STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 8

[UpInArms]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 8

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 378 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2547 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2269 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE =2230
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES


AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 7, 2008

Dow... 12,827.49 up 27.31 (0.21%)
Nasdaq... 2,499.46 down 5.19 (0.21%)
S&P 500... 1,416.18 up 4.55 (0.32%)
10-Yr Bond...33.839% up 0.015
Gold future... $859.30





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie



PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions


(UIA - just filling in for Ozy!)

Read more: du

[UpInArms]

1. Today's WrapUp by Tony Allison

Retirement at Risk

At the risk of beating the proverbial dead horse, I start a fresh new year with another reminder for those within shouting distance of retirement: keep your eyes on the prize! There are many risks lurking that can negatively affect your hopes and dreams for an idyllic retirement. Even for those already in retirement, there are risks to be aware of and actions to be considered. Retirement pitfalls are a common theme these days, but for most Americans they cannot be discussed often enough or emphasized loudly enough. Unfortunately, Wall Street usually addresses the subject by showing vibrant seniors strolling hand-in-hand along deserted beaches. The (not so subtle) message: invest in our products and you too will enjoy a prosperous, stress-free retirement. This is not very helpful as an educational tool, but I’m sure the ad campaigns sell mutual funds and annuities quite nicely.

Survival Mode for many Boomers

While many Americans are in good shape for retirement, the vast majority appears woefully unprepared. And even those with millions set aside for retirement will have to deal with specific retirement risks that could derail their best-laid plans.

It is clear to most Baby Boomers that they need to save and invest more and spend less. But for many this is easier said than done. Many boomers still have children at home and elderly parents to look after. And decades of negligible real income growth have taken a toll as well. Inflation has hit hard on the middle class. The costs of health care, education, food, housing, insurance and energy have soared well beyond the growth in wages over the last decade. Many Americans approaching retirement age are living in paycheck-to-paycheck survival mode.

Future returns may differ from last 25 years

Many boomers also look at retirement planning as a boring, if not depressing, subject and as something to be ignored if possible. Those who are actively involved in investing for retirement often see the future as an extension of recent history and invest in the same manner. The past 25 years was an era of uncommon prosperity, falling interest rates and mild and short recessions. While the last quarter century featured booming stock and bond markets, it may be unwise to expect similar returns over the next 25 years. If portfolio growth expectations fall short year after year, the retirement plan begins to unravel.

The 76 million Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964 represent about 28% of the population. The leading edge of those 76 million begin to retire this year. Most of them believe their Social Security, Medicare, pensions, 401-k and IRA savings will lead to a smooth transition into retirement. Others have no idea how they will retire, but figure things will work out.

<snip>



...more...

[InkAddict]

24. A Streetcar Named Desire eom

[UpInArms]

2. Oil recovers after three-day fall on economy worry

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080108/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil rebounded on Tuesday after falling nearly 3 percent a day earlier, as the specter of a recession in the United States haunted traders who fear it will diminish oil demand from the world's biggest consumer.

U.S. oil rose 55 cents to $95.64 a barrel by 1:19 a.m. EST, recouping some of its $2.82 drop on Monday, a third day of losses after prices hit the $100 mark for the first time last week. London Brent crude rose 62 cents to $95.01.

"The biggest concern in the market now is the possibility of a recession in the U.S.," said Tony Nunan, a manager at Mitsubishi Corp's risk management unit.

"Right now, there seems to be a 50-50 chance that it would happen and even if it doesn't, the fear that it might is enough to spook the market."

The retreat in prices came after a U.S. report last week showed the nation's unemployment rate rose to 5 percent in December, its highest in more than two years.

Fuelling bearish sentiment, warmer temperatures have been forecast in the U.S. Northeast, the nation's biggest heating oil market, and is expected to depress demand to 40 percent below normal levels, the National Weather Service said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Mortgage job losses topped 86,000 in 2007: study

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N), New Century Financial Corp (NEWCQ.PK) and other mortgage lenders cut 86,071 jobs last year as the U.S. housing market deteriorated, data released Monday show.

California was hit hardest by the cuts, with a net loss of 15,933 mortgage jobs, or 18.5 percent of the nationwide total, according to the data from MortgageDaily.com.

The state is home to Countrywide, which is based in Calabasas, as well as to New Century, an Irvine-based subprime mortgage lender that filed for bankruptcy protection in April.

Mortgage lenders have slashed staffing as losses have mounted from a surge in customer defaults. Falling housing prices and tighter credit markets have left thousands of homeowners unable to refinance their mortgages and stay in their homes.

Many mortgage experts expect further job losses in 2008 as rates on hundreds of thousands of adjustable-rate mortgages reset higher, though MortgageDaily.com publisher Sam Garcia expects the pace of layoffs to slow.

