Worst job losses in 60 years expected

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: Marketwatch

The recession tightened its grip on U.S. businesses and consumers in February, according to economists, who are predicting the largest one-month job loss in almost 60 years.

"Pink slips continue to fly," said Meny Grauman, an economist for CIBC World Markets.

With output still falling at a dizzying rate, most companies are shedding unneeded workers and cutting back the hours of those remaining. Strapped by debt and seeing their paper wealth evaporating, many consumers are spending as little as they can.

"The economic patient is still in critical condition, with little medication to relieve the pain," wrote economists Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault of IHS Global Insight. "We will have to bite the bullet."

The first week of the new month brings two of the most important economic indicators: the ISM index and the nonfarm payrolls report. Both are expected to be very grim news.

Read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Worst-job-losses-60-years/story.aspx?guid={3DD6787D-0D70-4B14-94EC-808F4212D419}

[Liberal_in_LA]

1. I'm hearing estimates of 600K job losses PER MONTH for the next few months.

:wow: :wow:

[Trajan]

2. Part of the 'stimulus' should have been ...

a small tax break for KEEPING workers, instead of simply dumping more workers into the swirling pit of despair, exacerbating the snowballing downward spiral ...

[caseymoz]

13. A small tax-break wouldn't have done a thing, I'm afraid.

Too little to effect this flood.

[radfringe]

35. eliminating the Reagan Unemployment Tax would help too

REAGAN'S TAX PLAN; ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, PLAN WILL TOUCH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
1985 - snip
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D07E4D91739F933A05756C0A963948260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=3

Another Reagan proposal that came in for criticism was the plan to tax all unemployment compensation. At present, such compensation - stemming from a job-related injury or illness - is taxed only if the recipient's adjusted gross income exceeds $12,000, or $18,000 for a married couple filing jointly.

''What he's doing is taxing something to a person who is under a rough time to begin with,'' noted Herbert Paul, a New York tax lawyer. ''But you don't seem to have a strong lobby group to push to eliminate that, so I think it may well stick.''

[rockedthevoteinMA]

36. Yes it would!! I cannot believe we must pay tax on

unemployment benefits. When one is collecting, it's already 1/2 of what you made prior to your lay off. It's ridiculous.

[roamer65]

3. This will be known as the "Great Recession".

Tighten your belts, folks. We have 2 more years yet to endure.

This one is going to make the 1982 recession look like a picnic in the park.

We have a commercial real estate collapse, Option-ARM and Alt-A crisis yet to endure.

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. What happens after 2 years that turns this around? nt

[roamer65]

6. We are out of the mortgage resets.

They drop off like a stone around the end of 2011, beginning of 2012. Most then should be renegotiated and at lower fixed rates or will have been written off.

[Mr. Hyde]

16. If unemployment continues at it's current pace, it won't really matter.nt

[OhioChick]

20. You're absolutely right. n/t

[caseymoz]

14. This isn't a Great Recession, I'm afraid. We probably have a lot more than that to contend with.

This is not a cyclical recession, the entire structure of the world economy has been undermined.

I see the collapse suburban communities, (for which commercial property is the lifeblood,) the default on State and Municipal bonds, the collapse of State services, then the default on bonds nationally and internationally, and then finally ending in hyper-inflation. If Obama lessons or avoids any of this, it's a success.

If we counted unemployment the way they did in the 30s, it's now 15.4 percent, that is including marginally attached workers, discouraged workers, and those at part-time work hours who want full-time work. They also didn't use seasonal adjustments then.

I think if you're 20 years old, you could write off plans for your life and start making plans to see that your children have a better one, which was a value this country should have never sacrificed.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

[NBachers]

19. Jeez- I've got a son who's 22 and a senior in college

What a time to be going out into the world to build your life . . .

My Dad was a depression casualty- He was sixteen when the stock market crashed in '29 - He lived with the fearful certainty that it was all coming back some day. He never could shake coming of age in the Depression . . . He ended up hanging himself in the basement during the Nixon Administration - He always approved of my anti-Nixon attitudes . . . I feel reasonably secure in my little hardware store job, but I'd hoped for more for my son . . .

[Skittles]

28. so sorry about your dad

don't worry too much about your son just yet - he's young and is better off than those of us who are older and in constant fear of unemployment - and he has you in his life :)

[shrike]

37. It left scars, surely

My dad's family lost everything: house, car, income. He ended up going to seminary school just so he could eat. However, before you say anything, please understand that that school turned out to be one of the best times of his life. The priests were very kind to him and behaved like surrogate parents. He got a great education, there was CYO camp every summer. He came to realize he was studying for the priesthood for all the wrong reasons, though, and left.

My dad hated Nixon. He hated Reagan. He supported Clinton, he hated Bush. I only wish he'd survived long enough to see Obama take the oath. (He died of CHF just two months after 9-11.)

