Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts

[XemaSab]

Source: New York Times

The Arctic ice cap shrank so much this summer that waves briefly lapped along two long-imagined Arctic shipping routes, the Northwest Passage over Canada and the Northern Sea Route over Russia.

Now the six-month dark season has returned to the North Pole. In the deepening chill, new ice is already spreading over vast stretches of the Arctic Ocean. Astonished by the summer’s changes, scientists are studying the forces that exposed one million square miles of open water — six Californias — beyond the average since satellites started measurements in 1979.

Experts say the ice retreat is likely to be even bigger next summer because this winter’s freeze is starting from such a huge ice deficit. At least one researcher, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., projects a blue Arctic Ocean in summers by 2013.

The new NASA study of expelled old ice builds on previous measurements showing that the proportion of thick, durable floes that were at least 10 years old dropped to 2 percent this spring from 80 percent in the spring of 1987, said Ignatius G. Rigor, an ice expert at the University of Washington and an author of the new NASA-led study.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/science/earth/02arct.html

[SpiralHawk]

1. "The weather is lovely at my Pig Farm -- smirk, smrik, smirk" - Commander AWOL

"So since things are good for me, smirk, I am going to have to condemn this article as just more liberal, fact-based stuff, and therefore of no relevance to me and my base of corrupt republicon homelander cronies - smirk, smirk, smirk"

- Commander AWOL

[orleans]

2. k&r

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[Judi Lynn]

3. I wonder how many others have heard commercial spots on local radio talk shows

sponsored by some right wing organization which have been running for ages, insisting there is GROWING ice in Antarctica....

I would tell you more about the commercial but I always block it out mentally when I hear it. I think it makes reference to Al Gore, but I can't be sure.

Why IS it so important to Republicans to deny reality on this issue? Is it only because sensible people resist drilling in the ANWR, and the right wingdings are damned determined they are going to tear up what's left of the world as a matter of principle, and to show that they can, as a display of power?

[XemaSab]

7. There actually is growing ice in Antarctica

:hide:

[happyslug]

8. And that fits in with Global Warming.

Under most theories involving Global Warming, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), siting on the TALLEST Continent on earth (Antarctica has the highest AVERAGE height of any Continent, Asia has the Himalayans, but that is offset by the vast low lands of Siberia, South American has the Andes, but that is offset by the low lands that are Argentina and the Amazon Basin).

Anyway, do to it height and the fact the EAIS is Completely within the Antarctic Circle (and is LAND not a sea like the Arctic), the ice on the EAIS is expected to EXPAND, mostly in depth but also in size.

While the EAIS is considered Stable (and has been for may be more than a Million years, the must smaller WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET (WAIS) is completely different. The WAIS is grounded BELOW sea level and thus affected directly by sea water. One theory is that the WAIS broke up about 100,000 years ago and overnight increase world wide sea levels by 20 feet. The theory is that the ice sheets in the WAIS one day broke up and floated away. Since these are Ice Sheets NOT ice Shelves the water they are made up is NOT displaced by the ice the Ice Sheet are made up. The Arctic is a huge ice SHELF, and as such floating on water. Thus whatever water that is in the Ice Shelf is displaced by the ICe Shelf by the mere act of displacing such water as it floats on top of the water. Ice SHEETS on the other hand are grounded ON LAND. As such they may be displacing some water, but most of the water in the Ice Sheet is NOT displacing ANY water and as such once an Ice Sheet breaks up and starts to Float, it will then displace the same amount of water that it is made up of, increasing world wide sea level by 20 feet.

[CatholicEdHead]

10. Well it is fall after all

:P

[Crayson]

11. Probably not RIGHT NOW

Currently it's spring in Antarctica (South Pole) and ice is probably melting there whereas it's growing back in the Arctic (North Pole).

[lovuian]

4. Mother Nature is going to kick some serious butt

Scientists know

the Earth as we know it is changing

[Lisa]

5. Bush: "Oh goody, it'll expose all the oil reserves!"

Really -- that's what some folks are saying about this. Personally I'm still reeling, over the types of impacts (environmental, social, political) that the loss of much of the Arctic's snow and ice cover will do to Canada. Al Gore gets it -- he was in town on the weekend, trying to warn people about what a big news story this is.

[Mabus]

6. It's unnerving to me too.

Once again, the melting is occurring faster than previously thought. That's not good news.

[CHIMO]

9. And What

Else should one expect when we enter into a new environment where we don't have the past history to create a model.

Some of my acquaintances say, well we won't be here to see it. Well how do you know.

What is not being looked at in the media yet is the expectation that there will be severe changes in the climate. We don't know how these changes will play out. We take the change and project that into the future. But if we don't have the model. Then we have to scratch our heads and head back to the drawing board.

Ice is an enormous heat sink and as it disappears the sink is gone.

Never mind the oceans and waters becoming more acidic or low pressures changing because of more moisture in the air. We don't know what will happen.

But we do know that it will change. We do know that there will be changes in floods, drought, pestilence and floods to just mention a few.

So if the model has a divisor near zero we may never be able to prove it.