STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 12

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 12, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 1

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 11, 2009

Dow... 6,930.40 +3.91 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq... 1,371.64 +13.36 (+0.98%)
S&P 500... 721.36 +1.76 (+0.24%)
Gold future... 910.70 +14.80 (+1.63%)
30-Year Bond 3.66% -0.05 (-1.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.92% -0.07 (-2.21%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Not Out of the Woods Yet, Not By a Long Shot!
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

For those of you who missed my article last week after the disruption of Financial Sense, I’d recommend reading it as today’s article is a continuation of my thoughts from my prior article. You can click on the link below:

"Da Bulls versus Da Bears... Daaaaa Bears"

To briefly recap, I stated that the greatest risk I face is missing the turn in the markets due to my strong bearish leaning over the past two years, and that I needed to keep my opinions open and search for signs of stabilization. The first figure in last week’s article highlighted that we have indeed witnessed one of the first signs of economic stabilization, which it has, and that is the negative contribution from housing to GDP bottoms. While the bottoming of the negative contribution of housing is clearly a positive development, I dug deeper into the details of GDP for the bigger picture, looking at housing from various angles.

One of the key tip offs that housing was in a bubble and likely to correct was by viewing the size of residential real estate relative to GDP, which peaked near the upper historical range of 6%, and has now declined to its long run historical bottom. Thus, it is no surprise to see the drag on GDP from residential real estate abating.

-chart-

However, we are far from being out of the woods in relation to housing. While residential fixed investment (think new home building) may be near a bottom as home builders slash projects, there is still a MASSIVE glut of homes still on the market that will depress home values well into next year. While the supply of new homes for sale relative to the number of US households is nearing a bottom, existing homes for sale relative to the number of US households is nowhere close to a bottom, far from it! Home builders are the first to respond to economic conditions as they slash prices to clear inventory, while homeowners hold out on the belief that housing prices will rebound and become forced sellers well into a housing correction when they capitulate. This relationship can be seen below where existing homes for sale relative to households lags new home sales by roughly 18 months. Also bear in mind that the size of existing homes for sale is nearly 4 times the size of new homes for sale. Thus, we can expect housing prices to continue to decline until the inventory of existing homes can be brought down, with the negative wealth effect of falling real estate prices to continue to weigh on the consumers psyche for the foreseeable future.

....

In addition to the role of nonresidential real estate depressing GDP growth will be consumption. Many wise analysts have pointed out that when the US consumer does tap out, it won’t be with a whimper but a bang as personal consumption expenditures make up roughly 70% of GDP. This is exactly what makes a large retrenchment in consumer spending so significant, as residential real estate made up ONLY 6% of GDP at its peak while personal consumption is roughly 70%. To show how significant the impact of a retrenchment in consumer spending means for GDP growth, look at the figure below. You can see that the decline in consumption nearly shaved off 3% of GDP growth in the last two quarters, and to add insult to injury, nonresidential real estate shaved off more than 2% to GDP growth in the recent quarter.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[DemReadingDU]

24. Chris Puplava - Negative Developments

more from the WrapUp...

While there are some positive developments present in the market, there is one development that has me greatly concerned, and that is the risk coming out of Eastern Europe. As many newsletter writers have pointed out, Eastern European countries are experiencing severe stress as their economies topple and stock markets plunge; and there is a risk of an Eastern European currency crisis that could be even more severe than the Asian Currency Crisis that occurred in 1997-1998. For a more in depth analysis of the situation in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe, please read the March newsletter from Niels C. Jensen of Absolute Return Partners LLP (“Europe on the Ropes”), with excerpts provided below as well as the following graphic from The Wall Street Journal (emphasis added).

So, with that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the European banking industry. The following is not pretty reading. I have rarely, if ever, felt this apprehensive about the outlook. So, if the crisis has made you depressed already, don’t read any further. What is about to come, will make your heart sink…

The problems in Eastern Europe begin and end with their large external debts. In recent years, ordinary people all over the region have converted their traditional mortgages to EUR- or CHF-denominated mortgages. Some have even switched to JPY mortgages. Who can possibly resist 3% mortgages? Didn’t anyone inform them of the risk? As currencies across the region have fallen out of bed in recent months, these mortgages have suddenly become 30-50% more expensive. No wonder the local economy is suddenly tanking…

According to the latest estimates from BIS, Eastern European countries currently borrow $1,656 billion from abroad, three times more than in 2005 and mostly denominated in foreign currencies (ouch!). 90% of that can be traced to Western European banks. About $350 billion must be repaid or rolled over this year. Not an easy task in these markets. Austrian banks alone have lent about $300 billion to the region, equivalent to 68% of its GDP according to the Financial Times. A default rate of 10% on its Eastern European loans is considered enough to wipe out the entire Austrian banking system. EBRD has gone on record stating that defaults in Eastern Europe could end up as high as 20%3.

On the 11th February the Daily Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield wrote an article under the header: “European banks may need £16.3 trillion bail out, EC document warns.” In the article, the reporter revealed that he has seen a secret document produced by the EU Commission which briefed the union’s finance ministers on the true extent of the banking crisis. Less than 24 hours later, the article’s header was changed to “European bank bail-out could push EU into crisis” and two paragraphs had mysteriously disappeared. Here they are:

“European Commission officials have estimated that “impaired assets” may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the ‘trading book’ total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.

In addition, so-called ‘available for sale instruments’ worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion.”

Do yourself a favour - read those two paragraphs again. Newspaper editors do not change content light-heartedly. Did the Telegraph editor receive a call from Downing Street? Or Brussels? Did he have second thoughts about the avalanche that he could possibly instigate? I don’t know and I probably never will. But one thing is certain. If the EU Commission’s estimate of £16.3 trillion of impaired assets is correct, then the crisis is far worse than any of us could ever imagine. Not only would we have to get used to the prospects of a systemic meltdown of our banking system, but entire nations may go down as well…

The most obvious trick left in the book, therefore, is to inflate us out of this mess. With the enormous amounts of public debt being created at the moment, years of deflation a la Japan would be catastrophic. You will never get a central banker to admit to it, but a healthy dose of inflation is probably our best prospect of surviving this crisis. Given this outlook, do you really want to be long euros?


Hopefully after reading the above comments from Mr. Jensen you can see how precarious the situation is in Europe. A major crisis in the region would reverberate across the globe just as the Asian Currency Crisis did last decade.

lots more...
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2009/0304.html

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 03/07
Briefing.com 640K
Consensus 644K
Prior 639K

08:30 Retail Sales Feb
Briefing.com -0.3%
Consensus -0.5%
Prior 1.0%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb
Briefing.com -0.1%
Consensus -0.1%
Prior 0.9%

10:00 Business Inventories Jan
Briefing.com -1.1%
Consensus -1.0%
Prior -1.3%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

45. Initial Claims @ 654,000 - last wk rev'd up 1k

05. U.S. Feb. retail sales fall 0.1% vs. -0.4% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

06. U.S. Feb. retail sales ex-autos up 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

07. U.S. Feb auto sales fall 4.3%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

08. U.S. Feb. gas station sales up 3.4%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

09. U.S. Feb. general merchandise store sales up 1.3%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

10. U.S. Jan. retail sales revised up to 1.8% gain vs. 1.0%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

16. U.S. retail sales down 8.6% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

17. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 9,000 to 654,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

18. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims up 6,750 to 650,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

19. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 193,000 to record 5.32M
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

20. U.S. 4-week avg. ongoing claims up 124,250 to record 5.14M
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

21. Insured unemployment rate rises to 4%, highest since 1983
8:30 AM ET, Mar 12, 2009

[UpInArms]

61. Business Inventories @ -1.1%

Mar 12 10:00 AM
Business Inventories Jan
report -1.1%
briefing.com -1.1%
concensus -1.0%
prior -1.6%
rev'd from -1.3%

[Ghost Dog]

89. U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Fall Less Than Forecast

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers in February fell less than forecast and a gain in January exceeded the previous estimate, indicating the biggest part of the economy may be starting to stabilize.

The Commerce Department’s figures mean the decline in gross domestic product this quarter will probably be less than anticipated. Still, a sustained recovery in purchases is unlikely until later in the year because of mounting unemployment, falling home and stock values and shrinking wealth, analysts said. Household wealth fell by a record $5.1 trillion in the last three months of 2008, Federal Reserve figures showed today.

“People are responding to discounting” as companies seek to get rid of surplus inventory, Roger Kubarych, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “In order to have a sustained increase in personal consumption, wealth has to go up.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a3X14wsr_9nA&refer=economy

[ozymandius]

3. Oil inches toward $43 as inventories rise weighed

SINGAPORE – Oil prices inched toward $43 a barrel Thursday in Asia after an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories, suggesting demand remains poor, sparked a big drop in prices overnight.

Benchmark crude for April delivery rose 48 cents to $42.81 a barrel by afternoon in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil prices fell $3.38 on Wednesday to settle at $42.33 a barrel after the Energy Information Administration said crude supplies in the U.S. climbed unexpectedly by 700,000 barrels for the week ended March 6. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., expected a drop of 1 million barrels.

The report also said U.S. demand for distillate fuel oil, which includes diesel fuel used by trucking companies, miners and manufacturers, dropped by 6.1 percent.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery rose 1.28 cents to $1.24 a gallon, while heating oil gained 0.89 cent to $1.26 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery rose 1.5 cents to $3.81 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. World markets stall amid resurgent economic fears

HONG KONG – World stock markets stalled Thursday, with Japan's index off more than 2 percent, as investors began to doubt a global rally could be sustained amid more grim news about the region's powerhouse economies.

Most Asian markets ended in the red, led by shares in automakers and financial firms, in lackluster trade that defied slim gains on Wall Street overnight. Major European bourses opened lower.

.....

On Thursday, revised figures showed that Japan's economy, the world's second largest, suffered its biggest contraction in 35 years in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product shrank at 12.1 percent annual rate in the October-December period, less than the Cabinet Office's preliminary reading of a 12.7 percent contraction, but still confirming a serious recession.

.....

As trading got underway in Europe, France's CAC 40 fell 2.1 percent, Germany's DAX retreated 1.8 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.9 percent. U.S. futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street Thursday. Dow futures slipped 45 points, or 0.7 percent, to 6,869 and S&P500 futures fell 2.8, or 0.4 percent, to 717.70.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell 177.87 points, 2.4 percent, to 7,198.25 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng recovered early losses to gain 70.87, or 0.6 percent, to 12,001.53.

South Korea's Kospi inched marginally higher but markets in Singapore, Australia, mainland China, Taiwan and elssewhere traded lower.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090312/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Ghost Dog]

17. Chinese output growth slumps to record low

BEIJING, March 12 (Reuters) - China's industrial growth ground down to a record low at the start of the year, but a continued surge in bank lending in February spurred optimism that the economy could soon rebound.

Retail sales also slowed in the first two months, though only slightly, showing that Chinese consumers, like the broader economy itself, remain in better shape than their counterparts in the rest of the world.

...

China's annual industrial output growth slowed to 3.8 percent in January and February, the slowest pace on record and down from 5.7 percent in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday. Economists had forecast a rise of 6.4 percent.

Production in February alone rose 11 percent from a year earlier, though the growth was exaggerated because the timing of Chinese New Year holidays gave the month five more working days than February 2008.

Officials have rushed money to big infrastructure projects, from railways to power plants, but they are still struggling to fill a vacuum left by a collapse in exports, which plunged 25.6 percent in February from a year earlier.

...

CREDIT BOOM

The confidence repeatedly voiced by Chinese leaders that the economy is on the cusp of recovery has been underpinned by phenomenally strong growth in bank lending since late last year, a trend that continued in February.

New yuan loans last month totalled 1.07 trillion yuan ($157 billion), the central bank said on Thursday, down from the record of 1.62 trillion yuan in January, but still very high by historical standards.

With 10 months to go in 2009, China is already more than halfway towards reaching its goal of at least 5 trillion yuan in new bank lending.

"Given how the Chinese government is keen to extend credit at the start of the year in order to support the stimulus projects later in the year, that's not too big of a surprise," said Sherman Chan, an analyst with Moody's Economy.com in Sydney.

The burst of lending helped propel annual growth in the broad M2 measure of money supply to 20.5 percent in February from 18.8 percent in January.

State-owned banks have been answering the government's call to provide a huge chunk of the financing for the 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package designed to keep the country on track for the official target of 8 percent growth.

The explosion in credit is in part explained by banks' desire to lend to the first batch of approved investment schemes, for which quality and government support are just about guaranteed.

...

Annual growth in China's retail sales slowed to 15.2 percent in the first two months from 19.0 percent in December, the NBS said. But since the figures are nominal and do not account for the fall in consumer prices thus far in 2009, consumption has actually been relatively steady in inflation-adjusted terms.

"Consumption is particularly strong despite uncertainties about future income levels. You can see the role being played by the government's policies to boost consumption," said Lin Songli, an economist with Guosen Securities in Beijing.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK7351320090312?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

18. Japan mired in slump, inventories to weigh on recovery

TOKYO, March 12 (Reuters) - A rise in inventories made Japan's fourth-quarter slump slightly less severe than initially reported, but further darkened the gloomy outlook for the world's No. 2 economy by highlighting tumbling demand for Japanese goods.

Revised data showed the economy shrank 3.2 percent in the final quarter of 2008, slightly less than the preliminary 3.3 percent figure, but still marking the deepest contraction since the oil crisis of 1974.

