STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday January 14

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday January 14, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 372 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2553 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2275 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2236
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 11, 2008

Dow... 12,606.30 -246.79 (-1.92%)
Nasdaq... 2,439.94 -48.58 (-1.95%)
S&P 500... 1,401.02 -19.31 (-1.36%)
Gold future... 897.70 +4.10 (+0.46%)
30-Year Bond 4.39% -0.05 (-1.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.81% -0.08 (-1.98%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: The Dow Theory Proves Correct

BY TIM W. WOOD

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermint reports today

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rises above $93 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Monday as traders weighed increasing geopolitical tension in the Middle East against worries that a possible U.S. recession would curb oil demand.

President George W. Bush on Sunday called Iran "the world's leading state sponsor of terror" while he was on a visit to Abu Dhabi. Bush said Iran funds militant groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad and sends arms to the Taliban in Afghanistan and Shiite extremists in Iraq. Iran's foreign minister responded by calling for an end to what he called U.S. meddling.

Iran is the second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — which supplies 40 percent of the world's daily oil needs — and tension between any OPEC member and the West usually raises concerns about the flow of oil supplies.
....

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 46 cents to $93.15 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

The February contract fell $1.02 to settle at $92.69 a barrel Friday, when energy investors were focused on U.S. jobs reports that suggest the economy is struggling to make headway against the challenges posed by a troubled housing market and high oil prices.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Citigroup could write down up to $24 billion: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc. (C.N) could make as much as $24 billion in writedowns and lay off 20,000 workers as part of a plan to cut costs and boost capital, CNBC said on its Website in a report dated Sunday.

The report said the plans will be unveiled on Tuesday, when it reports its fourth-quarter results.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080114/bs_nm/citigroup_cnbc_dc

[ozymandius]

5. Retail in a state of "anarchy" as consumers retreat

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. chain stores, reeling from the slowest holiday shopping season in five years, got some more bad news on Sunday: 2008 will not be any better and could see changes that may shift the retail playing field forever.

As the National Retail Federation kicked off its annual convention in New York, two retail consultants offered negative outlooks for the U.S. retail industry, which has seen consumers pull back amid higher gasoline and food prices, a credit crunch and a prolonged housing market decline.

"It's anarchy," said Wendy Liebmann, chief executive of WSL Strategic Retail, frequently repeating the word she used to sum up the latest results of her company's bi-annual shopper study.
....

Liebmann said most shoppers were making fewer weekly shopping trips and spending significantly less on discretionary items such as home appliances and decor, fashion accessories, electronics, perfume, computers and software.

The only two categories getting a larger share of consumers' wallets are food and pet supplies, Liebmann said, noting however, that food prices have increased.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080113/bs_nm/usa_retail_outlook_dc

[ozymandius]

10. Slow spending to slam retailers (good chart)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retail sales in 2008 will suffer their weakest pace of growth in six years as Americans struggle with rising unemployment, worsening housing and credit market conditions and rising food and energy costs in the months ahead, according to a new industry forecast released Monday.

The National Retail Federation (NRF), in its annual economic outlook, said it expects full-year sales this year to grow 3.5 percent, the slowest increase since 2002 when sales grew 3 percent.



http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/14/news/economy/nrf_2008outlook/index.htm

[Trailrider1951]

16. Yeah, people are spending too much on food and gas

not to mention rent increases so the landlord can afford food and gas....:eyes:

[burf]

18. We just got a letter

saying our electric rates were going up.

[spotbird]

39. Is that number adjusted for inflation?

If not, there is a real decline in spending. Even the official, fake, inflation number is more than 4%, isn't it?

[Demeter]

40. Did You SEE That? They Mentioned UNEMPLOYMENT!

Somebody fan me.

[UpInArms]

24. Retailers seen closing stores, paring growth

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/retail_nrf_closings_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. retailers will close stores and reduce square-footage growth plans this year to offset slowing sales, slumping stock prices, a saturated market and a penny conscious shopper, analysts said on Sunday.

"We've seen about 25,000 new stores open in our universe -- publicly traded specialty retailers -- between 2000 and 2007," said Brian Tunick, a J.P. Morgan analyst who covers specialty retailers, speaking at the National Retail Federation's annual conference.

"There's a lot of (retailers) out there that are over-stored right now," he said.

The NRF conference is taking place as economists debate whether the economy is in or near a recession. Retailers' stock prices have taken a hit as investors fret that consumer spending will falter amid the uncertain environment.

While the year has barely begun, some retailers have already announced plans to close stores.

Earlier this month, apparel retailer Talbots Inc (TLB.N) said it would exit its Talbots Kids and Mens lines, while Pacific Sunwear of California Inc (PSUN.O) said it would close its struggling chain of 154 demo stores, which sell urban inspired clothing.

...more...

[loudsue]

69. It NEVER occurs to these dimwits that their stores, not the consumer, is

about 90% of the problem. I've had to walk out of 5 of the leading department stores during this past CHRISTMAS season because there was NOBODY at the register. They have cut back on employees so much in order to fund the CEO's HUGE salaries, and dollars that would be spent there end up on the internet.

Besides that, the stores are charging $75 for a t-shirt type blouse made in China for 50-cents. Seems that the powers that be have decided that everyone will only wear t-shirts. And they don't care how flimsy the fabric is. All the fabric looks like it's already been through 5 years of weekly washings, it's so threadbare.

