STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 5, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 1

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 4, 2009

Dow... 6,875.84 +149.82 (+2.18%)
Nasdaq... 1,353.74 +32.73 (+2.48%)
S&P 500... 712.87 +16.54 (+2.38%)
Gold future... 906.70 -6.90 (-0.76%)
30-Year Bond 3.70% +0.02 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.01% +0.07 (+2.48%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

Handy Links

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---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Google has listed Financial Sense as an attack site.

I'll avoid posting the WrapUp until this is resolved.

http://safebrowsing.clients.google.com/safebrowsing/diagnostic?client=Firefox&hl=en-US&site=http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Dr.Phool]

21. I saw that at 3:am.

Thought I'd get a jump on the thread. but Firefox wouldn't let me enter.

Some weird stuff happening at TPM this morning also.

[Tansy_Gold]

23. Something similar happened at google a few months ago

They listed all sites as dangerous. It was a glitch that lasted about an hour, and it was at something like 3 a.m. CA time.

Could be a repeat or relapse of that problem?????



TG, usually up that early too

[Ghost Dog]

35. What is the current listing status for financialsense.com?

What is the current listing status for financialsense.com?

Site is listed as suspicious - visiting this web site may harm your computer.

Part of this site was listed for suspicious activity 1 time(s) over the past 90 days.

What happened when Google visited this site?

Of the 11 pages we tested on the site over the past 90 days, 2 page(s) resulted in malicious software being downloaded and installed without user consent. The last time Google visited this site was on 2009-03-04, and the last time suspicious content was found on this site was on 2009-03-04.

Malicious software includes 3 scripting exploit(s), 3 exploit(s). Successful infection resulted in an average of 0 new processes on the target machine.

Malicious software is hosted on 3 domain(s), including tombak-story.com/, 64.191.47.0/, alekseir.com/.

1 domain(s) appear to be functioning as intermediaries for distributing malware to visitors of this site, including betstarwager.cn/.

This site was hosted on 1 network(s) including AS26496 (PAH).

Has this site acted as an intermediary resulting in further distribution of malware?

Over the past 90 days, financialsense.com did not appear to function as an intermediary for the infection of any sites.

Has this site hosted malware?

No, this site has not hosted malicious software over the past 90 days.

How did this happen?

In some cases, third parties can add malicious code to legitimate sites, which would cause us to show the warning message.

[Dr.Phool]

22. Now that I think about it, maybe Google classified Tim Wood as a virus.

A rare disease that causes heads to explode. Or at least causes a throbbing headache.

[ozymandius]

100. I bet it was a Wood infection.

People at Google, protectors of all knowledge, must have taken offense at Mr. Wood's writings. All of them perhaps.

[specimenfred1984]

119. Nope, it's Colbert's "Koala Pox" mentioned on TV last night

He was running doomsday scenarios like Glen Beck does and imagined it was the year 2012 and Koala Pox had killed all the planet's wildlife.

[Cash_thatswhatiwant]

2. *prays for improvement*

[MercutioATC]

11. Improvement?

If you're just looking for a little bump, we're always going to have days like yesterday...even in the worst of bear markets.

If you're looking for a turnaround, you might as well find a comfy chair. Not until 2010...and that's extremely optimistic.

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q4
Briefing.com 1.7%
Consensus 1.1%
Prior 3.2%

08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q4
Briefing.com 3.4%
Consensus 3.8%
Prior 1.8%

08:30 Initial Claims 02/28
Briefing.com 635K
Consensus 650K
Prior 667K

10:00 Factory Orders Jan
Briefing.com -2.5%
Consensus -3.5%
Prior -3.9%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

39. Initial Claims @ 639,000 - last wk rev'd up 3k

06. U.S. weekly initial claims fall 31,000 to 639,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

07. U.S. continuing jobless claims fall 14,000 to 5.1 million
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

08. U.S. 4-week initial claims rise to 26-year high
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

09. U.S. 4-week continuing claims rise to all-time high
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

10. U.S. 4Q productivity revised to -0.4% vs. 0% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

16. U.S. 4Q unit labor costs revised to 5.7% vs. 5.0% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

17. U.S. 4Q real hourly compensation rises record 15.9%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

18. U.S. 2008 productivity rises 2.8%, most in 5 years
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

19. U.S. 4Q manufacturing productivity drops record 4%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

(that 4Q compensation must be skewed because of the trillions in bonuses to the bankers)

[UpInArms]

51. US January Factory orders fall 1.9% - Core Capital goods orders rev'd lower to -5.7%

01. U.S. Jan. factory orders fall 1.9% vs. -3.5% expected
10:00 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

02. U.S. factory orders down record 6 months in a row
10:00 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

03. U.S. Jan. durable goods orders revised higher to -4.5%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

04. U.S. Jan. core capital goods orders revised lower to -5.7%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

05. U.S. Jan. factory shipments fall 1.7%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 05, 2009

[sarcasmo]

115. Another link for another crazy tumble on the Street.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090305/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[ozymandius]

4. Oil hovers near $44 amid a drop in US inventories

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $44 a barrel Thursday in Asia after U.S. crude inventories fell, suggesting demand may have stabilized after falling for months.

Benchmark crude for April delivery fell $1.04 to $44.33 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices rose $3.73 on Wednesday to settle at $45.38 a barrel after the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell for a second week in three, halting a trend over the previous six weeks that saw stocks jump more than 30 million barrels.

The EIA said Wednesday that crude inventories dropped by 700,000 barrels, or 0.2 percent, to 350.6 million barrels, for the week ended Feb. 27. Analysts had expected a boost of 2.2 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery fell 4.15 cents to $1.34 a gallon, while heating oil was down 4.1 cents at $1.1738 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery was down 1.1 cents at $4.329 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. UBS says 47K Americans had accounts avoiding taxes

WASHINGTON – UBS AG now says it had about 47,000 accounts held by Americans who didn't pay U.S. taxes on their assets, but Switzerland's biggest bank isn't providing the names of any more of them to the U.S. government.

A Justice Department official said if UBS is found in contempt by a federal judge for refusing to identify the rest of its U.S. clients, the government could proceed with its criminal prosecution of the bank, which has been deferred.

....

Cloak-and-dagger tactics the U.S. government said were employed by UBS — coded language in internal e-mails and memos, foreign shell companies and phony charitable trusts, use of pay phones and foreign area codes and credit cards — were on display at Wednesday's hearing.

UBS allegedly staged training sessions so that "client advisers" could travel frequently to the U.S. — on average 30 days a year each — to consult with secret U.S. customers without attracting the attention of tax agents or law enforcement officials. The advisers were told to rotate the hotels they stayed in and to "protect the banking secrecy" if they were questioned by any authorities, according to excerpts of UBS internal documents filed in the IRS suit and provided by the subcommittee.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090304/ap_on_bi_ge/ubs_secrets_congress

[ozymandius]

6. Recession Deepening Across Regions, Industries, Fed Says

The U.S. recession is dragging down almost every industry in almost every part of the country and businesses do not expect conditions to improve until late this year at the earliest, according to a Federal Reserve report released yesterday.

The grim prognosis came amid new signs of deterioration in both the service sector and the job market in February. Nonetheless, the U.S. stock market yesterday leaped 2.4 percent, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, buoyed by reports that China would move to further stimulate its economy. Investors also viewed favorably newly announced details of the Obama administration's plan to prevent foreclosures. The surge on the market snapped a five-day slide.

....

The Fed's "beige book," a compilation of anecdotal reports from businesses around the country, underlined how difficult it has become to find bright spots in the economy. Consumer spending in recent weeks remained "very weak on balance," though in some places not quite as bad as it was during the dismal holiday season. Travel "continued to fall in most areas."
ad_icon

Demand fell for business consultants and law firms, except where there was a need for bankruptcy lawyers. Demand for furniture, appliances and other major household items remained "quite depressed," and sales of autos remained "exceptionally sluggish," according to the beige book, which is published eight times a year.

....

Some industries reported better news. Discount retail chains, for instance, had some improved sales as consumers shifted their spending toward necessities. Pharmaceutical companies in New England reported double-digit gains in sales; pharmaceutical firms also reported hiring temporary staff in the district stretching from Maryland to South Carolina.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/04/AR2009030402338.html

[radfringe]

16. at work - We received e-mails yesterday

about forcasts for the coming year. It cited financing as the biggest obstacle. Our division manufactures large machines used for making pellets.

We have customers who want to buy - but they can't get financing. This is going to be a problem for parts of "green technology" sectors. The machines we make take raw/waste material like wood, plastic bottles, bio-mass etc. and converts it into pellets for use in things like pellet stoves, Wood-Plastic-Fiber composites, ethanol/bio-fuels

We have many machines sitting on the dock that can't ship because the customers are unable to pay.

Our third shift was eliminated this past summer, and the 2nd shift cut back to bare bones.

Sales and manufacturing were moved in January from the larger plant to a smaller one to save on overhead/utilities.

I know there's such a thing as getting "lean and mean" - but I can't help worrying about reach a point where it becomes anorexic.

[ozymandius]

19. Or cutting the fat, then muscle, down to bone.

Stimulus? Any stimulus really needs to target monetary injections to those who buy these products - much further down the monetary distribution chain compared to any other plan I've read. How utterly frustrating and maddening to see the largest banks receiving cash injections that are later used to insulate themselves from the rest of us and to cauterize self-inflicted injuries!

[Ghost Dog]

37. That change is gonna come (making finance available much further down the line).

I firmly predict.

[spotbird]

101. The Credit Crisis of 1937

....

Nearly every man in Chicago doing business was issuing his individual scrip, and the city abounded with little tickets, such as "Good at our store for ten cents," "Good for a loaf of bread," Good for a shave," "Good for a drink," etc., etc. When you went out to trade, the trader would look over your tickets, and select such as he could use to the best advantage. The times for a while seemed very prosperous. We had a currency that was interchangeable, and for a time we suffered no inconvenience from it, except when we wanted some specie to pay for our postage. In those days it took 25 cents to send a letter east.

But after a while it was found out that men were over-issuing. The barber had outstanding too many shaves; the baker too many loaves of bread; the saloon-keeper too many drinks, etc., etc. Want of confidence became general. Each man became afraid to take the tickets of another. Some declined to redeem their tickets in any way, and some absconded. And people found out, as is always the case where there is a redundancy of paper money, that they had been extravagant, had bought things they did not need, and had run in debt for a larger amount than they were able to pay.

Of course, nearly everyone failed, and charged his failure upon President Jackson's specie circular. In after times, I asked an old settler, who was a great growler in those days, what effect time had had upon his views of General Jackson's circular. His reply was that General Jackson had spoiled his being a great man. Said he, "I came to Chicago with nothing, failed for $100,000, and could have failed for a million, if he had left the bubble burst in the natural way."

http://www.adena.com/adena/usa/hs/hs01.htm

[Lucky Luciano]

107. Interesting read - though you meant to say 1837! Not that 1937 was a good year either! nt

[spotbird]

131. Whoops! Too late to change. nt

[DemReadingDU]

34. I had thought about getting a pellet stove

A friend has one, and loves it. It heats just about their whole house. But I got to thinking about the availability of the pellets in the coming years.
1. If the pellets would be manufactured?
2. If manufactured, would the pellets be able to get to the store to buy?
3. If credit would be allowed to purchase pellets online and ship to my house?

Years ago, spouse had converted our wood-burning fireplace to natural gas, more for the effect of a fire, not for heat. We never burnt wood. Now maybe we might want to go back to wood, in case we won't have any natural gas.

[radfringe]

41. pellet questions

1. If the pellets would be manufactured?
Pellets are readily available, even saw bags of them at local box stores. Other places to get them is where pellet stoves are sold, Agway, feed/grain type stores.