Inventories more than doubled during the quarter to 4.6 trillion yen ($47.6 billion) and their contribution to the overall output was revised slightly upwards compared with last month's preliminary data.

But the growing pile of unsold goods signalled more production and jobs cutbacks in months ahead and a deepening of what is already shaping up as Japan's longest and deepest recession since World War Two.

...

The revised data showed fourth-quarter economic output plunged at an annualised rate of 12.1 percent, below an earlier estimate of 12.7 percent, but still a much steeper decline that those suffered by other, less export-dependent, major economies.

...

After Thursday's data, some analysts said an even deeper slump was possible.

"Now we are starting to think the contraction in January-March could be bigger than October-December," said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities.

...

Many economists expect the economy to bottom out some time this year, helped by a possible recovery in China and stimulus packages in the United States and Japan.

Others say the malaise could well continue beyond this year.

...

Japan has long relied on exports and capital spending to make up for subdued consumer spending and the collapse in demand left it particularly exposed to the global downturn.

A plunge in exports shaved 3.0 percentage points off GDP in the fourth quarter, in line with the initial estimate, while corporate capital spending slumped 5.4 percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP40832120090312?rpc=44&sp=true

[ozymandius]

5. Foreclosures up 30 percent in February (despite halts by some lenders)

WASHINGTON – Despite halts on new foreclosures by several major lenders, the number of households threatened with losing their homes rose 30 percent in February from last year's levels, RealtyTrac reported Thursday.

Nationwide, nearly 291,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month, up 6 percent from January, according to the Irvine, Calif-based company. While foreclosures are highly concentrated in the Western states and Florida, the problem is spreading to states like Idaho, Illinois and Oregon as the U.S. economy worsens.

....

The rise in foreclosure filings came despite temporary halts to foreclosures by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and major banks JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America. Those companies pledged to do so in advance of President Barack Obama's plan to stem the foreclosure crisis, which was launched last week.

Two states that contributing to the increase were Florida and New York, where temporary bans on foreclosures ended.

....

While the number of foreclosures continue to soar nationwide, banks have held off listing properties for sale, Sharga said. There were around 700,000 such properties nationwide at the end of last year, making up a "shadow inventory" of unsold homes that could drag the housing crisis out even longer.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090312/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates

[radfringe]

20. Mortgage Investors Call for Changes in Rescue Plan

Mortgage Investors Call for Changes in Rescue Plan
Wall Street Journal - March 12, 2009
By RUTH SIMON
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123682290961203725.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Investors who hold billions of dollars of residential mortgage-backed securities are pressing the Obama administration to make changes in its housing rescue plan.

Participation by these investors will help determine the success of President Barack Obama's $75 billion plan to reduce foreclosures and help stabilize the housing market. But many investors are critical of features of the program and have been meeting with Treasury officials in an effort to influence parts of the plan, such as how it treats second mortgages.

Some investors say they are contemplating legal action because they think the administration's plan and legislation before Congress would violate their rights. They are particularly concerned about measures that would prevent lawsuits against mortgage servicers, which collect loan payments for the investors and are responsible for modifying loans with homeowners.

"Investors are given rights through the contracts in the securities, and we expect those rights to be honored," said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer of TCW Group Inc., which manages roughly $52 billion in residential mortgage-backed securities.

[amandabeech]

85. Well, I suppose that the lawyers are on alert.

It would be an interesting case involving the "sanctity of contract."

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. foreclosure filings rise in February

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1145207620090312?sp=true

NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. home foreclosure activity resumed its upturn in February after a brief dip, despite numerous programs meant to quell the record pace of failing mortgages, RealtyTrac reported on Thursday.

Filings, which include notice of default, auction sale or bank repossession, rose 6 percent in February after slipping 10 percent in January, and leaped 30 percent from a year ago, the Irvine, California-based real estate data firm said.

One in every 440 households with loans drew a filing last month, RealtyTrac said. Nearly 291,000 properties in the U.S. got a foreclosure filing in February, the third highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began tracking the data in January 2005.

"The rate of foreclosure activity is increasing beyond the ability of even these types of moratoria to slow down," Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac, said in an interview, referring to major state and corporate moratoriums on foreclosures.

...more...

[ozymandius]

6. Madoff due in court for plea in massive fraud case (today's the day)

NEW YORK – The day of reckoning for Bernard Madoff arrives with expectations that the decades spent by the financier soliciting billions of dollars with bogus promises of safe returns will end with a public confession to history's worst Ponzi scheme.

In a packed federal courtroom, Madoff was expected Thursday to deliver on his lawyer's prediction that he will plead guilty to all 11 felony charges brought by prosecutors, ending a half-century career that saw him rise to Nasdaq chairman and one of Wall Street's elite. The plea could result in a maximum prison term of 150 years.

Madoff, 70, also faces the prospect of coming face to face for the first time since his December arrest with some of the thousands of investors whose accounts prosecutors say he oversaw since at least the 1980s.

A plea would mark the first time Madoff has spoken publicly about the scheme. The judge must hear him describe his crimes in his own words to accept it.

U.S. District Judge Denny Chin said that, assuming Madoff goes forward with plans for a guilty plea, he will give investors a chance to challenge his conclusion whether to accept a guilty plea to securities fraud and perjury, among other charges. He also will let burned investors challenge his decision whether Madoff should be allowed to await sentencing in his $7 million Manhattan penthouse or immediately go to prison.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090312/ap_on_bi_ge/madoff_scandal

[saigon68]

27. He's going to "Club FED" for 6 months then out on the lecture circuit

Maxwell AFB is getting nice this time of year. The putting green and the tennis courts are just becoming playable

[ozymandius]

7. National Semiconductor to cut more than 1,700 jobs

National Semiconductor Corp. plans to cut more than 1,700 jobs, about a fourth of its workforce, as the recession eats into sales at the maker of mobile-phone chips.

The Santa Clara, Calif., company will eliminate 850 positions now and 875 over the next few quarters. The reductions will occur in areas including manufacturing, sales and marketing. The company also will shut plants in China and Texas.

Sales this quarter will drop as much as 10% from the previous period as customers curb spending, the company said.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-briefs12-2009mar12,0,460929.story

---

Other news briefs are on this page - including job cuts at Dell.

[radfringe]

8. WOOOOOT!!! first REC of the day... n/t

[ozymandius]

11. Thank you for the 'toon.

It's been awhile. :hi:

[radfringe]

12. Glad to pass them along when I do them...

With the commute, I have long work days, and then there's the chores when I get home.

[DemReadingDU]

22. Great toon, Thanks! n/t

[ozymandius]

9. Freddie Mac Says Dividends to Treasury May Bury Future Profits

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac, the U.S. mortgage- finance company seized by regulators six months ago, said it needs more financial help from the government and raised doubts about its ability to become profitable again.

Freddie’s decision yesterday to tap an additional $31 billion in aid in return for preferred stock will raise its annual dividend payment to the Treasury to $4.6 billion, a figure the McLean, Virginia-based company said may be beyond its means.

.....

The company has posted earnings large enough to cover such a payment in only two of the past 19 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. An inability to make good on dividends may force the Treasury to raise the interest, write off the debt or assume full control of Freddie, which was put under government control along with its larger competitor, Fannie Mae, on Sept. 6.

.....

Freddie and Fannie Mae own or guarantee about $5.2 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. residential mortgage market. Since the takeover, regulators have been pressuring the companies to offer low-cost mortgage refinancings and waive loan standards to help curb foreclosures amid the worst U.S. housing market since the Great Depression.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYLqBAPc1XCY&refer=home

[Demeter]

10. Let God Sort 'Em Out— By Kevin Drum

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2009/03/let-god-sort-em-out

Richard Shelby (R–AL), the ranking minority member of the Senate Banking Committee, doesn't want to nationalize ailing big banks like Citigroup. He thinks we should just shut them down, like we do with smaller banks. Josh Marshall comments:

Something like this is both heartening and insanely distressing at the same time because what exactly does he think people are talking about when people talk about nationalization? They're talking about some form of FDIC-like takeover, though probably one that would take longer and be much more complicated since you simply can't find another bank that is going to buy or most of its assets at some knock-down price over the weekend — certainly not in the present climate. You either clean the bank up (which would require what amounts to a de facto bankruptcy proceeding) and sell it back into private hands or break it up and sell it off in individual pieces — likely some combination of the two.

This is worth unpacking a little bit. The FDIC is not set up to run distressed banks. It's set up to either (a) sell them off immediately to another bank or (b) hold onto them just long enough to liquidate everything. And the FDIC is really, really not set up to run a big money center bank like Citigroup, which is both a normal depository institution plus a fantastic agglomeration of other financial entities, including derivatives underwriting, asset management, private equity portfolios, a staggering variety of trading operations spread all over the world, and one of the world’s biggest insurance companies. This is not FDIC territory.

Selling off Citigroup is also not an option. Who's big enough to buy them? Nobody. What's more, their stock is currently selling for about buck a share. There are thousands of rich investors who could buy the whole place, lock stock and barrel, anytime they wanted to. But no one wants to. There's a reason, after all, that huge chunks of the stuff on Citi's balance sheet is called toxic waste.

So: the FDIC can't run Citigroup and nobody in their right mind wants to buy them. On the other hand, with Citi's stock hovering around a dollar, their shareholders have already lost nearly their entire investment. Allowing Citi to fail would hardly cause them any more damage than they've already suffered. So why not just let them go under, as Shelby wants?

The answer is that we could do this. This was the gamble Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson took last September when they allowed Lehman Brothers to fail — dammit, it's time to enforce some market discipline on these guys! — and their gamble failed spectacularly. The global financial system nearly collapsed even though Lehman wasn't all that big.

But hey — maybe Lehman taught everyone a lesson. Maybe all of Citgroup's creditors and counterparties have already priced in the possibility of default. You never know. And maybe if Citigroup fails, and they all end up with a bunch of worthless notes, they'll just shrug and go about their business.

Then again, maybe not. Maybe Citigroup really is too big to fail. And maybe if they fail, and all their creditors and noteholders and counterparties are stiffed, maybe they'll all fail too. And then all of their creditors and noteholders and counterparties will also fail. Etc. And then it's back to the dark ages for all of us.

Which is it? I don't know. All I can say is: Richard Shelby has way bigger balls than I do. Call me a wuss if you must, but I'm really not willing to gamble on nuclear meltdown, especially since I think the odds are pretty strongly in favor of Citigroup having the ability to take all the rest of us down with them if they collapse. Shelby, however, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee, guardian of the nation's financial health, is apparently willing to just say "fuck it," roll the dice, and hope against hope for snake eyes.

Of course, this is precisely the kind of imbecilic, high-stakes gambling that got us into this mess in the first place. Maybe Shelby ought to think twice before deciding that the hair of the dog might get us out.

[ozymandius]

14. It's tough-guy talk from Senator Shelby.

One could also call it crazy talk. To 'shut down' an entity as big as Citi would be like shutting down a major organ in the human body and hoping for the best. This beast is just too big for chance and one government entity to handle. Josh Marshall spells it out right there: This is not FDIC territory. So I wonder, with all sorts of businesses intertwined in the Citi quasi-oligopoly, what nationalization on this scale would look like.

If not one federal agency is capable of assuming all of their roles, then why not many federal entities assuming receivership of Citi's interests, should the laws allow. Perhaps another option, especially in the case of Citi-the-insurer, would be to hand that company interest to individual states as each state licenses a company to perform insurance business respectively.

Anyone here have knowledge of laws and other federal departments that could manage this?

[tclambert]

25. But according to Pandit's memo . . .

Citi is profitable, kinda, sorta, if you look at a narrow enough timeframe and turn a little sideways, while squinting one eye.

[ozymandius]

26. He must be following Cramer's advice.

Lie. Either outright or by omission. Whatever the choice, just lie.

[amandabeech]

82. Quarterly reports come out in mid-April.

There will be a tremendous amount of obfuscation, of course, but anyone familiar with the usual language that goes with obfuscation will be forewarned.

Ken Lewis's statement that Bank of America won't need any more government money may be good news, but we won't know if it is true until we find out where the AIG pass through tax dollars are going.

The recent announcement that the SEC may be forced by law to suspend mark to market will also help the banks' PR machines, if not actual solvency.

[Kip Humphrey]

28. Too big to fail??? Citi has already failed. Solution: break it up after the model of AT&T.

In fact, ANY company that is too big to fail is too big to exist. Break them up into entities that are small enough to fail and small enough to prosper and grow without having to resort to gobbling up competitors.

[Ghost Dog]

56. That's certainly my point of view: A modernised version of Real Socialism:

Let small and medium-sized private business do its (innovative, if possible) thing, providing most employment and commonwealth in any economy; but take over, break up and either re-privatise corporations that are too big, tending towards the monopolistic, or retain under public control.

And, impose new accounting rules based on the following principle: The greatest common good is the sustainable long-term health of the Terrestrial Biosphere: All else must be subordinate to this.

[Demeter]

34. Break Up Citi Into Manageably-Sized Pieces

and see how many of those go under.

[Tansy_Gold]

127. I think that's a reasonable risk to take.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it seems Citi is rather like AIG, and probably like a lot of the other TBTF entities, in that it has viable operations and then it has toxic ones. If they're broken apart, the viable remnants should be able to survive on their own. The others, oh well.