The quality of the service and merchandise is deplorable. These CEOs are spending too much time in China, thinking that is how all of us peasants want to live.

They're clueless.

[Demeter]

72. That's Inflation, Stagflation Whatever You Want to Call It

We are turning into the Soviet Union. Our economy is broken.

[loudsue]

74. It IS broken, you're absolutely correct.

Any time capitalism is not heavily controlled by a strong government body, the economy will break. Currently, the republicans and complicit dems have broken our government. So there is no government body to control the capitalism.

[ozymandius]

6. Fed unlikley to cut rates before next meeting: WSJ

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates before its next scheduled meeting in late January but may consider doing so if the outlook deteriorates sharply before then, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

The article said the Fed is likely to keep rates on hold until then because last week's speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has already recalibrated market expectations towards a more aggressive half-point cut to 3.75 percent.

"But that could change if the outlook worsens sharply in coming days," the article said, without citing sources.

The Fed is seen slashing rates by a half-point at its two-day meeting ending on January 30 after Bernanke gave a downbeat assessment of the economy last Thursday and said the central bank was ready to take "substantive additional action."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080114/bs_nm/usa_fed_wsj_dc

[ozymandius]

7. Gold soars on economy woes, global stocks limp along

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold soared to record highs above $900 an ounce on Monday as equities struggled for gains and the dollar fell.

Worries about the slowing global economy and the chances of recession in the United States dominated markets, with focus on a likely interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the start of fourth quarter earnings seasons for U.S. companies.
.....

Poor economic data and lingering worries about inflation, meanwhile, have driven investors into gold and other precious metals. Spot gold hit a record high of $908.15 an ounce.

Safe-haven buying also pushed platinum to a record high of $1,578 an ounce and silver rallied to its highest in 27 years at $16.55 an ounce.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080114/bs_nm/markets_global_dc

[ozymandius]

8. Kuwaitis to invest up to 3 bln usd in Merrill Lynch

LONDON, Jan. 14, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Merrill Lynch is seeking about 4 bln usd in a capital raising, with the Kuwait Investment Authority expected to be a major investor in the deal, the Financial Times reported.

-very short-

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22225667.htm

[ozymandius]

9. You're going to help Bank of America finance its $4 billion buyout of Countrywide.

BofA's awesome Countrywide tax break

Brace yourselves, taxpayers of America. You're going to help Bank of America finance its $4 billion buyout of Countrywide.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Guess who's helping Bank of America pay for its $4.1 billion purchase of Countrywide Financial? Answer: The taxpayers of the United States.

That's because Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), which is solidly profitable, will be able to use some of Countrywide's losses to offset its own taxable income. The tax break could total about half a billion dollars over the first five years, according to an estimate by tax guru Robert Willens, who left Lehman Brothers Friday after a 20-year run and will be in business as Robert Willens LLC starting next week. The losses could be worth considerably more to Bank of America starting in the sixth year, depending on how big Countrywide's losses are when Bank of America formally acquires it.

At this point, of course, no one knows how much in losses Countrywide has run up since the junk mortgage market began souring and defaults accelerated. Countrywide (CFC, Fortune 500) itself probably doesn't know. But it seems almost certain to ultimately be in the billions.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/11/news/companies/sloan_countrywide.fortune/index.htm

[UpInArms]

28. ya know - that is so much bullshit!

If the average person sells their home for a profit - they have to pay tax on that profit. If the average person takes a loss when selling their home - they don't get a "tax break" - they just lose money.

Gawd I am so tired of the corporations jamming their shit down our throats.

:grr:

[DemReadingDU]

34. bonddad: is the Fed behind the B of A/Countrywide Deal ?

Just a thought from the bonddad...

There have been several other stories in the financial press about Countrywide's "lax" lending plans. Countrywide is a lawsuit waiting to happen and Bank of America is buying the company? And the CEO says they have performed due diligence on the potential problems? Bullshit. No one buys a walking lawsuit which Countrywide is. Potential suitors would walk away from this deal in a new Yorkk Minute. No company would walk face first into this kind of legal meat grinder unless 1.) they were getting something really good (which B of A isn't) or, they were forced.

more, and a few interesting comments...
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-evidence-feds-are-behind-b-of.html

[Warpy]

41. I'm sure they assured the board of some sort of sweetheart deal

because BoA is reasonably solvent, something other banks and brokerages are not, and Countrywide was just too big to let drown. There would be riots in the streets if mass foreclosures were handed out.

I know the figure that BoA plunked down and it's far short of that $4.1 billion spoken of in here. I can only assume the Fed picked up the rest of the tab, leaving BoA with control but not outright ownership.

I just hope there are a few perp walks for the guys who ran the scam late in the game, giving iffy jumbo mortgages to fruit pickers and bank clerks who had absolutely no way to meet ballooning payments down the line, just to pump the comps and keep empty houses off the books.

I know one thing about BoA and that their auditors are a bunch of rabid pit bulls. Countrywide's books will be gone over very, very carefully.

[ozymandius]

11. Wall Street eyes earnings data this week

NEW YORK - This week's flood of readings on inflation, retail sales and earnings is just what a data-hungry Wall Street has been anxious for.
.....

This week, investors will pore over fourth-quarter results from a stream of banks — Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo & Co. and Washington Mutual Inc., to name a few — and other big names such as Intel Corp., International Business Machines and General Electric Co.