2. If manufactured, would the pellets be able to get to the store to buy?
If pellets can't get to stores due to gas prices, other products would have the same problem.

3. If credit would be allowed to purchase pellets online and ship to my house?
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=wood+pellets&aq=f&oq=
doesn't seem to be a problem - but you would probably get a better deal by going local. If you buy in bulk (i.e. stock up for the winter) most places will deliver for free.

if you do decide to go with a pellet stove - 2 things to consider:

a. while a "glass" front to a pellet stove looks nice - it's going to black up fairly quickly unless you go with high-grade, low-ash pellets. These are usually more expensive than the run-of-the-mill pellets. Pellet stoves without glass fronts looks just as nice - and you can save a few bucks if you are willing to give up aesthectics.

b. if you are going to use a pellet stove as a primary heat source - most pellet stoves are equiped with a pellet hopper to feed the pellets into the stove, and a fan to circulate the heat. the hopper and fan run on electricity, cost is minimal - but if the power goes out - so does the hopper and fan. When looking at pellet stoves - ask about power back-ups or hooking it up to a generators for the times when/if a snow/ice storm takes out the power lines for extended periods.

http://www.motherearthnews.com/Renewable-Energy/2006-12-01/Considering-a-Wood-Pellet-Stove-Do-Your-Homework-First.aspx

[DemReadingDU]

47. Thanks, these are all great answers

But what about in 3 years when we have a full blown depression? Trade will be limited, credit will disappear, items purchased will be paid in cash upfront, or barter, and who knows what businesses will still be operable?

[radfringe]

58. if that's your main concern

then I'd be looking into getting a few acres of land, building a fence around it, putting in a bomb shelter and stocking up on food/ammo etc... and nevermind the pellet stove

[newfie11]

43. Ours runs on corn or pellets n/t

[TalkingDog]

66. What happens if you put popcorn in it? Awesome or not so much? n/t

[ozymandius]

7. SKorean finance chief says Eastern Europe a worry

SEOUL, South Korea – Concerns over a a potential meltdown in Eastern Europe are causing instability in global markets, South Korea's finance minister said Thursday.

....

Last month, credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's said "all the ingredients for a crisis are in place" in Eastern Europe because of rising government debt and a heavy reliance on foreign lending.

The central banks of the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Poland, Romania and Slovakia issued a statement Wednesday, saying reports the region's banks were in danger were "misleading" speculation and only increased the risk to stability.

Fears over turmoil in Eastern Europe have sparked concerns that South Korea, where markets and economic growth have been hit hard by the global credit crunch and slowdown, could find itself caught up in further investor wariness of emerging economies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090305/ap_on_bi_ge/as_skorea_economy

[ozymandius]

8. Fed Refuses to Release Bank Lending Data, Insists on Secrecy

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Board of Governors receives daily reports on loans to banks and securities firms, the institution said in response to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit filed by Bloomberg News.

The Fed refused yesterday to disclose the names of the borrowers and the loans, alleging that it would cast “a stigma” on recipients of more than $1.9 trillion of emergency credit from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

....

The Board of Governors contends that it’s separate from its member banks, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which runs the lending programs. Most documents relevant to the Bloomberg suit are at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which the Fed contends isn’t subject to FOIA law. The Board of Governors has 231 pages of documents, which it is denying access to under an exemption under trade secrets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aG0_2ZIA96TI&refer=home

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 03/03/2009 10,943,838,929,434.92 (UP 1,673,634,784.03) (Small.)

(Back down again.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,653,824,446,048.54 + 4,290,014,483,386.38
UP 498,419,440.82 + UP 1,175,215,343.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,906,143 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,775.15.
A family of three owes $107,325.46. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 13,759,777,403.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,173,184,935.93.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,828,412,431.36.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 29 reports in 42 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.81B$ per report, 0.59B$/day so far.
There were 104 reports in 154 days of FY2009 averaging 8.84B$ per report, 5.97B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,419 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.9 and 24.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/03/2009 10,943,838,929,434.92 BHO (UP 316,961,880,521.84 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 919,114,032,522.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/10/2009 +000,388,825,726.33 ------------********
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********
02/26/2009 +048,048,940,708.92 ------------**********
02/27/2009 +000,306,718,307.89 ------------********
03/02/2009 +074,163,317,993.12 ------------********** Mon
03/03/2009 +000,498,419,440.82 ------------********

244,036,182,052.07 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,279,207,126,175.85 in last 166 days.
That's 1,279B$ in 166 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 126% of that highest year ever only in 166 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 166 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3766323&mesg_id=3766669

[Festivito]

153. Debt: 03/04/2009 10,944,337,682,981.48 (UP 498,753,546.56) (Teeny tiny.)

(Under Obama, I think they borrow big occasionally and do little inbetween.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,654,449,660,910.95 + 4,289,888,022,070.53
UP 625,214,862.41 + DOWN 126,461,315.85

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,912,315 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,776.06.
A family of three owes $107,328.18. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 13,757,268,720.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,171,512,480.63.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,826,620,514.96.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 30 reports in 43 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.73B$ per report, 0.55B$/day so far.
There were 105 reports in 155 days of FY2009 averaging 8.76B$ per report, 5.93B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,418 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.9 and 24.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/04/2009 10,944,337,682,981.48 BHO (UP 317,460,634,068.40 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 919,612,786,069.00 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********
02/26/2009 +048,048,940,708.92 ------------**********
02/27/2009 +000,306,718,307.89 ------------********
03/02/2009 +074,163,317,993.12 ------------********** Mon
03/03/2009 +000,498,419,440.82 ------------********
03/04/2009 +000,625,214,862.41 ------------********

244,272,571,188.15 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,279,705,879,722.41 in last 167 days.
That's 1,280B$ in 167 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 126% of that highest year ever only in 167 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 167 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3768332&mesg_id=3768349

[ozymandius]

10. European Stocks, U.S. Futures Drop; Aviva, Salzgitter, BHP Fall

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell as earnings from Aviva Plc and Salzgitter AG disappointed investors and China scotched predictions of an increase in its economic-stimulus package. U.S. futures dropped, while shares in Asia advanced.

Aviva tumbled 18 percent after the U.K.’s largest insurer maintained its dividend even after posting a full-year loss. Salzgitter lost 12 percent as Germany’s second-biggest steelmaker said it’s “unlikely” to break even in the first half. BHP Billiton Ltd. retreated 3.5 percent after surging yesterday on speculation that an expansion of China’s stimulus would boost demand for metals.

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 1 percent to 165.95 at 10:22 a.m. in London. The gauge rebounded from a 12- year low yesterday, posting its biggest gain of 2009 on optimism China would broaden efforts to boost growth in the world’s third- largest economy. Premier Wen Jiabao said today that the country’s 8 percent expansion target for this year is within reach, indicating he doesn’t see the need to increase its stimulus.

....

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.7 percent. The benchmark index for American equities rallied yesterday on speculation China would broaden its stimulus and U.S. lawmakers will reach agreement on a plan to stem mortgage defaults.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent, led by construction companies. Mazda Motor Corp., Japan’s fourth-largest carmaker, surged as the yen weakened.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aO0Y8EaUD84U

[Ghost Dog]

13. China ups budget spending; Europe awaits rate cuts

BEIJING, March 5 (Reuters) - China vowed on Thursday to ramp up spending and help exporters to hit its 8 percent growth target this year in a rare display of confidence in a world battling the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

Investors found some solace in Beijing's pledge to keep the world's third-largest economy in high gear as they braced for more cuts in euro zone and British interest rates that would further deplete central banks' conventional recession-fighting arsenal.

Premier Wen Jiabao said China's growth goal remained realistic, but did not give markets what they had craved for and announced no addition to Beijing's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan.

However, he told parliament public investment would double, while healthcare and social spending would also rise sharply, driving the budget deficit to almost 3 percent of national income from 0.4 percent in 2008.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP39227620090305?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

14. Weak capex shows Japan going deeper into recession

TOKYO, March 5 (Reuters) - Japan may have sunk deeper into
recession in the fourth quarter, a survey on companies' capital
spending showed on Thursday, as the export-reliant economy
grapples with the global downturn.

An initial estimate of Japan's fourth-quarter GDP showed it
shrank a record 3.3 percent, and the spending survey suggests
that contraction may have been even bigger.

With all Group of Seven (G7) economies contracting and world
trade shrinking sharply, profits at Japanese manufacturers are
evaporating, hitting at the heart of the growth engine for Japan,
the world's second-largest economy.

Economists expect a further big fall in GDP for the first
quarter of 2009, and with domestic consumption also weak they see
no recovery until later in the year.

"Fourth-quarter GDP is likely to be revised down, going by
these capital spending figures," said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an
economist at BNP Paribas.

"Current profits in major manufacturing sectors have
virtually evaporated, although that was largely expected going by
recent media reports."

Markets looked past the figures, however, to focus on signs
of a turnaround in China's economy after a key gauge of Chinese
manufacturing improved for the third month in a row.


Tokyo's Nikkei share average <.N225> rose 2 percent while
Japanese bond futures slipped as the Chinese data encouraged
hopes for a recovery in Japan's economy. <.T>

China vowed on Thursday to meet its 8 percent growth target
this year by ramping up spending and helping exporters.


"Exports to Asia have fallen since November. But they will
probably start recovering from March," said Soichi Okuda, chief
economist at Sumitomo Shoji Research. He said regional trade
within Asia is frozen, but China's stimulus could help thaw it.

CAPEX STALLS

The fourth quarter for Japanese companies looked bleak,
however, as exports tumbled and they wound back capital spending
as factories cut production and staff.

Japanese private-sector spending on plant and equipment fell
17.3 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance survey
showed, a slightly bigger fall than the market median forecast
for a 16.6 percent slide.

It was the largest fall in comparable data going back to
July-September 2002, although the fall was exaggerated by changes
in accounting rules on leasing.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUK65420+05-Mar-2009+RTRS20090305?symbol=6758.T

[Ghost Dog]

81. European shares drop as ECB refuels recession worries

FRANKFURT, March 5 (Reuters) - European shares dropped on Thursday, led lower by financials, after ECB forecasts showed the euro zone economy could shrink by more than 3 percent this year, reigniting fears over the global recession.

The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index closed down 3.7 percent at 670.72 points, almost wiping out Wednesday's gains. The index has lost more than 19 percent so far this year, after plunging 45 percent in 2008.

On Wednesday the index gained 4 percent on hopes of an economic recovery in China . It hit a lifetime closing low on Tuesday.

"What we see today is a sobering of the markets," said Hans-Juergen Delp, equity market strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

"Yesterday, we had euphoria that was solely due to China, but this can't be the cure to the crisis. The ECB's projection about the European economy is nothing more than blank realism."

Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England cut lending rates on Thursday in line with expectations to record lows and staff economists at the ECB were gloomy about the outlook for the 16-nation euro zone, expecting a much sharper contraction this year than previously and only tentative recovery in 2010.

Financial stocks were down heavily, with the DJ Stoxx European insurers index .SXIP and DJ Stoxx European banks index .SX7P being the two top sectoral decliners.

Axa (AXAF.PA), Old Mutual (OML.L), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) were down between 7.1 and 13.1 percent.

British Life insurer Aviva (AV.L) plunged 33.4 percent as analysts cited concerns over the company's capital strength after the group said it will maintain its dividend.

Across Europe, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was down 3.2 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI was 5 percent lower and France's CAC 40 .FCHI was down 4 percent.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL561697220090305?rpc=44&sp=true

[ozymandius]

12. GE Treated Like a ‘Leper’ as Investors Punish Shares (Update1)

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. investors are treating the company as though it’s on the verge of failing ahead of a potential cut in its top-level AAA rating.