A threat of allowing them to fail, however, might flush out some cockroaches, and that could be a good thing. We might find out who the counterparties to some of these opaque deals are, and learn some of the details.

We might.



Tansy Gold

[radfringe]

13. JPMorgan joins Citi in reporting profitability

JPMorgan joins Citi in reporting profitability
U.S., Canadian finance stocks extend the week's advance, although Dow ends on a cautious note
The Star - Toronto Canada
Mar 12, 2009 04:30 AM
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/600774

The Toronto stock market surged for a second day in another broad advance led by beaten-down Canadian banks and insurance companies.

New York traders turned cautious after the previous session's furious buying which had been prompted by news that Citigroup Inc. earned an operating profit in the first two months of the year.

Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index closed up 130.61 points to 8,011.02, after a 12 per cent surge in financials pushed the benchmark index up 313 points on Tuesday, the market's best day so far this year.

The TSX Venture Exchange ticked 5.35 points higher to 823.9.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.06 of a cent to 77.75 cents (U.S.).

New York's Dow Jones industrial average edged up 3.91 points to 6,930.40 after charging ahead 379 points the day before.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. joined Citigroup Inc. in saying it was profitable in January and February, bolstering speculation that the worst of the banking crisis may be over.

JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by market value, climbed 4.6 per cent and Citigroup added 6.2 per cent

========

something doesn't pass the smell test...

[ozymandius]

15. Well, options do expire next week on a Triple Witching day.

Has J.P. Morgan announced this news with an official SEC filing?

If I were CEO of a big bank, I would want to ratchet up any good news - whether it's true or not.

[amandabeech]

83. They're probably arguing with the SEC about it as we write.

If they haven't already filed an 8-K, which I think would be the form used.

[ozymandius]

16. Libor’s Creep Shows Credit Markets at Risk of Seizure

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in dollars is rising as the global recession deepens and central bank efforts to prop up the financial system fail to prevent a growing number of banks from requiring government bailouts.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks say they charge each other for three-month loans stayed at 1.33 percent today, near the highest level since Jan. 8 and up from this year’s low of 1.08 percent on Jan. 14, the British Bankers’ Association said. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of bank reluctance to lend, widened to the most since Jan. 9.

Short-term borrowing costs are increasing as banks hoard cash and governments struggle to thaw credit markets after finance companies reported almost $1.2 trillion of writedowns and losses since the start of 2007. Banco Popolare SC yesterday became Italy’s first lender to seek state aid. Lloyds Banking Group Plc, the U.K.’s largest mortgage provider, ceded control to the government March 7. U.S. regulators seized 17 failing banks so far this year.

.....

The stress is reflected in the so-called Libor-OIS spread, which measures the gap between three-month Libor in dollars and the overnight index-swap rate, or what traders expect the Federal Reserve’s target rate for overnight loans between banks to average during the term of the contract.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0JxdKUPIyk4&refer=exclusive

[amandabeech]

84. Might this be related to the nasty Eastern European crisis discussed above? n/t

[ozymandius]

19. Greenspan’s Denial (Or: Why no one should give a shit about what he says anymore)

Since I’ve been critical of the unstable monetary policy of Greenspan, Bernanke and the Fed for many years, I can’t help myself but to respond to Greenspan’s editorial today in the Wall St Journal, where he pleads ‘not guilty’ for causing the housing bubble. His main thesis being that since he only controlled the fed funds rate, he had little influence on longer term rates which are directly correlated to mortgage rates and it was the “decline in long term interest rates across a wide spectrum of countries” that was the “most likely major cause of…the global housing price bubble.” He specifically points out ‘global’ to further distance himself from what the Fed specifically did.

.....

The point being is that the seeds of the bubble were planted way before the extremes in ’06 and ’07 and longer term rates remained contained due to the ‘savings glut’ that the US consumer helped to put in the hands of overseas investors through more borrowing and spending who in turn parked it back in the US. The global search for yield began with artificially low short term rates induced by the Fed and resulted in a massive misallocation of capital through more and more risk and higher and higher leverage that of course blew up and foreign banks and consumers couldn’t help themselves either as trade and credit became more globalized. With credit (booze) free flowing, many abused it and did stupid things but it was Greenspan and Co that brought the excess credit (booze) to the party.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/greenspans-denial/

Here's the source column, should you give a shit.

[radfringe]

21. Jim Cramer Shorting Stocks, Manipulating Markets, Saying The SEC Doesn't Understand

Jim Cramer Shorting Stocks, Manipulating Markets, Saying The SEC Doesn't Understand
Huffpost - Julie Satow - March 11, 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/11/jim-cramer-shorting-stock_n_173824.html

In light of the current economic crisis, and with the hullabaloo ignited recently by Jon Stewart over the accuracy of CNBC's reporting, we thought it might be useful to revisit this shocking 2006 interview Jim Cramer gave to TheStreet.com's Aaron Task.

In it, the host of Mad Money says he regularly manipulated the market when he ran his hedge fund. He calls it "a fun game, and it's a lucrative game." He suggests all hedge fund managers do the same. "No one else in the world would ever admit that, but I could care. I am not going to say it on TV," he quips in the video.

He also calls Wall Street Journal reporters "bozos" and says behaving illegally is okay because the SEC doesn't understand it anyway.


-----snip--------

-On manipulating the market: "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund, and I was positioned short, meaning I needed it down, I would create a level of activity before hand that could drive the futures,"

-On falsely creating the impression a stock is down (what he calls "fomenting"): "You can't foment. That's a violation... But you do it anyway because the SEC doesn't understand it." He adds, "When you have six days and your company may be in doubt because you are down, I think it is really important to foment."

-On the truth: "What's important when you are in that hedge fund mode is to not be doing anything that is remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view - it is important to create a new truth to develop a fiction," Cramer advises. "You can't take any chances."

[ozymandius]

23. I commend this slightly wonkish analysis on Citi's 'memo' to your attention.

This is excerpted from a lengthy post at Naked Capitalism

---

Now let us turn to Citi. Recall what transpired, per the Wall Street Journal:

Citigroup Inc. was profitable in the first two months of 2009 and is having its best quarter in a year and a half, Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said in an internal memo aimed at boosting employee and investor confidence in his struggling bank.

Yves here. This is simply stunning. The Journal says up front a supposed internal memo was in fact intended to reassure investors. In other words, Journal says the information was expected to be distributed broadly, as it was. And let's go back to see the detail:

The bank posted revenues -- excluding asset write-downs -- of $19 billion in January and February, Mr. Pandit said in the memo. For the full quarter, earnings before taxes and set-asides for problem loans are $8.3 billion, assuming revenues fill in at last year's rate and expenses are in line with the fourth quarter, the CEO said. Mr. Pandit warned, however, that market volatility in March could alter the results.

Let us further consider the context. The night before the Journal had a front page story which was none too favorable to the struggling bank:

Barely a week after the third rescue of Citigroup Inc., U.S. officials are examining what fresh steps they might need to take to stabilize the bank if its problems mount, according to people familiar with the matter.

Federal officials describe the discussions, which are wide-ranging and preliminary, as "contingency planning." Regulators are trying to ensure that they are prepared if Citigroup takes a sudden turn for the worse, which they aren't expecting, these people say.

So the very next day, Citi decides to tell the world they have it wrong, things are really on the mend.

Now consider: statements by public companies about their financial condition, operations, and results are not held to a mere standard of accuracy (as in narrowly true) but "not misleading". The critical language is:

It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly, by the use of any means or instrumentality of interstate commerce, or of the mails or of any facility of any national securities exchange....To make any untrue statement of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact necessary in order to make the statements made, in the light of the circumstances under which they were made, not misleading

Now the beauty of this little leak is that it covered a two month period, which means it cannot be compared directly with the quarterly results. It does not include writedowns (which I would argue makes it misleading). As the Financial Times' Lex noted:

But investors should not lose their heads. The headline-grabbing revenue number, of course, does not include costs or writedowns. Besides, Citi exceeded $20bn in adjusted revenues for eight quarters up until the end of September. Even in the nightmare final quarter of last year, revenues excluding writedowns were still a respectable $13.4bn. So Citi having a bumper top line is nothing to get excited about. That “profitable” remains unquantified gives no comfort as to what extent writedowns have eaten into that haul. That is the problem. In volatile markets, flow businesses such as foreign exchange or cash equities will always do well.

And Tyler Durden noted there could have been double counting in connection with the partial sale of Smith Barney.

Dunno about you, but this looks to me like a bald faced attempt to manipulate the stock price, and it certainly worked.

[TheWatcher]

29. Morning Futures Indicate A Memo Does Not A Market Make

Dow Futures -55.

Quick, someone leak another Memo!

The news once again this morning is absolutely horrible, and we haven't even gotten to the massaged, cooked Unemployment Numbers and Retail Sales yet.

More News of Mass Layoffs (National Semiconductor)

Freddie Mac news

China Output Swan Dives to Record Low

Japan Returns to Pre-Memo Reality, along with the rest of the World Markets.

German Industrial Production m/m: -7.5%, Expect: -3.3% , Prior: -3.9%

And even though that stupid Memo is going to turn out to be one of the most notorious things of Legend to occur in this Economic Crisis, it appears that we now have somewhat confirmation that it was indeed a planned event, with a clear short term agenda in mind:

Citigroup Executives Score $2.2 Million Betting on Own Stock


By David Scheer

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Four Citigroup Inc. executives who bought the bank’s stock last week have already generated a $2.2 million paper profit, regulatory filings show.

The executives, including director Roberto Hernandez, benefited as the company’s stock climbed 47 percent since March 10, when Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said in a memo that the bank is having the best quarter since 2007. Their buying spree was the first by bank insiders since Jan. 14, filings show.

“You’re supposed to buy when everyone else is selling,” said Bruce Foerster, a former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. managing director who now runs South Beach Capital Markets in Miami. Banks have internal systems to monitor executive trades and prevent abuses, he said.

Pandit wrote in the internal memo that the company was profitable in January and February, leaving him “encouraged with the strength of our business so far in 2009.” The comments triggered Citigroup’s biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 24, spurring global markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab3VmhTulLyc&refer=home

Gee, I wonder if the SEC will bother to investigate THIS.



Meanwhile, back in Reality:

45 percent of world's wealth destroyed: Blackstone CEO
Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:42pm EDT


By Megan Davies and Walden Siew

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private equity company Blackstone Group LP (BX.N) CEO Stephen Schwarzman said on Tuesday that up to 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed by the global credit crisis.

"Between 40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than a year and a half," Schwarzman told an audience at the Japan Society. "This is absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime."

But the U.S. government is committed to the preservation of financial institutions, he said, and will do whatever it takes to restart the economy.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to unfreeze credit markets through a new program that will combine public and private capital in a fund that would buy bank toxic assets of up to $1 trillion. (Oh Don't Worry, it will all be retracted a few days from now when they discover "The Costs Were Too High".)

"In all likelihood, that will have the private sector buy troubled assets to clean the banks out in terms of providing leverage ... so that we can get more money back into the banking system," Schwarzman said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE52966Z20090310

Maybe Vik could write a Memo on behalf of the ENTIRE PLANET.

AND for those who may have missed this last night, The G20 is meeting this week for their usual Stand-Up Comedy Act regarding the World Economy. If it goes like previous meetings have gone, it should look something like this:



Just replace Stammerin' Hank's face with Grinning, Goofy Geithner, and you get the picture.

[Demeter]

33. Or, 45% of a Dream Fantasy Denied

Paper assets.

[TheWatcher]

35. Don't worry though, In The Future, Where We're Going We Won't Need Money Or Assets.

Only Memo's saying that we are profitable and everything is OK. :)

[nc4bo]

44. I'm an economic idjit and I just said the same thing.

It's all bullsiht and these greedy pigs want us to believe that is some natural disaster or some freak occurrence no one had any control over or could never see coming.

Just pure, unadulterated BS proven by how "we" continue to reward, coddle, ignore and make excuses for the situation we find ourselves in.

:puke:

[TheWatcher]

47. They Create the Crisis, And then Ride In As Your "Saviors" With their "Solutions"

"Just listen to us and do as we say and we'll turn the Economy back on."

Mafia Rule. We're What's For Dinner.

[nc4bo]

39. That last one - the Schwartzman quote where he said

"Between 40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than a year and a half," Schwarzman told an audience at the Japan Society. "This is absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime."

Unlike myself, these people are degreed and pedigreed in this economic stuff and sometimes I can't believe what comes out of their mouths.

I want to ask Mr. Schwarzman a question and that would be: Did that wealth really exist in the first place? and then one more: How can you lose what never actually existed?

The world's financial engines moved OUT OF reality and INTO a fantasy. Why is anyone shocked and horrified that it's all crumbling down? :wtf:

[Tansy_Gold]

49. You are absolutely correct, my friend.

I have no degree in economics either, in fact I have never taken even Econ 101.

But I have a brain and I use it -- and usin' my brain has been tellin' me for YEARS that this is all play money.


I bought a house in 1988 for $90,000. I sold it in 2006 for $340,000. I put that $340,000 into another house. The house I sold is now on the market -- and unsold for 2 years -- at $190,000, and properties similar to the one I have now are selling (occasionally) for about $225,000. SOME would say I've "lost" $115,000!!!! Others would say I've "earned" $35,000!!!! But it's all on paper, and all that matters is I'm living in a place that suits me.

