Democrats expect no knockouts

[Up2Late]

Source: Houston Chronicle

March 3, 2008, 11:43PM

Democrats expect no knockouts

By R.G. RATCLIFFE
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau

AUSTIN — The monthlong political fight in Texas and Ohio concludes in today's primaries, but the campaigns of U.S. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama signaled Monday that neither expects a knockout punch for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The expectations were lowered because the polls in Texas and Ohio showed the race was too close to call. Plus, the complex system of Texas delegates being chosen by both popular vote and through caucuses makes it possible for the popular vote winner to come up short in delegates.

A tracking poll Monday showed Clinton leading Obama 46.6 percent to 43.5 percent in Texas and essentially tied in Ohio: Clinton, 44 percent; Obama, 44.4 percent.

The margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in both surveys. The Houston Chronicle, Reuters, C-Span tracking polls were conducted by Zogby International....

Read more: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5589736.html

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Plus, Obama would have to win 85% of the remaining delegates to win outright, which ain't gonna happen, so it's time to start mending fences Obama Fans.

[emilyg]

1. TY

[Gore1FL]

2. Once againthough.. knockout is relative...

Hillary needs to close the delegate gap by at least 80. Even if she had 55% of the super delegates, Obama could win 2025 with slightly less than 50% of the remaining pledged delegates (including the 3-4-08 contests). She has to do some major delegate pickups tomorrow to make the math work for her.

[lapfog_1]

3. Why?

Which candidate is ahead about 160 pledged delegates?

If it's a tie tomorrow in Texas and Ohio... Obama nets a few more delegates than Clinton (for a number of reasons having to do with the way the Texas primacaucus is being run).

RI looks to be a tie... even if Hillary wins by 10 points... same number of delegates!!!

Obama wins delegates in Vermont. Probably 5 more than Clinton, maybe as many as 7.

Net result from tomorrow, Clinton wins 3 states, Obama is up 10 or more delegates. And that's using the poll numbers YOU think are so great for your candidate.

So off we go to the rest of the states.

Obama is going to win more delegates in those remaining contests than Hillary... period. Hillary doesn't even have a ground game in some of those "insignificant" states.

So we go to the convention with Obama up 180 to 200 delegates on Clinton.

Do you REALLY think the Supers are going to overturn the decision of the voters? Even if you cut my estimate in HALF so that Obama is only up 100 pledged delegates... do you believe that the Supers will overturn the will of the people? Seriously?

Perhaps it's time for Hillary supporters to stop calling us Obamatons or Obamites or kool-aid drinkers and all of the rest of the crap... and start mending fences yourselves.

I start mending fences when your candidate is in the pledged delegate lead. Hows that. Not that I have ever called you folks names, not like you folks do with almost every post...

My favorite post recently that demonstrates my point...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4833297

[splat]

4. Obama has had a honeymoon with the press

His sailing is not likely to be so smooth any more.

If the momentum is hers, and he's, say, called as a defense witness by Rezko, he won't look so electable any more. He's in for some rough weather ahead, and if he can't put her away today on his third try, (perhaps grudging) respect for her resilience and fortitude will build.

The function of the superdelegates is to save the party from a candidate who may have early numbers but, as the convention nears, doesn't look like the strongest nominee any more.

This one's got a lot of road before the rubber wears out.

p.s. I'd be surprised if Rhode Island was close. Most of Obama's student fans there are registered to vote elsewhere.

[lapfog_1]

5. Note that I gave Hillary RI by 10 points.

Delegate wise, that's a tie. So sad.

As for being called as a witness by Rezko... no, the witness lists by both sides have been announced. Obama isn't on them. Obama isn't a witness or target of this prosecution.

Of course, if you want to play hardball on the unethical friends front, look no further than convicted felon Norman Hsu and his fake campaign money raising efforts for Clinton (circumventing ceiling amounts by using fake people and fake addresses to route campaign contributions to Hillary... that's right, Hillary, not Bill). It was all over the San Francisco papers a while back, I'm sure it can be resurrected.

And IF the Super Delegates overturn the will of the people, that will split the party. Count on it.

Not to mention that IF Hillary wins 3 out of 4 today (which I also gave Hillary in my analysis), there will be a string of wins for Obama between now and the convention... punctuated by occasional Hillary wins... like Guam.

Hillary hasn't EVER closed the gap when Obama has been ahead in the polls. It's always been the other way EXCEPT for New Hampshire, when Obama was ahead briefly after Iowa. Hillary has been the poll leader and presumptive nominee of the party for two years. Why couldn't she cruise to easy victories if she is the stronger candidate? Hmmm?

[splat]

7. The past is not the future -- the sea changes

The press honeymoon was real, and now it will be harder. Zeitgeist and perception and, most importantly, news.

Rezko is on trial, close enough to Obama to help him buy his house; Hsu is old news, money repaid.


History is fickle. George McGovern's antiwar candidacy was dead the moment his running mate Thomas Eagleton had to announce mid-campaign he'd been treated for mental illness. Hearing that news on the car radio was a stomach sinker.


The superdelegates step in if the consensus changes. By that time, if it were to come to that, most of the party would shake their heads and agree it was regrettably necessary.

[lapfog_1]

8. And you call US the kool-aid drinkers...

you are on some serious stuff there.

Rezko is going nowhere.

Hsu isn't Old News, it hasn't been picked up yet... repaid or not, Hillary will have a hard time explaining why she knows SO MANY felons.

And you are thinking that the Super Delegates are her saviors. They aren't.

Richardson has already stated that whoever has THE MOST pledged delegates after today should be the nominee... and that will be Senator Barack Obama.

The Supers are going to step in all right... step in to put a halt to Hillary's destructive campaign. They don't like her telling folks that McCain is more fit to be President than Obama, which she did yesterday. Watch this video of her doing it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou4JnWQsxKw

And you folks still need to mend fences...

Like I said, if Hillary takes over the lead in pledged delegates, I make the first move, though I have NOT called anyone names or insulted their judgment or said that Hillary supporters were racist... However, I've been called a kool-aid drinker, a cult member, a child (I'm 51), stupid, misogynist, and "not a True(tm) Democrat". All because I support someone else for President and call his opponents here on their lies and deceits about him.

[ikojo]

18. Obama needs to bring up Mark Rich and the fact that

Hillary's husband pardoned him. Is this the type of governance we should expect from a third Clinton administration?

[Gore1FL]

6. She still has a nearly impossible task...

She has to win over 50% of all remaining delegates and convince at least 55% of the super delegates to join her. That is especially hard considering the recent wedging employed in a likely failed attempt to win OH and TX with large enough margins to be realistically viable in a mathematically sense.

[lark]

17. Fair thread

except it only addresses rabid Hillary fans. What about some of the rest of us who have only become Hillary fans by default but who have always distrusted Obama because of his vagueness, unfair favorable treatment by the media, hidden women denigrating comments, dislike of the "Saint Obama" atmosphere, unease with his inexperience and arrogance and lack of specifics? I did not start out as a Hillary person, and voted for Edwards. Richardson was my 2nd choice, and I've only come to Hillary by default. While I will vote for Obama if he's the nominee, he has a very long way to go to establish trust or respect with me. I really fear he will not be a good GE candidate because he's had no real vetting and walks out when asked unfavorable questions. I've said it before, if he or his supporters thinks this is heat, wait until the fire is turned up - this is nothing compared to what the right wing attack squads will do to him. I think the msm has been promoting him BECAUSE they know he's weak in the general election. I really am praying that he is tougher and has more depth than I think right now and that he will be able to win me and other non-fans of his with specifics and that he will not just cut and run when under real fire. The primary objective is to win the White House and keep McCain, all war all the time, out!

[Demeter]

9. I Think The Voters Are Being Coy

There is a strong movement to freeze out the pollsters, to politely lie to those who ask questions that are nobody's business, and to conceal one's intentions.

Tomorrow is soon enough.

I'm still waiting for Michigan to revote, or caucus, so that my voice can be heard.....

[avrdream]

10. A bit late to mend fences.

Shoulda thought about that about a month ago.

[Up2Late]

13. No, it IS the right time and they must start NOW!

As someone wrote above, the Press honeymoon for Obama is over and they are going to start tearing him apart limb by limb now, which is why Hillary MUST NOT quit now or any time until things are sorted out at the Democratic convention.

For two reasons, it helps split the attention of the so-called MSM and it splits the resources of the Republican Hate Machine.

But mostly we need to remember our History, I and most of the middle-aged Democrats here have seen this pattern before, everyone very excited about what most of us think of as a great NEW or YOUNG candidate, only to watch that "young, new" candidate lose their appeal and the less popular candidates drop out and fade away as we get closer to the November Election.

I watched it happen with Gary Hart, Howard Dean, Walter Mondale, even Michael Dukakis John Kerry and George McGovern, they where all just as popular as Obama is (or was about 2 weeks ago), but by the time of the November Election arrived, they were "the candidate we have and must vote for..."

That's why Hillery and and John McCain have the advantage, she has had every part of her life pulled apart for the last 17 years (since 1991) and the Republican Hate Machine has found NOTHING that would stick to her and she still has more than half of the old guard Democrats who support her. As soon as the Republican Hate Machine ramps up (as it's starting to do now), all the "swing voters" and Republican sheep are going to move back to the "Republican candidate we have to vote for..." and vote for John McCain in November or not vote at all.

Yes, you heard me Obama Fans, once Hillary is the Democratic Nominee, MOST of the Republicans who have been voting for Obama in these Primary Elections will move back toward McCain, but he has his Republican detractors too, and won't get All the people, who usually vote Republican, out to vote for him.

What the Obama people need to do RIGHT NOW is Damage Control, so that in 8 years, when he really does have the experience required to win a National Election, we will ALL have an unbeatable candidate in Obama for the 2016 Election.

[elocs]

11. Since Edwards dropped out, I have only been an Obama supporter for a month now.

I support Obama and I am not a Hillary-hater just because I do not back her. Neither am I a cult member or kool aid drinker or Obamamaniac. I wonder how many young people and others who support Obama like being labeled that way? Somehow they are given the message that it is some kind of sin if they are inspired or excited by their choice of candidate. I wonder how many of these people will be joyful or even reluctant Clinton voters if she somehow gets the nomination that once was only hers to lose after they have been marginalized and put down by her supporters?

There sure does need to be some fence mending.

[EFerrari]

12. People still call themselves Deaniacs and with affection.

I don't think the slur really works on kids.

[Up2Late]

15. Good point, but I think it's "the kids" who really are the ones who are starting to meltdown.

I see a LOT of immaturity among the fanatical Obama posters, looks like this might be most of their's first big election.

Those of us who have been though the last five to seven or even nine big election, in which we lost 6 of those 9 (or more correctly, lost 4 and had two stolen) have seen this pattern before.

[EFerrari]

16. Yep. I'm glad Skinner set up a Wreck Room.

:)

[Political Heretic]

14. He's already got the nomination in hand.

She can't catch him in pledged delegates without a literal miracle.

If he win's either texas or ohio today, its over. Democratic elders are already publicly calling for her to quit.

She's already failed to achieve the big wins she needs, and its to a good sign to anyone that she's blow 20+ point leads in these states.

The only real question is will she stay in with no chance purely to sabotage the Obama campaign or will she put the party before her own ego and stand aside.

[Skittles]

19. with the big word being

"IF" :o