....

GE, which just posted its third-highest annual profit ever, has lost about $264 billion in market value in 12 months. Yesterday it fell a fourth straight day to the lowest closing price since November 1992, feeding a surge in options volume and credit-default swaps. Investors are punishing the shares on a presumption, which the company disputes, that GE Capital will need more outside funding to cover potential writedowns and losses in real estate, consumer credit cards and leasing.

....

While Immelt has said he’s prepared to run GE with less than a AAA, analysts including Richard Hofmann of CreditSights Inc. in London say bondholders are concerned that the company may split off all of GE Capital, sending the unit’s ratings lower and causing them to lose money.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=agBGopWN_AAg

[Ghost Dog]

18. The CDS monster must be stopped NOW.

(reposted from yesterday's SMW: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3766323#3767187 )

This insanity is caused by the CDS feedback loop; here's how it works.

I buy a CDS on GE (a few weeks ago) for a couple hundred basis points ($200,000 per $10 million)

The SELLER of that CDS protects against possibly having to pay by shorting whatever he can against that short credit position. This means he buys PUTs, he shorts the common, he does whatever he needs to in order to lay off that risk. He does this because if GE goes bankrupt their stock would presumably go to zero; therefore, if he has a potential $10 million exposure on the CDS he will short $10 million face value of the common stock, or buy enough PUTs to pay him $10 million if the stock goes to zero.

The PUT writer (assuming he buys PUTs), being a market-maker, will in turn short the common to lay off the risk as well.

This hammers the stock price which then reflects into the pricing models for the CDS, driving them higher.

This cycle repeats; unfortunately credit rating models include market cap as one of their inputs, which causes a credit downgrade (eventually.)

That in turn adds more pressure.

This cycle is repeated until the company is destroyed.

Why is this not a problem with options and straight short sales?

Because with both straight short sales and PUT purchases the short side is required to post margin every night, and if the price goes the wrong way they get an immediate margin call and are required to buy that position back at a loss. That in turn puts pressure UPWARDS on share price and arrests the slide.

As such the people selling short (whether stock or listed options) do not dare short in unlimited amounts, because if they get caught on the wrong side of a squeeze they are dead.

The enforcement of risk against the people betting on a bankruptcy through regulated instruments puts a natural limit on their activity and prevents an unwarranted "death spiral".

But in the CDS world there is no mark-to-market margin supervision, because there is no central counterparty supervising exposure and demanding it.

As a consequence it is only the counterparty and the written document that can demand collateral posting and usually that is either on an infrequent schedule (monthly, quarterly, annually or on an "event") or in some cases not at all provided the writer maintains some specific credit rating criteria themselves!

Without nightly margin supervision on CDS short positions these vehicles have turned into the means to launch monstrous focused attacks on specific companies; the buyer has limited risk and virtually unlimited reward.

This is exactly like me buying fire insurance on your house, and in addition I can name the amount of insurance I want to buy, even exceeding the house's value!

How nervous will you get if I buy $10 million in "fire insurance" against your $100,000 bungalow and then start stacking up gasoline cans in my driveway?

As a direct and proximate cause of this ability to distort the market it becomes possible to create self-fulfilling prophecies almost on demand, with the people doing it profiting handsomely - at the expense of American workers and otherwise-sound companies.

This form of exploitation of the market must stop.

/More... http://market-ticker.denninger.net/index.html

[ozymandius]

20. Sterling analogy!

"How nervous will you get if I buy $10 million in "fire insurance" against your $100,000 bungalow and then start stacking up gasoline cans in my driveway?"

This is what Buffett meant by "financial weapons of mass destruction". No one can put this chaotic scenario more clearly and succinctly as you have posted here Ghost Dog. Yet, among TPTB, I hear no call for inoculation against these instruments. That is why preprivatization, or more to the point: nationalization of the banks and other massive entities that wrought this shitpile, is so essential.

Under conservatorship the government is under no obligation to honor these contracts. Sure, those on the other side of the bet would be wiped out (as well as stockholders in those companies). But considering the alternative (i.e. a chain-reaction systemic meltdown) conservatorship is the easier, less painful path.

[Ghost Dog]

31. The same mechanism is being focused on certain E. European countries,

not just companies, I observe, BTW.

[Lucky Luciano]

53. Big contradiction here

"Under conservatorship the government is under no obligation to honor these contracts. Sure, those on the other side of the bet would be wiped out (as well as stockholders in those companies). But considering the alternative (i.e. a chain-reaction systemic meltdown) conservatorship is the easier, less painful path."

It is precisely not honoring the contracts that causes the chain-reaction systemic meltdown - and you even state the reason!

[ozymandius]

99. Then, tell me, how do we slay the monster?

Or should I have used the word 'cancel' instead of 'honor'?

[Lucky Luciano]

106. That would be the $64 Trillion question....

I don't have a very good answer for you...and neither does the market, which is why it is slipping into oblivion.

Tax cuts conditional on hiring people? That is about the only tax cut that makes sense to me - not the ones that went into the stimulus bill. Perhaps the only other one would be a tax cut for profits made abroad that get patriated - also conditional though on hiring people.

The stimulus bill should have had more infrastructure provisions in it - it really was gutted. Do what China is doing with their stimulus bill basically.

I doubt that would lead us out away from the evil vortex, but we can tread water until something really gets us out of this.

Wish I had a better answer for you.

[Lucky Luciano]

49. Ahh Cap Arb! I have done those kinds of trades!

The best one I did was Countrywide when in Aug 2007, their one year CDS blew out to 1050 bps when the stock was around $21. I bought one year $10 strike puts for about $2.50 5000 times to protect me against defaults - but the vol I paid was quite high making potential profit limited, so I sold 5000 30 strike calls @ $4.20 (with the idea that CFC was very unlikely to get back to $30). Well, imagine my surprise when the stock cratered and was taken out by BoA for well under $10 protecting my CDS, allowing me to collect all that juicy premium from the 30 strike calls, and even landing me well in the money with the puts - sweeeeeeeeet trade! The only way it would have lost money was if the stock went over $33.50 or so and that was not happening! Actually another potential way to lose would have been if there was a bankruptcy and I badly underestimated the recovery rate and did not buy enough puts.

A CDS is a lot like a low strike put which is why people often trade them vs the low strike puts when the puts are cheap relative to the CDS or vice versa. I also had some statistical regression models that I used for trading the CDS versus the stock. The overall market impact from the put writers is minimal because it still represents a pretty small percentage of the company's float and the option's delta is going to be low because the puts are well out of the money (delta is unlikely to be much over 20 meaning that each put contract the writer sells will require shorting 20 shares of stock to be hedged - though that writer will have to sell more stock if the price goes lower to stay hedged).

That said, CDS should absolutely have central clearing and more regulation especially including mark to market - that is absolutely important, but the CDS concept overall is a good one.

[specimenfred1984]

95. You sound like one of "the smartest guys in the room"

I've traded options too and have nothing against it but capitalism is only as good as its regulation. When corruption enters the picture, which it always will, things like statistical regression models are meaningless as is the entire concept of trading vehicles like CDS. That is, unless the trader views the system as corrupt and trades according to criminal models rather than statistical models.

[Lucky Luciano]

158. Why can't the statistical models pick up

the criminals? Markets are somewhat efficient, though not completely obviously. That efficiency should pick up any criminality. The one big fear from statistical models these days is forced selling from margin calls and people needing to raise cash. Though to be honest, my stat models would suggest (I got laid off so I am sitting on my hands and grumpy - I actually made money, but my bosses lost much much more and fired me for it) right now that I should be selling individual name CDS and selling stock and buying index CDS - and since my model given how the markets have been behaving would have me short stocks, the forced selling of stocks would work very well in my favor and may even present an exit strategy for the entire trade. It is a mean reversion model, so one has to be careful as many people with mean reversion bets had their faces ripped off...then to add insult to injury their faces were reattached....and then ripped off again and again.

[DemReadingDU]

65. More Denninger: What's Dead? (Short Answer: All Of It)

Very scary. If anyone thinks the market is going to recover, don't read this.

3/5/09 What's Dead? (Short Answer: All Of It) by Karl Denninger

Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)

* All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
* All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them. The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished. Essentially, all annuities are toast. Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better. All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception. Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid. The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
* The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations. They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results. In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
* Government debt costs will ramp. This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama. When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....
* Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months. Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary. This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs. That will likely get close.
* Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
* Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop. This will in turn lead to....
* The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months. Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
* Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

The good news is that this process will clear The Bezzle out of the system.

The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life.

It really is that bleak folks, and it all goes back to Washington DC being unwilling to lock up the crooks, putting the market in the role it has always played - that of truth-finder, no matter how destructive that process is.

Only immediate action from Washington DC, taking the market's place, can stop this, and as I get ready to hit "send" I see the market rolling over again, now down more than 3% and flashing "crash imminent" warnings. You may be reading this too late for it to matter.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.html

[ozu]

83. Karl is such a ray of sunshine.

He's always a good read, but this one is particularly gloomy, even for him.

[Demeter]

87. It Was Nice Knowing You Folks!

[KayLaw]

113. I read that.

Just what policy does he think could be changed that would rescue us from Armageddon?

[DemReadingDU]

118. Denninger has been writing for months what should be done

Sorry, it appears what I first posted is what Denninger opinions what will happen if "The Bezzle' (fraud) isn't stopped

Here's a few of his 'tickers' for some background and suggestions

2/19/09 On Our Fraudulent Economy
http://market-ticker.org/archives/809-On-Our-Fraudulent-Economy.html

2/28/09 The Underlying Fraud In Banking
http://market-ticker.org/archives/837-The-Underlying-Fraud-In-Banking.html

3/1/09 REMEDY FOR "The Underlying Fraud In Banking"
http://market-ticker.org/archives/838-REMEDY-FOR-The-Underlying-Fraud-In-Banking.html

3/2/09 The Challenge Before America
discusses "The Bezzle" within our modern finance system.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/841-The-Challenge-Before-America.html


Message forum shows at a glance his latest commentary, or 'tickers'
Page forward for additional 'tickers'
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?forum=Ticker

Here's Denninger's website homepage. Usually, it's 1 'ticker' per day. Lately it's been 3 or 4 'tickers'
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/


P.S.
It's really slow today. He must be getting a lot of hits on his server. The site normally is very fast.

[KayLaw]

122. Thank you.

I appreciate the thoughtful and informative post.

[Kolesar]

142. Today is about remedies.

I strongly urge the sound banks in this nation to consider filing for "writs of mandamus" en-masse in the courts to compel the federal government to follow the law, and ask for injunctive relief to put a stop to these programs along with their underlying malfeasance and misfeasance now.

As these sound local and regional banks are the ones harmed, they clearly have standing in the courts to bring this action.

One of the challenges that I have had from the beginning of this mess is finding an angle under which legitimate, impossible-to-challenge standing can be established in order to urge that someone use the legal resources available in this country to stop it.

I think I may have just discovered that crucial link.

Now it is up to our sound community and regional banks to take action before their capital basis is eroded by these outrageous actions, directly contrary to statute, to the point that they fail as well.
--*--
Why does this information seem so obscure? Aren't there a million business school graduates in this country who should know this and be alarmed??

[DemReadingDU]

147. Maybe they didn't learn that in business school

sounds like they only learned how to cheat

[Demeter]

151. Business Law Like That Is Arcane and Specialized

Nobody can make a living with it, except in front of the Supreme Court.

[BelgianMadCow]

163. Have any of you read LEAP/2020's assessments?

They, too could be considered gloomy, but they predicted the crash very early and have been predicting the scenario fairly consistently.
They also make recommendations, even at this point in time, so they don't just say the world is gonna end.

