CNN: Clinton projected to win Texas primary

[Apollo11]

Source: CNN

Sen. Hillary Clinton will win the Texas Democratic primary, CNN projects. However, results are not complete in the Texas Democratic caucuses, also held Tuesday night.

Earlier, CNN projected Clinton would win an Ohio primary that was considered critical to keeping alive her White House hopes alive.

With 92 percent of precincts reporting in Ohio, Clinton had 55 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent for Sen. Barack Obama. CNN made the projection based on those results and exit polling data.

"For everyone across America who has been counted out but refused to be knocked out, for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you," Clinton said to a cheering crowd in Columbus, Ohio.



Read more: www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/04/march.4.dems/index.html

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Here are CNN's latest numbers from the Texas primary (with 97% reporting):

Clinton 1,430,066 (51%)

Obama 1,333,401 (48%)

www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

[aquart]

1. The caucuses are tightening 52 Obama, 48 Clinton at 36%.

[jasmine621]

2. If she could pull this caucus out, time to really celebrate!!!

Obama looks weary. Hillary looks fresh.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[speedbird]

4. the delegate totals are ???

I'm kinda guessing that Obama wins,
but what do I know.

[rpannier]

7. That's my question

Because it seems like you have to be a half-crazy, drunken, math genius-hermit to figure out how delegates are dispersed in these things.

[JeffWasHere]

5. When you actually count the delegates...

It doesn't look like much really changed on Tuesday. It's sort of difficult to pin down the net gain in delegates Hillary got, but it looks to be in the neighborhood of 15-20 (ABC News shows she netted 12 in Ohio, 2 in Texas not counting the caucus--which should actually give a couple back to Obama when they finish counting today, 5 in Rhode Island, but a net loss of 3 in Vermont, but ABC News seems to have some gaps in the delegate count, so I'm just making a wild guess). I'm also guessing the Obama gets most or all of that back in Wyoming (March 8) and Mississippi (March 11), so they will be right back where they started come time for the Pennsylvania primary, which is not until April 22. What a total mess. I can't even imagine how many trips both candidates will make there. I'm from Ohio, and I know that the Ohio vote was largely swayed by our hugely popular governor (my former congressman) Ted Strickland. He is a big Hillary supporter, and he made huge points for her in his old congressional stomping grounds in eastern and southeastern Ohio. She took in 80% of the vote in some of his old counties. So, Governor Ed Rendell has also endorsed Hillary, but he is not nearly as popular in PA as Strickland is in Ohio. Plus, Barack and Hillary can concentrate exclusively on Pennsylvania for more than a month. Hillary is only leading in the recent polls in PA by 4-6%, and that is before Barack has even started campaigning there. I don't see either of them netting any great gains in Pennsylvania, despite the enormous amount of time they both will spend campaigning there, although I fully expect him to win PA by a little. This really is going to be a fight all the way to the convention, and the strange thing is that every single state (and even the non-states like Guam and Puerto Rico) will be important. I can't see them actually campaigning in Guam for 4 delegates, but I can picture a trip to Puerto Rico with 33 delegates at stake. I really wanted this election to be wrapped up by today, but now that we know this battle is going all the way to the convention, all those voters in the late-primary states will actually have a say in the outcome. Isn't democracy grand!

[JeffWasHere]

9. redoing the math on Ohio

Crazy me, I actually read the Ohio Dem. Party Delegate Selection Plan, and figured out what she won on Tuesday. The delegates are divided into 7 categories for supposedly a total of 162, but Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs-Jones qualifies in two of the categories, but she only gets one vote, so our delegate count is only 161. The 20 "superdelegates" (which are not really called that at all) are the governor (who is 100% for Hillary), our 8 Democratic members of Congress and Senate--minus Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, OH-11th, who is in the next group), 11 people picked from the Democratic National Committee--I'll give their names in a moment), and 2 extras picked by the Ohio Democratic Party Chairman). There are 141 delegates tied to the March 4th primary, divided into 3 groups. The first group contains 92 delegates, divided up among our 18 Congressional districts, with between 4 and 8 delegates per district. I did the math based on the latest figures from the Ohio Sec. of State's office, and came up with 48 delegates for Hillary and 44 for Barack. Then, there are two more groups of pledged delegates. The first group has 18, and you divide them up proportionately to the statewide vote. It looks like from the rules that you only include the votes for Hillary and Barack (not Edwards or other peripherals) to come up with the statewide percentage. I calculate the results as 55.238% for Hillary and 44.761% for Barack. Of the group of 18, Hillary gets 10 and Barack gets 8. Then there is another group of 31, divided up the same way, so Hillary gets 17 and Barack gets 14. I added them up, and get 75 for Hillary and 66 for Barack. Dailykos has it 76 for Hillary and 65 for Barack, but I checked my numbers again and I think I'm right.

Ok, so much for the pledged votes. As for the "superdelegates," it looks like Hillary has most of them locked up pretty well. I already mentioned the governor and the Democratic Congresspersons, who are: Charlie Wilson-6th, Marcia Kaptur-9th, Dennis-Kucinich-10th, Betty Sutton-13th, Tim Ryan-17th, Zack Space-18th, plus Senator Sherrod Brown. The delegates provided by the DNC are: Chris Redfern (Ohio Dem. Party Chair), Rhine McLin (ODP Vice Chair and Dayton Mayor, who officially endorsed Barack), Ron Malone (union leader), Bill Burga (union leader), Sonny Nardi (Teamsters, officially endorse Barack Obama), Mark Mallory (Mayor of Cincinnati, officially endorsed Barack), Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, OH-11, (Congresswoman and DNC delegate at the same time), Patricia Moss (union leader), Enid Goubeaux (Darke County Democratic Party Chair), Joyce Beatty (Ohio House Minority Leader). Plus there are 2 more delegates hand-picked by Chris Redfern, ODP Chair. One of these, I think, is David Wilhelm (former Chair of the DNC, former head of Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, and who has publicly endorsed...Barack Obama). I can't find the name of the other one. Of these 20 people, very few who aren't already committed are likely to go for Barack now, especially given Hillary's big win in the primary. Strangely, though, I think only 6 can be clearly put in Hillary's camp: Gov. Strickland, Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, Ron Malone, Bill Burga, Pat Moss, and Enid Goubeaux. Kucinich will probably vote for Barack, and this also goes for the mayors of Cincinnati and Dayton, and clearly Mr. Wilhelm and Mr. Nardi. That leaves 9 toss-ups. I have a hard time believing too many other uncommitted delegates will go for Barack now that Hillary actually won, and by a pretty good margin. I'll give Barack 1 toss-up delegate, just to be fair. So, I would put Hillary at +8 here (6 clearly for Hillary, plus 8 of the 9 toss-ups, which is 14 for her versus 6 for Barack).

So, upon further reflection, I'd say that Hillary picked up a net gain of 9 + 8 = +17. If I use Dailykos calculations, it would be 11 + 8 = +19. Anyway, I think I was pretty close in my original estimate, but this now includes the "superdelegates" as well. So, Hillary actually did worse than I originally thought, because I wasn't factoring in the superdelegates in my first guess.

For one last piece of math, I'm going to figure how much Hillary would have gotten had the delegates simply been apportioned by the popular vote. I'm going to weed out votes for Edwards and Kucinich and such, and just do head to head, Hillary vs. Barack numbers. According to the Secretary of State website, Hillary received 1,212,077 votes and Barack got 982,172. This is a total of 2,194,249. So, Hillary got 55.238% and Barack got 44.761%. Using the total of 161 delegates (well, it should be 162, except for that pesky thing with Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, but I'll use the lower number). 161 x 55.238% = 88.93 (round it to 89 for Hillary), leaving 72 for Barack. This is a net difference in favor of Hillary of +17. Oh. My. God. That is exactly what I am calculating as the net gain Hillary will actually get using the bizzare formulas of the Ohio Democratic Party. I did not rig these numbers ahead of time. It just worked out this way. Maybe our primary system is not so bad after all.

[mysteryman2]

6. Ladies First

[struggle4progress]

8. ... In Texas, Clinton won four more delegates .. in the primary. But Obama trimmed Clinton's

lead to a single Texas delegate in the .. caucuses ...

Obama Keeps Delegate Lead
AP foreign
Wednesday March 5 2008
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7360629