The fourth-quarter numbers, already expected to be disappointing, will be less important than the outlooks the companies give, as investors try to gauge when earnings will rebound. The financial sector will be under particular scrutiny, being the industry that dragged down the rest of the market in 2007, as will technology, which was the Wall Street darling last year.

Meanwhile, the government will release its monthly readings on retail sales, producer prices, consumer prices and home construction; the Federal Reserve comes out with its Beige Book on economic conditions in various parts of the country; and Fed officials will deliver speeches ahead of their Jan. 29-30 meeting on interest rates.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080113/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_week_ahead_3

[ozymandius]

12. Sears Holdings sees big profit shortfall

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Sears Holdings Corp. warned on Monday that fourth-quarter earnings per share may fall as much as 51% from last year's levels.

Hoffman Estates, Ill.-based Sears Holdings warned it's expecting earnings to fall between $2.59 and $3.48 a share for the three months ending Feb. 2, compared to last year's $5.33 a share.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial have been expecting fourth-quarter earnings of $4.43 a share, on average.
The decline comes after a drop in holiday-season sales for both the company's Sears and Kmart chains.

For the nine-week to Jan. 5, Sears' domestic same-store sales fell by 2.8% and Kmart's same-store sales dropped by 4.2%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sears-warns-profit-fourth-quarter/story.aspx?guid=%7B1A0E0C6B%2DF082%2D4F12%2DA298%2D55CEC8D5F800%7D

[ozymandius]

13. U.S. stock futures lower on AmEx, Merrill fears

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures on Friday pointed to a weaker start, even with deal news in the air for financial services, as write-downs for American Express Co. and, reportedly, Merrill Lynch & Co. knocked sentiment.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 44 points to 12,800. Those for the S&P 500 dropped 6.60 points to 1,415.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 6 points to 1,954.75.
......

American Express followed in Capital One's footsteps, warning it will have to take a charge of $440 million before tax in the fourth quarter to cover higher delinquencies and loan write-offs.

The nation's largest brokerage firm, Merrill Lynch is expected to report losses of $15 billion stemming from soured mortgage investments, according to a New York Times report Friday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-lower-american/story.aspx?guid=%7B04A7B34D%2DC69C%2D466B%2DAAB8%2D939A6169E68B%7D&dist=morenews

[Demeter]

14. Good Cartoon!

So nice that the rich and powerful are finally going to share in the suffering....

[ozymandius]

15. Schadenfreude anyone?

Did you read about Tiffany's and Company taking a hit? Previous recent holiday seasons have seen the luxury stores hopping while proletariat outlets limp. Not anymore.

[Warpy]

42. Tiffany's is for CEOs

to buy trinkets for the wife and mistress(es). The truly wealthy pick out raw stones and commission one of a kind settings from well known artists.

They don't want to see their wife's baubles on some CEO's trophy wife at one of those dreadful corporate parties, you know.

CEO pay is still going up, but the job security isn't what it once was. Now when a CEO is disgraced enough to take his platinum parachute, he usually lands in an enclave of the rich and forgotten like Roatan Island off Honduras. They then live in greatly reduced circumstances in pleasure palaces on the sea.

That means the wife and mistress(es) will have to make do with lingerie from Sak's.

[AnneD]

45. Tiffany's has a variety of price levels...

their sales had dropped in the moderate to higher priced. As a spokesman said paraphrasing here-they can have the high end plasma tv or the nice diamond necklace. Last year they could afford both, this year it seemed to be one or the other.

[Robbien]

17. Billionaires List, The 2008 Edition

was recently published and is available to corporate executives. Indexing the 400 Richest Persons in the United States it includes the corporate addresses and corporate telephone numbers of 400 billionaires (every billionaire in the 2007 FORBES 400 is included).

Interestingly, corporate executives and corporate Board of Directors members will find it to be one of the most resourcefull "executive references" in existance.

When you have the "BEN CAMPBELL'S BILLIONAIRES LIST" contacting billionaires is not problem at all. And, its uses are allmost unlimited.

This information is an excellent reference tool for corporate board members, venture capitalists, investment bankers, security brokers, commercial lenders, CFO's, CEO's, COO's, financial planners, investment advisors, acquisition advisors, hedge fund managers, wallstreet types, and even other billionaires.

For more informatiion about the BEN CAMPBELL'S BILLIONAIRES LIST visit the website at URL: www.billionaires.00cash.com

heh

[Demeter]

20. Bet You a Nickel Next Year's List Will Be a Lot Shorter!

[TalkingDog]

23. Why do I get a visual of the Jacobins buying this list...

Then giving it to the Committee?

("Let them eat Nouvelle, it will trim their waistlines")

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[UpInArms]

19. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.522 Change -0.459 (-0.60%)

It's Judgment Time for the US Dollar as Market Prices in 44% Chance for 75bp Cut

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/It_s_Judgment_Time_for_the_1200091214886.html