It's just like that London AIG office that "lost" $500,000,000,000 on CDSes. THEY NEVER HAD IT TO LOSE, and neither did the outfits who "insured" it. Let AIG welch on its bets. Let the others turn around and welch on theirs. They were only betting against themselves/each other anyway.

Welcome to the bittersweet world of knowing what's goin' on, nc4bo. :hi:


Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

51. But is it all 'play money'?

Look what happened in the stock market in the past year. Let's say there was a very wealthy person who had a billion in the market at it's highest point (October 2007). If that person withdraw that billion in Oct 2007, and put that amount in Treasury Bills, that person would still have a billion preserved.

For every seller, there is a buyer.

The buyer of that billion decided to remain in the market, and by October 2008, lost nearly 50%.

But that original seller, still has a billion in Treasury Bills.

Who was that original seller? Who has that wealth? Where is that wealth now? Is it still in Treasury Bills? Is it in gold? We need to follow the money trail.

[Tansy_Gold]

62. It's a transfer of wealth

If you look at the whole mortgage thing, there were people who made out like bandits (which they were) and they probably still have the actual wealth, or things that they bought with it: cars, homes, etc.

the developers who went into the west valley of Phoenix and bought up thousands upon thousands of acres of desert in the 1980s eventually sold it for many times that amount in the early 2000s. Homeowners borrowed money from banks and gave that money to the developers -- who in turn paid the construction workers and the building materials suppliers. But as the profits mounted and trickled up, that wealth was sucked out of the working/middle class.

Once the wealth was created on paper, the trick was to convert it into "real" wealth and leave someone holding the bag filled with shredded newspaper. The .01%ers did that very well. think of the people who are losing their homes to foreclosure. Many of them may have poured their life savings into those homes, and they walk away with nothing. SOMEONE has that real wealth. Maybe not hte bank that's left with the mortgage or the investor who bought ABSes or MBSes. But the hedge fund managers in their eight-figure homes????

Then those who actually worried that something might happen to their paper wealth decided to insure it, with AIG. The "risk" was so small that the cost of insurance wasn't much, and the risk was so small that AIG didn't reinsure it. so the investor makes out if the MBS gains in value, and if it doesn't, he hands it off to AIG and says show me the money. heads they win, tails we lose.

And we lost big, because AIG, rather than renege on its own bet, came crawling to the feds and said HELP! and the feds handed over our dough.

WE THE PEOPLE are left with nothing, and we were the ones who created the wealth. It's been a class war all along, and it's been perpetrated by "them," not "us."


TG

[antigop]

64. Warren Buffett: "..but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/business/yourmoney/26every.html
In Class Warfare, Guess Which Class is Winning

“There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”

[DemReadingDU]

66. Exactly. SOMEONE has that real wealth.

The thing is, they are not done transferring our wealth to them. They still want the remains of our 401(K)s, our IRAs, our pensions, our savings accounts, and social security. They won't be finished until they have it all, and we have nothing.

Whoever is stealing our wealth from us, the working/middle class, that's who we need to go after with pitchforks.

[Loge23]

70. Forced privitization of Social Security

We all remember the last administration's big ploy to privitize Social Security.
When this blatant attempt at a money-grab was firmly aborted, they bled us anyway.
The tremendous destruction of wealth - used as a red herring by the financial elitists to describe the great paper poof (alluded to on this thread)- is very real to the millions and millions of working people who depended on their 401k's and IRA's for retirement. Compounding this is the already-in-progress transformation of the baby-boomer generation into their retirement years (that would be me).
There's really nothing that can be done about it either. They won this round. Only in the everlasting promise of universal karma can we ever gain any sense of recourse. Good luck with all that.

[AnneD]

93. OK...now I am feeling guilty.....

Sort of. I rolled my retirement into an stock IRA at Smith Barney when I let Texas. I got caught in the Dot.Com and lost 1/4th. I held on and juggled some things around. I moved back to Texas so I wanted to buy back my time. When I pulled out the market was between 11.5 to 12.3. I made back my loss plus. I tried to roll it over and it has been in the computer ether (long weird story). By having it out of the market I have retained the monetary value so when it transfers-it will be say 12.1 instead of the current values of 6-7. I preserved my capital during 2 of the last 3 downturns.

I don't like the get rich quick, and I realize it is buyer beware in any market, but I expect the market to be regulated as our food is (although we need stricter regulation there too). I want real milk-not 'milk composed of melanin water based paint and other ingredients'. I want to know the real ingredients. And when I select a stock-I want true books, information fair trading rules. If the playing field is level then take some money and use your brain an see if you can do better than your bank yield.

In any of that statement do I say that I think 401's are a good vehicle to prepare for retirement. I wouldn't take my SS check and play the Casino's in Vegas-and this is what the market is. But if you play responsibly with spare money and the field is level...why not take advantage of real gains.

[DemReadingDU]

94. Lucky you

We were kinda lucky too. Pulled everything out of stocks last June, and the money put into CDs, Treasury Bills, a bit of cash in 'Sealy Bank', and stockpiling food.

I am not a gambling person per nature. Rarely buy lotto tickets or even bingo. I truly consider the stock market as another form of gambling. At this time in my life, I don't foresee that I will every get into the stock market again.

[AnneD]

95. I fully credit my reading DU

to confirm what I suspected about the crookedness-thus my departure.

If done well and on a fair level field-the market is like playing the black jack table. The odds are less in favour of the house and if you do your leg work the odds get even better for you. But there is always a random element.

Tylenol is a decent fever reducer and the company is good, but who could have predicted someone comitting murder by poisoning and almost killing Tylenol in the process. That is the random element of luck that you cannot control.

[Ghost Dog]

99. With you there

:thumbsup:

[Ghost Dog]

59. Wealth:

wealth
From: The Concise Oxford Dictionary of English Etymology | Date: 1996 | Author: T. F. HOAD | © The Concise Oxford Dictionary of English Etymology 1996, originally published by Oxford University Press 1996.

A. †well-being XIII; welfare of a community XIV;

B. worldly goods, riches XIII. ME. welþe, f. WELL3 or WEAL1, after health; see -TH1.
Hence wealthy (-Y1) XIV.

http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1O27-wealth.html

Wealth \Wealth\, n.

1. Weal; welfare; prosperity; good. (Obs.)

``Let no man seek his own, but every man another's wealth.'' --1 Cor. x. 24.

2. Large possessions; a comparative abundance of things which are objects of human desire; esp., abundance of worldly estate; affluence; opulence; riches.

http://www.dictionary.net/wealth

In modern social thought, the economic concept of wealth—any Property that has a marketable value or an exchangeable value—has normally been treated as an important and fundamental dimension of social or economic inequality, and has often been discussed or employed by left-wing critics of capitalism or the existing social order. For Marxists, private concentrations of wealth-holding have been part and parcel of the process of bourgeois class control of the means of production, distribution and exchange, and Marxists have generally viewed the question of wealth-holding in the context of the class ownership of productive capital, downplaying other forms of wealth-holding. Non-Marxist radicals like R. H. Tawney (1880-1962) and Anthony Crosland (1918-77) have placed greater stress on the role of wealth-holding, especially significant concentrations of inherited wealth, in maintaining political and social inequality in modern capitalist societies. A third stream represented by social scientists like Thorstein Veblen (1857–1929), Joseph Schumpeter (1882–1950) and C. Wright Mills (1916–62) have examined the social category of wealthy persons, particulary those with substantial inherited wealth. Veblen was the first to highlight the vulgar display of ‘conspicuous consumption’ among the wealthy; Schumpeter examined the allegedly deleterious effects of inherited wealth on entrepreneurial ... log in or subscribe to read full text

http://www.blackwellreference.com/public/tocnode?id=g9780631221647_chunk_g978063122164726_ss1-3

[nc4bo]

77. Paper and air vs. physical possessions. So much of these worldly goods would never existed

in the first place if it weren't for the virtual reality. So much of it was just ink on some paper or some data filed on a hard drive.

Like someone mentioned upthread, some may have had actual cash/physical possessions but then they converted these physical things into virtual cash/possessions (stockmarket/other investments). Once it's virtual than it's now vulnerable to the virtual rules (or in this case, virtual non-rules).

Some even purchased actual physical possessions with the virtual cash like our friend Madoff - and doesn't feel he should give it back even though these things would have never existed without them being virtually created.

It seems in the virtual world, anything does and can go on without worrying about the limitations of any reality.

It's the risk any one takes when they wheel and deal to make more.

These banks, other financial institutions and greedy players weren't (and still aren't) limited by the value of anything real anymore and any one caught up in the fantasy land not only lost their imaginary wealth but also any real wealth they may have originally possessed.

If you or I dared to play this game the way these companies and CEO's, etc. have played it, we would be stripped bare and punished and more than likely ruined in reputation and blackballed from mainstream society for the rest of our lives.

[Mojorabbit]

75. Some of it did

My 82 yo MIL had almost a million after she and her husband scrimped and saved all their lives plus her life insurance benefits from when FIL passed away. She has lost 2/3 of it as her broker had her in equities. I am pissed that they did not move her into a safer place when the market started to tank. It is a real loss to her and if she needs that money for specialized medical care later it is gone.

[nc4bo]

79. I understand that and believe me when I say that I am extremely sympathetic

to people in these situations BUT the bottom line is, it's the risk we take. The amount of risk I guess depends on each person's situation.

It's still a risk and I think alot of people don't really understand that fact and are willing trust those who have the potential to do much harm.

[UpInArms]

30. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.929 Change +0.293 (+0.38%)

A Drop In Retail Sales Could Contradict Bearish Dollar Technical Outlook

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/A_Drop_In_Retail_Sales_1236837370496.html

U.S. advance retail sales are expected to fall by 0.5% after January’s unexpected 1.0% gain, as a weak labor market is expected to weigh on demand. The U.S. saw unemployment rise to 8.1% during the month as the economy lost another 651,000 jobs. Last month’s saw clothing and electronics sales rise by 1.6% and 2.6% respectively, as retailers slashed prices.



Fundamental Outlook

U.S. advance retail sales are expected to fall by 0.5% after January’s unexpected 1.0% gain, as a weak labor market is expected to weigh on demand. The U.S. saw unemployment rise to 8.1% during the month as the economy lost another 651,000 jobs. Last month’s saw clothing and electronics sales rise by 1.6% and 2.6% respectively, as retailers slashed prices. Additionally, the stabilization of gasoline prices saw sales at the pump increase by 2.6%. The impact of these factors most likely lessened in February and components like home building materials and automobile purchases are expected to have remained weak. Therefore, we could see a larger than expected decline in consumer consumption which could reignite risk aversion and lend dollar support. However, cash strapped consumers could have rushed to acquire their tax rebates which could have a positive impact on demand and lead to a consecutive month of improves retail sales. The increase in domestic demand would add to recent risk appetite and could lead to the greenback trading heavy. This would validate the bearish dollar technical outlook which is calling for a test of 1.33 for the EUR/USD.

...more...

Dollar Rally Stalls As Traders Question Safety In Deepening Recession

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar_Rally_Stalls_As_Traders_1236815993136.html

Are US Treasuries still the risk-free assets that they were 10 years ago? This is a question that can redefine the dollar’s trend for weeks or months. It seems the safe haven status that has supported the world’s most liquid currency for nearly eight months now is starting to meet resistance.



The Economy And The Credit Market



Are US Treasuries still the risk-free assets that they were 10 years ago? This is a question that can redefine the dollar’s trend for weeks or months. It seems the safe haven status that has supported the world’s most liquid currency for nearly eight months now is starting to meet resistance. Growth forecasts for the United States continue to diminish as policy efforts fall short of a consumer and credit-led plunge in economic activity. In contrast, the FX market’s typical high yielders are actually finding economic projections that point to a quick recovery - making these currencies attractive for both their sound fundamentals and comparatively high return. However, sentiment following growth projections and sentiment based on liquidity come under two very different states of fear and risk. The US has the deepest markets in the world; but without the pressure of an accelerating global recession and/or the build of another financial crisis, the American economy will be exposed to its struggling policy efforts and the economic trend towards a possible depression.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

80. Dollar, euro soar vs Swiss franc as SNB intervenes

NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar and euro jumped against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank said it was intervening in the foreign exchange market as it faced the growing risk of deflation.

The Swiss central bank said it was implementing its decision to buy foreign currencies. The SNB also cut interest rates on Thursday by a quarter percentage point to a historic low, offering three-, six- and 12-month funds at 0.05 percent.

The SNB, which last intervened in August 1995, further said it will buy not only foreign currencies but bonds as well. Switzerland is facing its worst recession in over three decades.

...

In late afternoon New York trading, the dollar rose 2.96 percent to 1.1876 francs <CHF=>, on track for its biggest one-day gain since August 1995, at current prices. It rose as high as 1.1965 francs, a three-month high, according to Reuters data.

The Swiss franc is one of the world's most traded currencies, at times prized as a safe haven for investors.

The euro climbed to 1.5302 Swiss francs, the highest since December. It last traded at 1.5234 <EURCHF=>, up 2.9 percent, the euro's best day ever against the Swiss currency.

SNB's move to zero rates and quantitative easing was expected, traders said, but the immediate move to intervene was a surprise.

Bank of New York-Mellon senior currency strategist Michael Woolfolk said "the way this was communicated was intended at maximizing its shock value." He said there were no hints from SNB officials ahead of time that intervention would be immediate.