They DO say this is a global systemic crisis, and all governments are reacting as if it's only a (severe) technical problem that can be fixed through "classical" measures.

The full texts are on a subscription basis, but you can already learn a lot from the contents of each "GEAB". Read a couple of the older ones as well...

They say the world's financial and monetary system, based on the dollar and on debt, is collapsing. Only a new Bretton Woods (II) could replace that system with another, but they think that chance declines everyday as governments act protectionistic and as the interests of the major global forces are diverging.

They see the G20 beginning of April as about the last chance to change course in a global united way.

They predict the US goes bankrupt by summer 2009 otherwise.

On that summer: I read in Le Monde (france) they expect a summer with a lot of social unrest, I've read the same in El Pais (spain) and finally, read in the NYTimes that social unrest due to the crisis and unemployment is now estimated a bigger threat to national security than terrorism, it's now n°1...

http://www.leap2020.eu/Excerpts-and-public-announcements_r41.html

[UpInArms]

30. GE CFO says speculation about company is "overdone": report

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5242SD20090305?sp=true

(Reuters) - General Electric Co (GE.N) CFO Keith Sherin said on Thursday speculation about GE is "overdone" and the company has the capacity to complete funding needs in 2009, 2010, in an interview on CNBC. Highlights:

* CFO says has no short-term liquidity issues

* CFO says company we can fund itself though 2010

* CFO says GE Capital will be profitable in the first quarter

* CFO says will add higher provisions as credit deteriorates

* CFO says sees $35 billion losses & impairments, while being profitable at GE Capital

* CFO sherin says expected losses, impairments over 3 years

* CFO says moves in cds market based on very thin trades-cnbc

* CFO sees Q1 tangible common equity ratio of about 5 percent at GE Capital says "we feel good" about GE capital's capital level

...more...

looks like this guy said "quote me exactly" and there're no there there

[ozymandius]

15. Empty Ships Flock to Subic Bay as Lines Battle Plunging Rates

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Subic Bay in the Philippines is the busiest it’s been since the U.S. Navy moved out 16 years ago. The traffic surge is coming from ships all carrying the same cargo --nothing.

Last week, 19 vessels were anchored in the mountain-lined bay awaiting charters near an empty container terminal. The authorities at the port, 110 kilometers west of Manila, were expecting another eight this week.

...

Hundreds of vessels have been laid up worldwide as container lines try to boost rates depressed by U.S. and European consumers paring spending on Asian-made furniture, toys and other goods. Still, with shipyards set to deliver the largest amount of container ships by capacity in at least 15 years in 2009, lines may still struggle to post profits.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIb2RKA.AWu8&refer=exclusive

[Robbien]

72. Singapore's port is turning into a parking lot also

SINGAPORE This shimmering city-state was the house globalization built. When world trade boomed, Singapore's seaport at the crossroads of East and West became the Chicago O'Hare of freighters and supertankers. Singapore Airlines took off despite serving a country with no domestic air routes. Nearly everything manufactured here is made for export. One out of every three workers is a foreigner.

But as the world enters a period of deglobalization, Singapore is a window into the reversal of the forces that brought unprecedented global mobility to goods, services, investment and labor. With world trade plummeting for the first time since 1982, the long-bustling port has become a maritime parking lot in recent weeks, with rows of idled freighters from Asia, Europe, the United States, South America, Africa and the Middle East stretching for miles along the coast. "We're running out of space to park them," said Ron Widdows, chief executive of Singapore-based NOL, one of the world's largest container lines.

Thousands of foreign workers, including London School of Economics graduates with six-digit salaries and desperately poor Bangladeshi factory workers, are streaming home as the economy here suffers the worst of the recessions in Southeast Asia. Singapore is an epicenter of what analysts call a new flow of reverse migration away from hard-hit, globalized economies, including Dubai and Britain, that were once beacons for foreign labor. Economists from Credit Suisse predict an exodus of 200,000 foreigners -- or one in every 15 workers here -- by the end of 2010.

Singapore's exports collapsed by a stunning 35 percent in January . . . . .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/04/AR2009030404221.html?hpid=topnews

[ozymandius]

17. U.S. Auto Suppliers Said to Discuss Priorities for Federal Aid

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. auto suppliers met in Michigan to help President Barack Obama’s car task force prioritize which partsmakers should be saved in an industry rescue, people familiar with the matter said.

....

Yesterday’s forum at the headquarters of BorgWarner Inc. in Auburn Hills, Michigan, was a follow-up to the industry’s Feb. 13 request for as much as $18.5 billion in U.S. aid, the people said. Obama’s task force also is considering as much as $21.5 billion more in loans for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC.

....

As many as one-third of the more than 4,000 U.S. suppliers face “imminent financial distress,” according to OESA, which represents some of the industry’s biggest companies, including Johnson Controls Inc., Delphi Corp. and TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.

....

Some supplier failures are imminent regardless of production rates because of industry overcapacity, Fitzgerald said. Should bankruptcies happen too rapidly and affect some of the stronger suppliers, the result could be “chaos” for automakers and partsmakers, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=exclusive&sid=ayw3qy724Q7E

[burf]

26. Its understandable that the auto

folks need a bailout. After all, Wagoner had to take a haircut to 5.4 million last year. Now really how is a self respecting executive supposed to survive on such a paltry sum?

[UpInArms]

27. GM auditors raise warning on bankruptcy risk

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0531966920090305

DETROIT, March 5 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N) on Thursday said its auditors had raised "substantial doubt" about its ability to survive outside bankruptcy if it fails to stem its losses and stop burning cash.

The "going concern" warning from the struggling U.S. automaker had been expected, but underscored the stakes for GM as it seeks up to $30 billion in U.S. government aid to restructure outside a court-supervised bankruptcy process.

GM had warned late last month that it expected its auditors would question its viability at the same time that it reported a loss of nearly $31 billion for 2008.

The automaker faces an end of March deadline to complete concession talks with the United Auto Workers and bondholders to reduce its debt load as part of a bid to convince the autos task force assembled by U.S. President Barack Obama that it can be made viable with a new round of government help.

"Our future is dependent on our ability to execute our viability plan," GM said in its annual report filed with U.S. securities regulators.

"If we fail to do so for any reason, we would not be able to continue as a going concern and could potentially be forced to seek relief through a filing under the U.S. bankruptcy code," it said.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

28. "stop burning cash"

Did anyone think to look at WHERE and HOW they're burning cash and maybe CUT BACK on some of those expenses?

We get all these headlines, all these sound bytes, but we never get any real information.


The subthread from yesterday on how stupid/dumb/uninformed we Americans are has a lot of resonance.


TG

[Demeter]

70. It's the Overhead

If GM restructured itself and cut off everything that isn't selling, they would be left with the spare parts, the electric car effort, and no highly paid anybody.

[Tansy_Gold]

75. I'm not an auditor nor a forensic accountant. My area of (limited)

expertise is cost accounting.

I watched this kind of thing happen back in the mid 70s with a large mfg company (auto-related) and again the late 90s and early 00s with a small printing company in Phoenix.

There are ALWAYS immediate expenses that can be cut if the will is there. ALWAYS.

Big small it doesn't matter. The costs can be cut.

They just aren't at a point yet where their desire to survive is stronger than their desire to get rich.




Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

85. Yes, that was obvious from the beginning

After all, it's not THEIR company. These bastards don't need the work or the money, either, for survival. It's all about keeping score.

[AnneD]

90. Precisely

well said.

[UpInArms]

24. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 89.059 Change +0.566 (+0.73%)

Bank of England Concludes Easing Cycle After Cutting to 0.50%, Policy Makers to Spend GBP 75B

Bank of England Concludes Easing Cycle After Cutting to 0.50%, Policy Makers to Spend GBP 75B

The British Pound fell lower after rising to a high of 1.4228 during the Asian session as deteriorating fundamentals weighed on the outlook for further growth, and continued to trail lower following the 50bp rate cut by the Bank of England as the central bank continued to hold a dour outlook for growth and inflation. The central bank said that it expects price growth to fall below the 2% target in the second-half of the year, and reinforced expectations for a global recession as they saw continued weakness in world activity. Meanwhile, as the BoE concludes its easing cycle, Governor Mervyn King said that the central bank will buy 75B pounds of assets ranging from corporate bonds to long-term Gilts to manage monetary policy going forward, and will push for additional spending as he expects economic activity in the first quarter to contract at a similar rate that we’ve seen in the fourth quarter.

On the economic front, the HBOS house price index fell 2.3% in February after rising 2.0% in the prior month, while the annualized reading showed that property values slipped 17.7% from the previous year, which was slightly higher than the forecast for a 17.8% drop in prices. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that new car registrations fell 21.9% from last year, after plunging 30.9% in the previous month, and the data continues to reflect a dour outlook for private spending as households face a weakening labor market.

The Euro pared overnight gains to reach an intraday low of 1.2546 as the economic docket showed a worsening outlook for the region, and expectations for further easing by the European Central Bank may continue to weigh on the exchange rate as economists project the economy to face its worse economic slump since World War II. The preliminary GDP reading for the Euro-Zone showed that the annual rate of growth fell 1.3% during the fourth quarter, which was slight lower than the initial forecast for a 1.2% contraction in growth, while the breakdown of the report showed that private-spending dropped 0.9% after growing 0.1% in the previous quarter. In addition, business investments plunged 2.7% after falling 0.6% in the third quarter, and conditions are likely to get worse as trade conditions falter. Nevertheless, as ECB President Trichet remains reluctant to over shoot the interest rate, commentary following the rate decision is likely to influence the outlook for future policy but, as households and businesses remain pessimistic towards the economy, policy makers could face increased pressures to utilize all of its available tools to steer the nation out of a deepening recession.

The U.S. dollar pushed higher against all of its major currency counterparts during the overnight session however, as the economic docket is expected to show a rise in continuing claims for jobless benefits, expectations for a dismal Non-Farm Payrolls report could weigh on the greenback over the next 24 hours of trading. Furthermore, factory orders are expected to fall another 3.5% in January, which is likely to drag on the outlook for future growth, while a rise in mortgage delinquencies is likely to reinforce fears of a deepening recession as households continue to face financial uncertainties paired with a weakening labor market. Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is schedule to testify in front of the House Budget Committee, while Fed Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn will speak before the Senate Banking Committee, and the comments from the government officials also presents event risks for the greenback as investors remain skeptical of Obama Administrations efforts to stimulate the economy.

...more...

ECB Expected to Cut Rates by 50bps

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/ECB_Expected_to_Cut_Rates_1236191217264.html

This Thursday, the governing council of the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut its overnight rate by 50 bps to 1.5 percent. Typically, expectations for rate decisions are already priced in on exchange rates. However, we expect the EUR/USD to be very volatile once Jean-Claude Trichet discloses more details about the ongoing slowdown in the euro-zone economy.
Recession in the Euro Area May Be Longer than Expected

Over the last few weeks, with the release of a series of economic indicators for the euro-zone, something has become very clear. Europe is in the worst recession since the inception of the euro as an accounting currency on January 1999. European stock markets have been selling off (chart below) and the euro economy contracted by a record 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the third straight quarterly contraction, according to estimates published by the Eurostat. However, was not always clear the financial storm that started in the U.S. subprime market would one day reach Europe. Initially, many European Union policy leaders thought the financial crisis would be confined to the United States and the European Commission and the ECB were slower to act than the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. However, EU politicians were wrong and the Euro zone economy is now succumbing to tight credit conditions. In fact, Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, could not be clearer when he gave a speech to the European American Press Club just two weeks ago. “The current turbulence poses a serious challenge to the financial system as a whole and to economic policy-makers and regulatory authorities around the world”, he said. “The euro area and our 329 million fellow citizens can count on the ECB to take the necessary decisions” he added before the end of the conference. However, at DailyFX we think that lower interest rates may not be enough to prevent the region from falling into a long-term recession.

