. Sometimes, you don't get to choose your enemies, but they choose you.


http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2007/07/4843_intelligence_br.html
*

For people who just read headlines the AP story is soooo spun. Disgusting.

[Algorem]

3. your perpetual enemy in your perpetual war has to have head-

quarters somewhere."safe haven",i mean.




















We just can't get them there.



























It's impossible.


















































Right.

[Up2Late]

4. kick n/t

:kick:

[ohio2007]

5. Did somebody tell Musharraf about this story ? nt