"They changed their economic outlook, they not only lowered interest rates to effectively zero but also announced quantitative easing and currency intervention. This was the full monty," Woolfolk said.

...

Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, said the SNB intervention should ease pressure on Poland and Hungary, two European emerging market countries seriously hit by the global credit crisis.

These two countries had taken advantage of ultra-low Swiss interest rates, borrowing heavily in Swiss francs and investing in riskier assets.

...

The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2871 <EUR=>. The euro zone single currency was also pressured by comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet that euro zone interest rates could be cut further.

The ECB cut its benchmark rate to a record low 1.5 percent last week and economists expect it to cut to 1.0 percent, most likely in April.

Sterling rose 0.1 percent to $1.3867 <GBP=>.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1237892420090312?rpc=44&sp=true
____

[Ghost Dog]

86. SNB Cuts Rate, Intervenes to Weaken Swiss Currency

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Swiss central bank cut its interest rate close to zero and started buying foreign currencies to stem the franc’s appreciation as the recession sharpens and deflation looms.

The franc plunged the most against the euro since the single currency was introduced in 1999 after the Swiss National Bank in Zurich lowered its main lending rate to 0.25 percent from 0.5 percent. The SNB also said it would buy corporate bonds as well as currencies in its first solo intervention in foreign exchange markets since 1992.

...

“This is a pre-emptive strike,” said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds Banking Group Plc in London. “ They’re not holding back. They went a step further than markets expected.”

...

Switzerland’s economy will shrink between 2.5 percent and 3 percent this year, the SNB forecast today. Prices will decline by about 0.5 percent this year and inflation will be “very close to zero” in 2010 and 2011, it said.

‘Exceptional Measures’

“The Swiss economy is being hit hard,” said the central bank, which has now cut its main rate by 250 basis points since early October. “With these exceptional measures, the SNB is helping to cushion the effects of the economic crisis, with the aim of limiting the risk of deflation.”

Other central banks have already started implementing new policy tools after exhausting conventional measures. The Bank of England is printing money to buy government bonds in a bid to ward off deflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve is buying assets and the Bank of Japan earlier this month bought corporate bonds from lenders for the first time.

The SNB’s bond purchases may include so-called covered bonds, securities that are backed by loans and bank assets. Switzerland loosened capital rules for issuers of covered bond last month, which may open up about 20 billion francs in lending this year. UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG plan to raise several billion francs by selling such bonds to smaller Swiss banks, NZZ am Sonntag reported March 8. In December, UBS sold 2 billion francs of bonds backed by Swiss mortgages.

With its bond purchases, the SNB aims “to bring about a relaxation on the capital markets” today’s statement said.

Franc Gains

“The effect of our interest rate cuts was neutralized by the permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc,” SNB President Jean-Pierre Roth said in an interview with SF Swiss television following today’s decision. “We decided to block a further appreciation of the Swiss franc vis-a-vis the euro. These measures are necessary for our rate cuts to have effect.”

The Swiss currency has gained about 8 percent in the past six months against the euro, adding to companies’ pains by making their products less competitive in the 16-nation euro region, which accounts for more than half of Swiss exports.

...

Price pressures have evaporated in recent months after the cost of oil dropped around 70 percent from its July record, the franc surged and domestic demand weakened. Swiss leading indicators dropped to a record low last month as manufacturing shrank at the fastest pace since at least 1995. Unemployment climbed to the highest in more than two years.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aqCPVMVY_cZw&refer=europe

[Ghost Dog]

88. ECB Approaches Zero Rates by Stealth With New Weapon

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s new weapon to battle the recession is taking him closer than it seems to zero interest rates.

Trichet is allowing the ECB’s deposit rate, which lenders earn on overnight deposits with the central bank, to usurp the benchmark refinancing rate and become the main driver of short- term borrowing costs. At just 0.5 percent, the deposit rate matches the Bank of England’s key setting and is only a step away from the zero-to-0.25-percent range the Federal Reserve uses.

That is pushing interest rates for banks down, helping Trichet answer critics who accuse him of not doing enough as the euro-region economy sinks into its deepest recession since World War II. The deposit rate is “very, very low,” Trichet said three times in an hour at a press conference on March 5.

He “is implicitly admitting that the deposit rate has now become the key barometer of the ECB’s policy,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis in Amsterdam. “The ECB has become more and more comfortable in pointing that out, not least because it’s been accused of keeping interest rates too high.”

The euro overnight index average, or Eonia, fell to 0.85 percent yesterday after the ECB’s latest rate cuts took effect -- about 0.7 percentage point below the 1.5 percent benchmark rate. Overnight deposits dropped to 56.3 billion euros, the lowest amount since Oct. 8.

Unlimited Cash

The ECB’s decision to offer banks unlimited amounts of cash, announced on Oct. 8, has culminated in the deposit rate setting the new de facto cost of short-term money. The measure removed the need for banks to borrow in the money market to meet their reserve requirements.

...

Unlimited cash “results in refinancing costs for banks well below the current benchmark interest rate,” ECB council member Axel Weber said on March 5. “We expect banks to pass this on to consumers and companies to stimulate the economy.”

...

The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, that banks say they charge each other for six-month loans dropped to a record low of 1.79 percent today. Market rates of the same maturity traded at 2.07 percent in the U.K. and 1.90 percent in the U.S.

Trichet hasn’t ruled out further rate cuts. The ECB has “not decided ex-ante that the present level was the lowest,” he said during a press conference in Vienna today. Still, “we are at very low rates.”

...

Some ECB officials are concerned that too-low market rates will become counterproductive because they will sap banks’ returns and give them less incentive to trade with each other. That would undermine the ECB’s aim to revive interbank lending through its unlimited liquidity operations.

“If we had excessively low interest rates, why would banks start lending to each other?” ECB council member Yves Mersch asked March 10. “It would be much safer to put their excessive funds into the central bank rather than engage in the interbanking market.”

...

“With the extension of providing unlimited liquidity, the ECB committed to keep the overnight rate very low for the foreseeable future,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief euro-area economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London.

That is allowing Trichet to argue “that the ECB does not have such a different monetary-policy stance from the Fed and Bank of England,” said Gilles Moec, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London.

He is “driving home the point that the ECB is doing much more than people think.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a2SGLkQo2Hbs&refer=europe

[amandabeech]

90. I'm not sure that, all around, I'd consider a rising LIBOR rate to be a good thing.

A lot here on the board today discusses the Eastern European mess. My guess is that LIBOR reflects the nervousness, plus the uneasiness here over the AIG bailout.

If EE defaults and the US taxpayer refuses to put more money into AIG to the extent that the administration must stop or curtail, then LIBOR will go through the roof. That would be extremely distressing news.

[UpInArms]

32. Russia's Putin says Ukraine on verge of bankruptcy

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLC12729020090312

MOSCOW, March 12 (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Thursday said Ukraine was on the verge of bankruptcy but promised Moscow would not push its ex-Soviet neighbour over the edge with high gas bills, local news agencies reported.

The global crisis has battered Ukraine's economy, with industrial output down more than 30 percent year-on-year, GDP seen shrinking six percent in 2009 and its currency losing 50 percent of its value against the dollar at one point last year.

"They (Ukraine) are on the verge of bankruptcy and as you well know you should not finish off your partners," Putin said during a visit to a mine in the Siberian town of Novokuznetsk, state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been strained since Western-leaning leaders overcame pro-Moscow rivals in Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution.

During his second term as president, Putin developed a personal rivalry with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko who spearheaded efforts to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence by joining the NATO military alliance.

...more...

[TheWatcher]

37. This has been the Elephant In The Room that no one wants to talk about.

If Eastern Europe Collapses is COULD take the whole of Europe with it.

This is a very scary situation.

[DemReadingDU]

52. More about Eastern Europe in the market wrap-up

I posted excerpts above, but here is the direct link

3/4/09 "Da Bulls versus Da Bears... Daaaaa Bears" by Chris Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2009/0304.html

[MattSh]

50. Well, that's not exactly news here...

Ukraine's been on the verge of bankruptcy for months now, caused by falling demand for steel and chemicals. Putin and his gas has little to do with it now, with spring coming.

But what's really sinking things here is the absolute political corruption and the ability of the major political factions to agree on anything except how to rob the country blind. Mr. 4% approval (Yushchenko) and Ms Tymoshenko are always stabbing each other in the back whenever they're not shooting themselves in the foot, or somewhere else...

And the article makes it sound like NATO has an interest in Ukraine membership. Even NATO doesn't want to associate themselves with this circus.

[Demeter]

36. Stephen Colbert Goes All Over Ayn Rand (Tansy, Have You Seen This?)

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/221335/march-11-2009/the-word---rand-illusion

[AnneD]

98. Rand gets the much deserved.....

skewering-at last.

It was a poorly written book lacking fact, substance, or artistic merit. Gone with the Wind as written by a book keeper.

[bread_and_roses]

38. whoa! anyone read this? (attributed to) Jimmy Cayne on Tim Geithner

from Alternet:

Increasingly, banking bosses are sounding like mob underbosses. Here’s a quote attributed to Jimmy Cayne, former chief of Bear Stearns about Tim Geithner, who engineered the sale of his bank to JP Morgan at a sizable loss:

The audacity of that prick in front of the American people announcing he was deciding whether or not a firm of this stature and this whatever was good enough to get a loan. ... This guy thinks he's got a big dick. He's got nothing, except maybe a boyfriend. ... Who the fuck asked you? You're not an elected officer. You're a clerk. Believe me, you're a clerk. I want to open up on this fucker, that's all I can tell you.

http://www.alternet.org/workplace/130957/the_financial_crisis_pushes_europe_to_the_brink_of_disaster/?page=1

(author is someone named Danny Schechter - never heard of him myself, and the quote is "attributed" rather than sourced, but I couldn't resist posting it for your amusement and the raw, "All the Kings Men" flavor. If the day comes when we make a movie about all this, I'll bet some variant of that line appears.

[Dr.Phool]

40. Danny Schechter is a well known investigative journalist and film maker.

He's also a frequent guest on Democracy Now!

[SpiralHawk]

42. Danny Schecter - the New Dissector

He's been around a long time...good reporter.

[bread_and_roses]

46. Thanks! (and to SH too)

I only get to catch Democracy Now! about twice a week, if that, and never heard him.

[Robbien]

58. He is great, links to his sites

http://www.mediachannel.org/
http://www.newsdissector.org/blog/

[Demeter]

41. A High-Ranking Army Officer Quit Because He Said

something to the effect that he wasn't in the Army anymore, suddenly, he was working for the Mafia.

the BFEE is the WASP Mafia, and Pappy is Capo de Tutti Capos, until someone higher than he can be identified.

When Poppy and Darth Cheney die, the world will be a visibly brighter and cleaner place.

[bread_and_roses]

48. No quarell here, Sister!

All the way back to Prescott - for all I know even before - the BFEE has been a blight and a scourge. I loathed "Poppy" and "Babs" and have been aghast over these last years as their evil spawn's global destruction caused some to "rehabilitate" their image as "more moderate" and bearable.

[UpInArms]

55. can't we get them for treason?

and throw them under the prison?

[Demeter]

72. Pick Easier Stuff

If they were imprisoned for every crime committed, we'd have to clone and reclone.

[TheWatcher]

43. Unemployment 654K VS. 640K Expected. Last Week Conveniently Revised UPWARD by 6K.

Reality To Wall Street: "Hey Jackasses, Things Still Suck!"

Put THAT in your Memo.

On Edit: And The Futures LOVE It! From -42 to -6 in a matter of minutes.

You CANNOT make this stuff up.

Viva Financial Mafia!

Where Your Suffering is Our Salvation!