...more...

[54anickel]

42. Hey UIA, did you catch Jon Stewart last night? CLASSIC!!!

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220252&title=cnbc-gives-financial-advice


http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220253&title=the-dow-knows-all


http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220254&title=joe-nocera

edit to list all 3 segments

[UpInArms]

46. many thanks for those links, 54anickel

my one local and fuzzy channel does not carry Jon's program

:pals:

[54anickel]

54. Heh, I only knew about it cuz hubby called me into the room to catch it. He figured I'd

find it "interesting".

[DemReadingDU]

57. Those were hysterical!

I have not laughed so much in months!


Edit to include link to the full episode, appx 20 minutes total
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=220250

[specimenfred1984]

112. Who on Earth would badmouth CNBC? LOL

The funniest thing to me is how the business TVwhores just completely ignore reality and ignore what they say as if it never happened. They have reduced themselves to sloganeering robots, pull string dolls for corporate interests that assume a sub-human role for their TV appearances. Their credibility is so wiped out it'll never return and yet they continue on, lie after lie, false premise after propaganda paradigm, conceited suits bragging about how much they know when in fact they know nothing.

[UpInArms]

25. Madoff Update: UBS made to disclose Luxembourg documents: lawyer

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090305/bs_nm/us_ubs_luxembourg

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – A Luxembourg court ordered Swiss bank UBS (UBSN.VX) to disclose certain documents relating to its Luxembourg subsidiary's handling of investments in Madoff products, according to a lawyer.

The lawyer, representing a party that may seek damages from UBS (UBS.N), said on Thursday that UBS would have to disclose two "important documents" within eight days or face a fine of 250 euros ($313.40) per day up to a maximum of 250,000 euros.

A spokeswoman for UBS said that the group had taken note of the decision but it had yet to receive the details in writing.

"Once we have received the written decision (which we expect within the next few days) we will analyze it," the spokeswoman said.

Last week, Luxembourg's financial market watchdog CSSF gave UBS three months to make changes to its Luxembourg custodian bank in the wake of the arrest of accused Wall Street swindler Bernard Madoff.

CSSF called on the Swiss bank to put in place the necessary infrastructure, human resources and internal rules to fulfill its responsibilities as a depository bank.

UBS rejected the calls to reform its Luxalpha fund and said it would "defend itself vigorously" as it did not believe the CSSF was correct.

UBS, which has said it did not recommend investments in Madoff products, said the Luxalpha fund was created after wealthy clients had requested a fund that would allow them to invest with Madoff.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Former Merrill execs invested in Madoff funds: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52414820090305

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Top former Merrill Lynch executives, including two former CEOs, invested in hedge funds that lost money with alleged fraudster Bernard Madoff, becoming the highest-level Wall Street victims of the scandal to date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

Former chief executives Daniel Tully and David Komansky and former investment-banking chief Barry Friedberg personally invested in the funds, set up by former Merrill brokerage chief John Steffens, the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter.

<snip>

Steffens' exposure to the scheme was tied to Ezra Merkin, a top Madoff investor who was one of three partners in Spring Mountain Capital LP, which managed nine of Steffens' hedge funds, the Journal said.

Spring Mountain invested in three Merkin-led funds, and Steffens was aware of their heavy Madoff exposure in one, it reported.

"The Madoff connection is sad," the Journal quoted Tully as saying.

He said he invested with Steffens because "you back people you know and trust." Komansky could not be reached to comment, the paper said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. US college endowments lost 24 pct in 6 mths-report

http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSN0441682620090305

BOSTON, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. colleges and universities lost nearly one-quarter of their endowments' worth in the first half of their fiscal year, forcing them to cut staff and budgets just like corporations hurt by the financial crisis.

From July through December, U.S. schools' endowments dropped an average of 24.1 percent, according to a report released by the Commonfund Institute, a nonprofit group that polled 629 educational endowments on their results.

Illustrating just how severely the financial crisis is affecting higher education, even wealthy colleges like Harvard are freezing salaries, offering early retirement, reassessing construction projects and considering selling off art collections.

Smaller schools, with endowments of $10 million or less, fared even worse with their endowments losing 30.2 percent, according to the study which will be released on Thursday.

"These are the worst-ever half year results that educational endowments have seen," Commonfund Executive Director John Griswold said in an interview. "Even the most diversified endowments suffered serious declines."

Harvard University, the country's richest, reported in December that its endowment had shrunk by $8 billion to $29 billion in four months and that it expects that loss to widen to 30 percent by the end of the fiscal year on June 30, 2009.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. Merrill Men Paid Over $10 Million Subpoenaed

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123620884593433947.html?mod=mktw

New York state's attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, has issued subpoenas to several top Merrill Lynch & Co. executives who were each paid more than $10 million in cash and stock last year, according to people familiar with the situation.

The executives include Andrea Orcel, the top investment banker at Merrill, global sales and trading chief Thomas Montag and Peter Kraus, Merrill's former head of strategy.

Messrs. Orcel and Montag now work at Bank of America Corp., which acquired Merrill in January. Mr. Kraus is chief executive of investment-management firm AllianceBernstein Holding LP. They were paid more than $25 million apiece in 2008.

<snip>

In its waning days as a stand-alone company, Merrill paid out billions of dollars in bonuses, even though it wound up posting a fourth-quarter net loss of $15.84 billion. For all of 2008, the 10 highest-paid Merrill executives got a total of $209 million, and 11 were paid more than $10 million each according to people familiar with the situation. Merrill posted a net loss of $27.6 billion.

Late Wednesday, BofA filed a petition in New York state court to keep the pay data confidential.

Mr. Cuomo is investigating whether the bonuses violated securities laws. He is concerned that BofA and Merrill didn't disclose, when the takeover deal was reached in September, their agreement to a bonus payout of as much as $5.8 billion, according to people familiar with the investigation. Mr. Cuomo also is scrutinizing the Charlotte, N.C., bank's role in setting bonuses of several Merrill executives.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Commentary: Greenberg's AIG lawsuit is a travesty

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Greenbergs-ego-wont-let-him/story.aspx?guid=%7BBCC8BD7E%2DDD5A%2D40A9%2DAAEC%2DDDCA051A2CC4%7D&dist=SecMostRead

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Maurice "Hank" Greenberg always seemed to have a big chip on his shoulder.

Looks as if it's still there. In the believe-it-or-not category, Greenberg is suing the company he built, American International Group Inc. (AIG: 0.43, 0.00, 0.0%) because he lost money in its implosion. Imagine the precedent if he wins: All scoundrels could sue their victims. Bernie Madoff could sue his clients.

Though he doesn't know it, Greenberg, 84, is illustrating how AIG came to be our nation's biggest zombie insurance company.

Greenberg was one of Wall Street's biggest operators, but he was also a bully -- not that bullying is always a bad thing in business since it helped him build the world's biggest insurance company. But it also was a flaw that brought him, his company and nearly the financial system down.

<snip>

These days, of course, we are getting a taste of the bad decision making at AIG during the last decade. This isn't exclusively the handiwork of Greenberg, since he left four years ago, but the blood is mostly on his hands. Greenberg built the financial products unit that is credited for bankrupting the company. He steered AIG away from its sweet spot: insurance.

This is where the bullying becomes important. There were some questions about where the AIG was going. Back in 2001, the head of Fitch Inc. mentioned AIG in a warning about companies getting into businesses outside their expertise, including credit-default swaps.

...more...

[Hugin]

82. How's this as a plan for dealing with Greenberg...

Hack off the whole hunk of AIG 'toxic assets' he was instrumental in generating and dump them (and their liabilities)
in his lap...

There you go, there's your CDS 'assets'! You deal with them...

Sound like a plan?

[Tansy_Gold]

105. Hey, works for me! n/t

.

[muriel_volestrangler]

38. Bank of England cuts rates to 0.5% and starts quantitative easing

At noon today the Bank announced that rates are being lowered again to 0.5%, the lowest since the central bank was founded in 1694.

Today's cut is the sixth time that UK borrowing costs have fallen since October, when rates were still 5%, and is another blow for savers.

With its rate-cutting ammunition all but exhausted, the Bank pressed the button on a much more drastic policy, quantitative easing - the process of buying up government and corporate debt – in an effort to kick-start the economy.

It will spend £75bn buying up government bonds (gilts) and corporate debt over the next three months, and has been given permission by Alistair Darling to eventually spend a total of £150bn on asset purchases.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/05/interest-rates-quantitative-easing

[Ghost Dog]

55. Dollar up as ECB, BoE cut rates, anxiety mounts

NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as central banks in Britain and the euro zone cut borrowing costs, while anxiety about the global economy continued to enhance the safe-haven status of the U.S. currency.

The euro tumbled below $1.25 <EUR=> after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet followed a half-percentage point rate cut by saying inflation had cooled and euro-zone growth was likely to be weak throughout 2009.

The ECB said it now sees euro-zone growth contracting anywhere from 2.2 percent to 3.2 percent this year, with a mild recovery seen only in 2010.

"The forecasts they put out have changed quite dramatically," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "They are painting a far gloomier economic outlook for the euro zone."

Data on Tuesday confirmed the euro-zone economy contracted by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Sterling also fell after the Bank of England cut rates to a record low of 0.5 percent and said it would start buying 75 billion pounds ($106 billion) of assets to boost the UK economy.

Ashraf Laidi, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London, called it "tiptoe(ing) into quantitative easing" -- the process of flooding the banking system with funds to promote lending when interest rates are already at or near zero.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0530834720090305?rpc=44
____

[Demeter]

40. Who Let the Dogs Out?

Good morning, I hope, Marketeers. This is way too crazy for me.

I'm going to lie low and conserve energy for Weekend Economists and Daylight Savings Time...

I think the Yoo memoranda are the beginning of the beginning of the end. An awful lot of people losing money won't have to worry about it. they will have room, board and healthcare courtesy of the penal system. This purges the financial and the political water supplies at the same time.

The Big Banks are dead. The little banks should be getting the Taxpayer-provided capital so they can take over from the defunct Shadow banking system.

Obama's health care commmittee--is it a head fake, so real work can go on while all the parasites earnestly try to cut deals with each other, or is it what he thinks is going to fly? If the latter, I predict a nation-wide sit down strike in protest. We can't take any more parasitism in this country.

[Tansy_Gold]

44. It's not the dogs I worry about, or even the wolves

It's the vultures.

There is no more real money to throw into the gaping maw of the financial system. Oh, the govt. may lend them more and print more money and borrow more money to cover it, but that's all play money. If the rumors about GM continue, and if anyone -- ANYONE -- acts on those rumors, I think we will start to see real panic in some circles.

We've talked a lot here about reviving the community spirit in the face of such systemic calamity, and I was giving that notion some thought yesterday evening relative to the mortgage mess. I think the right wingers are fueling a social fear that's as wrong as the fears of WMDs but I haven't had time to put it into coherent form. But the point of it is that we who are housing-stable become the dogs, and we who are housing-threatened are the wolves. We're the same species and we need to work together against the vultures.

More later, maybe this week-end.


Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

50. Speaking of the WE... I haven't seen you there lately, Tansy.

What? Have you gone and developed a life during the Weekends?

[Tansy_Gold]

59. A life? A life? What's that?

Actually, I was busy two weeks ago with preparations for last week's trip to Chicago. I intend to be active on WEE this week, come hell or high water.


