STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday February 25

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday February 25, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 331
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2591 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2317 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2608
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 22, 2008

Dow... 12,381.02 +96.72 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq... 2,303.35 +3.57 (+0.16%)
S&P 500... 1,353.11 +10.58 (+0.79%)
Gold future... 947.80 -1.40 (-0.15%)
30-Year Bond 4.58% +0.03 (+0.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.79% +0.01 (+0.16%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Dow Theory Update

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jan
Briefing Forecast 4.90M
Market Expects 4.80M
Prior 4.89M

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200809.html

[UpInArms]

43. U.S. Jan. existing-home median price down 4.6% in past year

11. U.S. Jan. existing-home median price down 4.6% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Feb 25, 2008 - 1 hour ago

12. U.S. Jan. existing-home inventories up 5.5% to 10.3-months
10:00 AM ET, Feb 25, 2008 - 1 hour ago

13. U.S. Jan. existing-home sales stronger than 4.80M expected
10:00 AM ET, Feb 25, 2008 - 1 hour ago

14. U.S. Jan. existing-home sales fall 0.4% to 4.89 million pace
10:00 AM ET, Feb 25, 2008 - 1 hour ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to near $100 on Turkey news

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose to near $100 a barrel Monday as the Turkish incursion into northern Iraq and warnings by Iran against further sanctions heightened concerns over potential crude supply disruptions.

Crude futures were supported by Turkey's ongoing cross-border ground operation against Kurdish rebels in Iraq. Turkish troops fired more than 40 salvos of artillery shells Monday across the Iraqi border, a day after the military confirmed a Turkish helicopter crashed in Iraq and eight soldiers were killed.
......

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 45 cents to $99.26 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York
Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. It has climbed as high as $99.70 a barrel in the electronic session.

The contract settled 58 cents, or 0.6 percent, higher at $98.81 a barrel on Friday.

Also driving prices higher was a threat by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Saturday that Tehran would take unspecified "decisive reciprocal measures" against any country that imposed additional sanctions against his country.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

U.S. gasoline prices rise to $3.10 a gallon: survey

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States rose in the last two weeks, tracking a rise in crude oil prices, according to a nationwide survey.

The national average for self-serve, regular, unleaded gas was $3.1011 per gallon on February 22, up 15.88 cents from two weeks earlier, and up 75.24 cents from a year ago, according to the Lundberg survey of about 7,000 gas stations.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080224/us_nm/energy_gasoline_retail_dc

[Ghost Dog]

16. US considers sanctions against Iran's central bank: report

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US Treasury Department is considering sanctions against Iran's central bank, which it suspects of helping other Iranian institutions evade earlier US economic sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

Citing unnamed financial and intelligence officials from three countries, the newspaper said the impact of such a measure would depend in large measure on the extent to which US allies backed the effort.

/.. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080225/bs_afp/usiransanctionsbank

[AnneD]

34. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: We have had an interesting few days here in Houston. Our mornings have been unbelievably foggy. This has really slowed the Port traffic down. That means less crude is being shipped out. They dare not ship until the fog burns off, for fear of having an accident in the port basin and he tired up for weeks. This back log means tankers are not leaving as soon as we would like....so until the morning fog lifts....we are expecting short term price increases here for gas.

And speaking of a fog lifting, it seems as if the Clinton camp work up here in Texas and realized the primary was next week. I have seen more ads, but I am afraid the damage is done. Since the primary is open and you don't register with your party, things are getting interesting here. I haven't seen so much fence hopping since Old Man Gabriel's prize Jersey came into heat.

I have had more GOP friends tell me they are voting in the DEM primary. Some are voting for Obama because they like him and think him better than McCain, or they think he is weaker and will lose to McCain. Some are voting for Clinton because they like her and think she is better than McCain. Some are voting for her because they think they can bet her in a general election and they fear Obama.

The only thing I can assure you is this number of DEM's will not show for the general election.

Regardless, between all the speechifying about the primaries and the Economic reports due out this week, we will have a fun week.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Ghost Dog]

37. I must say the whole concept of open primaries

does my head in. :silly:

[AnneD]

51. That's politics in Texas for you...

never a dull minute and not for the faint of heart.

[Ghost Dog]

38. Oil giants are poised to move into Basra

Western oil giants are poised to enter southern Iraq to tap the country's vast reserves, despite the ongoing threat of violence, according to (UK PM) Gordon Brown's business emissary to the country.

Michael Wareing, who heads the new Basra Development Commission, acknowledged that there would be concerns among Iraqis about multinationals exploiting natural resources.

Basra, where 4,000 British troops are based, has been described as 'the lung' of Iraq by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The region accounts for 90 per cent of government revenue and 70 per cent of Iraq's proven oil reserves. It has access to the Gulf and is potentially one of the richest areas in the Middle East, but continues to be plagued by rival militias.

Wareing, international chief executive of KPMG, was asked by Brown to help kick-start business in the Basra region in the hope that prosperity will bring stability. On his first visit last week, he met officials and business leaders but a sandstorm forced him to cancel a flight to Baghdad to meet Maliki and General David Petraeus, the US's commanding officer in Iraq.

In the first interview since his appointment, Wareing, 53, told The Observer that security had improved significantly in recent months and was no longer an issue for investors. 'If you look at many other economies in the world, particularly the oil-rich economies, many of these places are quite challenging countries in which to do business,' he said. 'Frankly, if you can successfully operate in the Niger Delta, that is a very different benchmark from imagining that Basra needs to be like London or Paris.'

Iraq's parliament has yet to pass a hydrocarbon law setting out the terms oil companies will operate on and how profits will be split. 'My sense is that many of the oil companies are very eager to come in now, and actually what they're waiting for is the hydrocarbon law to be passed and various projects to be signed off. That is what is causing them to pause, rather than the security position,' he said.

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/24/iraq.oil

[kineneb]

52. and there, in a nutshell, is why the US military is in Iraq

to bring "freedom" to Iraq's oil resources... to be exploited by multi-national oil companies.

(but not "freedom" to the Iraqi people... they get in the way of gross profits.)

[ozymandius]

4. Spending, inflation data to hit Wall St.

NEW YORK - Wall Street will face a slew of data this week: on Americans' spending, inflation at the producer level, home sales and manufacturing.

So far this year, economic data has been mixed, but worrisome overall, and that has made for a turbulent stock market. And investors are bracing for more of the same — for some time to come.

Last week, the Dow inched up 0.27 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose a modest 0.23 percent and the Nasdaq composite index dipped 0.79 percent. The three indexes are all down sharply for the year, and there's no sign yet of a true rebound in the stock market.
.....

Stock markets generally fall 30 percent, peak to trough, during a recession, said Christian Menegatti, lead analyst at the economic and financial Web site RGE Monitor. So it's quite possible, he said, depending on how weak the economy gets this year, for stocks to fall another 15 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080224/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_week_ahead

[Ghost Dog]

32. MSNBC "analyst" on stagflation (video)

here: http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&fg=rss&vid=6001f492-0f33-41a7-95f1-b37675795912&from=34

(note the mention of the jiggered unemployment statistic there).

[kineneb]

53. Quote of the Day, by Mark Twain (& every day for US gov statistics)

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Autobiography of Mark Twain

[AnneD]

56. I had to listen carefully

2 times before I could hear it for all the spin. They are saying the numbers are going up in one breath and denying it is a problem the next.:crazy:

[Hissyspit]

5. Global Stocks, Dollar Rise on Ambac Rescue Hopes

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080225/bs_nm/markets_global_dc

Global stocks, dollar rise on Ambac rescue hopes
By Natsuko Waki
32 minutes ago

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks and the dollar rose on Monday as talk of a rescue plan for a U.S. bond insurer and comments that Qatar is interested in investing in European banks eased concerns about the banking industry.