:rofl:

[Roland99]

53. S&P cuts GE's credit rating to AA+; says outlook stable (now with 50% more detail)

GE stock is actually up about $0.50/share in pre-open trading.


more detail now:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/GE-credit-rating-gets-cut/story.aspx?guid=%7B9BB2ACCB%2D2345%2D4EF6%2DAB19%2D115A2D96D08D%7D&dist=hplatest

[Festivito]

54. Debt: 03/10/2009 10,958,408,586,222.43 (UP 5,745,555,619.02) (Not much.)

(Mixed, mostly FICA side.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,662,656,840,626.19 + 4,295,751,745,596.24
UP 452,187,222.11 + UP 5,293,368,396.91

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,949,343 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,817.72.
A family of three owes $107,453.17. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 11,852,139,682.81.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,901,426,455.21.
The average for the last 28 days would be 8,465,814,059.15.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 34 reports in 49 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.54B$ per report, 0.42B$/day so far.
There were 109 reports in 161 days of FY2009 averaging 8.57B$ per report, 5.80B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,412 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.9 and 22.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/10/2009 10,958,408,586,222.43 BHO (UP 331,531,537,309.35 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 933,683,689,310.00 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********
02/26/2009 +048,048,940,708.92 ------------**********
02/27/2009 +000,306,718,307.89 ------------********
03/02/2009 +074,163,317,993.12 ------------********** Mon
03/03/2009 +000,498,419,440.82 ------------********
03/04/2009 +000,625,214,862.41 ------------********
03/05/2009 +006,943,273,604.61 ------------*********
03/06/2009 +000,851,040,035.06 ------------********
03/09/2009 -000,039,321,146.54 ---- Mon
03/10/2009 +000,452,187,222.11 ------------********

180,733,485,418.63 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,293,776,782,963.36 in last 173 days.
That's 1,294B$ in 173 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 127% of that highest year ever only in 173 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 173 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3777161&mesg_id=3777254

[Festivito]

96. Debt: 03/11/2009 10,951,099,637,335.63 (DOWN 7,308,948,886.80) (Mostly FICA.)

(Mostly FICA.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,662,844,615,842.74 + 4,288,255,021,492.89
UP 187,775,216.55 + DOWN 7,496,724,103.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,955,515 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,793.11.
A family of three owes $107,379.33. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 11,898,771,088.17.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,932,514,058.78.
The average for the last 28 days would be 8,499,122,205.84.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 35 reports in 50 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.39B$ per report, 0.34B$/day so far.
There were 110 reports in 162 days of FY2009 averaging 8.42B$ per report, 5.72B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,411 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.9 and 22.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/11/2009 10,951,099,637,335.63 BHO (UP 324,222,588,422.55 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 926,374,740,423.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********
02/26/2009 +048,048,940,708.92 ------------**********
02/27/2009 +000,306,718,307.89 ------------********
03/02/2009 +074,163,317,993.12 ------------********** Mon
03/03/2009 +000,498,419,440.82 ------------********
03/04/2009 +000,625,214,862.41 ------------********
03/05/2009 +006,943,273,604.61 ------------*********
03/06/2009 +000,851,040,035.06 ------------********
03/09/2009 -000,039,321,146.54 ---- Mon
03/10/2009 +000,452,187,222.11 ------------********
03/11/2009 +000,187,775,216.55 ------------********

180,743,133,240.75 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,286,467,834,076.56 in last 174 days.
That's 1,286B$ in 174 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 126% of that highest year ever only in 174 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 174 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3778955&mesg_id=3779189

[UpInArms]

57. From the WTF Dept: Goldman Sachs says plans 2-part FDIC-backed bond

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLC95375620090312

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS.N) said on Thursday it plans to sell a dual-tranche benchmark bond, denominated in U.S. dollars and backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

The planned two-year and three-year bonds will be fixed interest and/or floating rate notes (FRNs), said Goldman, the sole bookrunner for the triple-A rated deal.

making book on the FDIC????

Wasn't it yesterday that we find that the FDIC has no money and needs to borrow money from the Treasury because of the bank failures because the stuuuuupppiiidd Republican Congress from 1994 through 2006 decided no insurance premiums needed to be collected from these lying criminal enterprises?

:banghead:

[antigop]

63. Add that to the FDIC-backed GE Capital bonds

http://www.reuters.com/article/FDIC/idUSTRE52818T20090309

GE Capital, the finance arm of U.S. conglomerate General Electric Co, plans to sell more bonds under a government guarantee program, a source involved in the deal said on Monday.

The benchmark-sized offering is expected to price early this week, said the source, declining to be identified because he was not authorized to disclose details about the sale.

Benchmark-sized offerings are typically at least $500 million.

Shares of GE slumped last week, leaving them down 59 percent for the year, on worries that GE Capital has not adequately reserved against an expected rise in delinquencies on its loans.

The bonds will be sold under the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee (TLG) program, which confers backing by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on new bond issuance.

[Robbien]

60. Forbes rich list is out. Stanford dropped, Mexican Drug Trafficker added

New York: Mexican drug trafficker Joaquin Guzman Loera has made it to the Forbes list of world's richest people, while American billionaire Allen Stanford, who has been alleged of committing a multi-billion dollar scam, has failed to make the cut.

Not just Stanford, many other notable names like Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg, along with Indians such as Unitech's Ramesh Chandra and Suzlon's Tulsi Tanti have moved out of the elite league of billionaires.

The latest list by the American magazine features 793 richest people whereas the number stood at 1,125 last year. In the latest list, there are 38 new billionaires.

A total 355 individuals moved out from last year's league of billionaires and out of them, 80 had fortunes derived from finance or investments.

"Mexico's most wanted man 'El Chapo', or Shorty, heads the Sinaloa cartel, one of the biggest suppliers of cocaine to the US... (the) US government is offering a USD five million reward for his capture," Forbes wrote about Guzman Loera.

http://www.samaylive.com/news/forbes-rich-list-stanford-out-mexican-drug-lord-in/613324.html


Forbes can find the drug trafficker (or at least his money) but the Feds cannot?

[Demeter]

73. Forbes Does a Lot of Guessing

How intelligent their guesses are? Who knows?

[AnneD]

100. Give the Feds a break...

they can't find Osama either and he's not wealthy.

[Demeter]

104. I thought He Was One of the Rich binLadins

which was why Dubya couldn't find him.

[AnneD]

107. Not really....

But W couldn't find his ass if he had a map and used both hand. Daddy would have to help him. He is charming to some but rather simple, like the nice guy that talks you into letting him look over your shoulder during a test.

[antigop]

65. Has anyone looked at the three counts of money laundering against Madoff?

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/03/list_of_11_charges_against_bernard_madoff.php

Count 5: International money laundering, related to transfer of funds between New York-based brokerage operation and London trading desk. Maximum penalty: 20 years in prison, fine and restitution.

_ Count 6: International money laundering. Maximum penalty: 20 years in prison, fine and restitution.

_ Count 7: Money laundering. Maximum penalty: 10 years in prison, fine and restitution.

Count #5 gives info as to what the count was related to, but Counts #6 and #7 do not.

Has anyone seen any more info about these charges?

[Tansy_Gold]

67. According to another thread in LBN he's off to jail

Lawyer asked for him to be released to the penthouse but judge said there's no presumption of innocnece and ordered BM off to jail immediately.

Need to have the front page updated?????


TG

[antigop]

68. But I haven't seen anything specific about the money laundering counts #6 and #7.

Why is there specific info for count #5, but not #6 and #7???

[UpInArms]

97. Madoff's new home: Cell the size of walk-in closet

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090312/ap_on_bi_ge/madoff_scandal_jail

NEW YORK – Bernard Madoff's new Manhattan home is the size of a walk-in closet, with cinderblock walls, linoleum floors and a bunk bed. Breakfast will be served before sunrise, and the disgraced financier can stretch his legs outside, but only every other day — in a cage.

The Metropolitan Correctional Center, which has housed accused terrorists and reputed mobsters, welcomed the 70-year-old Madoff on Thursday after he pleaded guilty in one of Wall Street's biggest investment swindles and a judge revoked his bail.

The federal jail in lower Manhattan stands between a courthouse and a church and holds inmates awaiting trial or serving short sentences. Currently, about 750 men and women are behind bars there.

Since his arrest in December, Madoff has been confined to his $7 million penthouse apartment.

When inmates first arrive at the jail, they are given physical and psychological exams and instructed on the rules. If cleared to enter the general population, they are issued a baggy brown uniform and assigned to cells measuring 7 1/2-by-8 feet, each fitted with a sink and toilet.

Many inmates must share their cells with another prisoner, but it was not immediately clear Thursday whether Madoff would have a cellmate.

...more...

[UpInArms]

69. US Q4 household net worth drops $5.1 trillion -Fed

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSWEQ00077320090312

WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. households suffered a record-large 9 percent drop in wealth and curbed borrowing in the fourth quarter as a deepening recession battered confidence and finances, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

Household net worth dropped by $5.1 trillion from the prior quarter to $51.5 trillion. For the full year, net worth dropped by $11.2 trillion, reflecting steep declines in the housing and stock markets.

The U.S. central bank's quarterly Flow of Funds report also showed that household borrowing contracted at a 2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, after increasing at a 0.2 percent pace in the previous period. Home mortgage debt fell at a 1.6 percent pace -- the third consecutive quarter of declines -- and consumer credit dropped at a 3.2 percent rate.

[antigop]

71. Geithner--Gone by June

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/geithner-gone-by-june/

Chris Whalen Director of Institutional risk Analytics tells TSC’s Debra Borchardt that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be gone by June.

Video at link

[Demeter]

74. Why Stop Now?

Is that when the govt. runs out of money?

[Karenina]

91. BWHAHAHAHAHAHA!

:freak::spray::rofl:

[Belial]

76. I was hoping for April..

[ozymandius]

114. I was hoping for January.

[sallylou666]

78. Layoffs reported daily

If you want to be really depressed,check out this:

http://www.layoffdaily.com/

I'm wondering about all the school layoffs. What are they going to do about the kids? Put them into large, unsafe,unproductive classes?

[CatholicEdHead]

92. Really no other options

but expect more pressure put on teachers unions to accept major cutbacks down towards the fast food level pay.

[AnneD]

101. Enrollment expected to drop....

as kids are forced to work to support their family as rag pickers scrap workers, shoe shine boys, fruit and vegtable peddlers.

It will kill 2 birds with 1 stone....less money for the shrinking educational system and more jobs created....

[Ghost Dog]

81. GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks up on U.S. retail sales, gold jumps

Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:16pm EDT NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - Stocks around the world rose for a rare third day in a row on Thursday on reassuring U.S. retail sales and gold jumped after Switzerland intervened in currency markets, heralding a possible beggar-thy-neighbor policy war.

Oil jumped more than 6 percent and helped lift energy shares on both sides of the Atlantic as strong loan data from China led investors to speculate it could spur global growth.

The Swiss move to head off deflation by devaluing its currency is the first by a big central bank. Analysts said it could push the European Central Bank to follow the "unconventional easing" measures of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

...

The intervention suggested one of the world's safest currencies was deliberately undermined to help boost growth, which could lead other countries to follow.

"If all currencies are being devalued against each other then gold is a currency which is going to profit from it," Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said in Frankfort.

...

U.S. stocks rallied about 2 percent, spurred by a slight dip in U.S. retail sales in February that suggested consumer spending may be stabilizing.

"Investors psychologically are at a crossroads. We've seen a significant rally for the past couple of days. I think investors in general are wondering if this is a false start or a real-deal type rally," Michael Koskuba, a portfolio manager at Victory Capital Management.

"The other question is, did we hit a bottom?" Koskuba said.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) rose 3.1 percent while GE (GE.N) shares jumped about 12 percent after Standard & Poor's ratings service cut its credit rating on the conglomerate just one notch to AA-plus with a stable outlook.

Investors had feared a downgrade would be deeper or the outlook negative.

After 1 p.m., the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 133.57 points, or 1.93 percent, at 7,063.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 15.23 points, or 2.11 percent, at 736.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC climbed 25.41 points, or 1.85 percent, at 1,397.05.

European shares ended higher for a third straight session, with retailers jumping on positive results by Morrison (MRW.L) and Delhaize (DELB.BR).

The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares closed 0.6 percent higher at 696.89 points.

U.S. Treasury debt prices jumped in price after strong demand in an auction of $11 billion of reopened 30-year bonds.

...

Weak labor market data had weighed on U.S. government debt prices, while the GE downgrade, although expected, rattled investors and helped to support bonds.

...

"Clearly the consumer is not completely knocked out," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York-Mellon in New York.

"The difficulty, though, is we still need jobs growth and credit markets to thaw out before we can have a normal recovery."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1237244320090312?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

87. European Stocks Rise for Third Day; Carrefour, Holcim Advance

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks rose, pushing the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to a third straight advance, as the Swiss central bank cut its interest rate to close to zero and Carrefour SA led a rally in retailers.

Holcim Ltd., the world’s second-biggest cement maker, and Credit Suisse Group surged as the Swiss franc plunged against the dollar and the euro, boosting the value of foreign earnings. Carrefour gained 5.7 percent as Europe’s largest retailer said it will step up price cuts and reduce capital spending. Bulgari SpA and K+S AG dropped after posting disappointing results.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.7 percent to 167.36 in London, paring this year’s retreat to 16 percent. The gauge has rallied 5.6 percent over the past three days, the longest winning streak since January.

“When we see where interest rates are, investors will prefer investing in stocks,” said Lionel Heurtin, a fund manager at OFI Asset Management in Paris, which oversees $1.3 billion in stocks. “There’s been some good news lately and the rhythm of bad news is slowing. There’s the possibility of a significant rebound.”

National benchmark indexes rose in 14 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.5 percent, Germany’s DAX gained 1.1 percent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.8 percent. The Swiss Market Index advanced 1.5 percent.

Retailers Rise

Carrefour gained 5.7 percent to 26.07 euros. The French retailer said it will step up price cuts and reduce capital spending this year to help revive sales growth and cope with “challenging” business conditions.

Delhaize Group jumped 11 percent to 49.50 euros. The owner of the Food Lion supermarket chain in the U.S. reported fourth- quarter net income that surpassed analyst estimates and forecast operating profit will rise as much as 3 percent this year.

Holcim, which makes more than a third of revenue in the Americas, rallied 6.3 percent to 39 Swiss francs. Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, rose 2.4 percent to 28.6 francs.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a0hny70H3zJs&refer=europe

[Ghost Dog]

102. Glimmers of hope seen amid global economic crisis

Thu Mar 12, 2009 5:27pm EDT

* Bank of America CEO says profitable in Jan, Feb Hah ha

* GE stripped of top credit rating by Standard & Poor's

* U.S. retail sales edged lower in February

* World Bank president sees global economy shrinking 1-2%

* U.S. stocks power higher, European stocks gain (For more on the financial crisis, click on )

NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - A raft of economic and corporate news showing the severity of the global crisis also offered glimmers of stabilizing, and investors seized upon the silver lining on Thursday.