Countrywide made the most job cuts in 2007, eliminating a net 11,665 jobs, Dallas-based MortgageDaily.com said.

Other cuts totaled 6,628 at American Home Mortgage Investment Corp (AHMIQ.PK), 5,948 at First Magnus Financial Corp, 5,200 at New Century, 4,470 at GMAC LLC's Residential Capital LLC unit, and 3,580 at Washington Mutual Inc (WM.N), MortgageDaily.com said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080107/bs_nm/mortgages_jobs_dc

[UpInArms]

4. Bear Stearns chief to step down: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080108/bs_afp/uspropertybankingcompanybearstearns

NEW YORK (AFP) - The chief executive of investment bank Bear Stearns is to step down after it was sorely stung by the US mortgage market crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

James Cayne, 73, chairman of the firm and its chief executive since 1993, has told the bank's board he plans to give up his role as CEO, the leading financial daily said, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

Cayne has come under fire from shareholders for huge losses in the downturn linked to risky subprime mortgages, which has seen heads roll at the top of other major Wall Street banks including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.

The crisis has made Bear Stearns' shares plummet to a four-year low.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. S&P Set For Worst Performance Since 2002

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20080108/bs_ibd_ibd/20080107feature

With earnings season about to kick off, analysts expect the worst overall decline in almost six years -- even as technology, energy and medical firms shine.

S&P 500 firms' fourth-quarter profits probably fell 9.8% from a year earlier after dropping 4.5% in the third, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

That would be the worst performance since the start of 2002. It's also a sea change from Oct. 1, when analysts forecast an 11.9% gain.

<snip>

"The jobs report is the last arrow in the quiver for the 'no recession' folks," Thomson Financial analyst David Dropsey said. "If there are no jobs, there's no consumer."

Medical groups, seen as relatively recession-proof, generally held up. Health care profits should rise 15%, their best gain in years.

Other U.S. companies -- particularly the big multinationals in the S&P 500 -- are relying on overseas growth and the weak dollar.

...more...

[Nickster]

6. DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3790 LONG DAYS AHHHHHH! :-)

[UpInArms]

9. my goodness!

I'm glad you are awake :D

:blush:

fixed!

[TalkingDog]

13. :--) ???

More like:





My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[UpInArms]

7. Today's reports:

Jan 8 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Nov
Market Expects -0.8%
Last Report 0.6%

Jan 8 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Nov
Briefing.com forecast $8.0B
Market expects $8.5B
Last Report $4.7B

[UpInArms]

18. U.S. Nov. pending home sales index down 2.6%: NAR (expected it to be only -0.8%)

02. U.S. Nov. pending home sales index down 2.6%: NAR
10:00 AM ET, Jan 08, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

63. U.S. Nov. consumer credit up $15.5bln, or 7.5% rate

28. U.S. Nov. non-revolving credit up 5.2% rate
3:00 PM ET, Jan 08, 2008 - 5 hours ago

29. U.S. Nov. credit-card debt up 11.3% rate
3:00 PM ET, Jan 08, 2008 - 5 hours ago

30. U.S. Nov. consumer credit up $15.5bln, or 7.5% rate
3:00 PM ET, Jan 08, 2008 - 5 hours ago

[tekisui]

8. DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3790 LONG DAYS???

NOOO!!!!!

That must be a typo, my calender reads 378 days left for chimpy.

[UpInArms]

10. thanks tekisui!

378 it is!

[AnneD]

17. Morning Marleteers...

:donut: and lurkers. I was listening to the radio today. Not only is the countdown down to 378 but as I was driving in today, they mentioned that today was Elvis Presley's birthday.
I grew up listening to Elvis and it was just one of those things I took for granted-like Luciano Pavarotti or Frank Sinatra or Maria Callas or Nat King Cole. He was so good as to make it seem effortless. And yet once they are gone and you listen to what 'replaces' them, you realize that there is no replacement, it was a gift from God. So today I'll pull out the classics that I love and reminisce, but I'll have a greater appreciate those new diverse gems that are among us like Charlotte Church, Tiger Woods, Bindi Irwin, Jay Greenberg and others too numerous or as yet unknown. I will make it a point to see and appreciate these gems while they are among us and not when they depart.

And for today, I would like to dedicate a theme song for all you folks on the SW thread, a tongue and cheek reference to Government Economic Reports and Wall Street in general......

We're caught in a trap
I can't walk out
Because I love you too much baby

Why can't you see
What you're doing to me
When you don't believe a word I say?

We can't go on together
With suspicious minds
And we can't build our dreams
On suspicious minds

<snip>

Oh let our love survive
Or dry the tears from your eyes
Let's don't let a good thing die

http://www.lyrics007.com/Elvis%20Presley%20Lyrics/Suspicious%20Minds%20Lyrics.html


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.:smoke:

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.089 Change -0.075 (-0.10%)

US Fed: It's Not A Matter Of If They Will Cut, But By How Much...

