U.S. Economy Entered Recession In December 2007: NBER

[Zenlitened]

Source: MarketWatch.com

The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, a committee of economists at the private National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday. The economy reached a peak in December and has been declining since, according to the business cycle dating committee of the NBER. The committee does not judge a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product; rather, it looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales. Employment peaked in December.

Read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-recession-began-December-2007/story.aspx?guid={7DCF90E4-D61A-4014-83CE-45E938CD632C}

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Also, the statement from NBER:

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

Full statement:
http://www.nber.org/dec2008.html

[onehandle]

1. They do have a link ---->

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-recession-began-December-2007/story.aspx?guid=%7B7DCF90E4%2DD61A%2D4014%2D83CE%2D45E938CD632C%7D

[Zenlitened]

2. Thanks. - n/t

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

3. Ahhh...

It's so reassuring when the offishul geniuses finally chime in with something any 3-toothed type could have told us months ago.

I wish I could get a job as an offishul genius. That has to be some easy livin'. Stress free.

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. This is important because things have gotten much, much worse since December.

The timing of the start of this thing makes it obvious that we are now inching closer to Depression.

[Amerigo Vespucci]

5. But President Bush has told us repeatedly that the economy is STRONG and gettin' STRONGER...

...time to cue up the sound bites of Bush saying that he "inherited" a recession from the Dawg.

:eyes:

[madrchsod]

6. the truth finally comes out a year later?

these people need to stop reading tea leafs.there`s millions out here in the real world knew this country was in a recession then.

[OhioChick]

7. Ohio never recovered from the first recession.....

Guess we'll be the first (Or tied with Michigan) to hit a Depression.

[blue_onyx]

8. Michigan never recovered either

The Michigan GOP tried to say our state was in a "one-state recession" but I knew it wasn't true. I (and many in MI) saw this national economic recession coming several years ago. The way things are going in the auto industry, Michigan could reach depression levels of unemployment.

[corkhead]

9. They are wrong!

The "Obama Recession" officially started on February 10, 2007 when he announced his candidacy for President. It is true because I saw it on Fox

[Acadia Blue]

10. Everyone knew it but the Bush administration

[Selatius]

11. I was freaking off by one month. I predicted they would backdate the recession to Jan. 2008.

They went back one month earlier than I had anticipated.

[unblock]

12. Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

Source: Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

...

The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then.

...

The Month of the Peak
The committee identified December 2007 as the peak month, after determining that the subsequent decline in economic activity was large enough to qualify as a recession.

...

The Quarter of the Peak
The committee determined that the peak quarter of economic activity was the fourth quarter of 2007. When the monthly peak occurs in the last month of a quarter, the NBER’s long-standing procedures dates the quarterly peak either in the quarter containing the monthly peak or in the subsequent quarter. Thus, the committee could have dated the quarterly peak in 2008Q1 if it had determined that economic activity was higher in that quarter than in 2007Q4. However, the committee determined that this was not the case. Most notably, both payroll employment and the income-side estimate of domestic production were lower in 2008Q1 than in 2007Q4, and the product-side estimate of domestic production was only slightly higher. The committee found that the peak quarter was the one containing the peak month, 2007Q4.

...

For more information, see the FAQs below and also see http://www.nber.org/cycles.html.



Read more: http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html

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nber is a private, non-profit organization, but this committee is widely recognized as the "official" arbiter of the business cycle.

it should be noted that only 2 post world war ii recessions have lasted more than 11 months (under nixon/ford 1973-75 and reagan in 1981-82, both 16 months). as few people would wager that we're out of the recession today, this recession has already lasted a year, making it #3 in terms of length.

[AllentownJake]

13. I wonder why this is being released now

Could it be we had an election in 2008 and the incumbent party didn't want to admit we were already in a recession?

[WriteDown]

14. Unlikely....

This is a private organization and this is when the #'s are always released.

[unblock]

15. they always seem slow because they wait for the "final" numbers

and then make sure there's a clear trend. often by the time they declare that a recession had begun, it's already over.

that doesn't seem to be the case this time, though.

[happygoluckytoyou]

16. December 2020... ExPresident Dubya realizes that there might be a recession looming in the PAST ! !