The number one driver of the US dollar at the moment is interest rates, which is why we continue to focus on how many basis points the Federal Reserve will be shaving off the Fed funds rate at the end of the month. Throughout the past week, interest traders have been increasing their bets for a larger move which has led to widespread dollar weakness. Believe it or not Fed fund futures are now pricing in a close to fifty-fifty probability of a 75bp rate cut. Yesterday they were pricing in only a 50bp rate cut but today, Fed fund traders have gone crazy. As bearish as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may have been yesterday, there is zero chance that they will cut interest rates by 75bp at the end of this month. Although there has been one 75bp rate hike in the past 15 years, the last time that interest rates were reduced by more than 50bp at a single meeting was in 1984, after Paul Volcker had taken interest rates to a high of 20 percent to tame double digit inflation. By raising interest rates as aggressively as he did, Volcker managed to bring inflation down from its peak of 13.5 percent in 1981 to 3.2 percent by 1983. Are we coming off double digit interest rates or even high single digit interest rates for that matter? No. Is it confirmed that we are in a recession? No. If anything, the recent weakness of the US dollar contributes to inflation and the continual rally in gold prices indicates that higher inflation pressure is the bigger problem in the market at the moment. Therefore how could the Fed realistically lower rates by 75bp? A 50bp rate cut would already be overly generous. For the US dollar, Tuesday is judgment day. We are expecting retail sales and producer prices which will give us a glimpse into how desperately the US economy needs a larger rate cut. Although Bank of America’s purchase of Countrywide Financial should have been very positive for US stocks, Merrill Lynch’s $15 billion potential write down reminded traders that the worst of the subprime crisis is not behind us. If retail sales are weak and consumer price growth slow, it will be enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut by half a point. In addition to those numbers, we are also expecting TIC, industrial production, Beige Book, housing starts and the Philly Fed survey, which means that it will definitely be a very volatile week in the currency market.

...more...

Euro Skyrockets as US Fears Increase - Going to Record Highs?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Euro_Skyrockets_as_US_Fears_1200306923563.html

A host of dollar negative rumors swirling about the currency market propelled the EURUSD through the 1.4900 figure on the first trading day of the week. First, a suggestion that the Fed may be forced to enact an emergency intra-meeting rate cut and then speculation that write offs at Citibank would be far steeper than initially thought, all contributed to strong anti-dollar sentiment and sent Asian and European traders flocking to the euro.

After last weeks decidedly dovish outlook from Ben Bernanke the market is beginning to appreciate the fact that the unwind of the credit bubble created by the housing sector may take far longer and cost far more than most participants believed. The decline in asset prices is clearly having a materially negative impact on US consumption, which given the fact that the US consumer comprises 72% of the US economy, could tip it into a recession as early as the first half of this year.

Tomorrow all eyes will be focused on US Advance Retails Sales as traders try to gauge the health of the consumer. Should that number disappoint once again, the dollar could see further weakness. In fact, given the fact that sentiment towards the greenback is so negative, a retest of all time highs in the EURUSD as well as a run through the 1.5000 level appears to be the path of least resistance.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Dollar slides on rate cut prospects

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080114/bs_afp/forexeurope

LONDON (AFP) - The dollar slumped to a near record low against the euro Monday on growing expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month to bolster the battered US economy, dealers said.

In late morning European trading, the euro rocketed to 1.4909 dollars from 1.4775 dollars in New York late on Friday. The European single currency hit a record high of 1.4967 dollars on November 23.

On Monday, the dollar fell to 107.73 yen from 108.81 yen late on Friday.

In commodity trading, the price of gold struck a fresh high of 914.30 dollars an ounce as the yellow metal benefited from the dollar's weakness.

"In some respects, it was a little surprising that the dollar did not succumb more last week given the sizeable reduction in US rate expectations," Calyon economist Daragh Maher said on Monday.

Many traders are banking on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by half a percentage point to 3.75 percent when they convene for a scheduled meeting on January 29-30.

...more...

[TalkingDog]

21. Cross post on S& P Futures Trading. Dropping like the proverbial rock.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2678246


From about 3 am this morning. Oof that's late.

Looks like you guys will have fun today.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[ret5hd]

22. Gold well over $900 and no comments?

[JNelson6563]

35. Gold over $900, 10 yr. yield down 9 basis pts already

But nevermind that~~look over there!! IBM had good numbers! Buy, buy, buy!! ;-)

Julie

[AnneD]

44. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: I went into my local trusted, discrete (they don't take any more info than they have to)numismatic shop to get the chain repaired on the necklace I bought several mos ago. They were doing a land office business. They didn't have that many folks in at Christmas-although they said they did well. A bullion coin that I had my eye on two weeks ago was gone. While I was waiting I saw a man buy 10, yes TEN Krugerrands. I realize that this shop is in a well to do area but I was shocked (I tried to keep my mouth closed). My fav. sales guy said it had been like that all week (they close Sun. and Mon.). I can only imagine what it is like this week.

Right after I bought my precious metals, the price dipped but they have continued to go up in the long run-as I expected. I don't plan to 'get rich', just keep up with this inflation we don't have.:eyes: Every time as of late-when the feds cut rates-gold goes up and the dollar goes down. Gee, I wonder if there is a pattern here. I sleep better at night now, knowing I am diversified and after much research, trust the guys in the little coin shop around the corner.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears, their stirring about.

[UpInArms]

26. Dow Futures up 111 points on rate cut fever

S&P 500 +10.80 1418.60 1/14 9:11am
Fair Value NA 1/2 4:29am
Difference* N/A

NASDAQ +25.00 1950.50 1/14 9:11am
Fair Value NA 1/2 4:29am
Difference* N/A

Dow Jones +111.00 12772.00 1/14 9:09am

[Demeter]

30. Yeah? Well the market opened DOWN 142+

[UpInArms]

32. whaaaa???

http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview

[Demeter]

38. That Was What Our Little Chart Indicated At 9:40

Looks like another triumph of hope over experience going on right now.