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Fed__It_s_Not_A_1199796091025.html

US economic data has not fared well as we enter 2008, as last week’s dismal non-farm payrolls reading of 18K and jump in the unemployment rate to a two-year high of 5.00 percent points toward a gloomy scenario: a consumer driven recession. Indeed, the US housing market is still in shambles, oil has touched a record of $100/bbl, and equity markets remain vulnerable. As the Federal Government discusses possible options for “economic stimulus” packages in this all-important election year, there is little doubt the FOMC will move to make monetary policy more accommodative this month. The question is, will it be a 25 or 50bp cut? Fed fund futures are betting on a 68 percent chance of the latter, but if next week’s CPI figures surge – suggesting inflation pressures are steadily building – the markets may move back to pricing in a 25bp cut. Either way, upcoming releases could spark major volatility for the US Dollar, especially as we near the big rate announcement on January 30.

Do you think the Fed will cut by 25bp or 50bp? Join the discussion in the DailyFX Fed Watch Forum.

Yield Spread Analysis 01/02 – 01/08

A spike in risk aversion and sharp declines in the equity markets sent government bonds surging amidst flight-to-safety, subsequently sending yields tumbling. The greatest shift was seen in the US, with 10-year Treasury yields plunging more than 16bp as recession risks mount. Indeed, US NFPs proved to be disappointing while the unemployment rate ticked up to a two-year high of 5.0 percent, and as a result, fed fund futures have moved to price in at least a 25bp rate cut at the end of the month and a 68 percent chance of 50bp cut. US economic data released over the course ahead of the January 30th meeting may shake up these estimates, as Retail Sales and CPI will likely prove to be highly market moving next week.

...more...

Dollar Battle Squares off at 1.4700- Will US Housing Data Resolve the Stalemate?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar_Battle_Squares_off_at_1199789675996.html

A battle of attrition in the currency markets tonight as neither bulls nor bears are able to get much traction and are stymied by unsupportive economic data and lack of clarity on the monetary front on both sides of the Atlantic. The EURUSD raced to a high of 1.4735 in early London trade as a rally in equities helped boost the carry trades and EURJPY in the process, only to give up most of its gains after a disappointing Eurozone Retail Sales number.

Retail sales in the Euro-zone fell -0.5 percent during the month of November, pulling the annual rate down to -1.4 percent - the sharpest drop since record keeping began in 1996. Both food and non-food products contributed to the declines which in retrospect was not surprising given the recent deterioration in consumer confidence gauges. Still, the markets were looking for 0.5% gain and today’s news is hardly seen as supportive of any future rate hike from the ECB. Despite President Trichet’s consistently hawkish rhetoric the ECB will be in no position to tighten monetary policy in Q1 of 2008 if consumer demand remains weak.

Given fresh evidence that the economic slowdown is becoming global in nature, the currency markets therefore find little positive reason to be long euros and the unit’s source of strength will only come from further dollar weakness. To that end, today’s US Pending Home Sales number may prove market moving if it shows a wider than expected decline. Granted, sentiment towards US housing sector is already extremely bearish, but if the data shows no bottom in sight expectations for a 50bp cut from the Fed are likely to increase. On the other hand, if the number shows a better than expected result the greenback may see a mild boost in North American trade.

...more...

[Eugene]

12. KB Home posts $772 million loss

Source: Reuters

KB Home posts $772 million loss
Tue Jan 8, 2008 8:44am EST

CHICAGO (Reuters) - KB Home (KBH.N) posted a quarterly
loss on Tuesday with impairment and abandonment charges
as the U.S. housing market continued its steep decline, and
said it expects 2008 to be another tough year for the
industry.

The No. 5 U.S. home builder, reported a net loss of $772.7
million, or $9.99 per share, for the fourth quarter ended
November 30, compared with a year-earlier loss of $49.6
million, or 64 cents per share.

(Reporting by David Bailey, editing by Dave Zimmerman)

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWNAS585820080108

[NMDemDist2]

14. holy kittens! $10 a share!!??!!

:wow:

[Systematic Chaos]

16. Idiot bastards only did it to themselves, really.

I'm not an economist, but I'm sure the shit not "surprised", either. :eyes:

[Warpy]

20. Around here, it's Pulte

Those are the bastards who overbuilt the McMansion neighborhoods on the edge of town for the speculation market. Most of those areas are a third empty, the houses never lived in and now not maintained. I have to feel sorry for the folks who thought they were buying their dream houses, only to have the area turn into an instant slum thanks to owners who walked away from the properties when the ARM reset and they couldn't sell.