Bank of America reported a return to profit, General Electric was unruffled by a ratings downgrade, U.S. retail sales surprised with only a slight dip and China reported a surge in lending in the face of its economic slowdown.

Stock investors responded by driving the blue-chip Dow Jones industrials index .DJI 3.5 percent higher. The broader S&P 500 index .SPX rose 4.1 percent. <.N> Earlier, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares turned positive, gaining 0.6 percent.

Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) provided the week's latest reassurance from the fragile U.S. banking sector, recipient of massive government bailouts. The largest U.S. bank said it was profitable in January and February.

Bank of America Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis echoed the heads of Citigroup Inc (C.N) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) who said earlier this week their banks were in the black for this year.

...

General Electric Co (GE.N), a manufacturing and financial conglomerate, lost its top-tier credit rating because of the performance of its finance unit, but investors had feared the cut would be worse. GE said it anticipates no significant operational or funding impact from the change.

GE shares gained 12.7 percent.

U.S. retail sales dipped only 0.1 percent in February, a hint of economic stabilization even though a record 5.3 million workers on jobless benefits indicated households remain under pressure.

...

GLIMMERS IN ASIA TOO

Automaker General Motors Corp (GM.N) said it could survive through March without the additional $2 billion in emergency government aid it had requested.

China's industrial growth slowed to a record low at the start of the year, but a surge in bank lending in February spurred optimism that the economy could soon rebound.

In Japan, revised data showed the fourth-quarter slump for the world's second-biggest economy was slightly less severe than initially reported, although it still marked the worst contraction since the 1974 oil crisis.

A transatlantic rift deepened ahead of the weekend's G20 economic talks, as France and Germany made clear they would not bow to U.S. demands to spend more to to spur a recovery. The European Union is considering lending up to $100 billion to the IMF to help fight the downturn.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick told Britain's Daily Mail newspaper he expected the global economy to shrink about 1 percent to 2 percent this year.

"We haven't seen numbers like that since World War Two, which really means the '30s, so these are serious and dangerous times," he said.

For two decades self-regulation was the mantra for British and U.S. policymakers, but multibillion-dollar bank bailouts have pulled the rug out from under their light-touch approach.

The chief executive of Britain's Financial Services Authority, Hector Sants, bared his teeth at a speech to London's financial community at Thomson Reuters offices.

"There is a view that people are not frightened of the FSA. I can assure you that this is a view I am determined to correct. People should be very frightened of the FSA," he said.

...

German industrial output fell a record 7.5 percent in January, its biggest drop since reunification in 1990, as production for the export sector dived, preliminary Economy Ministry figures showed.

A study obtained by Reuters from the German Federal Labor Office said recession could push the number of unemployed to 3.7 million this year, a sharp revision of its earlier prediction of 3.3 million.

Italy's economy contracted at the steepest pace in at least 28 years in the fourth quarter, revised data showed Thursday, led by sharp declines in consumer spending and investment.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP43795920090312?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

103. US business leaders say hobbled by healthcare costs

WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. business leaders urged lawmakers on Thursday to act quickly on healthcare reform, saying American companies were losing out to other countries with cheaper healthcare and healthier workers.

The Business Roundtable, which represents the largest U.S. corporations, released a study showing that for every $100 spent in the United States on healthcare, a group of five leading economic competitors -- Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France -- spend about 63 cents.

...

The United States spends more on healthcare than any other country, but some 46 million Americans are still uninsured.

Ivan Seidenberg, chairman and chief executive of Verizon Communications (VZ.N), said an overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system "should have been done yesterday."

The United States, where most workers get healthcare insurance through their employers, faces an even bigger competitive disadvantage against rising economic powers Brazil, India and China, the Business Roundtable study said.

It said those countries spend about 15 cents on healthcare for every dollar spent in America.

BOILING FROG

"This is a boiling frog issue -- how long can you stay in the water before you get boiled to death," Seidenberg said. "We're looking at close to double-digit increases in healthcare costs going into the future."

The Business Roundtable executives said their study showed that despite the money Americans spend on healthcare, U.S. workers are less healthy than workers in other countries, putting U.S. firms an an even greater disadvantage.

The group wants changes that would reduce costs through greater use of technology and other efficiencies and require everyone to obtain health coverage -- echoing proposals made by the Obama administration.

They support plans to provide government aid to help those who cannot afford insurance, but said they do not want to see a government insurance plan that "dominates the market."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN1238213020090312?rpc=44

[Demeter]

105. Oh, And Payroll Taxes Are Another Drain on Corporations but Only in USA

which is why they outsource....pull the other one, willya? I like my legs to be the same length.

Guests on Diane Reim's show NPR today.

[tclambert]

106. "GM says it doesn't need $2B from gov't in March" - USA Today

It's not as good as black ink, but General Motors' news that it doesn't need government loan money this month is a sign that it is finally starting to bring its gargantuan expenses under control.

GM Chief Financial Officer Ray Young said Thursday that the struggling automaker's fortunes have improved to the point that it won't need the $2 billion March installment, despite the request the company made less than a month ago.

But Young wouldn't say when the GM might need more help, nor would he say whether it planned to reduce its request for a total of $30 billion in government financing.

Article at: http://content.usatoday.net/dist/custom/gci/InsidePage.aspx?cId=freep&sParam=30333993.story


My wife and I both said, "Damn it!" when we heard this news. That's because we've been trying to put together a little money (very little) to invest in GM stock, and we're about a week away.

[Demeter]

108. US calls for tripling of IMF firepower

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5203dc20-0e65-11de-b099-0000779fd2ac.html

The US raised the stakes in its drive for an aggressive response to the global financial crisis on Wednesday, calling for a tripling of the International Monetary Fund’s firepower and bigger fiscal stimulus measures worldwide.

Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, called for the radical changes ahead of the Group of 20 finance ministers’ meeting in the UK this weekend.

“Lots of things that did not seem realistic in the past are not just realistic but compelling,” he told reporters. “Forceful financial sector actions are critical to rebuild confidence, restore market functioning, get credit flowing again and bring stability to the global financial system.”

The US proposed that the IMF, which has about $250bn in easily usable resources, should get up to $500bn more to help it combat instability in crisis-struck countries. The agreements would involve massively expanding the so-called New Arrangements to Borrow, a system by which the fund can borrow from its richer members, and expanding it to include more emerging market countries.

The demand outstrips the call even from the fund’s own management, which has asked for $250bn more in resources from its member governments.

Mr Geithner said that each G20 country should set a target of spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product for 2009 and 2010 in fiscal stimulus, and that the IMF should monitor progress towards that goal....

[Demeter]

109. Stanford pleads the fifth amendment

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a48f6c98-0e92-11de-b099-0000779fd2ac.html


Sir Allen Stanford has refused to co-operate with the US government’s investigation into an alleged $8bn fraud at the companies that bear his name as it emerged that Stanford executives had expressed concerns over the accuracy of the group’s financial statements weeks before US regulators made their move.

In a court filing released on Wednesday, Sir Allen invoked the fifth amendment and said he would decline to testify or produce any documents related to the civil complaint by the Securities and

Sir Allen’s attorney, Charles Meadows, maintains that the SEC’s claims against his client are false.

In pleading the fifth amendment, Sir Allen joined James Davis, his college roommate and chief financial officer of the Stanford group, who last month refused to co-operate with the investigations.

Mr Meadows said he did not know the precise whereabouts of his client.

The filing was part of a collection of documents compiled by the SEC in support of its allegations and ahead of a hearing in Dallas on Thursday. These documents also included a series of e-mails between Stanford executives, including Sir Allen, that showed an increasing concern about the group’s flagship enterprise, Stanford International Bank....

MORE AT LINK

[Demeter]

111. IN-DEPTH COVERAGE OF SIR ALLEN STANFORD

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/74411c86-fe74-11dd-b19a-000077b07658.htm?ftcamp=Late_headline2/NL/USMar2009/Cluster_2_stnfrd/0/

[Demeter]

110. (GE JACK) Welch condemns share price focus

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/294ff1f2-0f27-11de-ba10-0000779fd2ac.html

Jack Welch, who is regarded as the father of the “shareholder value” movement that has dominated the corporate world for more than 20 years, has said it was “a dumb idea” for executives to focus so heavily on quarterly profits and share price gains.

The former General Electric chief told the Financial Times the emphasis that executives and investors had put on shareholder value, which began gaining popularity after a speech he made in 1981, was misplaced.

Mr Welch, whose record at GE encouraged other executives to replicate its consistent returns, said that managers and investors should not set share price increases as their overarching goal. He added that short-term profits should be allied with an increase in the long-term value of a company.

“On the face of it, shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world,” he said. “Shareholder value is a result, not a strategy . . . Your main constituencies are your employees, your customers and your products.”

Mr Welch spoke before Thursday’s news that GE, which he left in 2001, had lost its triple A rating from Standard & Poor’s....The birth of the shareholder value movement is commonly traced to a speech that Mr Welch gave at New York’s Pierre hotel in 1981, shortly after taking the helm at GE.

In the speech, titled “Growing Fast in a Slow-Growth Economy”, Mr Welch did not mention the term but outlined his beliefs in selling underperforming businesses and cutting costs to increase profits faster than global economic growth.

GE “will be the locomotive pulling the GNP, not the caboose following it”, he was quoted as saying.

Mr Welch last week said he never meant to suggest boosting a company’s share price should be the main goal of executives.

“It is a dumb idea,” he said. “The idea that shareholder value is a strategy is insane. It is the product of your combined efforts – from the management to the employees”.

[TheWatcher]

112. End Of Day Commentary: Maybe we have found the Next Bubble.....

"Hope"

Dow gains nearly 240 on good news on banks, GM
Dow gains nearly 240 on day of good news about banks, General Motors and retailers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors have been clamoring for months for a bit of good news. On Thursday, they got a load of it. The Dow Jones industrials shot up 240 points, bringing its gains over the past three days to 622 points. It was the index's biggest three-day jump since last November.


This week's rally got an extra dose of adrenalin after an accounting board told Congress Thursday it may recommend a let-up in accounting rules for troubled banks in three weeks.

Hope that financial institutions might finally get relief in how they value their bad assets spurred a flurry of buying on Wall Street, which accelerated when Bank of America Corp.'s CEO told reporters his bank was profitable in January and February. Citigroup Inc. triggered this week's rally Tuesday with similar remarks.

"We might find that the banks are not as bad, or not bad at all, if these assets are marked differently," said Doreen Mogavero, president of the New York floor brokerage Mogavero, Lee & Co.

Stocks also got a boost as retail sales figures came in better than anticipated, General Electric Co. got its credit rating cut by less than expected and General Motors Corp. said it will not need a $2 billion loan it previously requested from the government.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-gains-nearly-240-on-good-apf-14621828.html

I guess the first sentence says it all.

"Investors have been clamoring for months for a bit of good news. On Thursday, they got a load of it."

They got a Load of it alright. I have to admit, you HAVE to give TPTB and the criminals credit where credit is due. By dumping the biggest load of Bullshit on the Public that we have seen in a generation, they have managed to artificially manipulate the Market over 600 Points in three days.

And they did it all on not one piece of substantial data, not one iota technical of fundamental evidence, and absolutely nothing real or tangible of any kind. It was all done on Rumor, Lies, and their new Pet Mechanism that they are banking on for a New Bubble in the Stock Markets....."Hope".

Hope that financial institutions might finally get relief in how they value their bad assets spurred a flurry of buying on Wall Street, which accelerated when Bank of America Corp.'s CEO told reporters his bank was profitable in January and February. Citigroup Inc. triggered this week's rally Tuesday with similar remarks.

Yes, "Hope." Evidence, Facts, Substantiated raw Data to prove that said "Hope" is warranted and that this Rally is nothing more than an Organized Fraud? Nope, just "Hope"

This week's rally got an extra dose of adrenalin after an accounting board told Congress Thursday it may recommend a let-up in accounting rules for troubled banks in three weeks.

Notice the key word there. "May." Not Will Recommend. Not any concrete plan set in stone that is about to be approved. Just "May Recommend". In THREE WEEKS.

"We might find that the banks are not as bad, or not bad at all, if these assets are marked differently," said Doreen Mogavero, president of the New York floor brokerage Mogavero, Lee & Co.

Yes Doreen, and I MIGHT find $50,000 in a Wall in my apartment tomorrow, or I MIGHT win the Lottery next Wednesday.

Stocks also got a boost as retail sales figures came in better than anticipated, General Electric Co. got its credit rating cut by less than expected and General Motors Corp. said it will not need a $2 billion loan it previously requested from the government.

"retail sales figures came in better than anticipated"

:rofl: Yes, SO exciting. -0.1% instead of -0.5% VS, last months Prior Fabricated Number of 1.8%. HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!

"General Electric Co. got its credit rating cut by less than expected"

Yes GE Is definitely bringing better things to light. They kind of left the part out that the company is in DIRE danger of gong Bankrupt by the first week of June, but this is NOW. We have Three Full Months to Party and defraud the Public before then. Light Up! Drink Up! Dancing Girls! "We're DOUBLE-A!" "We're DOUBLE-A!"

"General Motors Corp. said it will not need a $2 billion loan it previously requested from the government."

Yes, much like BAC doesn't need any more help, Citi is profitable the first two months of the quarter, etc, etc, etc.