[DemReadingDU]

27. Fleckenstein: We've run out of bubbles

1/14/08 Bill Fleckenstein

Booms and busts are natural to capitalism, but for years now an irresponsible Fed has interfered with the down cycle. The only choice now may be to let nature take its course.

I'll begin the new year with this comment: There are no bullish interpretations for the stock market's action thus far. This tells us that 2008 will be the year when reality finally overtakes the Goldilocks crowd.

Of course, we should expect the bulls to regale us with stories about a proverbial second-half rebound -- the possibility of which is approximately zero, in my opinion. We should also expect believers in that hypothesis to spark a rally from time to time, based on hopes of surprise interest-rate cuts and on actual cuts.

I do not believe there is a potential bubble left that could bail us out, nor do I believe a bailout should be attempted. Likewise, I do not believe any quick fix exists.

more...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/WeveRunOutOfBubbles.aspx

[Warpy]

43. The next boom is just waiting for adequate seed money

and will consist of finding all the alternatives to oil that will keep the human economy running much the way it is.

[AnneD]

46. That is on ....

my list of predictions. Look for Helium to go up (we only have an estimated 8 years worth left as best they can estimate here). It is used in medicine-besides those balloons. Frankly I think they should cease all sales on other than essential use-we can not create this. There is no replacement for what we have-FYI.

[rustydad]

49. Business as usual?

Are all those alternatives to oil coming on line like fusion power? That is in, lets see, 25 years from....yesterday...eh..from today...eh..from tomorrow...eh...from...? Bob

[Warpy]

57. Fusion is still a dream

but research into other technologies is maturing.

Keep up, willya?

[UpInArms]

29. M&T Bank 4th-qtr profit sinks 70 pct - CDO writedowns

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1439272120080114

NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - M&T Bank Corp (MTB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the first large U.S. bank to report fourth-quarter results, said on Monday that profit tumbled 70 percent, hurt by debt write-downs and turmoil in residential real estate markets.

The bank, which counts Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (BRKb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) among its largest investors, said net income fell to $64.9 million, or 60 cents per share, from $213.3 million, or $1.88, a year earlier. Operating profit totaled 77 cents per share, the bank said.

Analysts on average expected profit of $1.85 per share, according to Reuters Estimates. Buffalo, New York-based M&T was one of the few large U.S. banks that had not in the last two months specifically cautioned investors how credit and mortgage market turmoil would hurt fourth-quarter results.

M&T shares fell $3.24, or 4.4 percent, to $70.51 in pre-market electronic trading.

The company reduced profit by $78 million, or 71 cents per share, to write down collateralized debt obligations, and by $29 million, or 27 cents per share, for credit losses.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. 9:40 EST selling into the sucker's rally

Dow 12,689.78 83.48 (0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,455.64 15.70 (0.64%)
S&P 500 1,407.90 6.88 (0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 3.817% 0.007

NYSE Volume 205,753,687.5
Nasdaq Volume 130,994,453.125

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.5. It is still shaping up to be a strong market for the stock market. Citigroup (C) is higher in pre-market trading despite a CNBC report that suggests the firm’s fourth quarter write-down could be as much as $24 billion dollars. Citigroup is slated to report its earnings before the open on Tuesday.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.5. A higher start is expected. Beaten down retailers Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) are higher in pre-market trading after being upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse. In commodity trading, gold (+1.5% to $911.10) and platinum hit fresh all-time highs in overnight trade.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.0. Futures point to a noticeably higher start. A fourth quarter earnings preannouncement from IBM is driving the positive sentiment. IBM expects fourth quarter earnings of $2.80 per share compared to the consensus of $2.60. IBM said strong operational performance in Asia, Europe and emerging countries led to the better than expected results. On the negative side, Sears Holdings (SHLD) warned of fourth quarter earnings shortfall.

[Roland99]

33. So, some good news from IBM outweighs a HUGE writedown for Citi and HUGE layoffs?

Damn...*anything* for a buck.

[antigop]

36. report: Prince Alwaleed and China may rescue Citi

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/11/news/companies/citi_alwaleed.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008011210

Saudi billionaire-Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and a team of Chinese investors may ride to embattled Citigroup's rescue, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.

Chinese investors, including China Development Bank, will reportedly contribute around $2 billion. It was not known how much would be invested by Prince Alwaleed, but the Journal calculated that his stake in the bank would likely remain under 5 percent, but that even a 1 percent stake would be a vote of confidence.

[antigop]

37. China's government could hamper Citigroup's Plans to Raise Capital

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120030610310488191.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Citigroup Inc.'s plans to raise capital by selling a stake of about $2 billion to China Development Bank could be in jeopardy because of opposition from China's government, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Citigroup has been seeking foreign investors, including China Development Bank, to invest in ...

Need subscription to WSJ for the rest of the article....

[AnneD]

47. Do signs point to recession ahead?

WASHINGTON — The unemployment rate leaps to a two-year high, record numbers of people are forced from their homes and Wall Street nose-dives again. Such is the fallout from a housing meltdown that threatens to slingshot the country into a recession.

The big economic question these days is whether the weakening economy will survive the strains or collapse under them.

The odds have grown that the economy will slip into a recession. At the beginning of last year, many economists put that chance at less than 1 in 3; now an increasing number says it has climbed to around 50-50. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street, even thinks a recession is inevitable this year.