I hope a lot of those overbuilders and speculators lose it all, although tops on my list is Bob Perry in Texas. You remember him, the charmer who gave the Smear Boat boys their seed money in 2004 because he was sick of getting sued by dissatisfied customers unfortunate enough to live in what he'd built.

The problem is that nobody's going to get out unhurt because those laundered loans went all through the economy as "assets" picked up by just about every corporation out there to fatten the bottom line.

Beware the deregulators, for they shall allow in the thieves.

[DemReadingDU]

15. BBC: Recession in the US 'has arrived'

1/8/08 The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.

more...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7176255.stm

another thread with this article...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3129013


another article
1/7/08 Recession has arrived, say analysts

The U.S. economy is in a recession, a Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. economist wrote in a research note to clients this morning.
"Friday's economic report confirmed our suspicions that the economy was transitioning into an official recession towards the end of the year," Mr. Rosenberg wrote.

The report was released after the Department of Commerce said on Friday that the economy added only 18,000 new jobs in December and the unemployment rate increased to 5.0%, up from a 4.7% reading in November.

"At no time in the past 60 years has the unemployment rate risen 0.60% from the cycle low without the economy slipping into recession, and here we now have the jobless rate hitting 5% percent in December versus the March trough of 4.4%," Mr. Rosenberg wrote.

Morgan Stanley economists Richard Berner and David Greenlaw today also opined that the economy is in a recession, according to published reports.

"The key question now is how deep the recession will be and how long it will last," Mr. Berner and Mr. Greenlaw wrote.

a bit more...
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080107/REG/962978736

[Warpy]

21. It arrived over 7 years ago for most of us

and the BBC is only just noticing?

Funny how you can make 90% of a population disappear.

[DemReadingDU]

23. BBC & other foreign countries reporting more than U.S.

BBC, UK, Netherlands, Australia, Malaysia, India

Not much being reported in U.S. about our recession. Maybe there is something on TV?


edit to add from the Telegraph

1/8/08 The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Merrill, itself one of Wall Street's biggest casualties of the sub-prime crisis, is the first major bank to declare that a recession in the world's biggest economy is now underway.

more...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/07/bcnuseco107.xml

[roamer65]

49. Yup...welcome to the inflationary recession of 2008.

I expect the Fed to open the floodgates of money very soon. THey're going to try to print their way out of this and fudge the inflation numbers.

[Roland99]

19. 10:05am - Ponies for all!

Dow 12,890.89 +63.40
Nasdaq 2,522.48 +23.02
S&P 500 1,429.01 +12.83
Oil $97.05 $1.96
Gold $876.10 $14.10
10 YR 3.88% 0.04

[Roland99]

22. 11:50am - Um, well. Seems these ponies... bite!

Dow 12,765.71 -61.78
Nasdaq 2,485.91 -13.55
S&P 500 1,411.19 -4.99
10 YR 3.84% +0.01
Oil $96.70 $1.61
Gold $877.50 $15.50

[AnneD]

25. Reminds me of the title....

of that book...Shoot Lower Boys, I think They're Riding Shetlands. I think folks are feeling the first cold splash of the water of reality.

[Roland99]

27. 3:03pm - Here's some of that reality for ya, Anne. The ponies are stampeding.

Dow 12,719.46 -108.03
Nasdaq 2,483.45 -16.01
S&P 500 1,406.75 -9.43
10 YR 3.84% 0.00
Oil $96.40 $1.31
Gold $880.30 $18.30

[Barrett808]

26. No comment on the Chuck Asay cartoon?

He is, after all, one of the few conservative cartoonists that gets national syndication...

[cosmicdot]

28. re those road signs

some may not know that they do exist, at least, in southern California



A silhouette of a mother, father and little girl running, their bodies leaning forward as if into the wind. The child's pigtails fly behind her as the family dashes across a stark yellow background, accompanied by one word: CAUTION ... to warn drivers they might encounter people frantically darting across lanes of traffic as they try to evade border security.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050410/news_1n10signs.html

[TalkingDog]

54. I finally figured it out after several check ins during the day.

I thought "Oh, How nice, the Democrats think that kids are future voters and are keeping them safe."

Once I figured it out, I thought "Is that supposed to be insulting?"

I'm easily confused by unclear visual/conceptual information. I finally got the "Bud Light" commercials where they guy asks for a light and something other than getting a beer happens. It was the one where the flaming arrow thunks into the post by his head. I was like...OH. He wanted a Lite beer, but he got a LIGHT!

That series of commercials was on for several years prior and that particular one was one of the last made.

And Cheese does not go Crunch. That's why Cheetos uses it to explain how cheesy their food stuff is.... in case you were wondering.

Really, I developed normally and at no point was I ever dropped on my head.