Energy and commodity prices remained firm, with geopolitical concerns in Iran and Turkey lifting oil prices above $99 a barrel. Silver hit a 27-year high and platinum and gold held near last week's record highs.

Investors have been spooked by the threat of credit downgrades raised by the monoline bond insurers' exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages.

The monolines provide cover against default in securitized debt, and such downgrades could trigger a wave of forced selling in bonds the insurers have guaranteed, which would lead to more losses by banks in a long-running global credit crunch.

A rescue plan for Ambac Financial (ABK.N), which could be announced on Monday or Tuesday, could allow the bond insurer to keep its top ratings and avert debt sell-offs.

[Ghost Dog]

8. Asian Stocks Rise on Bond Insurer Rescue Plan; Financials Jump

Good morning, Hissyspit! Let's see if it's for real. :hi:

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, led by financial companies and electronics exporters, on speculation U.S. banks will prevent subprime losses from slowing global economic growth.

Millea Holdings Inc., Japan's biggest insurer, and Commonwealth Bank of Australia led gains after the Wall Street Journal said Ambac Financial Group Inc. made progress toward raising $3 billion in capital as part of a rescue agreement with banks. Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. and Canon Inc. paced technology companies higher. All 10 of the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index's industry groups advanced.

The rescue plan ``boosts investors' confidence a chain reaction of subprime losses will be averted,'' said Yoshihiro Okumura, who helps oversee about $365 million at Chiba-gin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Actual losses at Japan's insurance companies are smaller than overseas counterparts, which encourages investors to pile back in to their shares.''

MSCI's Asian index added 1.5 percent to 145.83 at 5:02 p.m. in Tokyo, following a 0.8 percent retreat last week. The benchmark has rallied 10 percent since reaching a 14-month-low on Jan. 22 as concern eased that the U.S. housing slump was dragging the economy into a recession.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 3.1 percent to 13,914.57, the highest close since Jan. 15 and Asia's biggest increase. Indexes advanced elsewhere in the region, except China, Hong Kong and Malaysia. The Philippines is closed for a holiday.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aLmVLIABQKRs&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

9. Ambac rescue talk lifts Asian shares

Asian stock markets started the week on a cautiously upbeat note as speculation over the weekend of a rescue plan for Ambac, a leading US bond insurer, helped ease worries about the prospects for the global credit markets.

Financial stocks led the region's advance and Japan was the biggest gainer, with the Nikkei rising more than 2 per cent. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was 1.1 per cent higher at 145.26 by lunchtime in Tokyo.

The markets had made "a fragile recovery," said one trader in Singapore, on the hopes that Ambac would be get fresh capital to reinforce its credit rating. "Last week there were days when people were wondering when all the gloom would end," he said, though he added that if a rescue failed the chain reaction could "get pretty nasty."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080225/bs_ft/fto022520080030559893;_ylt=AkaSXbhbQHT8jO5fnp2zRBT2ULEF

[Ghost Dog]

11. Nikkei hits 6-wk closing high on China fund report

TOKYO, Feb 25 (Reuters) - The Nikkei average rose more than 3 percent on Monday, posting a six-week closing high as market sentiment improved after a newspaper said China's sovereign wealth fund would buy as much as $10 billion in Japanese stocks.

Another big boost came from financial shares including top insurer Millea Holdings (8766.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and banks as talk of a U.S. bond insurer rescue plan eased concern about the subprime loan crisis.

Inpex Holdings Inc (1605.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and property firms advanced after Britain's Times newspaper said the $200 billion China Investment Corp (CIC) would consider purchasing a large stake in the oil and gas developer and eventually move towards direct investments, such as in real estate.

"For Japanese stocks, the biggest positive driver for today is the China sovereign wealth fund news," said Fujio Ando, senior managing director at Chibagin Asset Management.

The Nikkei average .N225 rose 3.1 percent or 414.11 points to end at 13,914.57, its highest close since Jan. 15.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT20176220080225?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

23. Yen Declines as Stock Rally Bolsters Higher-Yielding Currencies

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against all 16 most- active currencies as gains in stocks and commodities spurred traders to buy higher-yielding assets funded with loans made in Japan.

The yen dropped the most versus the South African rand and the Canadian and Australian dollars as gold rose to within 2 U.S. cents of a record, oil traded close to $100 a barrel and zinc surged to a six-week high. Investors resumed so-called carry trades as equities in Europe and Asia climbed on speculation U.S. banks will provide bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. with $3 billion in new capital as part of a rescue plan.

...

The dollar traded near a three-week low versus the euro on concern industry reports today and tomorrow will show the housing recession in the U.S. is deepening.

The U.S. currency has fallen against 12 of the 16 most- active currencies this year on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep cutting its benchmark interest rate from 3 percent.

``We're not likely to get any numbers out of the U.S. anytime soon which will give the U.S. dollar any support,'' said Tony Morriss, a currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. ``I expect the dollar to slowly grind weaker'' to $1.50 per euro within three months.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aSGpSG3RkXKc&refer=japan

[Ghost Dog]

35. Japan Debates Its Own Sovereign Wealth Fund

There is increasing evidence that the U.S. credit crunch is beginning to severely hamper not only US, but global economic growth, as institution after institution continues to trim back their economic growth forecasts. Judging merely from the public reaction of Japan’s monetary and political authorities, one sometimes wonders if anyone is awake in Japan (i.e., realizes the true import of the credit crisis in the US).

But a small group of LDP politicians do continue to push hard for timely and resolute action to stimulate Japan’s economy, including the introduction of a Japanese sovereign wealth fund. The debate has ratcheted up the next level with the establishment of a special team within the government’s National Strategy Headquarters to investigate more active management of Japan’s $996 billion in foreign exchange reserves and public pension funds to generate investment returns that can be used to restructure Japan’s public finances.

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/65921-japan-debates-its-own-sovereign-wealth-fund

[Ghost Dog]

12. China's Stock Index Falls to Six-Month Low; Banks Lead Decline

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks fell, dragging the nation's benchmark to a six-month low, on speculation new shares will dilute existing holdings and after the central bank said it will continue to order banks to set aside more reserves.

China United Telecommunications Corp. tumbled by the daily 10 percent limit on speculation the wireless service provider plans to sell shares, which it denied. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Vanke Co. led financial and property shares lower after the People's Bank of China said it will ``vigorously'' reduce money supply by raising banks' reserve ratio, restricting funds available for loans.

``There's a lot of supply flowing into the market and that's affecting sentiment,'' said Gabriel Gondard, who helps manage the equivalent of $10 billion at Fortune SGAM Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``Investors are also concerned over the way the central bank will rein in inflation, which adds uncertainties.''

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, fell 3.9 percent to 4,519.78 at the close; its lowest level since Aug. 2. All 10 industry groups dropped, with a gauge of financial and property shares contributing the most to the main index's decline. About 11 stocks declined for each that rose.

The measure has plunged 21 percent in the past six weeks, on concern six interest rate increases last year and a record bank reserve ratio will slow the economy. Stocks also fell on speculation a recession in the U.S. will reduce demand for Chinese exports. The index reached a record on Oct. 16.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=apDdcwO_nEc0&refer=china

[Ghost Dog]

15. As China's inflation soars, world fears knock-on effects

SHANGHAI (AFP) - As China's factory floors feel the pressure from spiralling costs, there is growing nervousness in the rest of the world that the Asian giant's next big export could be inflation.