<snip>
The idea is to induce people to boost spending, especially on big-ticket items such as homes and cars, and revitalize economic activity.

more....

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5451634.html

Edited to add-read the comments too if you have time.

I know this is just old sNews...But I liked line about boosting spending. It is a bit of a primer...and I think it is more for the news folk and well to do...'cause the rest of us have been in a recession for a while now.

[AnneD]

48. Greenspan legacy questioned amid subprime crisis

The next bubble to deflate may be Alan Greenspan's reputation.

Hailed as perhaps the greatest central banker who ever lived when he left the Federal Reserve in 2006, Greenspan is under attack from critics ranging from the New York Times to economists at the American Enterprise Institute for his handling of the 2000-2005 housing boom. The former Fed chairman has taken to the media to defend himself, writing in the Wall Street Journal and appearing on network television.

"He's had a bubble reputation that derived from the growth of U.S. household wealth," said Edward Chancellor, author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation. "As that goes down, his standing as a superstar will suffer."

At stake is not only Greenspan's legacy but also the future of policies he espoused during 18 1/2 years atop the central bank. Critics blame his aversion to regulation and reluctance to use interest rates to puncture asset bubbles for the boom in mortgage lending and house prices that has since gone bust, threatening to throw the economy into recession.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5448942.html

DUH....do you think? It's about time someone that doesn't read this thread connect the dots:eyes:

[AnneD]

50. Samsung chief's office raided

SEOUL, South Korea — Investigators probing alleged corruption at the massive Samsung conglomerate raided an office of Chairman Lee Kun-hee, an official said Monday, as part of a special probe reluctantly approved last year by South Korea's president.

Kang Dong-ju, an official with the team carrying out the probe, would say only that a total of eight locations associated with Samsung Group executives were raided. South Korean media said Lee's home was part of the sweep, though Kang only mentioned an office.

Lee, who late last year marked 20 years at the helm of Samsung, is widely reported to mostly work from his residence. Photos and television footage showed what appeared to be prosecutors entering and later leaving his hilltop Seoul home.

<snip>


The probe, which started last week, came after Kim Yong-chul, a former top legal affairs official at Samsung, alleged that the conglomerate, set up a $215 million slush fund to bribe influential figures such as prosecutors, judges and government officials.

more...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/5452097.html

Wish we had more investigations like that here.

[citizen snips]

51. Sector Snap: Gold Producers Rise

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of gold producers rose in Monday afternoon trading as the price of the precious metal set an all-time high for the third day in a row.

An ounce of gold for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange touched $915.90, its highest ever, before settling at $903.40, up $5.70 for the day.

When adjusted for inflation, however, gold is well below a record. An ounce of gold at $900 in 1980 would be worth about $2,300 today.

In a note to investors, John H Hill of Citi Investment Research became at least the third analyst to forecast gold prices may hit $1,000 per ounce in 2008.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/gold_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

52. IBM, Sears Among Big Movers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks that were moving substantially or trading heavily Monday on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market:

NYSE

International Business Machines Corp., up $5.91 at $103.58

A weak dollar and strong IT spending lifted fourth-quarter earnings from continuing operations 24 percent, topping Wall Street expectations.

Coach Inc., down $1.18 at $25.67

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/wall_street_stocks.html?.v=2

[citizen snips]

53. Sector Snap: Semiconductors Up

NEW YORK (AP) -- Microchip stocks rose Monday, in part because of positive expectations for Intel's fourth-quarter results, to be released Tuesday.

UBS Investment Research analyst Uche Orji maintained his "Buy" recommendation and said in a note to investors that market leader Intel is an attractive investment.

He said he expected fourth-quarter results in line with analyst expectations and expected the company to have a cautious outlook for 2008, given broader weakness in the U.S. economy.

Orji noted that Intel's share price has dropped 17.5 percent since the start of the year, likely on concerns that the U.S. is entering a recession. However, he said the company could post rising profit margins even during an economic downturn.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/semiconductors_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

54. Sears Lowers 4Q Outlook, Shares Fall

CHICAGO (AP) -- Sears Holdings Corp. told investors Monday that it would likely post fourth-quarter earnings well below Wall Street forecasts as eroding sales push its profit down as much as 57 percent.

The retailer said it expects to earn between $350 million and $470 million, or $2.59 to $3.48 per share, for the quarter ending Feb. 2 -- far less than the $4.43 per share sought by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

Sears earned $820 million in the fourth quarter a year earlier.

The news was the latest blow to shares of the Hoffman Estates-based company, which reached a high of $195.18 in April and fell to a three-year low of $86.04 Monday morning before recovering slightly.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/sears_outlook.html?.v=9

[citizen snips]

55. Sector Snap: Online Retailers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of online jewelry auctioneer Bidz.com Inc. jumped Monday after an analyst begin covering the stock with a "Buy" rating, while shares of other Web retailers sought direction.

Bidz shares rose $1.45, or 16.7 percent, to $10.15 in afternoon trading. The stock has moved between $6.82 and $22.50 since its shares listed on the Nasdaq in June.

In a client note Monday, American Technology Research analyst Tim Boyd initiated coverage and set a $19 price target for the stock, citing Bidz's "unique" business model, growth and good fourth-quarter prospects.

Elsewhere, shares of Blue Nile Inc. declined after the online jewelry retailer said its fourth-quarter revenue grew 24 percent, but the implied estimate of $111.6 million missed a Wall Street forecast of $113.9 million.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/internet_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

56. Sector Snap: Health Insurers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of health insurers Aetna Inc. and WellPoint Inc. are likely best positioned to perform well in 2008, while the majority of their competitors will see little change, according to a Monday research note from UBS Investment Research.

Hartford, Conn.-based Aetna and Indianapolis-based WellPoint rely less on Medicare health insurance plans than many of their competitors, giving them an advantage in 2008, said UBS analyst Justin Lake.

Furthermore, the companies were among those to see enrollment in Medicare plans increase, and they could be regarded as "safe havens" for investors if the economy deteriorates.

Aetna shares fell 37 cents to $58.04 in midday trading, while shares of WellPoint fell $1.10 to $86.53.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/health_insurers_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

58. Sector Snap: Auto Suppliers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of several auto suppliers got a boost Monday, as the overall market rose and analysts predicted sales and profit growth at several of the companies.

ArvinMeritor Inc. rose after analyst Brett Hoselton raised his rating on the company to "Buy" from "Hold," forecasting a 46 percent jump in sales of its heaviest trucks for the year ending in September 2009. Sales of medium- to heavy-duty trucks also are expected to improve, he said.

In midday trading, ArvinMeritor shares surged $1.37, or 14.1 percent, to $11.09, after peaking at $11.44 earlier in the day. In the past 52 weeks, the auto supplier's shares have traded between $9.08 and $23.65.

Shares of Visteon Corp. also posted significant gains, rising 25 cents, or 7.7 percent, to $3.50 after reaching $3.52 earlier.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/auto_suppliers_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

59. Treasurys Mixed As Funds Flow to Stocks

NEW YORK (AP) -- Treasury prices ended mixed Monday after investors turned their attention back to stocks and bonds forfeited much of their safe-haven allure.

Worries about a possible recession have stoked strong demand for Treasurys and other assets that carry a safety premium in the year to date. The fear is that the contagion from subprime mortgages and a deteriorating housing sector will infect the rest of the economy.

But price action was more indecisive Monday and confined to a tight range as investors monitored developments in other markets. The day's news featured a rally in stocks, a historic rise in gold futures above $900 an ounce and a new high for the euro at $1.49.

Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income trading at Morgan Keegan, noted a waning of last week's "fear-laden price rally."

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/bonds.html?.v=5

[citizen snips]

60. Metals Prices at a Glance

NEW YORK (AP) -- The following are key metals settlement prices Monday, compared with late Friday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange:

February gold $903.4, up $5.7 an ounce

March silver $16.425, up 5.5 cents an ounce

March copper $3.3390, 3.5 cents a pound

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/metals_glance.html?.v=1

[JNelson6563]

61. Impressive gains for metals (again)

No end in sight that I can see.

Julie

[citizen snips]

62. Now I don't regret buying all this gold jewelry that I have.

[AnneD]

70. The gold...

grill is a bit over the top though....it's sooooooo 1980's.

Good to see you Matt-I missed your snaps....oh, did that didn't come out right:blush:

[citizen snips]

73. Its nice to see you around AnneD.

your delightful attitude always brightens up the stock market thread. I have not been around much of college.

[citizen snips]

63. At a Glance: Homebuilders Gain

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares in major homebuilders edged higher Monday but investors pounded Standard Pacific Corp., worried its hiring of a restructuring expert means it is close to bankruptcy.

The California homebuilder said Friday it hired investment bank Miller Buckfire, a specialist in corporate restructuring. The company's main markets of California, Arizona and Florida have been among the hardest hit in the U.S. housing crash.

However, JPM Securities analyst James Wilson said the move does not mean the company is headed toward bankruptcy, calling it a prudent way to realign costs, "and is not in any way a reflection of Standard Pacific's current financial condition."

Wilson reiterated his rating of "Market Outperform" for the shares.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/homebuilders_glance.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

64. DJIA Leaders & Laggards: IBM MRK

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of International Business Machines Corp. helped lift the Dow Jones industrial average to a higher finish on Monday, after the company reported strong preliminary results for the fourth quarter.

Shares of IBM rose $5.26, or 5.4 percent, to $102.93, after reporting a profit that was 20 cents greater than the average forecast by analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

The blue chip index picked up 171.85 points to 12,778.15.

IBM's news lifted tech stocks, and shares of chipmaker Intel Corp. rose $1.11, or 5.1 percent, to $23.08. Also, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst Craig Berger, in a client note, said Intel is poised to gain from strong notebook computer sales.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/djia_laggards.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

65. Sector Glance: Telecom

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of most telecommunications companies inched higher Monday, as the broader market climbed on strong preliminary results from International Business Machines Corp. and an analyst's positive forecast for some companies in the sector.

IBM reported a profit greater than the average forecast by analysts polled by Thomson Financial, helping to send the market to a higher close.

Citi Investment Research analyst Michael Rollins said in a client note Monday that he thinks the enterprise segment within the telecom sector "remains on solid footing," amid the ongoing economic slowdown.

Signs from companies' consumer segments, however, were mixed, wrote Rollins in a note that looked back on Citi's Entertainment, Media and Telecom conference last week.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/sector_glance_telecom.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

66. Nasdaq 100 Leaders & Laggards: NVDA SHLD

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of chipmaker Nvidia Corp. recorded the biggest gain on the Nasdaq 100 and sent the index to a higher finish amid upbeat comments from an analyst and an overall rally in the markets.

The index, which includes 100 of the largest nonfinancial securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, gained 36.34 points, or 1.9 percent, to 1,949.15. The broader Nasdaq composite added 38.36 points, or 1.6 percent, to 2,478.30.

Nvidia rose $1.84, or 6.8 percent, to $28.85 after Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst Craig Berger said the desktop business appears strong for the graphics chip maker.

SanDisk Corp., which makes flash-memory technology, rose $1.90, or 6.7 percent, to $30.48, following comments from JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster, who said SanDisk will "benefit disproportionately" from Apple Inc.'s rumored flash-based laptop.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/nasdaq_100_laggards.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

67. Business Group Paid Lobbyist $200,000

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Business Roundtable., whose members include CEOs of 160 U.S. companies, paid a lobbying firm $200,000 in the second half of 2007, according to a disclosure form.

The Trade Partnership lobbied for trade with China and U.S. free trade agreements with Peru and Colombia, according to the form posted online Thursday by the Senate's public records office.

The Business Roundtable -- whose members include aircraft maker Boeing Co., financial institution JPMorgan Chase & Co. and information technology services provider Unisys Corp. -- supports increased economic ties between the United States and China.

Lobbyists are required to disclose activities that could influence members of the executive and legislative branches, under a federal law enacted in 1995. They must register with Congress within 45 days of being hired or engaging in lobbying.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/business_roundtable_lobbying.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

68. S&P 500 Leaders & Laggards: BIG HAR

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Big Lots Inc., Terex Corp. and Manitowoc Co. rose on Monday and lifted the Standard & Poor's 500 index to a higher finish as the broader markets moved higher.

The S&P 500 index advanced 15.23 points to 1,416.25, after preliminary results from International Business Machines Corp. offered hope for a strong earnings season.

Big Lots, a discount retailer, rose 96 cents, or 7.6 percent, to $13.58.

Terex, a diversified manufacturer, rose $3.81, or 7.2 percent, to $56.74. On Monday, Terex offered $488 million, or $18 per share, to buy A.S.V. Inc., which makes construction equipment.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/s_p_500_laggards.html?.v=1

[AnneD]

71. AKA...

the Dallas Do-a boufount hair style, big har.

[UpInArms]

75. Ponies and Cotton Candy for Everyone!

Dow 12,778.15 171.85 (1.36%)
Nasdaq 2,478.30 38.36 (1.57%)
S&P 500 1,416.25 15.23 (1.09%)
10-Yr Bond 3.793% 0.017

NYSE Volume 3,684,471,250
Nasdaq Volume 2,196,800,250

4:20 pm : How do you spell relief?... I-B-M.

Before the open, the Dow component and technology bellwether shocked the market in a good way when it provided preliminary fourth quarter revenue and earnings per share figures that were comfortably above the current consensus estimates. Specifically, IBM (IBM 102.93, +5.26) reported revenues of $28.9 billion and earnings of $2.80 per share versus analysts' expectations that called for revenue of $27.8 billion and earnings of $2.60 per share.

IBM attributed its performance to strong international growth and a weaker dollar. This news gave the futures market a noticeable lift that carried over to the cash market when trading began.

Fittingly, the tech sector (+2.6%) played an instrumental role in Monday's rally effort which was also spearheaded by the materials sector (+3.5%). The latter benefited from continued gains in commodity prices that were pushed up by a weaker dollar, which was pressured by the market's interest rate cut expectations. Gold futures scored another record close at $910 a troy ounce.

For the most part, slowdown concerns were set aside Monday as other economically-sensitive areas, such as the industrials sector (+1.3%), led by the transportation stocks, and the energy sector (+1.5%), also outperformed the broader market, which gained 1.1%. Conversely, defensive-oriented outlets, such as health care (-0.5%) and consumer staples (-0.2%), underperformed.

Weakness in Merck (MRK 59.78, -0.77) and Schering-Plough (SGP 25.52, -2.21) weighed heavily on health care and came after a study conducted by the companies revealed there was no clear advantage in taking their Vytorin drug versus a cheaper alternative.

Elsewhere, the financial sector (+1.0%) had a decent outing despite reports Citigroup (C 29.06, +0.50) could report a write-down of as much as $24 billion when it posts its fourth quarter results before the start of trading on Tuesday.

The market, apparently, took some solace in the idea that the larger the write-down, the better, as it will contribute to a belief that the worst of the suffering has been felt and that the stocks are closer to a bottom.

Weakness in Monday's session was limited largely to company-specific issues. Eight out of ten economic sectors ended the day higher and the major indices closed near their best levels of the day.

Despite the strength in the stock market, the Treasury market held its ground. The benchmark 10-year note was essentially unchanged with its yield remaining at 3.78%.DJ30 +171.85 DJTA +2.3% NASDAQ +38.36 NQ100 +1.9% R2K +1.1% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +15.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1222/1802/2.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1032/2128/1.25 bln

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

76. You can't make this shit up:

The market, apparently, took some solace in the idea that the larger the write-down, the better, as it will contribute to a belief that the worst of the suffering has been felt and that the stocks are closer to a bottom.

[kineneb]

77. ack, snort.

"closer to a bottom"...my ass

...no, wait, that didn't come out quite right...

...nevermind, I will stop before it gets deeper...

:blush:

...can't imagine what those dudes are smoking/ingesting..."closer to a bottom"?
:rofl: