Growing bankruptcy filings a grim omen

[flashl]

Source: Los Angeles Times

The consumer total rises 37% year over year. More is expected.

WASHINGTON -- American consumers' bankruptcy filings jumped 15% in February from the previous month and a steeper rise is looming because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, the American Bankruptcy Institute said Monday.

Consumer bankruptcy filings in February totaled 76,120, up from 66,050 recorded in January, the nonpartisan research group said.

The February number was 37% higher than in the same month a year ago, according to the institute.

"February's bankruptcy spike -- the highest single month since the 2005 law changes -- forecasts the start of more to come for the balance of 2008," said Samuel Gerdano, the institute's executive director.

LA Times

Read more: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bankrupt4mar04,1,4096651.story

[bronxiteforever]

1. Kick & R-

[bemildred]

2. Let's not forget the people who never bother to file because they have nothing to protect.

Bankruptcy costs money, not everyone can afford it.

[Lint Head]

3. The Bush crime family and the past Republican majority are directly

responsible for this shit. it's not the 'economy stupid'. It's the stupid lying fuck in the White House. :dem:

[Zorra]

5. Yep. Republicans are an imminent threat and a clear and present danger to the USA.

We should declare war on them.

This is not a joke.

[durablend]

10. If McCain gets in, we're finished

I think the damage is deep enough that either Hillary or Obama may not be able to fix all of it, but I'm pretty certain this country is done for if McCain gets in.

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. There's been nothing BUT grim omens

and STILL people aren't paying attention. I feel like I'm watching the collapse of America in slow motion and that most of the rest of the country won't notice until there is nothing but rubble around them.

[Lorien]

6. I know what you mean. When I mention these things to friends

they just say "why are you trying to bring us down"? They don't see that I'm trying to prepare them for what's coming so that they can prepare for it themselves. It's upsetting to say the least.

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. I am a teacher in a mid-sized America city,

And I've been trying to talk to the other members of my team about what is going to happen, because it will disproportionately effect our students. When I try to bring it up, you can see their eyes glaze over. They don't want to talk about it and they don't want to think about it, even though many of them are already being effected by it.

It sucks. I feel like Chicken Little.

[flashl]

7. It’s certainly eerie

waiting for the reaction of the flock. And, wondering what's going to happen when everyone realize something is terribly wrong.

[durablend]

9. Another grim prediction

I think we're going to see the poor and a large part of the middle class (the McJob/Wal-Mart employee crowd at least) almost completely wiped out within the next couple of years. I just don't see how those of us are going to survive what with food/energy/essentials prices likely to double if not triple. Short of a miracle I don't think who's in the WH will make much difference either.

[flashl]

11. There is no mystery of what the future could look like

here with slave wage jobs. Without the miracle you spoke of, the future can be viewed when looking at the results of modern indenture servitude in some U.S. urban centers for the past 20 years. Resources were drained from them years ago; Individuals trapped in them when jobs and businesses left were blamed for their misfortune although businesses and politicians promise of re-training to obtain new skills for jobs never materialized. Years later, a few McJobs were finally created but not enough to meet their needs. There are plenty of examples similar to the urban centers described across the country.

[fasttense]

12. Looks like we are about on par with the bankruptcy rate of the Republican Great Depression

Year/Farm/Wage Earner/Merchant/Manufacturer
1929/.091/.058/.690/.508
1930 .084 .068 .700 .494
1931 .069 .064 .673 .453
1932 .081 .065 .783 .562
Average: Farm .081/ Wage Earner .064/ Merchant .712/ Manufacturer.505

The average of the average is 0.3405

The LA Times article doesn't break it down so nicely but they say 1 million consumers are expected to file for bankruptcy in 2008. Assuming every American is a consumer then that gives you a bankruptcy rate of 0.333. Obviously not every American is a consumer so your population really isn't 300 million but if you reduce the population of consumers you increase the rate. So .333 is the lowest it could be.

Maybe some expert statistician can make better use and more sense of these numbers.

The link is a pdf file http://academic2.american.edu/~mhansen/Invited/hansen%20assa%2005.pdf