From air-conditioned US shopping malls to bustling African street markets and remote Asian villages, shoppers have become accustomed over recent years to the vast array of ultra-cheap Chinese goods on offer.

China's trade surplus last year reached 262.2 billion dollars, a more than 10-fold rise from 2003.

But now a confluence of factors, led by soaring domestic inflation that hit an 11-year high of 7.1 percent in January, is ramping up the costs of doing business in China, with potential knock-on effects for the rest of the world.

As China's currency has strengthened sharply against the dollar, the government has scrapped export tax rebates, while more stringent labour laws and even the ice and snow storms in southern and central China have further driven up costs.

"China's inflation is having a domino effect on worldwide inflation, especially in the United States," Li Huiyong, an analyst from Shanghai-based SYWG Research and Consulting, told AFP.

"In the past, (outside) inflation pressures in the US mainly came from oil prices because the US economy is highly dependent on crude oil. Cheap products from China and other developing countries helped to alleviate that pressure.

"Now Chinese goods are no longer as cheap it adds to the inflation pressure in the United States."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080224/bs_afp/chinaeconomyinflationtrade_080224220708;_ylt=AssV7HHV1qraexbmuj1jwNemOrgF

[Ghost Dog]

18. HK stocks fall with mainland mkts but HSBC jumps

HONG KONG, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Hong Kong blue chips fell 0.2
percent and China plays dropped 1 percent on Monday, as tumbling
mainland stock markets unnerved investors, prompting them to sell
Chinese large caps in the financial and commodity sectors.

Turnover marked its lowest level this year, and bourse
operator Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKEx) (0388.HK: Quote, Profile, Research)
was punished for it, falling for a fourth straight session.

"It doesn't look too bright for HKEx in the near term," said
Peter Pak, vice president at BOCI Securities. "Confidence is
weak. We have clients who want to wait until after the earnings
results before deciding to do anything."

But global bank HSBC Holdings plc (0005.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) was a bright
spot, as shares rose on news that banks were near an agreement to
bail out bond insurer Ambac Financial in a deal that could stem
further losses in credit markets .

The benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI closed down 35.90 points
at 23,269.14. The China Enterprises index of H shares , or
Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, fell 1 percent, or
133.91 points, to 13,202.98.

Mainboard turnover was at its lowest since Dec 31,
registering a meagre HK$63.7 billion (US$8.2 billion) compared to
Friday's HK$73.9 billion.

China's main stock index .SSEC sank more than 4 percent as
investors sold shares in companies that are raising funds from
the market on fears over the market's ability to absorb a huge
supply of new stock due to hit the market.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAHKG32732420080225?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

14. Takeover talk lifts European banks

European equity markets were lifted on Monday by resurgent banks as the latest wave of takeover speculation hit the recently mauled sector.

After an hour of trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 1.3 per cent to 1,337.57, Frankfurt's Xetra Dax added 0.9 per cent to 6,868.97, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 1.4 per cent to 4,893.52 and London's FTSE 100 climbed 1.7 per cent to 5,986.8.

Qatar's $60bn sovereign wealth fund was at the centre of much of the banking sector specultion. Qatar is looking to spend between $10bn and $15bn on bank stakes in the next two years, the fund's head said at the weekend.

The fund already has a near-2 per cent stake in Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), which gained 2.1 per cent to SFr52.65. Britain's Royal Bank of Scotland was up 5.4 per cent to 399p on speculation it could also be a target.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080225/bs_ft/fto022520080445259905

... The sector was also lifted by comments from Qatar's prime minister, who heads the country's $60 billion sovereign wealth fund, that he favoured investing in European over U.S. lenders.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL2545057620080225?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

17. Floated Gulf currencies would ease inflation-Greenspan

JEDDAH/ABU DHABI, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday near-record Gulf Arab inflation would fall "significantly" were the oil producers to drop their dollar pegs, in contradiction to Saudi policy.

...

But Saudi central bank vice-governor Muhammed Al Jasser and United Arab Emirates Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi both said dollar pegs have served their economies well by attracting foreign investment.

"They did very well for our economies because it has led to more capital flows," Suweidi told an investment conference in the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi, on Monday.

Likewise Al Jasser, questioned by Reuters about the riyal/dollar peg on Sunday, said: "It just happens to be serving our economic interests and continues to do so."

The pegs restrict the Gulf's ability to fight inflation by forcing them to shadow U.S. monetary policy when the Fed is cutting rates to ward off recession and Gulf economies are surging on a near five-fold jump in oil prices since 2002.

Inflation in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, hit a 27-year peak of 7 percent in January, while in the UAE, price rises in 2006 -- the latest available figure -- rose to 9.3 percent, at least a 19-year high.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2515874520080225?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

22. Qatar urges GCC to bridge currency rifts

Qatar's Prime Minister urged Gulf Arab oil producers to bridge differences over a single currency, saying monetary union could avert possible unilateral revaluations designed to check soaring inflation.

Qatar's dollar-pegged riyal is undervalued by as much as 30 percent and currency revaluation is being studied, among several options, to check inflation, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani said in an interview late on Saturday.

Inflation in the richest Arab country by per capita hit 13.74 percent in the fourth quarter.

"It's now the time for the Gulf to have its own currency," Sheikh Hamad said in the Qatari capital, Doha. "We are thinking about it and in talks ... we are discussing with Gulf countries, but there is no consensus."

Qatar, the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, would prefer to make any change to its currency policy in concert with Saudi Arabia and its other Gulf Arab partners preparing for monetary union as early as 2010, Sheikh Hamad said.

/... http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=24506

[Ghost Dog]

20. Indian Rupee Falls as Sensex Loss May Spur Funds to Sell Shares

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- India's rupee fell, reversing earlier gains, on speculation equity market losses will spur overseas investors to sell local shares.

The currency declined for a second day after the benchmark share index fell to the lowest in almost two weeks. Funds based abroad have sold Indian equities worth $2.9 billion this year, after making purchases worth a record $17.2 billion in 2007, according the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

...

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, slid as much as 1.2 percent today, adding to the 2.2 percent loss on Feb. 22. The index, which gained 47 percent in 2007, has fallen 15 percent this year.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=ae6hjeqO__74&refer=india

[Ghost Dog]

21. India to unveil anti-poverty budget as elections near: economists

AFP, 24 February 2008 - India's centre-left government will focus on fighting poverty and helping debt-hit farmers when it delivers this week what could be its last budget before the next general election, economists say.

Ruling Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi gave a flavour of Friday's budget when she said last week Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram would "keep the common man's difficulties," especially those of farmers, in mind.

"This is likely to be the government's last full-fledged budget before the general elections," expected to be held within 12 to 15 months, Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya said.

The budget for the next fiscal year to March 2009 "will be aimed at pleasing the lower-income segment of the population, which, during recent months, has been suffering from the rising cost of living," Ahya said.

Congress, which owes its upset 2004 general election win to support from India's poor masses, is already feeling the heat over inflation, which has been blamed for the party's drubbing in several state polls.

Finance Minister Chidambaram, a Harvard-educated lawyer-turned-politician, is expected to stress measures to wrestle down prices and keep Asia's third-largest economy on track for strong growth.

Inflation is running at a six-month high of 4.35 percent but many economists believe the official figures understate the real rise in consumer prices.