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[AnneD]

71. I thought the same thing....

gee-when did caring for each other as human beings become a bad thing. I must have gone to the rest room when that happened.

[Ghost Dog]

29. ¡Fuck me! I temporallily have internet contact! Allow me to comment:

Bankers' pay is deeply flawed

By Raghuram Rajan 2 hours, 4 minutes ago

Banks have recently been acknowledging enormous losses, yet those losses are barely reflected in employee compensation. For example, Morgan Stanley (AMEX:MWD) announced a $9.4bn charge-off in the fourth quarter and at the same time increased its bonus pool by 18 per cent. The justification was that many employees had a banner year and their compensation should not be held hostage to mistakes that were made in the subprime market. The chief executive, John Mack, however, assumed some responsibility and agreed to take no bonus this year - although he got a $40m payout last year.
ADVERTISEMENT

Even so, most readers would suspect something is not right here. Indeed, compensation practices in the financial sector are deeply flawed and probably contributed to the ongoing crisis.

The typical manager of financial assets generates returns based on the systematic risk he takes - the so-called beta risk - and the value his abilities contribute to the investment process - his so-called alpha. Shareholders in asset management firms, such as commercial banks, investment banks and private equity or insurance companies are unlikely to pay the manager much for returns from beta risk. For example, if the shareholder wants exposure to large traded US stocks she can get the returns associated with that risk simply by investing in the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, for which she pays a fraction of a per cent in fees. What the shareholder will really pay for is if the manager beats the S&P 500 index regularly, that is, generates excess returns while not taking more risks. Hence they will pay for alpha.

In reality, there are only a few sources of alpha for investment managers. One of them comes from having truly special abilities in identifying undervalued financial assets. Warren Buffett, the US billionaire investor, certainly has it, yet this special ability is, by definition, rare.

A second source of alpha is from what one might call activism. This means using financial resources to create, or obtain control over, real assets and to use that control to change the payout obtained on the financial investment. A venture capitalist who transforms an inventor, a garage and an idea into a fully fledged, profitable and professionally managed corporation creates alpha.

A third source of alpha is financial entrepreneurship or engineering - creating securities or cash flow streams that appeal to particular investors or tastes. As long as the investment manager does not create securities that exploit investor weaknesses or ignorance (and there is unfortunately too much of that), this sort of alpha is also beneficial, but it requires constant innovation.

Alpha is quite hard to generate since most ways of doing so depend on the investment manager possessing unique abilities - to pick stocks, identify weaknesses in management and remedy them, or undertake financial innovation. Such abilities are rare. How then can untalented investment managers justify their pay? Unfortunately, all too often it is by creating fake alpha - appearing to create excess returns but in fact taking on hidden tail risks, which produce a steady positive return most of the time as compensation for a rare, very negative, return.

For example, an investment manager who bought AAA-rated tranches of collateralised debt obligations (CDO) in the past generated a return of 50 to 60 basis points higher than a similar AAA-rated corporate bond. That "excess" return was in fact compens­ation for the "tail" risk that the CDO would default, a risk that was no doubt perceived as small when the housing market was rollicking along, but which was not zero. If all the manager had disclosed was the high rating of his investment portfolio he would have looked like a genius, making money without additional risk, even more so if he multiplied his "excess" return by leverage. Similarly, the management of Northern Rock followed the old strategy of taking on tail risk, borrowing short and lending long and praying that the unlikely event of a liquidity shortage never materialised. All these strategies essentially earn the manager a premium in normal times for taking on beta risk that materialises only infrequently. These premiums are not alpha, since they are wiped out when the risk materialises.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080108/bs_ft/fto010820081325161100;_ylt=AijFnRRP9ERTNUOHSsylXQ_2ULEF

[Ghost Dog]

31. Also: Kenya: IMF Warns of Economic Doom

The Nation (Nairobi)

7 January 2008
Posted to the web 7 January 2008

Jeff Otieno
Nairobi

The International Monetary Fund Sunday warned that Kenya was facing an economic catastrophe if the current post-general election standoff is not addressed.

IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn also said the institution was concerned that supply disruptions due to violence in the country was affecting other countries in the region.

Some of the countries that are already feeling the pinch of the post-election violence are Uganda and Rwanda which heavily depend on the port of Mombasa for imports like petroleum, machinery and other products.

As a growing regional economic hub, Kenya is the transit point for one quarter of the GDP of Uganda and Rwanda, and one third that of Burundi.

"I very much hope that the political leaders in Kenya will quickly and peacefully resolve the current dispute over the election results.

This would open the way to further progress toward economic prosperity which could benefit all Kenyans," said Mr Strauss-Kahn.

/... http://allafrica.com/stories/200801070014.html

[AnneD]

34. Good to see you post...

thought you might be 'sleeping with the fish'....

[Ghost Dog]

40. .

