Analysis: Iraqis' Basra fight not going well (according to US Officials)

[brooklynite]

Source: CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Iraqi military push into the southern city of Basra is not going as well as American officials had hoped, despite President Bush's high praise for the operation, several U.S. officials said Friday.

A closely held U.S. military intelligence analysis of the fighting in Basra shows that Iraqi security forces control less than a quarter of the city, according to officials in both the United States and Iraq, and Basra's police units are deeply infiltrated by members of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army.

"This is going to go on for a while," one U.S. military official said.

Iraqi forces launched their offensive in Basra this week. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was personally overseeing operations in the southern city against what government officials called "rogue" or "outlaw" militia elements, most loyal to al-Sadr.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/28/bush.basra/

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Who could have imagined?

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. We're in the business of actively encouraging civil war.

This is sickening.

[cliss]

2. Mr. Maliki's odds of "succeeding in Basra:

I give him about 1% chance of claiming victory in that city. The problem is one of loyalty.

Most of his troops are probably loyal to Muqtada Al Sadr.

There's a good chance Maliki will back off from his ultimatums, and make it seem like he "won" the conflict.
He'll "declare Victory" and get the hell out of Basra.

[FarCenter]

3. Isn't this basically the Badr Brigades versus the Mahdi Army?

Isn't the Iraqi Army in the southern provinces essentially the Badr Brigades in Iraqi uniforms?

They are the armed branch of SCIRI, which is aligned with Iran and with Maliki's Dawa Party.

Religiously, it is between the followers of the Hakim family (Badr Brigades) and the Sadr family (Mahdi Army) of Shiite clerics?

Basically, the US is backing the pro-US, pro-Iranian faction versus the anti-US, anti-Iranian faction.