Social spending will also be high on the agenda to help the poor, who represent over a quarter of India's 1.1 billion people and who have been largely bypassed by the economic boom, led by India's flagship outsourcing industry.

The government is expected to boost education and health spending, and increase allocations for rural infrastructure, economist say.

Thousands of villages still lack roads and access to medical care, schools, clean water and sanitation.

"India should not claim to be a superpower before it provides tapped water and toilets to its citizens," said social activist Ela Bhatt, writing in the Times of India.

/... http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?type=DocDet&ObjectId=Mjg2NDc

[Roland99]

27. $3billion for Ambac was the number mentioned on CNBC

Sounds like a band-aid, to me.

[Ghost Dog]

30. Bloomberg says the Wall Street Journal said Ambac Financial Group Inc. made progress toward raising

Yup, Bloomberg said (#8) the Wall Street Journal said Ambac Financial Group Inc. made progress toward raising $3 billion in capital as part of a rescue agreement with banks.

Much of this sounds like attempted playing of 'market psychology' (a force I strongly agree is very significant). However, in the current overall situation the 'fundamentals' (and indeed the entire 'financial structure') are in fact so awry...

[Roland99]

36. Any word on how much a split of muni bonds makes up the rest?

That's just separating the wheat from the chaff. There are still billions (tens, hundreds of billions?) wrapped up in that chaff with many investors at stake and its use as collateral at risk.

Closing their eyes and tapping their heels won"t fix it this time.

[Ghost Dog]

39. I haven't seen figures on the split yet. WaPo has this:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A rescue for bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N) may be announced on Monday or Tuesday, a person familiar with the matter said on Friday.

...

A deal has not yet been signed, and may still fall through, but talks with banks including Citigroup Inc (C.N), UBS AG (UBSN.VX) and Wachovia Corp (WB.N) are advancing, although there are still details to be worked out, the person said.

...

The U.S. bond insurance industry, which guarantees some $2.4 trillion of debt, is broadly looking to raise new capital and reorganize as expected losses have mounted. The insurers originally focused mainly on insuring bonds issued by state and local governments, but have lost big after the foray into guaranteeing repackaged consumer debt and other complicated instruments.

At least two bond insurers, MBIA Inc and FGIC Corp, have announced plans to divide their municipal bond insurance businesses from their other insurance operations. Ambac may follow a similar path, people familiar with the situation said.

The New York Times reported in Saturday editions that Ambac plans to split itself in two and hopes to raise $3 billion to bolster its finances, citing a person who had seen the plans and spoke on Friday. An announcement could come as early as Monday, the newspaper added.

COMPETING INTERESTS

Rescuing or restructuring bond insurers is difficult because of the number of competing interests involved. Any splits could result in years of litigation, Bank of America analysts wrote last week.

For example, banks that bought guarantees from a bond insurer might not be interested in giving up their rights to cash flow from municipal bond guarantee business.
...

Ambac guaranteed $524 billion of debt as of the end of December, less than MBIA's $679 billion.

In addition to Citi, UBS and Wachovia, banks working with Ambac include Barclays Plc (BARC.L), BNP Paribas SA (BNPP.PA), Allianz's (ALVG.DE) Dresdner Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS.L), and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA).

/... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/25/AR2008022500712.html

[Ghost Dog]

40. Buffett Rapidly Grows His New Municipal Insurance Arm

One of Warren Buffett's newest businesses -- insuring municipal bonds -- is expanding rapidly into a troubled field as the company backed 112 issues in just the past two days, according to Moody's Investors Service.
Advertisement

"I think it's rapid growth. The fact is, he's starting from zero. Whether he's going to be insuring as many on a weekly basis, I don't know," said Lee Epstein, chief executive officer of Money Market One, a San Francisco-based investment dealer.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. only started insuring municipal bonds in late December, and it is one of the few bond insurers that can offer borrowers and investors an unblemished top rating of "AAA."

Rating agencies have already cut or warned they may downgrade insurers that guarantee principal and interest on about $1.6 trillion of municipal debt because the companies face billion-dollar claims from insuring subprime mortgage-related securities.

A Moody's spokesman last Thursday had no further details about what kinds of muni bonds or how much debt the Buffett's new insurer is backing.

"We have rated approximately 112 Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp-insured issues between yesterday and today," the spokesman said.

/... http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2008/02/25/87610.htm

[Hissyspit]

6. Loans Make Up Most of Collateral Posted at Fed: Report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080225/bs_nm/fed_collateral_dc

Loans make up most of collateral posted at Fed: report
1 hour, 44 minutes ago

LONDON (Reuters) - More than half the collateral backing cash advances by the Federal Reserve is in the form of loans rather than bonds and other securities, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing the New York Fed.

The New York Fed claims that since the credit crisis began banks have provided a wide variety of collateral, including Treasuries, Federal agency bonds and other mortgage backed securities, the FT reported.

But the high proportion of loans being used as collateral suggests smaller banks, who have fewer securities to post with the central bank, are increasingly active users of the Fed's liquidity support facilities, the FT said.

The FT said that since the interbank lending crisis blew up last August the Fed has been willing to take on more illiquid assets as collateral.

[kineneb]

54. bad sign- loans backed by loans...eek! nt

[Warpy]

55. Worse sign, derivatives

Check out what the derivatives market is, how much it represents in terms of assets institutional investors are counting, and what's holding it up.

When that goes bust (and it will), hundreds of trillions of dollars will evaporate into thin air worldwide.

There is no place we can run to for this one. It is going to be a worldwide problem, just like it was in the 1930s, the last time the bankers had everything their way thanks to successive conservative administrations in key countries.

[AnneD]

58. How messed up is it when....

they can't tell the difference between an asset and a loan.

I was talking to my daughter yesterday and came up with something to help her understand investments, etc.

An Investment...you have a 75-100% of getting your money back and then some
Speculation...you have a 50%-50% chance of getting your money back and then some.
Desperation...you have a 25% chance or less of recouping your money. Think Vegas or Lottery.

I am beginning to think these guys are in the desperation mode.

[Warpy]

59. They are

because they've all made loans way in excess of assets to back them up.

[Karenina]

63. The first question I asked

after the WTC demolition was, "Where were the F-16s?" Now I ask, "Where is this $405 TRILLION in derivatives which is 6X more than the "money" that exists IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD???" Bear with me here, I'm just a-s-k-i-n-g. As a kid I asked, "What about the nuclear waste?" and "Isn't unlimited growth what cancer cells do?" (Got in BIG trouble for that one in 5th grade as the word "cancer" was verboten but as Daddy was an M.D. it was common parlance in our home).

I bought this week's *STERN. The cover story is "ELITE OHNE MORAL.
Die Steueraffäre Zumwinkel: Wie die Reichen unsere Gesellschaft untergraben" (How the rich undermine our society). I will READ IT, highlighter in hand and get my native speaker friends to check my comprehension with a fine-toothed comb, even as ich weiss schon was darin steht. Betrug=betrayal. Same old shit.

[Warpy]

72. I have to kick and claw my way through German

although it was the first language I learned as a baby parked with Alsatian grandparents.

I'm grateful for the translation.

Yes, the derivatives market was described by another economy poster as a casino on steroids. Anyone who counts derivatives in a portfolio is going to be badly hurt. That means hedge funds and the institutional investors are all going to be in huge trouble.

[ozymandius]

7. Top economists see signs of recession

WASHINGTON - Job growth is faltering, consumer confidence plunging. The fallout from the worst housing slump in a quarter-century grows. Wherever you look, the signs are unmistakable that the economy is in trouble.

Because of all the bad news, more and more economists foresee the country falling into a recession, according to the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
.....

The survey shows that 55 percent still believe the country will be able to skate by without falling into an actual downturn, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic output, the broadest measure of economic health. All the analysts, however, expect growth to slow considerably this year.

The forecasters believe GDP will expand by 1.8 percent this year, which would be the weakest growth in five years. That compares with an estimate of 2.5 percent growth for 2008 made in the previous survey, in November.
.....

The NABE forecast reflects the expectation the economy will grow only sluggishly or actually contract from January through June. Then it is seen starting to expand more strongly in the second half of the year. Helping accomplish that is a $168 billion federal aid plan, with its rebate checks for millions of families, and aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080225/ap_on_bi_ge/recession_watch

[UpInArms]

26. From the architect: U.S. recovery may take longer than usual: Greenspan

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080225/bs_nm/greenspan_economy_dc

JEDDAH (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth has stalled and recovery may take longer than usual, former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday.

"As of right now, U.S. economic growth is at zero," Greenspan said at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city. "We are at stall speed."

"Recovery might take longer to emerge than it usually does," he added.

The longer growth stays at zero, the more likely the world's largest economy would start to contract, he said, adding that globalization of trade could ease some shocks.

"Growing globalization of trade and the economy would facilitate the absorption of shocks in the U.S.," he said.

...more from the asswipe that is flapping his lips to the tune of $100,000 each speech - in Saudi Arabia no less...

will someone tell that washed up political hasbeen hack to STFU?!

[Demeter]

65. Proving that More Than Half the Economists Are on Mood-Altering Drugs

or LSD.

[ozymandius]

10. Impact of beef recall widens

The nation's largest meat recall could grow into its largest food recall as companies destroy products with any amount of the 143 million pounds of beef recalled last week.

The recall's scope is unprecedented, says the Grocery Manufacturers of America. The value of foods affected — including soups, sauces, burritos and bouillon cubes — could run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, a senior GMA official says.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-02-24-beef-recall-impact-widens_N.htm

[ozymandius]

13. Meatpacker to shut down permanently after recall: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hallmark/Westland Meat Packing Co, which issued the biggest meat recall in U.S. history last week, will likely shut down permanently, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The report on Saturday quoted the company's general manager Anthony Magidow as saying that cash had become tight and he saw no way the company could reopen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN24205620080224

[ozymandius]

19. Interest rates: The new conundrum

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Fed has lowered short-term interest rates this year but longer-term bond yields have risen. Call it the new conundrum. And it's adding to the confusion on Wall Street about the economy.

In his final year as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan repeatedly talked about a "conundrum" in the markets. He was referring to the fact that rates for the 10-year U.S. Treasury and 30-year mortgages remained low even as the Fed jacked its key short-term federal funds rate from 1% to 4.5%.
.....

By the time Greenspan's successor Ben Bernanke was done raising rates in June 2006, the yield on the 10-year Treasury stood at 5.22% while the federal funds rate was at 5.25%

What's more, the 10-year yield was only 0.6 percentage points higher than where it was when the rate hikes began two years earlier. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage had risen by less than a half-point.
.....


But long-term rates are once again moving in the opposite direction of the Fed: the yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and fixed-rate mortgages are higher now than where they were in late January. This could add to pain in the housing market...or be cause for optimism. It depends on who you ask.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/25/news/economy/conundrum/index.htm

[UpInArms]

24. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.657 Change +0.130 (+0.17%)

What to Expect for the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/What_to_Expect_for_the_1203718895160.html

The dollar has weakened this past week, but the question on everyone’s mind is how bad is the US economy really doing? Hopefully next week’s heavy data calendar and testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will shed more light on the state of the US economy and monetary policy. With the exception of producer prices, we expect more dollar bearish news and would actually be surprised if Bernanke had anything positive to say about the US economy. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 225bp since August and it will be interesting to see if this has helped existing or new home sales in the month of January. According to the NAHB housing market index, bottom fishers are slowly beginning to sniff out the inventory, but just because they are sniffing do not mean that they are buying. Durable goods, fourth quarter GDP, personal income, personal spending and the Chicago PMI reports are also expected to be released, which means that a volatile week is in store for the currency market. There is a good chance that another round of weak US economic data could drive the US dollar to a record low against the Euro. We continue to believe that the next 2 months of retail sales and non-farm payrolls data will be particularly weak because the last time that we have seen service sector ISM fall to the levels that it did back in January was in 2001 and at that time, non-farm payrolls dropped 300k. In some ways, the latest crisis to the US economy is worse than 2001 which means that the 17k job loss that was reported by the Labor Department in January could pale in comparison to the losses that we could see in February and March. The same can be said for retail sales. Food prices have been on a tear, forcing many consumers to count their pennies at the supermarket. Milk prices alone have increased 15 percent since the beginning of last year. However amidst all of the bad news, there is some good. Many traders are expecting a V shaped recovery in the US economy in the second half of the year. According to the profit forecasts for the S&P 500, a 19 percent increase in earnings is expected in Q3. Traders have also piled into steepener trades in the bond markets which mean that they expect yields to rise again a few months forward. This plays into our view that the US dollar will recover in the second half of the year.

...more...

Dollar - Dropping to New Lows?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar___Dropping_to_New_1203916745337.html

Dollar declined for the second week in a row as the economic data produced nothing but drab news. CPI continued to press higher with core readings reaching 2.5% while headline prices clocked in at 4.3% as rise in commodities showed that inflation is very much alive. But price stability is not a concern for the Fed at the moment. US monetary policy are solely focused on reviving growth. This week horrendous reading in the Philly Fed index which reached a 7 year low, was a loud and clear signal that demand is contracting rapidly. Add to that the fact the weekly jobless claims have averaged well above 350K for the past four weeks and it becomes easy to see that markets now expect another 50bp cut in March.

As we noted last Monday, “In the past few weeks, the euro has come under heavy assault on fears that ECB will soon be forced to follow the Fed towards a more accommodative monetary policy. However, if market perception changes, with traders coming to a consensus that EZ rates will remain at 4% for at least the first half of 2008, the unit could regain its upward momentum and challenge new highs as interest rate differential dynamics come back into play.”

Next week the calendar is quite busy but most the data will be second tier. The one exception to that rule is the Durable Sales report due on Wednesday. The market expects a massive decline to -4.0% from prior months jump of 5.0%. If the news confirms the dour forecast the dollar may see further selling as the notion of an oncoming recession will begin to solidly in the market. However, if the report surprises to the upside, it could prove to dollar positive suggesting that maybe, just maybe economic demand is more resilient than most traders believe. In short, it promises to be another volatile week as prices in EURUSD approach record lows once again.



...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Cerberus' problems deepen amid Chrysler, GMAC woes

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN243402320080224?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Cerberus Capital Management LP, the brash private equity firm named for a demonic dog, has been humbled in recent weeks by woes at two of its larger investments, automaker Chrysler LLC and auto and mortgage lender GMAC LLC.

<snip>

Also, Scottish Re Group Ltd (SCT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a reinsurer into which Cerberus injected $300 million last May, said it would try to sell some units and cut costs to preserve capital and liquidity. The reason: its business plan does not work.

<snip>

The Wall Street Journal in December said Nardelli confirmed he told employees in a meeting that month that Chrysler, which is cutting thousands of jobs, was "operationally" bankrupt.

<snip>

It's not just shareholders of such companies that get hurt. Investors who bought Blackstone partnership units when the firm went public last June have lost about half their investment.

...more...

[Demeter]

42. Pardon Me While I Gloat

[InkAddict]

47. Just paid off my 0% APR loan.

She's all mine forever and all the maintenance and regular feeding too.

[TalkingDog]

50. People call the strangest things to themselves....

I knew a guy once who dabbled in real estate; buying up damaged and foreclosed property. He'd throw a few bucks at it, make it liveable, then rent it out. He always laughed and said he wanted to be "the town's biggest slum lord".

Then he's surprised when he can't rent the places out to stable employed folks who would take care of the units. Most of his renters ended up as Sections (govt. assistance rentals).

He got exactly what he kept asking for, but for some reason, he wasn't pleased with the result.


Demonic dogs? No way.... My mushy-faced pooches are enough trouble.

[AnneD]

60. Strike up the band....

:nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity:

[UpInArms]

28. Ohio on front line in U.S. housing meltdown

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1922461920080225?sp=true

CLEVELAND (Reuters) - The U.S. housing meltdown has struck cities and neighborhoods throughout the country, but it has hit few places harder than Cleveland's Slavic Village.

On some streets in the neighborhood - named for the Polish and Czech immigrants who settled here - only one or two houses are occupied. The rest are boarded up and slowly rotting.

"This is what you get when lenders run rampant," said Mark Seifert, executive director of a local nonprofit, the East Side Organizing Project, referring to what critics call "predatory" lending practices prevalent during the U.S. property boom.

Walking the area recently, Seifert pointed out the street corner where on Sept 1, 2007, Asteve'e "Cookie" Thomas, 12, wandered into a gunfight between drug dealers who had occupied empty houses in area. She was on the way home after buying candy. She bled to death on a neighbor's porch.

<snip>

"What we needed here was meaningful regulation," said Jim Rokakis, county treasurer for Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland. "What we got was the Wild West of lending."

Cleveland and other U.S. cities are now blighted with thousands of abandoned homes, most stripped of anything of value. And the rot is spreading to wealthy suburbs.

...more...

[Dr.Phool]

31. About 5-1/2 years ago, Cleveland tried to regulate predatory lenders.

They just happened to be owned by all the major banks. The major banks then yanked ALL mortgage lending in the city of Cleveland. They wouldn't make a mortgage (1st or 2nd) to anybody in Cleveland, for anything. I had my home sold at the time, and the deal fell through because they buyer couldn't get a loan anywhere.

I tried to get a 2nd mortgage on the house to buy my place in Florida. My bank wouldn't even talk to me. And I have top-tier credit.

After Cleveland repealed the lending laws, it took me another 4 years to sell that house, in a good neighborhood, at a substantial loss.

[UpInArms]

29. Commentary: Resignation of top GAO official directly impacts your portfolio

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ultimate-sell-signal/story.aspx?guid=%7BD566230C%2DF9D9%2D4384%2DB64E%2DE9B480D2B23F%7D&dist=MostReadHome

SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- The resignation of America's unheeded and under-funded chief accountant and watchdog, along with the billion-dollar bullhorn he's been given, are the ultimate sell signals for America's stock investors.

David Walker, comptroller general of the General Accountability Office (GAO) has since 1998 been the objectively informed and outspoken critic of America's balance sheet. He has criticized supporting Iraq's dysfunctional government, pork barrel spending by Congress, unrealistic "universal health care plans" we can ill-afford or support, the escalating risks of huge deficits, fiscal vulnerability to hostile foreign governments, and a lack of will to reform our government.

"David Walker has proven that one person can make a difference," Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., said in a release. "As Comptroller General for the last decade, he has been a tireless and effective advocate for the need to make our nation's long-term fiscal situation a priority."

Facing indifference on the Hill and unrealistic spending promises, Walker is resigning with five years still remaining in his term to head the newly formed Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Peterson, senior chairman of The Blackstone Group and Commerce secretary in the Nixon administration, has pledged an astounding startup budget for the foundation of $1 billion.

<snip>

When the nation's best-informed watchdog resigns and few are acting on his recommendations on his "Fiscal Wake-Up Tour," it's time to reconsider over-optimistic domestic stock investments and look elsewhere, or bet against the U.S. market.

...more...

[donkeyotay]

57. The "ultimate sell signals for America's stock investors"

That Walker, respected but still republican, is going to work for Blackstone, the folks who IPO'd and promptly lost half of the publick's money?

"Investors who bought Blackstone partnership units when the firm went public last June have lost about half their investment." (from UIA post above)

Here's the ultimate sell signal. In this Ponzi game where money insiders dump their goldmines on the publick after they've removed the ore, VISA is being IPO'd. Run, I say RUN for the hills.

[DemReadingDU]

33. Fleckenstein: A little 'magic' won't fix debt insurers

2/25/08 Splitting monolines into high-risk and low-risk companies is only a partial solution to one particular part of the financial system's much larger bubble trouble. by Bill Fleckenstein

Lately, there's been no shortage of chatter about one particular casualty of the credit bubble, the monoline insurers. As the news goes, they'll be split up into bad company/good company entities, and this "magic wand" will save the day.

It will not, for a reason best articulated by a reader of my daily column:

"What people really don't understand is that a Bad Co. and Good Co. solution is only a partial solution. This Reuters article is a perfect example. . . . An AAA Good Co. would solve most problems as they pertain to the municipal bond market.

"What people overlook is that there also has to be an AAA rated Bad Co. Bad Co. is the gigantic pink elephant in the room that everyone either ignores or fails to recognize. Bad Co. is effectively the credit enhancement insurance company of the Pandora's Box of the financial community. Who in their right mind would put capital in that, given what is now known?

"Think about it. If all the stuff covered by 'mark to make believe' accounting loses its accounting treatment because it is no longer AAA rated, is there really going to be anyone around left to sue? Will there even be a banking system? I wish I was joking. It will take a printing press to capitalize Bad Co. to afford it a AAA rating."


more...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/ALittleMagicWontFixDebtInsurers.aspx

[Roland99]

41. 11:12am - Bulls love mediocrity

Dow 12,478.79 +97.77
Nasdaq 2,316.45 +13.10
S&P 500 1,360.73 +7.62
10 YR 3.88% +0.09
Oil $98.50 $-0.31
Gold $938.00 $-9.80


Housing data wasn't as bad as expected so, hey, let's throw a party!

[Demeter]

44. The Market Displays The Effects of Defibrillation

nothing subtle about it.

[Hugin]

45. ~11:45: Nice lead in to today's musical interlude... "Lonely Bull"

The version I was thinking of was by Jim Last, but, you could think of Herb Alpert, too.


Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12443.87 +62.85 +0.51%
• NASDAQ 2311.17 +7.82 +0.34%
• S&P 500 1357.39 +4.28 +0.32%

Anybody, who believes 'bailed out' credit ratings, deserves whatever they get themselves into.

[UpInArms]

46. "The national homes market is in the worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s"

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2536981720080225

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of existing home sales in the United States fell in January to an annual rate of 4.89 million units while prices slid and inventories swelled, the National Association of Realtors said on Monday in a report that showed continued weakness in the homes market.

Economists polled by Reuters were expecting home resales to fall to a 4.80 million-unit pace from the 4.89 million-unit rate initially reported for December. The December sales pace was revised to a 4.91 million unit rate.

The inventory of homes for sale rose 5.5 percent to 4.19 million units at the end of January, which represents about 10.3 months' supply at the current sales pace. The national median home price fell 4.6 percent from a year ago to $201,100.

The national homes market is in the worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s but NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the market is "scratching the bottom" with sales holding at a deflated rate of around 5 million units for the past several months.

...more...

Heck of a job, Dimson!

[Robbien]

48. Countrywide not happy with news spotlight on its luxurious skiing extravaganza

so it cancels it

Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) canceled its annual ski party at the Rittz-Carlton Bachelor Gulch in Avon, Colorado, where the company puts up 30 of its most valued correspondent lenders (at $725+ per night) and treats them to skiing and $140 caviar and Kurobuta pork osso bucco at Wolfgang Puck's restaurant.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/25/countrywide-financial-puts-an-end-to-colorado-ski-junket/

It is surprising that Countrywide could be shamed into canceling. Countrywide having a conscious? Nah, not likely. Perhaps some big mucky muck at BoA put the kibosh on the big blowout.

[Demeter]

49. Running Scared--Go Spitzer!

[Ghost Dog]

61. European shares gain on banks, hopes of Ambac rescue

FRANKFURT, Feb 25 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Monday buoyed by financials and amid consolidation talk and hopes that a rescue for U.S. bond insurer Ambac Financial Group (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was close.

Banks were the top performers, but among individual stocks, Switzerland's Roche (ROG.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) was one of the strongest positive weights on the European benchmark index , rising 4.5 percent after U.S. regulators approved its Avastin drug for treating advanced breast cancer.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index closed 1.7 percent higher at 1,342.26 points, the highest close since Feb. 4. Trading volumes were fairly thin, reaching only about 70 percent of the 30-day average.

The DJ Stoxx index of European banks rose 2.6 percent with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) rising 5 percent each and HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) up 2.4 percent.

"What we see is an overhang from Friday and hope that bond insurers may be rescued soon," said Matthias Joerss, index expert at Sal.Oppenheim, adding that he did not expect the recovery to be a sustainable one.

"We gain what we've lost on Friday," he said. "We don't see a sustainable upside here."

U.S. markets rallied late on Friday -- after European markets had already finished the week lower -- on news that a rescue for Ambac may be announced on Monday or Tuesday.

However, a person briefed on the matter said on Monday after European markets closed that any deal to rescue the bond insurer would likely be signed early next week rather than today or tomorrow. Continued...

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL258937520080225?rpc=611

[TrogL]

62. Loonie Watch - the NOW WHAT?!?!? edition

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-01-15 Tuesday, January 15 0.983574 USD
2008-01-16 Wednesday, January 16 0.976753 USD
2008-01-17 Thursday, January 17 0.971817 USD
2008-01-18 Friday, January 18 0.97144 USD
2008-01-21 Monday, January 21 0.97144 USD
2008-01-22 Tuesday, January 22 0.9758 USD
2008-01-23 Wednesday, January 23 0.972573 USD
2008-01-24 Thursday, January 24 0.99295 USD
2008-01-25 Friday, January 25 0.995619 USD
2008-01-28 Monday, January 28 0.995818 USD
2008-01-29 Tuesday, January 29 1.0022 USD
2008-01-30 Wednesday, January 30 1.00644 USD
2008-01-31 Thursday, January 31 0.998203 USD
2008-02-01 Friday, February 1 1.00614 USD
2008-02-04 Monday, February 4 1.00735 USD
2008-02-05 Tuesday, February 5 0.995718 USD
2008-02-06 Wednesday, February 6 0.997705 USD
2008-02-07 Thursday, February 7 0.988631 USD
2008-02-08 Friday, February 8 1.0006 USD
2008-02-11 Monday, February 11 0.998203 USD
2008-02-12 Tuesday, February 12 1.00371 USD
2008-02-13 Wednesday, February 13 1.0008 USD
2008-02-14 Thursday, February 14 1.00331 USD
2008-02-15 Friday, February 15 0.998702 USD
2008-02-18 Monday, February 18 0.998702 USD
2008-02-19 Tuesday, February 19 0.984349 USD
2008-02-20 Wednesday, February 20 0.981547 USD
2008-02-21 Thursday, February 21 0.991768 USD
2008-02-22 Friday, February 22 0.984737 USD
2008-02-25 Monday, February 25 1.0018 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9957 1.0030 0.9957 1.0030 +0.0179 +1.78% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9956 1.0037 0.9956 1.0026 +0.0182 +1.80% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9968 1.0014 0.9968 1.0008 +0.0182 +1.80% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9990 0.9990 0.9990 0.9991 +0.0183 +1.81% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9750 0.9750 0.9750 0.9972 +0.0183 +1.81% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9810 0.9825        0.9953 +0.0183 +1.82% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        0.9934 +0.0183 +1.82%  

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.H08 Mar 2008 0.88340                 0.92150 -0.01045 -1.21%   
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.H08 Mar 2008 0.90420                 0.92435 +0.00625 +0.72%   
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.H08 Mar 2008 107.000 107.000 107.000 108.240 +3.055   +2.73%      
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.H08 Mar 2008 1.60580 1.60580 1.60580 1.60275 -0.01030 -0.62%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H08 Mar 2008 0.7545  0.7545  0.7530  0.7545  +0.0007  +0.09%    
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.H08 Mar 2008 1.47880 1.47880 1.47880 1.47695 -0.02625 -1.82%   
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H08 Mar 2008 159.400 160.000 159.350 160.000 +1.875   +1.16%    
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H08 Mar 2008 1.4658  1.4658  1.4658  1.4814  +0.0006  +0.04%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range above the 50% retracement level of 2007's rally crossing at 97.84. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.67 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of 2007's rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 99.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 100.75. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 98.02. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 97.84.


Analysis

C'mon, you know I had to post. I'm supposed to be in a meeting right now but I see a two cent jump and I've got to figure out :wtf:.

The blather-bot has its good days and its bad days and today I don't even understand what it's talking about. I wish on those days it'd just say "I have no fucking clue whatsover".

Looking at the rest of the LBN threads, it looks like the greenback's gone in the toilet because of something to do with IMF gold, which is probably going to drive the gold bugs :crazy: or else they're be :bounce: or :party:. Note, however, that the Euro has NOT kept pace. What's up with that?

I think I'll just :popcorn:.

[TrogL]

64. Closing blather

Blather

The March Canadian Dollar gapped up and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.57 on Monday signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 100.37. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 100.55. First support is today's low crossing at 99.56 then today's gap crossing at 98.95.

Analysis

I dunno. I'm seeing a dip in the greenback while people figure out what the gold bugs are going to do, then things should be back to normal. Could be as early as tomorrow.

[UpInArms]

66. delusional closing for the day

Dow 12,570.22 189.20 (1.53%)
Nasdaq 2,327.48 24.13 (1.05%)
S&P 500 1,371.80 18.69 (1.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.902% 0.112

NYSE Volume 3,866,345,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,157,481,250

The new week began like the prior week ended, which is to say news regarding the bond insurers sparked another afternoon rally effort that led to substantive gains for the major indices.

Briefly, news crossed the wires around 2:30 p.m. ET that Standard & Poor's took MBIA (MBI 14.58, +2.40) off CreditWatch and assigned a negative outlook. Additionally, the ratings agency affirmed the 'AAA' financial strength rating of Ambac Financial (ABK 12.41, +1.70), yet said the company remains on CreditWatch with negative implications.

The decision by Standard & Poor's not to downgrade the ratings at this time helped mitigate some of the worst fears about the potential for a wave of counter party-related write-downs at financial companies.

This development still doesn't qualify as an all-clear signal regarding the issues facing the bond insurers, but it is certainly the type of news that creates a sense that things are headed in the right direction. Fittingly, the 10-year Treasury note sold off in response while the financial sector, which was down as much as 1.8% earlier in the day, led the rally effort and ended up 1.2% for the session.

Prior to the late-day fireworks, the stock market was trading close to unchanged, with participants lacking any real conviction on either the buy side or the sell side despite some M&A activity that included a $2 billion offer from Electronic Arts (ERTS 47.14, -2.60) to acquire Take-Two Interactive (TTWO 26.89, +9.53) and a $2.4 billion private equity buyout of Getty Images (GYI 31.67, +7.22).

Worries about deteriorating earnings prospects for the financial sector that were touched off by estimate cuts and downgrades for several companies in the space cast a pall on the proceedings. Goldman Sachs (GS 177.36, -0.35) was a focal point in this respect after The Wall Street Journal published a cautious-sounding article on its diminished earnings power.

Speaking of diminished earnings power, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW 24.50, +0.91) reported a 33% decline in fourth quarter net earnings and provided a fiscal 2008 EPS outlook of $1.50 to $1.58 that marks a 17% decline at the midpoint from fiscal 2007.

The stock of Lowe's held up well in Monday's trading, though, on the notion that the worst of its earnings difficulties has already been priced into the stock. Separately, its stock also garnered support from a better than expected existing home sales report for January.

Shortly after the start of trading it was reported that existing home sales dipped just 0.4% to an annual rate of 4.89 million, a 9-year low. Economists were expecting a 1.8% decline.

The inventory of unsold homes rose to 10.3 months versus 9.7 months in December, which is a clear sign that the housing market is still quite weak. Nevertheless, the "upside surprise" in January provided a modicum of hope that the market is beginning to bottom.

The latter view gave the broader market a bit of a boost for a time, but the bounce was short-lived and it looked as if the indices might limp into the close. Then, the bond insurer news hit and the market's mood was again lifted.

Today's gains marked the best percentage gains for the Dow and S&P this month.DJ30 +189.20 NASDAQ +24.13 SP500 +18.69 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 984/1998/2.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 766/2389/1.47 bln

3:30 pm : All 10 economic sectors remain in the green and advancing issues outpace decliners by 2-to-1 on the NYSE. Stocks had pulled off their earlier highs, but the market is trending back to higher ground in choppy action.

Materials (+1.9%) is the only sector to achieve a gain year-to-date. The sector is up just 0.6% in 2008.

Monsanto (MON 120.90, +4.23) and Alcoa (AA 38.64, +2.09) are providing materials with leadership. DJ30 +145.88 NASDAQ +18.02 SP500 +13.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1069/1861/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 874/2249/1.16 bln

3:00 pm : The stock market spiked on news that bond insurers MBIA (MBI 13.82, +1.64) and Ambac (ABK 11.44, +0.73) had their AAA credit ratings reaffirmed by Standard & Poor's. MBIA remains on the rating agency's negative watch list, but is no longer under review for a possible downgrade at this time. Ambac, however, remains under review for a possible downgrade.

The announcement prompted a rush of buying and short-covering trades, but some of the initial exuberance has faded as the market sees the challenges surrounding the bond insurers have not yet abated. Still, the development creates a sense that things are moving in the right direction.

Stocks are off their session highs, but are holding on to gains.DJ30 +126.18 NASDAQ +12.18 SP500 +9.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1165/1747/1.57 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 994/2105/1.02 bln

[citizen snips]

67. Getty Images Agrees to $2.1B Buyout

SEATTLE (AP) -- Getty Images Inc., the leading seller of stock photography and video footage, said Monday it has agreed to a $2.1 billion buyout from the private equity group Hellman & Friedman LLC.

Ten-year-old Getty, whose nearest competitor is privately held Corbis Corp., put itself up for sale in January after taking a beating on Wall Street for two years.

After reaching a high above $94 per share in November 2005, Getty's shares tumbled 77 percent to $21.80 in Jan. 18 of this year, as higher costs ate away at profits. Four days later, the Seattle-based company said it would consider strategic alternatives to boost shareholder value.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080225/getty_images_sale.html

[citizen snips]

68. Nasdaq to Delist Bankrupt Sharper Image

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Sharper Image Corp. says its shares will stop trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market because of concerns raised by the specialty retailer's recent bankruptcy.

Nasdaq plans to delist Sharper Image's stock this Friday. After that, Sharper Image shares still may trade in the over-the-counter market. The shares fell 9 cents to close at 47 cents Monday.

Sharper Image filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last week after three years of sinking sales saddled the San Francisco-based company with more than $135 million in losses. Management plans to close nearly half of Sharper Image's 184 stores.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080225/sharper_image_stock.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

69. Analyst Sees Velcade Sales Doubling

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc. rose almost 6 percent Monday, as a Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst said the biopharmaceutical company is on the verge of doubling sales of its main driver, the blood cancer drug Velcade.

In December, Millenium shares surged after a late-stage study of multiple myeloma drug Velcade quadrupled complete remission rates when used as an initial treatment. Velcade is already approved in the U.S. to treat patients who have taken at least one treatment, but the FDA agreed to speed its review as an initial treatment. Approval is now expected around the middle of this year.

FBR's Jim Reddoch maintained his "Outperform" rating and $20 price target on the stock, saying first-line approval opens Millenium up to an entirely new market and one in which patients would receive nearly double the number of Velcade injections they currently receive as a second-line treatment.

Reddoch expects Velcade sales to beat the $345 million top end of guidance this year. Millennium has forecast sales of $320 million to $345 million, representing growth of 20 percent to 30 percent.

more..
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080225/millenium_pharma_mover.html?.v=2

[citizen snips]

70. Treasurys Lower After Home Sales Report

NEW YORK (AP) -- Treasury prices fell Monday after Standard & Poor's affirmed the ratings of troubled bond insurers MBIA Inc and Ambac Financial Group Inc.

The news allows the insurers to hold onto the "AAA" ratings they need to continue to insure municipal bonds. It also buys Ambac more time in its efforts to secure bailout funding. There has been great uncertainty in the market whether Ambac will be able to receive its funding and avoid a ratings downgrade.

"The details of a bailout deal may not be hammered out, but Ambac has gotten more time and that is what it was looking for," said Mirko Mikelic, a fixed income portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management.

The ratings affirmations put additional pressure on Treasury prices, which already were pressured by housing data that some analysts thought was not as bad as it might have been. The ratings news also sent a hesitant stock market into rally mode.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080225/bonds.html?.v=6

[citizen snips]

71. Existing Home Sales Decline

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes fell for the sixth straight month in January, dropping to the slowest sales pace on record. Median home prices were also down and many analysts predicted further price declines in the months ahead given high levels of unsold homes.

The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 0.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units. That was the slowest sales pace, going back to 1999, and was seen as evidence that the steepest slump in housing in a quarter-century has yet to hit bottom.

The median price of a home sold in January slid to $201,100, a drop of 4.6 percent from a year ago. Particularly alarming, analysts said, was the fact that the inventory of unsold homes jumped to a 10.3 months' supply, meaning it would take that long to sell the 4.19 million homes on the market at the January sales pace.

That was up from 9.7 months in December and just below a two-decade high of 10.5 months hit in October. During the peak of the housing boom in 2005, the supply of homes relative to sales stood at 4.5 months.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080225/economy.html?.v=31