:-)
Getting used to much frustration...

[AnneD]

30. Realtors predict U.S. home sale rebound later this year

WASHINGTON — A trade group for real estate agents predicted today that the pace of U.S. home sales will pick up significantly in the second half of 2008, bringing total sales for the year marginally higher than in 2007.

<snip>

Final results for U.S. existing home sales in 2007 — to be released later this month — are expected to be down 12.7 percent from 6.48 million in 2006, the group said.

<snip>

"The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain," Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist, said in a statement. "A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."

<he really gets paid for this? :shrug:>

In addition, the group did not anticipate 2007's severe housing market downturn. A year ago, it was predicting more than 6.4 million existing home sales — about 760,000 more than actually happened.


http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5436548.html

I really think this belongs up there with the toons myself. I read the title and thought of that old song-I'm Forever blowing bubbles.:spray:

[Robbien]

32. I saw a couple of similiar articles earlier

and thought the same as you. But then thought, really what else can these realtors say? If they don't keep the hype going, their business goes up in smoke for a year or two or three.

[Demeter]

59. Really, What Else Could the Realtors Say?

They want to sell houses. That's their reason for living, and source of income. They're not going to say,"Forget it folks, get three generations together in the largest house among you and sit it out for ten years!"

[AnneD]

33. Ford to double Indian production, change strategy

NEW DELHI — Ford Motor Co. will double production in India with a $500 million investment and begin making an inexpensive car, the U.S. automaker said today, attempting to boost market share in a booming economy.

As rising middle class incomes drive demand for cars in India, automakers are rushing with plans to make inexpensive compact hatchbacks that dominate the Indian roads.

The Indian market is dominated by Japan's Suzuki Motor Corp., South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. and homegrown Tata Motors Ltd., all of which have strong offerings in the small car segment. Tata plans to unveil a $2,500 car on Thursday.

A significant part of Ford's investment will go into developing new products, including a new small car, within two years and an engine manufacturing facility by 2010, the company said in a statement.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5436213.html

The sun sets in Detroit and rises in Chennai (Madras).

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

35. Bloodbath.

[AnneD]

37. Only people from ....

honourable families do that. Most of these clowns HAVE no honour.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

36. 12,648?

Oh, my!

[Roland99]

38. 3:43pm - Lower supports are being blown away

Dow 12,661.25 -166.24
Nasdaq 2,499.46 -5.19
S&P 500 1,399.38 -16.80
10 YR 3.84% 0.00
Oil $96.33 $1.24
Gold $880.30 $18.30



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sp-dow-stand-treacherously-close/story.aspx?guid=%7BE4CA1715%2D159D%2D42B3%2DBD29%2DD8041AEEC5FF%7D

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is also on shaky footing, but the blue-chip barometer hasn't yet broken down completely.

With last week's losses, the Dow sold off from a three-month downtrend, violating its major moving averages.

Again, the Dow bottomed Monday at 12,733 -- just 10 points under major support -- before recovering, rising modestly to close at 12,827.

A decisive break under the 12,743 November closing low would likely signal a primary trendshift.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

39. *

[Roland99]

41. 3:54pm - LOOKOUT BELOW!!

Dow 12,612.40 -215.09
Nasdaq 2,446.95 -52.51
S&P 500 1,392.68 -23.50
10 YR 3.84% 0.00
Oil $96.33 $1.24
Gold $880.30 $18.30

That is UG-LEE!!


3:58pm

Dow 12,566.14 -261.35
Nasdaq 2,441.57 -57.89
S&P 500 1,388.30 -27.88



:wow:

[Robbien]

43. How the heck did this happen

It was a very uninteresting day. Up around fifty, then down hovering around zero, then down fifty, then hovering around zero.

Now a bloodbath. Wha??????

[Roland99]

44. Perhaps the rumors that Countrywide was going to file bankruptcy?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/countrywide-says-its-not-filing/story.aspx?guid=%7B031584BE%2D4C31%2D4A0A%2D92AC%2D363856CC888F%7D

[Robbien]

48. CNBC is screaming AT&T right now

the web has this on it

AT&T (T - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) is feeling the pinch as consumer spending dips amid hotter competition in its core phone business.

The nation's largest telco said it is seeing "softness" in its consumer business, while business services remain stable. The comments came during a presentation by CEO Randall Stephenson at Citi's Media and Technology Conference in Phoenix Tuesday.

The news blindsided investors, who quickly sent AT&T shares down 10%.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/att-rings-alarm-bells/newsanalysis/techtelecom/10397643.html?puc=_googlen?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

AT&T stopped cheerleading.

[JNelson6563]

42. Shiny, pretty gold!

Oh great joy and delight! :toast:

Julie

[roamer65]

50. Gold is certainly the "Anti-dollar" right now.

If one wants to preserve some of their wealth right now, I would recommend buying some.

