Toomey: Specter faces tougher road in 2010

[RamboLiberal]

Source: The Hill

A former Republican lawmaker who nearly defeated Arlen Specter in a bruising 2004 primary said on Monday that the Pennsylvania senator faces a tougher road to reelection in 2010.

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), whom Specter defeated by less than two percentage points in 2004, said he hasn't ruled out a 2010 rematch, but has no timetable for a decision.

Toomey, the president of the conservative Club for Growth, insisted Specter faces more hurdles than he did four years ago.

“He’s significantly more vulnerable now than he was in 2004,” Toomey said in an interview.

He argued that Specter’s core constituency in the GOP, which he called “liberal and moderate Republicans,” have since left the party and will be unable to vote in Pennsylvania’s closed Republican primary. That will make it more difficult for Specter to prevail against a conservative opponent, Toomey said.



Read more: http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/toomey-specter-faces-tougher-road-in-2010-2008-12-01.html

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PA is a closed primary - so Toomey could possibly take out Specter. Depends a lot on the political climate in 2010 and how many moderate Repubs in PA have switched to Democrat or independent.

[sharp_stick]

1. I might just welcome this nutcase

to the GOP fold.

Specter for some reason continues to make people think he's a thoughtful pragmatist instead of the knee jerk party operative that he really is. Kind of like McCain pretending to go against his party and having the media and public buy into it.

Specter wins elections in PA and IMO Toomey would get his ass handed to him if the Dems run the country well for the next two years and put a decent candidate up for the seat. If Specter gets knocked out I think we have another Dem pickup for the Senate in 2010.

[AllentownJake]

3. Toomey lost by 2 points in 2004

The Specter Margin of victor is smaller than moderate GOP defections to the democratic party.

I.E. Specter would be highly probable to lose a primary to Toomey.

[bushmeister0]

2. Well, if Arlen figures out a way to get Bill Belichick indicted, I'll switch my party

affiliation to vote for him!

[BumRushDaShow]

4. If Specter loses the primary, then a Democratic Senator is sure to get in.

Because like the general election, PA will hand the repukes their asses on a platter. The main reason why Specter kept getting back in was not just the “liberal and moderate Republicans” that Toomey claims. It is thanks to Philadelphia Democrats who voted for him out of loyalty (as he brings the bacon home and is pro-choice). Remove Specter and replace him with some clueless Santorum-like repuke, and they WILL lose because the same strong-Democratic counties will blow away the lame repuke votes from the rest of the state.

However if the Democratic nominee is Tweety, then it might get dicey. The Democratic Party here needs to really carefully think this out because a pickup is very possible. I know alot of people keep mentioning Sestak and he is a possibility if he can make himself known across the rest of the state.

[Doctor_J]

5. Toomey has a better chance if it's an OPEN primary

Dems should be flocking over to nominate every GOP wingnut in site - the loonier the better.