I'm so sorry about your dad. I feel grateful to have had mine as long as I did. I know he loved you very much.

[Donnachaidh]

15. this is PAST the recession part -- it's a DEPRESSION

And if you disagree, just drive past your local unemployment office and count how many people are on lines OUT THE DOOR tomorrow morning.

[sarcasmo]

18. No argument from Michigan.

[mbperrin]

23. The national rig count is down 40% from last year, so even the

uber-profitable oil "bidness" is shedding jobs and quickly!

[sendero]

22. You are right of course...

... but it's amazing how many people just want to ignore what it happening.

This is not your normal recession. It's already a depression, and if some miracle does not come forth, it will be a long and difficult one.

[GiveMeFreedom]

25. I agree with you!

I have been part time, off and on, since 2007. Way before anyone really knew what was happening, but I knew. I am a construction worker who's built many a sub division, haven't seen one of those for 2 years, don't know if I ever will again. I only had 7 years to retirement, but that's not going to work anymore either. So to me, it's a depression and not a readjustment in the market place.

[sendero]

21. This could easily..

.. make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.

[dysfunctional press]

29. no- it will be The Great Depression... they'll have to rename the other one with something milder.

nt

[radfringe]

33. in the history books it may be known as "the Great Recession" --

but for "meme" purposes it should be known as the GREAT BUSH-REPUBLICAN Recession

[No Elephants]

34. Face it, we're in the Reagan-Bushes Depression.

With a Glass Steagall assist from Big Dawg

[47of74]

5. Thank you President Hoover II and GOP Congress

[bluestateguy]

7. Something radical is needed to make this stop

A presidentially mandated freeze on corporate layoffs is needed.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

30. So, um... Wha?

How exactly does that help matters???

[roamer65]

8. Here's a graph that will send shivers down your spine.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

[geckosfeet]

9. Looks like the end of 2012 when the resets finally die out.

How are the reset rates tied to job losses?

[roamer65]

10. Consumer uncertainty should begin to subside.

Most mortgages should be written down, off or renegotiated by then. Most layoffs are now coming from consumer retrenchment. Negative equity on your house definitely affects spending habits. I don't expect a blazing recovery in 2 years, but I think we will slowly begin to come out.

I am definitely in the "Roubini" camp on this one. Nouriel knows his stuff.

[MUAD_DIB]

11. Dec 21, 20012?

Maybe the Aztecs were right.

[Dont_Bogart_the_Pretzel]

27. I don't think any of us will be around in 20012 !!!!!!!!!!

:silly:

[antimatter98]

12. And so this means what? Just more billions handed to banks? Hoping trickle down works? n/t

[ConcernedCanuk]

17. Oh Yeah - we ain't seen nothing yet - I see certain items in the grocery store up 25%

.
.
.

and empty shelves where I would be looking for a certain item

This is only the beginning

We have literally "borrowed" our way into a major depression, maybe even worse than what we've ever witnessed before

But us humans are consistently stupid - repeating or mistakes over and over

only this time - is big GLOBAL boo-boo

EVERYONE loses

(sigh)

[Mr. Hyde]

24. "We have literally "borrowed" our way into a major depression"

If borrowing is the problem, how will borrowing even more be the solution? Answer: it won't be.

[DFW]

26. My elder daughter just became one of them

She had a hard time finding a job as it is after graduating first in her
college class last May. She finally found a job with a company in Manhattan
in October. By the beginning of February, they were wrestling with a Chapter 11
filing, and let 80% of their workforce go, including my daughter, but also
about 3700 other people, some of whom had been there twenty years.

With the prospects of her finding another job rather dim, she is more than
a little depressed. She wasn't there six months so she doesn't qualify for
any kind of benefits, this being her first job. I'll jump in again and support
her, of course, but she is now 26 and wants to be doing this herself.

My wife is a social worker here in Germany, and she knows that losing your
job carries with it the danger of losing something else that is just as
essential to your survival: your self-esteem, which is hard to restore once
you lose it.

[samplegirl]

31. one word...

Inherited

[No Elephants]

32. Huh? In "almost 60 years?" Was 1948 a big job loss year?

[Igel]

38. Possibly.

http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/02/graph-united-states-unemployment-rate.html

They're talking rate of change in unemployment, not the actual percentage unemployment or numbers of unemployed. First time derivative or the slope, if that makes sense to you.

Edit: linking directly to the image didn't do the trick.

[No Elephants]

42. That graph is not showing a great change in 1948, though.

[phusion]

39. Post-war drop in employment numbers

all of the men and women working in war factories were suddenly back home, unemployed.

[No Elephants]

43. The war had ended 8/45 and unemployment for 1948 was relatively low.

[FreeStateDemocrat]

40. It was the month that all the steel workers union members went on strike.

[No Elephants]

41. That would be a really bogus comparison, comparing workers' choice to strike with

unemployment caused by this black hole of a mess.