[Roland99]

45. A bloodletting at the close

Dow 12,589.07 -238.42
Nasdaq 2,440.51 -58.95
S&P 500 1,390.18 -26.00
10 YR 3.84% 0.00
Oil $96.33 $1.24
Gold $880.30 $18.30

DJIA and S&P four-month lows obliterated.

Just might start getting really ugly now.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

47. :-O

[TalkingDog]

53. Nice.

*golf clap*



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[TalkingDog]

56. Well, according to my friend in the market (who sold most of his paper in

Autumn) this.... is. not. good.

He says he spent most of Saturday doing the numbers and there are a couple of (what did he call them....?) demarcations, for lack of long-term memory, that will signal the potential for a greater collapse. Today sounds like one of them. It has to do with parallel lines that a series of trades goes on in that boundry them.

Somebody upthread called it breaking the supports, but that wasn't the term he used.

Anyway. I'll be interested to see how these new parameters play out with the Protectors of Plunge (and Plunder)



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[DemReadingDU]

57. paper?

stocks, bonds?

commercial paper?



:shrug:

[TalkingDog]

62. Stocks. He calls it paper.

He's been doing trading as long as I've known him and he's been fairly prescient. Basically mananging his portfolio is his day job.

He's the reason I started lurking on these threads coupla years ago. I just wanted to have some point of reference for what he was saying.

He is/was trading currency in Asia. But obviously understand that we're all mountain climbers shackled to each other. If one goes......



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Warpy]

69. I'm keeping my paper for now

because although the face value has dropped since August, the stuff is still producing the income I'm living on.

Anybody who buys the sort of stocks that expect you to be content with inflation in face value only is going to be quite disappointed over the next 5 years at least. People who buy the ones that pay dividends won't be.

[UpInArms]

65. blather at the end

4:10 pm : It was another whipsaw day of trading on Tuesday, and its ending did not please the bulls. The stock market closed with a large loss, at its session lows, on renewed credit and economic concerns.

Stocks started the day modestly higher and drifted upward until renewed credit concerns sent the market sharply lower.

Several factors, all hitting the wires around the same time, fueled the credit concerns. Playing a large role was an unsubstantiated rumor that Countrywide (CFC 5.57, -2.07) is preparing to file bankruptcy as soon as this week, according to Bloomberg.com.

Meanwhile, bond insurers got hit after reports indicated Morgan Stanley cut its bond insurers profit outlook. MBIA (MBI 13.46, -4.16) and Ambac (ABK 19.59, -3.89) shed 22% and 17% respectively.

Moody's downgraded 46 Bear Stearns (BSC 71.32, -4.93) tranches backed by Alt-A Mortgage loans. Moody's also placed National City's (NCC 14.25, -0.94) credit rating under review for possible downgrade.

Stocks then rebounded into positive territory after Countrywide denied the bankruptcy rumors. The positive sentiment was short-lived, however, as statements from AT&T (T 39.13, -1.90) brought economic concerns back to the forefront.

AT&T's CEO said the company is disconnecting more home phone and broadband Internet customers for failing to pay their bills, according to Bloomberg.com. The CEO said the company is experiencing "softness" in its broadband and phone line businesses due to slowing economic growth. The news sent the company's shares and the overall stock market sharply lower.

Nine of the ten sectors finished in negative territory. Telecom (-4.8%) was the main laggard, due to comments made by AT&T's CEO. Financials (-3.7%) were also a laggard.

Healthcare (+0.8%) was the sole sector to finish with a gain. The sector is typically considered a safe-haven during an economic downturn.

In commodity trading, crude oil (+1.1% to $96.15) rebounded following its steep decline yesterday. Gold (+2.1% to $880.20) surpassed its all-time high of $873 that was reached in 1980. DJ30 -238.42 NASDAQ -58.95 SP500 -26.00 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2090/928/2.43 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1842/1299/+1.53 bln

3:30 pm : The stock market continues to decline as we head into the final half-hour of trade. The comments made by AT&T's (T 38.07, -2.96) CEO fueled broad-based selling pressure.

AT&T's CEO said the company is disconnecting more home phone and broadband Internet customers for failing to pay their bills, according to Bloomberg.com. Traders are fearful that this may be a sign of recession. The telecom sector is currently down 6.7%, after being down more than 7%. It was in positive territory prior to the report.

Only three sectors remain in the green, and all are considered defensive. Financials are now down 3%.DJ30 -164.16 NASDAQ -35.06 SP500 -16.78 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1931/1070/1.97 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1542/1589/1.20 bln

[Roland99]

67. Hmm...Countrywide denying heavily the BK rumors. Wonder if any execs will dump stocks?

[Ghost Dog]

46. Maybe I'm leaving Cohen behind. I'm listening to 60's Dylan now:

Its All Over Now Baby Blue
Byrds

##of the song. You may only use this file for private study, scholarship, or ###See http://www.olga.net/faq/ for more information. #


#Subject: b/byrds/its_all_over_now_baby_blue.crd#From: [e-mail]#The Byrds It's All Over Now Baby Blue written by Bob Dylan##
E B A E
You better go now, take what you want you think will l ast
B A E
But if there something you wish to keep b etter grab it f ast
F#m A E
Yonder stands your orphan with his gun
F#m A E
Crying like a fire in the sun
C#m * F#m
Look out the saints are coming through
A E
And it's all over now, Baby Blue.
B A E
The highway is for gamblers, better use your sense.
B A E
Take what you have gathered from coincide nce.
F#m A E
The empty-handed painter from your streets
F#m A E
Is d rawing crazy patterns on your sheets.
C#m * F#m
The sky, too, is folding under you
A E
And it's all over now, Baby Blue.
SOLO
B A E
All your seasick sailors, they are going h ome.
B A E
Your empty handed armies, they're are going home.
F#m A E
Your lover who just w alked out your door
F#m A E
Has t aken all his blankets from the floor.
C#m F#m
The carpet, too, is moving under you
A E
And it's all over now, Baby Blue.
A E
And it's all over now, Baby Blue.
>From The Never Before CD
The Byrds It's All Over Now Baby Blue written by Bob Dylan
Easy Rider Version
D C G
You better leave , take what you need you think will l ast
D C G
But if there something you wish to keep you better grab it fast
Am C G
Yonder stands your orphan with his gun
Am C G
Crying like a fire in the s un
Em D
Look out the saints are coming through
Am C Am D
And it's all over n ow i t's all over now
Am C D G
It's all over now, Baby B lue.
D C G
The highway is for gamblers, you better use your sense.
D C G
Take what you have gathered from coincide nce.
Am C G
The empty-handed painter from your streets
Am C G
Is d rawing crazy patterns on your sheets.
Em D
The sky, too, is folding under you
Am C Am D
And it's all over n ow i t's all over now
Am C D G
It's all over now, Baby Bl ue.
D C G
All your seasick sailors, they are rowing home.
D C G
All Your reindeer armies, they're are going home.
Am C G
Your lover who j ust walked out the d oor
Am C G
Has t aken all your blankets from the floor.
Em D
The carpet, too, is moving under you
Am C Am D
And it's all over n ow i t's all over now^¿
Am C D G
It's all over now, Baby Bl ue.

[Ghost Dog]

51. Forgotten Link:

http://www.chordie.com/chord.pere/www.guitartabs.cc/fetchfile.php?fileid=8222187

[54anickel]

66. ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E06SoECIp1U

:hi:

on edit - I'm a Van Morrison fan myself...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38yZWjTs5TM&feature=related

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

52. Btw, worst toon ever.

Horseshit.

[Barrett808]

55. That's Chuck Asay for ya

The Conservative™ cartoonist.

[UpInArms]

64. so very sorry

that what happens when you get a second-tier sub to do the job of the great Oz -

we shall all be ecstatic when Ozy returns to the land of the ether

:hi:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

70. Yeah. Who is that jerk filling in for Ozy?

:D

[JNelson6563]

58. Yikes! What in the hell happened???

:shrug:

Of course in the morning Steve Liesman and the rest of the gang at CNBC (sans the Great Santelli) will tell me all about how this horror is actually a sign of strength and other good things but man, oh man! This is bloody!

Julie

[ozone_man]

60. Entering a recession?

I read a BBC article today suggesting that we are in a recession already, which doesn't surprise me a bit. I never thought we left it.

Also, we broke one critical point of support. If the next one breaks, the bear market is confirmed.

Or maybe it has something to do with HC not doing so well in NH? :shrug:

I'm sure the talking heads will come up with a reason.

[lovuian]

61. Depression the American consumer is tapped out

this is what NWO wanted and they got it

Dollar is down
Debt is up
Jobless report up and climbing
I'm betting joblessness is in the double digits
Housing crash
Iraq a bottomless pit
Stagflation
Looming Iran war and low yield nuclear attacks on the horizon

the rest of the world is going to catch our cold and that is really what they wanted to pressure China
its time for Shock and Awe

the anger is going to grow and grow and all these crooks will need to be put in jail
and Hospitals will be going bankrupt for millions more will be uninsured

[Warpy]

68. A lot of the crooks have already fled to enclaves offshore

like Roatan Island. Those are the ones with the platinum parachutes who took the boodle out of the country and I hope they stashed it in the Caymans, where it is most likely to become "misplaced."

The ones left will be lucky to escape firing squads.