You have to admit the Propaganda is getting almost Goebbels like in brilliance. Here, allow me to Translate:

THERE IS NO MONEY THAT CAN BE GIVEN. The TAP IS DRY. THESE FAILED INSTITUTIONs CAN'T GET ANY MORE HELP FROM UNCLE SUGAR, BECAUSE THERE IS NO MORE TO SPARE. THE WELL IS DRY.

"There's a lot of money on the sidelines, and a lot of people who've been waiting for the turn to come," Mogavero said.

Ah, we're back to this tired old meme again. It's an age old favorite. It's nice to see that even the antique Propaganda is still getting some of the spotlight.

You know, not to be a "Doom and Gloomer", a wet blanket, or to piss on the Victory Cake, but curiously lost in all the Confetti Of Corruption today were the weekly Unemployment Statistics.

Those came in at 654,000 VS. 640,000 Expected.

But don't for a minute think that wasn't factored into today's fun as well, just because it didn't get mentioned. By now, most thinking people have figured out that Wall Street has a disturbing, almost Sexual Fetish with the suffering of the common people, so you can bet this REALLY got them off today.

So there you have it. All it takes to run the Dow 9% in three days is Hopes, Beliefs, Assurances, Lies, and Propaganda.

Here is some more on that, straight from the Horse's Ass, CNBC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Small-Victories-Market-Looks-cnbc-14619835.html:

We should get something, Nice And Sparkling Clear here folks.

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will Not Solve Eastern Europe.

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will Not suddenly make the Banking System Solvent

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will Not suddenly turnaround the collapsing Japanese Export Market

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will Not Bring Back the Millions Of Jobs that have been lost, nor will it create new ones.

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will Not keep GE afloat, anymore than it did Bear Stearns, Lehman, or Fortis.

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will Not safely unwind the unfunded Liability of the Untied States, which is $66 Trillion Dollars.

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will Not bring back the Housing Market or keep many major retailers from failing or going bankrupt this year, or save thousands of Small Businesses from going bankrupt as well.

HOPE, ASSURANCES, POTENTIAL, and RUMORS Will NOT SAVE US.

In Fact, WE WILL NOT BE SAVED.

Wall Street has sent you a clear message these past three days.

"We've Got Ours, Fuck The Rest Of You. Go Die. We're All Fine Here."

There are a lot of Sheep out there celebrating tonight.

To them I say this:

They can run this all the way back to 10,000. It WILL NOT MATTER.

Nothing will change for YOU. YOU Will not benefit from it.

YOU Will still lose your Job. YOU will still lose your House. YOU will still not be able to pay your bills. YOU will still struggle with higher prices, and falling wages. YOU will still see your small business go bankrupt.

YOUR Future will stay the same, in the fact that you HAVE NO FUTURE, because NONE OF THE PROBLEMS ARE EVEN BEING ADDRESSED AND CONFRONTED, much less SOLVED.

The only we are seeing is A Transfer Of Wealth by Brute Force. A coordinated manipulation to higher price levels, so that big money can further bail itself out to safer havens, while YOU get left holding the bag of their bullshit.

It's like the late, Great George Carlin Once Said:

"It's A Big Club. And You Ain't In It....."

This whole thing is a fraud.

WAKE UP.

[ozymandius]

113. There's the word again: HOPE.

It makes a great campaign slogan. It, however, makes a rotten investment plan. I have an ounce of dryer lint in my hand. The value of the lint today is $0. But I contend that the lint on the lint futures market will be worth $1 when options expire in three months. Therefore I can sell the wad of lint today, at immense profit to myself, for what I think it will be worth in three months.

At least I hope it will be worth $1 per ounce. Don't tell anybody otherwise, okay? Don't go spoiling my scheme to defraud true believers in dryer lint futures.

[TheWatcher]

115. You nailed it in a nutshell there ozy.

That's their big Cover Story for this current Transfer Of Wealth. "Hope."

And you know, there was something I didn't even mention.

Even IF there was complete substance and tangibility to all the BS that was laid out today, and everything they "Hoped" was actually true and done, how in the HELL would that translate into real, tangible growth and recovery for the overall economy?

The "Hope" they have is in saving themselves, not the greater good or the economy as a whole.

I guess the point of today's rant is that it doesn't matter what THEY DO, or THEY SAY.

We are screwed regardless.

I mean, here is an example:

This week's rally got an extra dose of adrenalin after an accounting board told Congress Thursday it may recommend a let-up in accounting rules for troubled banks in three weeks.

So WHAT if this becomes a reality? How does this translate into overall recovery for the Economy, or the Banking System as a whole? Changing the rules so that the Banks can get back to committing even BIGGER and more OUTLANDISH fraud than they already have? This isn't about restoring health to the Banking System. ONCE AGAIN, it's about preserving the Status Quo that created this Crisis to begin with, and this will make things EVEN WORSE, not better.

[ozymandius]

117. Thank you.

Fraud has become so commonplace that anything else is anathema to the way bidness is done. So it seems with any movement to suspend real value pricing of assets.

Recovery is not an option under these terms. Absolute value of assets has a way of asserting itself. That's how we got here in the first place.

[specimenfred1984]

116. The S&P could go up to the 1000 mark and that'd only be a 50% retracement

of it's downtrend. Retracements are used to sucker people into the markets, it's just another form of propaganda for the slightly more educated in the field. Goebbels targeted propaganda on 3 types: common man, while collar man and intellectuals and you are correct, he'd be eating his heart out in amazement over the use of propaganda in today's world.

If this were a real market, the S&P would move up to around 850 where it would hit it's latest downtrend line and all the markets would continue down but over the last few years the propagandists/market manipulators like to push prices through resistance and/or support to make it look like it's been broken, only to sucker in as many as possible. Then, the market turns.

I looked at real estate in my area lately, the prices are still absurd, nowhere near incomes in affordability. The U.S. has a lot further down to go whether it's on Main St. or Wall St..

[Ghost Dog]

118. Wake up, indeed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRXW3lLcag4&NR=1 (Da Pacem Domine - Monastic Gregorian Chant)

[DemReadingDU]

124. Very nice, thank you

Brings back my grade school days when I was taught by Benedictine nuns and priests. In late 50's and early 60s, Mass was still in Latin. Very beautiful hearing these chants again.

[TheWatcher]

126. You are always the Balance for my Fury Ghost Dog. :)

And I do appreciate it. :)

Thank You for that.

[DemReadingDU]

123. Great commentary - This whole thing is a fraud

It's what you say "A Transfer Of Wealth by Brute Force"

They aren't going to stop until our middle class bag is completely drained and empty.

:(

[ozymandius]

119. For the record: closing numbers and blather with some cognitive dissonance

Dow 7,170.06 Up 239.66 (3.46%)
Nasdaq 1,426.10 Up 54.46 (3.97%)
S&P 500 750.74 Up 29.38 (4.07%)
10-Yr Bond 2.892% Down 0.024
NYSE Volume 8,477,941,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,546,697,000

4:30 pm : Following a sluggish start, stocks put together an impressive performance in which the S&P 500 advanced more than 4%, providing participants with a solid follow through from Tuesday's 6.4% rebound.

This session's positive tone was inspired by better-than-expected retail sales data, renewed buying interest in bellwether General Electric, and more encouraging news from the financial sector.

Better-than-expected retail sales data suggested consumers haven't completely rolled over. February retail sales declined just 0.1%, which is better than the 0.5% decline that was expected. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.7%. A decline of 0.1% was expected. Meanwhile, January total sales and sales less autos were revised to show an even larger increase.

The upbeat retail sales data comes in the face of ongoing consumer headwinds, such as mounting job losses. Weekly initial claims climbed 9,000 to 654,000, which was worse than expected. Continuing claims jumped nearly 200,000 to 5.32 million, which was also worse than expected.

In other economic news, February business inventories declined 1.1%, which is essentially in-line with the consensus estimate.

Participants had little in the way of corporate headlines to digest until Standard & Poor's disclosed they lowered General Electric's (GE 9.57, +1.08) credit rating one notch to AA+ from AAA. However, the downgrade became widely expected, so investors already priced in the bad news by sending shares to multiyear lows in recent weeks. That allowed shares to rebound once the bad news was released.

Financial stocks took their cues from GE. Financials had been down more than 2% in the early going, but rallied to close with a 10% gain. Bank of America (BAC 5.85, +0.92) was a primary leader among financials. According to Dow Jones, the company stated it was profitable in the first two months of the year and the company doesn't believe it will need more government capital.

Financial stocks were also helped by hope a congressional subcommittee will suspend mark-to-market accounting rules, though no definitive statements have been made from the committee's meeting.

Stocks closed at session highs, capping three straight sessions of gains. During that time stocks have advanced nearly 11%. That is the best three-session performance since stocks rallied from their November lows, which where stocks are now trading.DJ30 +239.66 NASDAQ +54.46 SP500 +29.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2210/2.15 bln/495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2839/1.81 bln/261

[Ghost Dog]

120. Nikkei set to gain broadly on Wall St, bank hopes

Thu Mar 12, 2009 7:33pm EDT TOKYO, March 13 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average is likely
to surge broadly on Friday, after U.S. stocks rose for a third
day on stabilising retail sales data and after Bank of America
(BAC.N) reported a return to profit.

...

"We've begun to see some news, like the Bank of America news
that represents a shift away from pessimism that has dominated so
far," said Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Shinko
Securities.

Bank of America provided the week's latest reassurance from
the fragile U.S. banking sector, recipient of massive government
bailouts. The largest U.S. bank said it was profitable in January
and February and should be able to ride out the recession without
any additional help from taxpayers.

"The market will likely gain across the board after a jump in
U.S. stocks reacting to that news and on a halt in the
appreciation of the yen," Miura said.

Nikkei futures traded in Chicago 2NKc1 closed at 7,445 on
Thursday, 355 points above the Osaka close JNIc1, pointing to a
higher opening.

Market participants expect the benchmark Nikkei .N225 to
trade between 7,200 and 7,500 on Friday.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKT7841520090312?rpc=44

[ozymandius]

121. Jeebus! There's that word again - plural this time.

See post #113.

[Ghost Dog]

122. Precisely.

Suckers be warned.

Good night! :hi:

[TheWatcher]

125. You really have to wonder how they plan to keep this going.

I am seeing some really disturbing posts out in the Meadow tonight, as there are a lot of people who seem to think this could be similar to the "Miracle Turnaround" of 2003, when the Market and the financial system was sliding into much the same abyss we are right now, but they managed to Blow Yet Another Bubble, and delay the inevitable for five more years, with the Biggest Pozi Scheme ever perpetrated in Human History.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that is what's happening here.

HOW are they going to do it?

Since they have nothing of substance or tangibility to base it on, HOW are thye going to Blow the next Bubble basically out of NOTHING?

They can't use Real Estate. That Bone has been picked clean already.

They can't use Tech Again.

They COULD use Alternative Energy, but they won't because that would mean too many common people would benefit, and none of them would ever be able to achieve arousal again for the next few years.

I mean, what are they going to do? They have to do something illegal, unethical, and completely bereft of Moral Hazard, since they no longer have a FUNCTIONING SYSTEM to play with and destroy.

One thing is for sure, now that they have planted the seeds here, they are going to have to constantly sow them EVERY DAY relentlessly for as long as they can, or this whole thing is going to blow up even worse than before.

And even though I constantly berate and pick at them, there is one variable that is always a Wild Card, and is something even THEY can't control.

As asleep as they have been, The Public just MIGHT wake up one of these sunny days, and refuse to feed into their trough any longer. They cannot ever afford to have that happen.

Because as ruthless and Power Mad as they are, and as much control as they wield, at the end of the day, they still need US to survive.

And as much as they'd like to get rid of us, and seem to be trying their dead level best to do so, they are not at a point where they no longer need us.

They are going for broke, because everything has failed and it doesn't matter anymore.

At the very LEAST, if the rest of us have to go down with the ship, out of SHEER PRINCIPLE, we should take THEM with us.

This Foolishness has Got To Stop.

On Edit: Why has NO ONE who is celebrating this "patriotic Victory For Wall Street" Asking the following question. On Monday evening, we were facing the Collapse of the entire Banking System, save for JPM and Wells Fargo, GM was collapsing, and GE was indicating that they could be Bankrupt the first week of June.

Three Days Later, Cramer is talking about Dow 8000 and Beyond, and everything in our financial system is solved, everyone's fine , and everything is Puppies and Rainbows again?

The question is this: "If everything was so simple to solve within 72 hours, with Memo Writing, The Failed Institutions Smiling and saying "We're Ok, we don't need any more help, we're Profitable now", then WHY HAS THERE BEEN AN ECONOMIC CRISIS TO BEGIN WITH? Why all the Bailouts in the first place? Why all the Gun To The Head Legislation? Why has the Stock Market lost 50% of it's Value in 6 Months? Why are Governments Collapsing and Entire Countries going Bankrupt and slipping into lawless CHAOS? In other words: WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL?"

OK, that's several questions, but you get the point. :)

The answer probably lies in the fact that this is a Go For Broke, Brute Force, Final Transfer of whatever wealth and Treasure the rest of us have left. That or they managed to find another Bubble to Blow, and we get to live the next five years in the same, horrid Economic Purgatory we have been in for the previous five.

[skoalyman]

128. good lord I'm lost for words I think they're going for broke at all cost

that means massive manipulation fed out to the press.If that's true it won't change what caused us to arrive in this situation to began with all it will do is make what could have been a softer crash and turn it into a hard teeth shattering crash.:puffpiece: