REVOLT IN PAKISTAN'S TRIBAL AREAS, Part 1 Ceasefire: A lull before the storm

[TomClash]

Source: Asia Times

REVOLT IN PAKISTAN'S TRIBAL AREAS, Part 1
Ceasefire: A lull before the storm
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

PESHAWAR, North-West Frontier Province - The ceasefire deal between the Pakistani security forces and a leading member of the al-Qaeda-linked Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, brokered by two stalwart Afghan commanders who persuaded Mehsud to stay in Afghanistan, is just the lull before a big storm and the beginning of a new chapter of militancy in Pakistan.


snip


The Afghan Taliban see the ceasefire as the ideal opportunity to step up their preparations for their annual spring offensive - they rely heavily on the Pakistan border areas for manpower and provisions.

Acutely aware of this, the US State Department has indicated its disapproval of the ceasefire. A ceasefire in North Waziristan in September 2006 - after partial ones beginning in April of that year - led to the Taliban's strongest showing in the battlefield since being ousted in 2001.

Even before Thursday's ceasefire, the Taliban's preparations in the strategic backyard of Pakistan were well underway. This included the isolation of Mehsud and appointing a new team of commanders in the Pakistani tribal areas. Most of the new appointments are Afghans, to signify the importance of fighting a war in Afghanistan rather than in Pakistan. The two main commanders are Abdul Wali in Bajaur Agency and Ustad Yasir in Khyber Agency.

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A contact affiliated with al-Qaeda told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, "Pakistan has already tried to revive an outdated tribal system to counter the Taliban, but by killing tribal elders in Waziristan, the Taliban effectively stopped that scheme. Now the Americans and the Pakistani government are working on tribal elders of the Shinwari and Afirdi tribes of Khyber Agency, which is the main route of NATO supplies to Afghanistan. Approximately 80% of supplies pass through this route.

"But since the Taliban want to chop off NATO supplies from Pakistan into Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban have warned these tribal elders to stay away from the conflict. However, the elders have received huge bribes from NATO, and so they are obsessed with providing protection to the supply convoys. Therefore, the Taliban will increase their activities in Khyber Agency, which means a war with the elders of the Shinwari and Afirdi tribes," the contact said.

The second sector of Taliban activity will be in Nooristan and Kunar provinces in Afghanistan, where US forces are conducting huge counter-insurgency operations.

"This year, the Taliban will focus their main attention on a new plan specifically aimed at Kunar and Nooristan. The details of the plan cannot be revealed at this point," said the contact.

The contact said that the al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan is convinced that American pressure will be so strong that the ceasefire will not be long-term.

This perception is not without substance. Wana military airfield in South Waziristan and Miranshah airfield in North Waziristan have been upgraded from makeshift airstrips into proper runways with backup facilities, which indicate plans for a powerful air operation.

The deployment of US forces at Lowari Mandi and Ghulman Khan checkpoints (both on the Afghan side of the border near North Waziristan) and the construction of a new military camp near Shawal (North Waziristan), on the Afghan side, indicate that the US is not planning on peace for very long.

The only real issue is which side will strike first, and where.


Read more: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JB09Df01.html

[ohio2007]

1. US says Mullah Omar 'in Pakistan'

The government in Islamabad isn't strong enough to enforce law in its own country let alone control its own ISI agency that operates above the law. Seems the Iranian invasion talk will turn to Pakistan invasion ?


US says Mullah Omar 'in Pakistan'
Taleban leader Mullah Omar and al-Qaeda commanders, including Osama Bin Laden, are living in Pakistan, a senior US official has told reporters.
He said senior Taleban leaders were in hiding with Mullah Omar in Quetta, from where they co-ordinated the insurgency in Afghanistan.


snip

Quetta is the capital of rugged Balochistan province which borders Afghanistan. Last month, captured Taleban spokesman Muhammad Hanif made similar claims about Mullah Omar's whereabouts, which were rejected by Pakistan.

Mr Hanif said Mullah Omar was protected by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai made similar allegations last year. The ISI was instrumental in backing the Taleban after civil war swept Afghanistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7236177.stm


btw,
Where did the original article get the "inside information" as to the Taliban future battle plans ?

misinformation?

[jaybeat]

2. Taliban + ISI + Musharaff + Saudi-financed madrassas =

War without end.

Islamic-extremism fueling conflict and thereby justifying authoritarianism throughout the Islamic world. Saudi Whabis and oil money financing extremism which in turn justifies stifling all oppression by the royal family. With US war-profiteers making money (one way or the other) from both sides, along with the military apparatus in country.

The United States used local conflicts and shifting alliances in its proxy wars against the Commies for the entire Cold War. With that pretense gone, the military industrial complex needed a new one. So we simply "re-purposed" the monsters we had created to fight the Soviets to fight--us!

An inexhaustible enemy without the middle man--brilliant!

Brought to us by this lovely cast of characters:











Lots of incredibly horrifying info here: http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/timeline.jsp?timeline=western_support_for_islamic_militancy_tmln