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oil, but I am most worried about their backdoor strategy via Bolivia. Bolivia has a white separatist movement that intends to split off the gas/oil-rich rural provinces from the central government of Evo Morales--the first indigenous president of Bolivia (a largely indigenous country), and a Chavez ally--to deny benefit of those resources to the poor majority. The Bush-U.S. has been funding--and no doubt arming and advising--these rich landowners, who may declare their "independence" this May (in a constitutional dispute that is coming to a head), and may request U.S. military support for their "independence." This is one of the scenarios that I think Donald Rumsfeld had in mind, when he urged "swift action" by the U.S. in support of "friends and allies" in South America (Washington Post op-ed, by Rumsfeld, 12/1/07). The Bushites do not have any "friends and allies" in South America, who might require ""swift action"--except for the fascist thugs running Colombia, and the fascists planning coups within resource-rich countries like Bolivia, Venezuela and Equador.
The split-up of Bolivia will cause a major fracas in South America, and if the U.S. puts boots on the ground in support of the white separatists, Bolivia's strongest allies, Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, could be drawn in. It is clearly Rumsfeld & co.'s intention to draw them into a hot war. This would be the best way to do it--since Chavez is onto their game, and helped defuse the situation between Colombia and Ecuador. Colombia would then attack Venezuela and Ecuador--on some such fabricated excuse as this (depleted uranium!)--thus dividing their attention, and making them less able to help out Evo Morales. The Bushite goal would be, first of all, to gain some strategic ground in the Andes region--such as an armed fascist enclave in eastern Bolivia. They have little such ground. Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, has pledged not to renew the lease for the U.S. military base in Manta, Ecuador, when it expires in 2009. And he may act on that sooner, if he can prove that the U.S. violated its lease agreement in the recent U.S./Colombia bombing/incursion against Ecuador. The Manta base is only supposed to be used for "war on drugs" operations.
Paraguay is having a presidential election this year, in which the leftist (the "bishop of the poor," Fernando Lugo) is ahead in the polls. His victory could limit Bushite options, as to the U.S. air base in Paraguay (near the Bolivian separatist provinces). Peru--although temporarily bought off with "free trade" and run by a corrupt, Bush-backed government--would be loathe to get entangled on the U.S./Colombia side of a hot war, given its leftist neighbors (Bolivia, Ecuador, Chile and Brazil), and its majority leftist population. Peru would not likely give overt support to U.S./Colombia hostilities. There are, however, U.S. forces, and bases, in Panama and in the Caribbean, that the Bushites could use, but, for moving U.S. troops and mercenaries, and Colombian military and paramilitary forces, around, they need landing rights, or over-the-ground transit routes. A militarized, fascist chunk of Bolivia would greatly enhance their ability to harass, destabilize and gain control over the southern end of the Boliviarian revolution (Bolivia, Argentina and--if Lugo is elected--Paraguay).
For these and other reasons, I think Rumsfeld's "Oil War II: South America" will start (or enter its hot phase) in Bolivia. Venezuela and Ecuador are perfectly able to handle U.S./Colombian plotting, propaganda, and psyops, and military incursions in their border areas. But a combined assault on the northern and southern ends of their democracy/social justice revolution will be a lot more difficult. Brazil may be a big factor in keeping the peace. Brazil's president, Lula da Silva--a former steelworker--is a friend of Hugo Chavez, and has often defended him against Bushite attacks. (Among other things, he said that "you can criticize Chavez on a lot of things, but not on democracy.") I think the overwhelmingly leftist trend in South America, and the various alliances among these leftist democratic countries and their leaders, will hold. But there is no question in my mind that the Bushites are going to put it to the test, this year. They've tried every dirty trick in the book to stop this leftist trend in our hemisphere and restore corporate control of the oil. None of it has worked. And they are losing ground. So now they're going to try force.
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