:evilgrin:


Tansy Gold, expecting maybe a little rain but no high water this week-end

[AnneD]

84. Mourning Marketeers.......

:beer:and lurkers. Tansy, leave it to you to never lose site of the true objective. :spray:

I am a big proponent of community. It was a force in my childhood that protected us from abject poverty. It is a force that protected me when Hurricane Ike came down, when Rita gave us a glancing blow. We can't do enough in this country to foster community. While individualism can be a noble thing, we are pack animals and wolves or dogs, we need the pack to survive.

AnneD-getting all animal on you this morning......

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears

[Demeter]

89. "Mourning" the Country Already, AnneD?

or just the SMW?

[AnneD]

96. I am contemplating.....

the wake at the moment. I honestly haven't decided if it is the country or the market, but never the thread-glad you caught the sly;)

Actually, I am more in a mood of frustrated despair than anything else. I don't have a degree in economics other than self taught and the school of life. I am as disappointed with our business schools as I am with our media. All this education for this crap. No ethics or morals, no sense of community or general good, no sense of a long term objective. These guys can't see their own dicks for gazing into their belly buttons.

At this point-I really don't give a flying fuck if AIG fails or any number of banks and insurers. Can I be assured that if we keep throwing money after them-all of my retirement will evaporate? No they can't so I don't care if they crash and burn. We will all be in the same boat. As it stands right now...the poor and middle class are the only ones in the leaking boat. These companies are chalking their boat with our money.

Sorry for the surly mood but I am getting really tired of Congress seeing to the comfort and well being of these jerks and not the people that work their fingers to the bones.

[Demeter]

45. Former Merrill execs invested in Madoff funds: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090305/bs_nm/us_merrill_madoff_2

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Top former Merrill Lynch executives, including two former CEOs, invested in hedge funds that lost money with alleged fraudster Bernard Madoff, becoming the highest-level Wall Street victims of the scandal to date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

Former chief executives Daniel Tully and David Komansky and former investment-banking chief Barry Friedberg personally invested in the funds, set up by former Merrill brokerage chief John Steffens, the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter.

[Hugin]

48. Haven't they gotten the memo?

The whitewashing of MADE-off is almost complete.

He's agreed to give up some trinkets and knickknacks and all is forgiven. Heck, it may not have even been a Ponzi scheme last I heard...


:heavysarcasm:

[DemReadingDU]

52. CNN: Underinsured Americans: The cost to you

3/5/09 Underinsured Americans: The cost to you
As the recession shrinks health care coverage for more households, experts warn of a double-whammy on all consumers.
By Parija B. Kavilanz, CNNMoney.com senior writer

Americans already shouldering the cost of millions of people without health insurance should brace for a double-whammy, thanks to a surge in the number of "underinsured" - consumers who have some but not enough health insurance coverage.

The problem, according to health care industry experts, is that the government and those with employer-based health plans will have to pick up the tab as more Americans are unable to pay their entire medical bill.

As the recession puts a bigger strain on consumers' wallets, many underinsured Americans either can't or won't pay the high deductibles and co-pays for treatment they receive in hospitals and emergency rooms.

Many people without adequate insurance are also delaying or forgoing medical care until it becomes an absolute emergency, said Dr. David Chin, managing partner of consulting firm PricewaterhouseCooper's Global Healthcare Research Institute.

By law, hospitals have to treat all emergency admission regardless of insurance.

"If the underinsured can't pay the bills, the hospital either writes it off as bad debt or shifts the cost to its charity care program," said John Pickering, principal and consulting actuary with consulting firm Milliman Inc.

"As bad debt increases, more hospitals are also shifting the cost of both the underinsured and insured to those who can pay," said Wynn Bailey, partner and health care expert with consulting firm AT Kearney. "That's the government, private insurers and the self-insured."

Bailey said hospitals are negotiating higher treatment rates with insurance companies to offset the bad debt.

In turn, commercial insurance providers are charging higher premiums to their clients, both businesses and individuals, to cover their cost increases. As businesses struggle their employee health care costs, they are shifting a higher percentage of overall premiums to their workers, charging higher deductibles, or encouraging greater use of generic drugs.

"It's a vicious cycle," said Pickering.

Bailey said he wouldn't be surprised if people with employer-based health insurance have to pay 5% to 10% more for their coverage over the next year or two.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/05/news/economy/healthcare_underinsured/index.htm?postversion=2009030504

[Dr.Phool]

56. Would they just end this stupid circle-jerk already?!

We're way past time for single payer. But, I don't think we'll ever see it in my lifetime.

Meanwhile, Obama and the Emmanuel brothers play hide the kielbasa.

[antigop]

60. TPM: Cantwell: Where is the AIG money going?

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/cantwell_wheres_the_aig_money_going.php

Here's an exchange from this afternoon between Sen. Cantwell and Secretary Geithner. Cantwell asks the question we and a lot of others have been asking: where's all the money going? Who are the counter-parties?

We grabbed this exchange because I want to flag that this question appears to be gathering momentum up on the hill. But the exchange itself is interesting for two reasons. First, Geithner simply won't engage. He just ignores the question. But in the course of doing so he provides the administration's rationale for why we have no choice but to keep shoveling money down this hole. But clearly, talk to the hand on the counter-parties ...

Watch the video.

And here's a question...did AIG have re-insurance? If so, what company was providing re-insurance? Or did they just assume they didn't need re-insurance because home prices would continue to go up?

[Tansy_Gold]

69. Cantwell (or someone on her staff) reads SMW

From Tuesday ---


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3764830#3765759

<snip>
So here's the ultimate question: Who is AIG (or any other bailee) giving the money to? AIG was the insurer of last resort; nobody's covering their asses/bets but us. Whose asses/bets were they covering?

<end snip>


:hi:



Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

91. The speculators?

Wonder if our taxes are bailing out those who waged the largest bets?

[antigop]

102. But do we really know if "AIG was the insurer of last resort"? Did they have re-insurance? n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

108. Actually, they were; no, they did not

There was an article posted in SMW several months ago that examined the whole AIG situation. IIRC that was exactly what the AIG officials said: they never expected/imagined anyone would ever default and they had essentially cornered the market on CDS. They put all their money on black, and it came up red.

Of course, the way I understand it, all it took was one of the counterparties to default and the whole tapestry of bets unraveled. Since AIG owed on all of them, they were screwed.

And the point of it all was from the beginning that these were BETS, they were not investments at all. As with any bet, someone gets to win and someone has to lose. This whole fiasco has been an attempt to alter the basic laws of nature so that EVERYBODY wins all the time. When that proved not to be true, they -- AIG, Merrill, B of A, Citi, all of them -- weren't willing to be the losers on their own bets, so they pulled in a bunch of suckers off the street (the govt/taxpayers) to play one last double or nothing.

They still haven't grasped the fundamentals of economics: there's much more to an economy than the bets placed on the stock market. All the fixing, all the bailouts, all the cosmetic surgery won't fix a single thing. There is no there there, no economy, no generation of wealth, no nothing.

Denninger may be right.


Tansy Gold

[antigop]

109. but that could just mean they didn't expect re-insurance to kick in

Insurance companies typically re-insure against catastrophic losses.

I'm not sure that we really know what is going on here.

[antigop]

110. Here is what the NY Times article says: "Propping up a House of Cards"

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/28/business/28nocera.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2

Why would Wall Street and the banks go for this? Because it shifted the risk of default from themselves to A.I.G., and the AAA rating made the securities much easier to market. What was in it for A.I.G.? Lucrative fees, naturally. But it also saw the fees as risk-free money; surely it would never have to actually pay up. Like everyone else on Wall Street, A.I.G. operated on the belief that the underlying assets — housing — could only go up in price.

But, to me, that doesn't necessarily mean they didn't have re-insurance.

It seems very odd to me that the reporter never mentioned re-insurance. If AIG didn't have it, then that fact would have added even more meat to the article.

[Tansy_Gold]

127. If they had re-insurance, why would they be looking for a bailout?

I just spent an hour and a half scrounging through the DU archives for the article I wanted but couldn't find it. I'll spend some more time this week-end. Then I'll either find it or give up.


TG

[antigop]

128. because they (grossly) underestimated how much they needed or...

the bailout money really isn't going to AIG -- it's going to the reinsurance company.

[DemReadingDU]

130. Wasn't AIG the insurer of 'last resort'?

They accepted hefty fees to provide 'insurance' for the CDSs. AIG's model assumed that there was nothing to lose because house prices 'always' went up. Nothing was going to fail, so there was not a need for another company for insurance. Guess they figured it would be the government (taxpayers).

Let's pick any insurance company, say State Farm. State Farm insures houses, autos and life insurance. So does State Farm have a different insurance company to insure its 3 main lines of business in case of bankruptcy? I have no idea, I never even thought about this before.

[antigop]

133. Wikipedia: Reinsurers provide insurance to insurance companies

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinsurance

Reinsurance is a means by which an insurance company can protect itself with other insurance companies against the risk of losses. Individuals and corporations obtain insurance policies to provide protection for various risks (hurricanes, earthquakes, lawsuits, collisions, sickness and death, etc.). Reinsurers, in turn, provide insurance to insurance companies.

[Tansy_Gold]

132. According to the published details of the September bailout,

the government essentially "owns" AIG, or at least has a substantive enough stake to be calling some of the shots. Because of that, I think there'd be some leaking of who the re-insurers were/are if there were/are any of them. Plus, those same re-insurers would be hurting for having to pay out on AIG's policies and everyone else's.

I did find one article/essay from last September that gave some idea of what the whole derivatives mess was creating, but it wasn't the one I wanted specifically about AIG.

Looking at more current information, I did find some interesting stuff. Seems we aren't the only ones asking these questions today:
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=12021

Sure, insurance companies often do reinsure, but the reinsurer might then be on the hook if the disaster is big enough.

In the case of AIG, it looks like the reinsurer was a company called "Uncle Sam." It's quite a bargain; they collect their premiums from somebody else.




Tansy Gold

[antigop]

136. so why aren't there leaks as to where the money is really going, if it's not going to re-insurers?

I dunno. Something about this seems really strange to me.

Geithner kept avoiding the question when Cantwell kept asking.

[Tansy_Gold]

137. Exactly.

If it were going to re-insurers, we'd know about it. AIG would look smart, having covered its ass with insurance. Someone else would be looking the fool for insuring AIG.

So since there's no leak about who the re-insurers are, I think it's a pretty safe bet (pun intended) that AIG had no conventional re-insurance on its CDSes. And by covering everyone else's trillions of bets, they made themselves TBTF, which if they were a romance novel heroine would be TSTL.


Tansy Gold, former romance novelist who knows whereof she speaks

[antigop]

138. No, if there are going to be leaks, then there are going to be leaks.

You said if there were re-insurers, there would be leaks about it.

By the same token, if there are going to be leaks, there are going to be leaks. And there have not been any leaks (yet) as to where the money is really going. If there were no re-insurers, then there would be leaks as to where the money is really going.

I don't think you can say we would know about it if there were re-insurers because there would be leaks and then turn around and say we don't know where the money is going since there are no leaks telling us where it is.

Leaks are leaks. Either someone leaks about re-insurers if there are any, or someone leaks about where the money is really going. And no one has leaked (yet) where the money is going.

antigop
--typing fast because I have to go and hope this makes sense

[antigop]

139. And AIG wouldn't look smart if it HAD re-insurance, but way too little. n/t

[Demeter]

141. I'll Bite. What's TSTL? Too Stupid to Live?

Assuming TBTF is too big to fail?

[Tansy_Gold]

143. Ding! Ding! Ding! You get the Golden Glob award!

Yep, Too Big to Fail = too stupid to live.



Tansy Gold, whose romance heroines were NEVER (well, almost never) TSTL

[cosmicdot]

155. I'd like to know if ACE, Ltd. ...

a reinsurance company, headed by one of Maurice Greenberg's sons, Evan, is somehow involved w/AIG ... conveniently, headquartered offshore.

The other son, Jeffrey, was at Marsh & McLennan at the time, I believe, when, then, NY Atty Gen Eliot Spitzer accused M&M of price fixing and collusion http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/insurance/2004-10-15-spitzer-insurance_x.htm.

~snip~ Some of the nation's largest insurance companies are accused in Spitzer's suit of steering contracts and bid rigging, including AIG, ACE (ACE), The Hartford (HIG) and Munich American Risk Partners. Other insurance companies are being investigated in a scheme that Spitzer said raises everyone's insurance premiums.~snip~


Maurice, fwiw, is Chairman of the Nixon Center; and, Evan is on its Advisory Council http://web.archive.org/web/20050205063607/www.nixoncenter.org/boardac.htm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACE_Limited

company website
http://www.acelimited.com/AceLimitedRoot/

2008 proxy to stockholders
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/10/100/100907/items/296717/2008%20Proxy%20Statement.pdf

Evan's total compensation for the fiscal year was $14,400,000.

The intro of the proxy talks about de-registering in the Caymans; and, the need to set up the company
under Swiss law.


Evan's bio includes:

ACE Snapshot
2001 -- Present

* Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, ACE Limited – May 2007
* President & Chief Executive Officer, ACE Limited – May 2004 to May 2007
* President & Chief Operating Officer, ACE Limited – June 2003 to May 2004
* Chairman, ACE Tempest Re — June 2003 to May 2004
* Vice Chairman, ACE Limited – November 2001 to June 2003
* Chief Executive Officer, ACE Overseas General – April 2002 to July 2003
* Chief Executive Officer, ACE Tempest Re – November 2001 to August 2002

AIG Snapshot
1975 -- 2000

* President & Chief Operating Officer, AIG 1997 – 2000
* President & Chief Executive Officer, American International Underwriters (AIU), AIG’s Foreign General Insurance Organization – 1994 – 1997
* Chief Operating Officer and subsequently Chief Executive Officer, AIG Companies in Japan and Korea – 1991 – 1994
* Member, AIG Board of Directors – 1996
* Executive Vice President, AIG – 1995
* Various underwriting and management positions (A&H, Life, P&C) - 1975 – 1991

Affiliations

* Chairman, American Insurance Association (AIA)
* Vice Chairman, Property-Casualty, CEO Roundtable
* Fellow of The Foreign Policy Association
* Overseer of The International Rescue Committee
* Member of the Council on Foreign Relations ... Carla A. Hills is current CFR Board member. So is Robert Rubin. http://www.cfr.org/about/people/board_of_directors.html Carla once was on AIG's Board of Directors. She was Poppy's Trade Rep. Maurice Greenberg is one of CFR's Officers and Directors Emeriti (so is David Rockefeller; and Pete Peterson of the Blackstone Group. Pete's at the Nixon Center, too). They're thick as thieves over there.
* Member of The Business Roundtable
* Member of G100
* Member of The Nixon Center
* Member of The Geneva Association
* Trustee of the New York Philharmonic
* Trustee of the Eisenhower Fellowships

http://www.acelimited.com/AceLimitedRoot/About+ACE/Executive+Team/Evan+G.+Greenberg.htm


ACE was established in 1985 by a consortium of 34 Fortune 500 companies to provide hard-to-find excess liability and directors and officers coverage. Since then, ACE has evolved from a monoline excess insurer owned by its policyholders to a global publicly-traded insurance company and one of the world's leading providers of commercial property and casualty insurance and reinsurance.


2008

* ACE Limited moves its place of incorporation from the Cayman Islands to Zurich, Switzerland.
* ACE doubles its Accident & Health business with the purchase of Combined Insurance Company of America for $2.56 billion.
* ACE acquires the high-net-worth personal lines business of the Atlantic Companies.
* ACE opens an office in Panama.

2006

* ACE enters the U.S. life reinsurance market with the acquisition of Hart Life Insurance Company.

more history

http://www.acelimited.com/AceLimitedRoot/About+ACE/ACE+History/


Random article found searching the Internet:

Sins of the Son

What Led to Jeffrey Greenberg's Forced Resignation?

~snip~ Jeff resigned in 1995, after two things happened in rapid succession. First, Hank promoted Evan to the rank of executive vice-president, putting him on equal footing with his brother for the first time in their seventeen years together at AIG, a move that reportedly blindsided Jeff. Then, in late spring, Hank convened a dinner at the ‘21’ Club with executives of Jeff’s domestic-brokerage unit. Hank had traditionally scheduled off-site dinners to announce good news, like promotions, so most of the executives were looking forward to the evening. But when they arrived, they found Hank in a foul mood. “It was a general ass-kicking,” recalls Jeff’s de facto No. 2 at AIG, Bill Smith. “Jeff got in the middle of it, and Hank beat the hell out of him.” Several days later, according to Smith, Jeff told his subordinates he’d had enough, and tendered his resignation. ~snip~

http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/bizfinance/biz/features/10348/index2.html

I just sense there's a whole lot of iceberg below the tip.

[DemReadingDU]

156. Very interesting!

Somehow, I bet it's all tied together.

Thanks for the links!

[Demeter]

162. Good Digging! Lots to Think About There

After all, crime seems to run in families....

[cosmicdot]

164. seems others have wondered about Marsh, too

ran across this 2-year old dungeon thread today

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=125x92675#96552

[Demeter]

140. Well, Who ISN"T Complaining? Who's Quietly Sitting Pretty?

We don't hear much out of Carlyle, since they cut their losses early, unloading their mortgage crap on an unsuspecting public when they spun off the division as a public stock company.

Carlyle means Poppy. Course, he might be a bit distracted by Babs' surgery, but still.

Don't hear much out of Cheney, except that his dog Scooter is still in the pound and he's pissed about that. But since Darth may be feeling the effects of the Dark Force drawing too close, he may be a bit distracted, too.

Who else is keeping a real low profile?


TIME TO TAX THE HELL OUT OF THESE VULTURES!

[Tansy_Gold]

148. CNN is at least putting this into the media

crossposted from GD thanks to Junkdrawer

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5194262



The possibility that AIG is paying off on $100K insurance policies on $1 houses just makes me . . . . . . . . . almost reconsider my stand on FRSPs.




Tansy Gold, eschewing violence

[Demeter]

152. Giving It Up for Lent, Eh?

It's only 40 odd days reprieve for the heads....

[Robbien]

61. German banksters sue their employer to get bonuses

Hell hath no fury like a banker gypped of his bonus, or so it seems by the latest moves from Dresdner Kleinwort.

In an escalating row that has been brewing since Commerzbank bought the London-based investment bank as part of its purchase of Dresdner late last year, Dresdner Kleinwort bankers are planning to sue Commerzbank over unpaid bonuses, accusing their new owner of breaking a commitment to pay out tens of millions of pounds this year.

. . .

Shortly after Commerzbank took over Dresdner Bank, staff say they were given verbal commitments by the chief executive in a video link-up to DK’s overseas offices that their bonuses would be paid. That commitment, they say, was followed up by letters in December confirming the commitment but containing a “material adverse change” clause that is now emerging as the crux of the case.

The trigger came two weeks ago when Commerzbank said it would scrap all but a few bonuses after a German public outcry over plans to honour a €400m compensation pot set aside last summer by Allianz, Dresdner’s previous owner. It also came after Commerzbank received a German government bailout last year and indicated it is expecting a second consecutive annual loss this year on the back of rising loan loss provisions and some €2bn ($2.5bn) in costs for the integration of Dresdner Bank.

Also last month, Commerzbank’s CFO Eric Strutz last month called on DK bankers to voluntarily give up bonuses guaranteed by their contracts, saying he was counting on their “goodwill”. And just to rub some of DK’s senior bankers’ noses in it, he added in a conference call with journalists: “I call on those who generated losses to live up to their responsibility”. The bank was also keen to let it be known that former Dresdner CEO Herbert Walter and Dresdner Kleinwort’s ex- chief Stefan Jentzsch had both given up their bonuses.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/05/53230/dresdner-takes-bonus-battles-to-new-highs/

[Roland99]

62. CNBC: You can have my capital gains when you pry it from my cold, dead hands

The hand-wringing over an increase from 15% to 20% in the capital gains tax is just amazing. One would think that Obama is trying to turn the U.S. into China or the old Soviet Union and make everything become property of the State.

And now Boone Pickens is on and Kudlow is, and forgive me for this crude remark but none other suffice, licking his nutsack that natural gas is great and amazing and will save us all and that Obama is horrible for wanting to increase taxes on it (and other forms of energy)



Who needs Jerry Springer in the daytime when we have CNBC now?!?!

[AnneD]

97. I use to work at Gulf Oil....

Far worse names and charges have been leveled at him in abstentia. Hell, I've said worse.

[Roland99]

63. 11:34am - Forging new lows

DJIA 6,658.80 -217.04 -3.16%
Nasdaq 1,311.59 -42.15 -3.11%
S&P 500 686.62 -26.25 -3.68%
Global Dow 1,167.27 -33.63 -2.80%
Dow Util 294.63 -12.72 -4.14%
NYSE 4,287.87 -177.02 -3.96%
AMEX 1,275.14 -5.73 -0.45%
Russell 2000 354.30 -17.00 -4.58%
Semcond 198.46 -1.01 -0.50%
Gold future 913.20 +6.50 +0.72%
30-Year Bond 3.56% -0.14 -3.68%
10-Year Bond 2.87% -0.14 -4.75%

[Roland99]

64. Citigroup shares touch $1 for first time ever

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Citigroup-shares-touch-1-first/story.aspx?guid=%7BC0D2311F%2D8C0D%2D4A96%2D9928%2DFF6511A2962F%7D

Shares of troubled financial-services giant Citigroup Inc. fell to $1 for the first time ever on Thursday amid the latest sell-off in banking stocks. Citigroup shares are down about 85% so far in 2009. The stock reached an all-time high of $57 a share on Dec. 18, 2006. End of Story

[TalkingDog]

67. Oof! the dreaded Dow 6659. Just shy of Satanic

I have some friends who think 6500 is a good time to get back in. I'm convinced the bottom will be between 4500 and 4000.

When ever we get around to a pool,let me know.I'm sticking to the more optimistic 4500.

[Demeter]

68. I'm Not Convinced There's a Bottom

because until there's some kind of floor under the economy itself, (and laws rewritten to stop the people with axes hacking away at that floor), there is no reason for the market to make a stable level, let alone rise.

If we have to go back to barter, it's going to be a long time before we see anything like commerce again.

[Renew Deal]

73. I somewhat agree.

I think the bailouts are keeping us from getting there.

[Pale Blue Dot]

103. I believe that effect is only temporary

and will make things even worse in the long run.

[Renew Deal]

104. I agree with that too.

It's going to last longer, and be worse in the long run.

[Tansy_Gold]

71. If it's at 6659, it's already passed 6660 and headed further down

We is in deep doo doo now. . . . .. :evilgrin:

[GliderGuider]

74. Intra-day low now at 6630.44

:scared: :popcorn:

[GliderGuider]

76. And I just saw my real-time quote say 6660! Woot!

[Tansy_Gold]

78. Calling tclambert. Calling tclambert. We got another self-talker here.

:hi:



TG

[GliderGuider]

79. Hmph! Well, at least I'm talking to someone I respect.

Hi back at you, TG :crazy:

[Ghost Dog]

94. Heh heh. This one's for you, GG,

a comment on a comment on this OP, "Enough banker welfare. Hand out cash and make us spend it", by Simon Jenkins in yesterday's Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/04/recession-bankers-economy-simon-jenkins?commentpage=2

"What is important, however -- if recurrent disaster is to be averted -- is to set a course now to a more sustainable model for the future, and to discredit the widely held fantasy that we shall be able to return to ''business as usual'' once the crisis is over."

Absolutely. Unfortunately, the human capacity for delusion and wishful thinking being what it is, almost no-one accepts this. The recent BBC programme A Farm for the Future was the first Ive seen to mention the taboo subject of Peak Oil and the fact that the UK is likely to experience difficulties merely feeding its population, let alone maintaining current standards of living and expectation, once oil supplies start to decline. There seems to be a conspiracy of silence about future constraints. Everyone is merrily claiming to be against protectionism and for endless free trade, as if there were already some miracle fuel waiting around the corner to power all those container ships that allow us the temporary madness of sending food and other goods back and forward around the globe in a way that no rational and informed person could believe possible for much longer.

And is this being discussed in public by either politicians or the media? No, were still discussing new runways on the assumption that we can keep current numbers of planes in the sky with whatever miracle fuel we think the technowizards will deliver and that everyone who currently bunny hops around the planet for a tenner a pop plus tax will still be able to do so once oil costs 500$ a barrel – or any sum you care to name once the production curve starts to plummet.

Banks presumably know more than the average punter about the imminence of the energy crisis. Why would they invest in anything that they secretly know to be unsustainable? Why would they lend on 25-yr mortgages, if they know better than most that whatever situation exists 25 years from now, it certainly isnt going to be business as usual.

While government leaders are still talking to one another, we should be agreeing the fairest and most manageable way down from the current energy ‘high. EVERYTHING is fundamentally about energy – you cant make things without it and you cant transport things without it. The only choice is whether to grow up, face reality and contract our economies and our lives in a way that avoids total chaos and maintains as much fairness, social cohesion and general decency as possible – or behave like children, continue to pretend that the ‘party was normal and claim that anything else is ‘just not fair.

[GliderGuider]

111. "The only choice is whether to grow up ... or behave like children" Nice. Thank you.

Some people are starting to get it. :toast:

[Hugin]

80. I do it all the time on Market Updates...

:P

[specimenfred1984]

88. The bottom will occur when corruption is addressed with arrests

Until then, the U.S. markets are viewed as corrupt and further viewed that nothing is being done to stop it. A country cannot let war criminals go free and expect to be trusted. For example, would you invest in Sudan or the Saddam Hussein regime when he was alive? The U.S. propaganda networks have convinced people that economics and politics are 2 separate entities but they are not. Jon Stewart pointed it out last night, we are being ripped off by institutional criminals and lied to daily by their corporate propagandists.

[radfringe]

98. if any of us "F***ed up this bad

we'd be getting our butts kicked out the door - not freaking bonuses, promotions, retention awards etc.

and yes you are right - when the corruption is addressed, we will be at the bottom and confidence will return.

[Dr.Phool]

126. Squawking Head on CNBC talking about prosecutable felonies!

And nobody is being prosecuted!

You'd think somebody robbed his piggy bank or somethin'.

[Robbien]

77. Credit Suisse US luxury resort investments turning into toxic waste

<snip>

Then the real estate market went south, and sales at Tamarack slowed. In December 2007, just 19 months after taking the Credit Suisse loan, Boespflug missed a $5 million payment.

Tamarack is one of at least eight high-end projects in the U.S. West, Florida and the Caribbean financed by Zurich-based Credit Suisse that are either in default or in bankruptcy.

Those failures reverberate in the financial system because Credit Suisse sold loans to investors who, in turn, put them into mutual funds or packaged them into securities called collateralized-loan obligations.

. . .

Many banks matched borrowers with eager investors during the real estate boom. Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second- largest bank, was unusual in that it made big loans -- $250 million to $675 million each -- and because it almost cornered the market on syndicated loans to posh developments such as Tamarack, says Joseph Snider, senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service, which rated the projects for a fee so that Credit Suisse could sell the debt.

Many of the loans, which earned the bank millions of dollars in fees, were made out of Credit Suisse’s Los Angeles office and were then sold to investors by a group of Credit Suisse bankers in New York.

. . .

In February, Credit Suisse reported a record loss for 2008 of 8.2 billion Swiss francs ($7 billion), in part because of its exposure to toxic U.S. real estate-related debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aT4PzNc1EgrU&refer=home

[Robbien]

86. Appears the Caribbean is going kaput financially

PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad: There seems to be more discovery, or non discovery, in the CLICO financial debacle, as lawyers and auditors are working to find out what has happened to more than $5 billion from CLICO's Statutory Fund.

The Trinidad Guardian reported that CLICO employees, who were told by the company's newly appointed managing director, Claude Musaib-Ali, that he did not know where the money went and were not sure to retrieve it, are now calling on their boss and former CL Financial chief, Lawrence Duprey, to come clean and answer to them and their clients on where the money has gone.

"We have auditors and lawyers trying to find it. We don't know where it went to," Musaib-Ali told workers when he held a meeting with them.

. . .

He told workers that "probably in a few months" he would meet with them, when he would be able to inform them "where the money went and if they have got some back". This forced some of the workers to erupt into laughter.

The workers were informed that the insurance company was facing a rough time and urged them to tighten their belts and put their shoulders to the wheel to come up with an improved service in order to survive.

http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/news-14611--17-17--.html

The far-ranging effects of the CL Financial failure have now reached Guyana. One blogger has been assiduously following the latest developments…

One of Living Guyana's earliest posts centered around the “breaking news” that “the Guyana Bank for Trade and Industry is in dire financial straits and has applied to the Bank of Guyana for a GY$1billion bailout.”

. . .

Not surprisingly, Living Guyana also posts reports of “a major run on CLICO”, even as a motion was reportedly filed to freeze the company's assets. In a recent update, the blogger also says that there has been “an internal rush on Citizens Bank yesterday after news broke of the government takeover of Clico”:

. . .

The blogger is also critical of the performance of CLICO Guyana CEO Gita Singh-Knight, and thinks that the country's President seemed “defeated and confused” at the press conference on the Clico Guyana takeover

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/02/27/guyana-the-ripple-effect/


And then there is the loss caused by Stanford.

[DemReadingDU]

92. Michael Hudson - "The Way We Were and What We Are Becoming"

Excellent!

3/4/09 Guns and Butter - "The Way We Were and What We Are Becoming"
"The Way We Were and What We Are Becoming" with financial economist and historian, Dr. Michael Hudson. We begin with an analysis of the continuing bailout of insurance giant AIG and Monday's stock market selloff; price and debt deflation; the two sectors of the economy; two definitions of 'free markets'; the classical economists; revolution from the right and the former Soviet states; the threat of war; IMF/World Bank resurgence; the dollar versus the euro; analogies to Rome, neo-feudalism.

http://kpfa.org/archive/id/48892

This is appx 1 hour.

[Robbien]

93. Judge: Nadel-Advised Ponzi Fund Must Return Its Maserati

http://www.finalternatives.com/node/7148

Awwww.

[specimenfred1984]

114. Even I'm asking "how low can it go"?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a big rally up to some crappy technical level before the ruinous policies of ignoring criminals resumes it's natural course of destruction.

[DemWynner]

116. I don't think it is coming back for a while

This is not good, I am usually optimistic, but this is very scary!

[specimenfred1984]

117. I'm not optimistic about a real rally, just the usual manipulation

The entire bull or bear mentality is gone, real business models have nothing to do with corruption as I pointed out earlier to a guy who worships mob figures. I'm talking about a prop, an intervention into our "free" markets and the props usually follow the 38% to 50% retracements.

[Xenotime]

123. Anything being done about * for leaving us with this mess? No.

Why?

[Demeter]

144. Justice Department Was Offline for 8+ Years

You coul dmake a case that even Clinton's Justice Department was mostly offline. Between ignoring Iran/Contra and fighting Ken Starr, Clinton didn't get much justice done. Bush did none. He was too busy committing crimes to prosecute any.

So they're a little behind, but at least they are starting to shift the piles into gear.

[Roland99]

120. At the close (well, a bit of settling left but I gotta run) - NASDAQ under 1,300

DJIA 6,594.28 -281.56 -4.09%
Nasdaq 1,299.59 -54.15 -4.00%
S&P 500 682.56 -30.31 -4.25%
Global Dow 1,165.00 -35.90 -2.99%
Dow Util 296.31 -11.04 -3.59%
NYSE 4,267.69 -197.20 -4.42%
AMEX 1,261.97 -18.90 -1.48%
Russell 2000 349.58 -21.72 -5.85%
Semcond 197.25 -3.02 -1.51%
Gold future 927.80 +21.10 +2.33%
30-Year Bond 3.51% -0.19 -5.22%
10-Year Bond 2.82% -0.19 -6.38%

[Renew Deal]

121. NASDAQ 5000

Will it catch up to the Dow? :party:

:banghead:

[54anickel]

129. OMG that's ugly! n/t

[UpInArms]

124. In the new U.S. property market, old guys are hot

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE52477X20090305?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ted Leary's retirement was short lived. After saying good-bye to real estate in 2005, Leary headed for the golf course, but the collapsing commercial property market interrupted his game.

A career that began in the 1970s with the rehabilitation of soured real estate investments had come full circle.

"Suddenly, at the tender age of 64, people are calling me because there aren't many workout people around," he said, referring to the art of solving problems linked to troubled real estate.

As more deals run into trouble, grizzled veterans with a broad range of knowledge in finance, law, property management and relationship management -- along with keen negotiation skills -- will be in demand.

<snip>

"We've had a whole generation of people in our business that have never seen anything but numbers that get better," Leary said.

But the era of the high-leverage deal ended abruptly and debt financing, the life-blood of the industry, has slowed to a trickle. The sector is in a steep downturn, with sales drying up and values falling.

...more...

does that mean I should dust off my "Distressed Assets Specialist" resume?

[Hugin]

125. That's hawt!

: paris :


Hmm... There's hope for me yet.

[Caretha]

134. uhhh, maybe so

Put it out there and see if it flies :)

[Demeter]

145. Absolutely! You're Marketable!

You go, girl!

[Lucky Luciano]

157. Are you really a distressed asset specialist?

A ton of hedge funds would love to have you if you are good!

[UpInArms]

160. well, that's what I was

for the FDIC and insurance companies and savings and loans in the late 80s and 90s

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

135. Anyone got a strop?

[Demeter]

146. At this point, you'd need a transfusion, first

How much is left in the Treasury?

[skoalyman]

149. won't they just ok more money to be set aside

:shrug:

[Demeter]

150. That Actually Made Me Laugh

and lord knows, with the kid throwing up in the car this afternoon, I needed the laugh.

[skoalyman]

154. glad I could make someone laugh

:toast: say doesn't the jobs report come out tomorrow if it does its bound to be a duzzy of a day :scared:

[Demeter]

159. There are no Good Days, Just the Bad, the Worse and the Ugly.

[Tansy_Gold]

161. Headline. . . . . . meet sig line. . . . . . . . . . . .

Cheer up, oh goddess of crops and fields, of fertility and marriage, of the seasons and the green earth. It was Demeter who mourned her daughter Persephone, lost to Hades for half the year, and let the world go dormant and cold, then awakened it to life and newness when her child returned.

The christians re-explained the seasons to fit their new vision of deity, and so they invoked Lent to give meaning to the lean times when winter stores dwindled down but the new crops had not yet come to fruit.

the world goes round, the stars turn on their greater orbits, and the universe is far more than we can evr grasp.

Cheer up, Demeter. There are good days. Some better than others, and some worse, but all is not lost. Not yet.




Tansy Gold, philosopher :hi: