Lord Stern on global warming: It's even worse than I thought

[B Whale]

Source: Independent

Lord Stern said new research done in the past two or three years had made it clear there were "severe risks" if global temperature rose by the predicted 4C to 7C by 2100. Agriculture would be destroyed and life would be impossible over much of the planet, the former World Bank chief economist said


"Much of southern Europe would look like the Sahara. Many of the major rivers of the world, serving billions of people, would dry up in the dry seasons or re-route." Billions of people would have to relocate as a result, he said.
"What would be the implication of that? Extended conflict, social disruption, war essentially, over much of the world, for many decades.



Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/lord-stern-on-global-warming-its-even-worse-than-i-thought-1643957.html

---

Our children are going to be mighty pissed

[Jackpine Radical]

1. Our children are going to be too busy surviving to be pissed.

My bet is that, if we don't wake up in a hurry, the world's population will drop to less than 1/3 of what it is in the present. It will be like the Plague Years in Europe.

[Lorien]

2. Our children? Most of US are going to be suffering from storms, starvation

and water shortages-not to mention the wars that come with them-in our lifetimes. We're seriously fucking up here and we still refuse to face the truth of it.

[dysfunctional press]

41. i'm glad that we chose not to have children and that we live in the great lakes region.

:woohoo:

[B Whale]

48. The US will, in the main, be fine

Its Africa and Asia that will be screwed with drought, floods, famine and war as a result of this greed and corruption.

Never been to the great lakes. Nice i imagine?

[dysfunctional press]

60. things will have to get REALLY bad before we start seeing major warfare on our soil...

for the most part, it's a very pretty area...i like wisconsin best, myself. we live in northern illinois, about 40 miles west of lake michigan.
a few years back, my wife and i took an early october drive AROUND lake superior- the vistas were just gorgeous. we drove to duluth, and then followed the lake around into canada, and on to sault st. marie, and then across the u.p. of michigan, and back to chicago.
it was a FANTASTIC trip. still one of my favourites.

[Hugabear]

3. This is why global warming deniers are criminals against humanity

If it were simply a matter of free speech, that would be one thing. But these global warming deniers are just as dangerous, if not more so, than the neo-Nazi groups that advocate violence. By continually obscuring the facts, misleading the public, spewing lies and misinformation, they are emboldening politicians and leaders to dig their heels in the sand, to resist any attempts to take corrective action. If anything, the pace of resistance seems to be INCREASING over the past few years, as global warming deniers use selective data to "prove" their case.

[Belial]

4. I am not a denier... I would just like some scientific evidence that

was based on reason.... not emotion.. as with the selective data.. that works both ways.

[B Whale]

7. An overwhelming majority of scientists working

in this field agree we are facing a man made global warming crisis.

On that basis i think we should act.

In addition we have nothing to lose. By investing in renewable energy and green technologies we are creating new industries, jobs and innovation in the world, making it less polluted in the process.

If we are right and global warming is man made we will have addressed it. If we are wrong and it is a crock of shit, we have new industries and technologies for people to work in.

Also, don't forget energy independence is going to be a crucial issue in the 21st century as the oil runs dry. Renewables mean you don't have to rely on, shall we say, less than trustworthy suppliers.

Its a win win.

[redqueen]

9. You've gotta be kidding.

[PaulaFarrell]

42. Here ya go

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm

[Squatch]

64. I know where you can find some scientific evidence...

in a fucking library at any university.

I swear...the internet has made people incredibly lazy. They think that if the information is not readily accessible through a few keystrokes on Google, then it must not exist.

[walnutpie]

5. Hi, I'm a Nazi!

For the record, I think the global warming is a crock of shit, and its adherents project an ugly religious fervor whenever the subject comes up.

Go ahead, stifle debate, laugh at anything contrary to your faith, belittle and demonize anyone who dares to differ from your world view.

It's okay, because we are all nazis. LOL.

[B Whale]

6. Science is the best method we

have for gaining facts in the modern world since the enlightenment because it is built on standardised experiments that prove or disprove hypothesise through empirical facts.

The overwhelming majority of scientists in the world working in this field agree that we are facing a man made global warming crisis.

On that basis i think we should act. To do anything else is gross negligence of responsibility to the next generations.

[Belial]

8. 31,000 plus scientist would disagree with you..

[Javaman]

33. so, really, how long have you been on the oil corps payroll?

or do you willingly spew this ignorant stuff?

you are very amusing, in that sort of odd way people get chuckles watching a dog get out from under a sheet.

[PaulaFarrell]

43. 31,000 climatologists?

No, though not

[NickB79]

65. You mean the 31,000 economists, social scientists, and other non-climatologists?

Because the various "XXX-number-of-scientists-who-disagree-with-climate-change-theory" petitions are usually absolutely padded with them. That, and a few actual climatologists who just happen to get grants from the oil, gas and coal industries.

[B Whale]

10. And 33,000 that is not a majority, so even those

scientists may agree with the Maths that they are wrong and the majority of scientists are right.

(...and not the pay of exxon mobil...)

[Reterr]

57. It is unclear how many of those people are even practicing scientists

The problem with most of these Freeper morons that go around saying "HAH-5 PhDs were on Glenn Beck we is RIIIGHT about sience!" , "Them durn libruls don't reelize these PhDs here agree with Chuck Norris and high school drop-out Rush Limbaugh.", is that they largely really have no comprehension of how science works.

For instance, having a PhD in Molecular Biology does NOT make you an expert on the nuances of say climate science. I randomly picked some 50 names off that stupid 31,000 list and tried to look these people up. For about 30 of them I could find no faculty pages, no links to any active research they are doing at any university or company or anything like that...

It is extremely unclear what disciplines these morons even got their PhDs in, what their expertise is and why their opinion should be considered relevant.

I have a PhD in engineering but went on into industry rather than go the academic route. My room-mate is an actual practicing scientist who works in a highly interdisciplinary area. If any of these Freeper morons (who are so proud of that list) actually knew anything about academia, research, science etc., they would realize that pulling out 30,000 random "PhDs" about whom nothing is known and making a case that their opinion in a highly politicized and complex area of science means something, is fucking stupid.

The only revealing thing about it is that it makes it clear to one again that Freepers, while they normally proudly cling to stupidity, ignorance and superstition (Palin voters), have a deep-seated inferiority complex at the end of the day about how generally moronic and ignorant most of us consider them. And so they are delighted to get some person, any person with some approximation of an actual doctorate of some sort to validate their lunatic beliefs.

[Baclava]

18. You wanna save the world? Stop cutting down the rainforrests.

Those sonsabitches in South America are the ones killing our children's future by destroying the richest diversity of life on earth.

All for the love of gold - so some rich scientist can wear more gold while he's crying about some supposed future he's getting rich selling? Bah.

I'm on the side of the plants.

A green earth is a happy earth, I say.

[B Whale]

26. Completely 100% agree with this post however

But i view at all part of the same problem, maybe you don't

This is man made climate change because its man cutting the trees and that fucks up the climate and the environment.

"A green earth is a happy earth" fuck yeah

[muriel_volestrangler]

37. "so some rich scientist can wear more gold"? Give me strength

That's one of the most asinine things I've ever seen written on DU.

Oh yeah, it's the 'scientists' who are demanding more wealth from the world. :sarcasm:

And don't insult an entire continent with "Those sonsabitches in South America". "Our children's future" is being 'killed' by us - by our demand for energy, hardwood and meat, which we willingly pay South America to produce at the expense of the rain forest, and by the fossil fuel we burn from the rest of the world. The drive to ruin the planet comes mainly from the developed world.

Anyone who is poo-poohing climate change is not 'on the side of the plants':

Amazon could shrink by 85% due to climate change, scientists say
• Scientists say 4C rise would kill 85% of the Amazon rainforest
• Even modest temperature rise would see 20-40% loss within 100 years

Global warming will wreck attempts to save the Amazon rainforest, according to a devastating new study which predicts that one-third of its trees will be killed by even modest temperature rises.

The research, by some of Britain's leading experts on climate change, shows that even severe cuts in deforestation and carbon emissions will fail to save the emblematic South American jungle, the destruction of which has become a powerful symbol of human impact on the planet. Up to 85% of the forest could be lost if spiralling greenhouse gas emissions are not brought under control, the experts said. But even under the most optimistic climate change scenarios, the destruction of large parts of the forest is "irreversible".

Vicky Pope, of the Met Office's Hadley Centre, which carried out the study, said: "The impacts of climate change on the Amazon are much worse than we thought. As temperatures rise quickly over the coming century the damage to the forest won't be obvious straight away, but we could be storing up trouble for the future."

Tim Lenton, a climate expert at the University of East Anglia, called the study, presented at a global warming conference in Copenhagen today , a "bombshell". He said: "When I was young I thought chopping down the trees would destroy the forest but now it seems that climate change will deliver the killer blow."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/amazon-global-warming-trees

[Baclava]

39. That's some tasty guilt-cud you're chewing there.

I'm not poo-ing it, I'm not buying it.

Of course we consume, it's what our kind does.

The more we consume the more we breed.

It's the same everywhere.

[readmoreoften]

63. Yes, the post is chock full of stupid.

You know, come to think of it, I don't think I've EVER seen a scientist wearing ostentatious amounts of gold.

[NickB79]

66. Yeah, my biochem professor looked stunning, driving his beat-up Honda while wearing all that bling

You clearly have NEVER known a scientist, because anyone who has worked in academia would know that very, very few researchers ever make much money in research. Every scientist I have known does research out of love of knowledge, not as a means to a fatter wallet.

Oh, and you care about the rain forests? Read the latest research into their future if global CO2 emissions are not stopped damn fast: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/amazon-global-warming-trees\

"Amazon could shrink by 85% due to climate change, scientists say

• Scientists say 4C rise would kill 85% of the Amazon rainforest
• Even modest temperature rise would see 20-40% loss within 100 years"

snip

"Tim Lenton, a climate expert at the University of East Anglia, called the study, presented at a global warming conference in Copenhagen today , a "bombshell". He said: "When I was young I thought chopping down the trees would destroy the forest but now it seems that climate change will deliver the killer blow.""

[Rage for Order]

62. "Criminals against humanity"?

:rofl:

What do you call people who keep their thermostat on 72 degrees in the summer, small time crooks? :eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

11. This is the most important message to the planet.

So, a more self-controlled economy, less and more careful consumption, more recycling and renewables - these are absolute necessities to which we must intelligently adjust.

Please tell your leaders.

[The2ndWheel]

13. Just an observation

You said the word more three times, and the word less once. I just found that interesting in the context of the post.

[Ghost Dog]

58. More change,

less of the same old same old.

-> point taken. Maybe our language(s), as well as our thoughts and actions, need to change.

[Baclava]

12. I'd rather have a warming earth than a cooling one.

Sorry - I don't buy into the hysteria either. They've been wrong before.
Ice sucks, that's why I live in FL.
Let the silly Brits worry about rising sea levels. Would they rather have a 2 mile icesheet over their heads?

Milankovitch cycles

Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time, the elliptical orbit rotates, more slowly, leading to a 21,000-year cycle between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit moves from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000-year cycle. Currently, this angle is 23.44 degrees and is decreasing.

Everything is cyclical. 420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok



p.s. CO2 is our friend - plants love it. Without them - we die.

[Belial]

14. Damnit.. What do you think you are doing?

Don't go posting facts... :)

[Baclava]

15. I hug my tomatoes

They like it hot.

Let the rest of them heat haters eat ice, I say.

[B Whale]

17. Denying man made global warming is an

exciting conspiracy theory, but its also complete crap.

Grow up and do some research, and then maybe give a shit about the droughts and wars that will be heading to the poorer parts of the world as a result of you living your fat pampered lifestyle in the US.

[Baclava]

19. My Botany degree is older than you

I'm on the side of the warm-earth loving plants.

You humans can just get up and leave if you don't like where you're at.

glug glug

[B Whale]

25. "My Botany Degree is older than you" LOL

You remind me of an old gardener i used to know doing my apprenticeship. Freakily so in fact...

Its sad but extremely common when people reach a point and just stop learning. Its more comfortable to stick to the assumptions you learnt as a young man.

If you don't give a shit about the people that will suffer because of this then fine, but tackling global warming will not harm you so maybe just don't say anything rather than spread misinformation to make yourself feel cool.

[Baclava]

34. Somebody has to speak for the other lifeforms on this rock.

Humans are so human-centric.

Plants have blooming lives too, ya know.

[Reterr]

53. The sheer inanity of your posts is mind-blowing.eom

[B Whale]

16. The research in the post, if you look, accepts

cyclical warming and cyclical C02 levels. The point is, we are accelerating and adding to this cycle through man made pollution.

The earth is self regulating without humans as your chart shows. However, we have been digging coal and oil out of the ground that has been lying there for millions of years and pumping millions of tonnes of C02 into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution.

That is not part of the natural cycle and is causing havoc. Earth will be fine, you will be fine and the silly brits will be fine (as you call us). The people that won't be fine are the poorest in sub saharan Africa and Asia who can't afford to adjust and will see their countries turn into either flood plains or deserts.

The main problem, again if your read it, is mass migration on an unsustainable level, war, drought and famine.

you may not give a shit about that, but most people do.

[Baclava]

20. You're right - this planet has too many unnatural humans.

But you know people get upset when you talk about culling the herd.

The earth will abide.

[B Whale]

23. Good straw man there with the unnatural humans line, well done

"The Earth will abide" - That's exactly the point i made. The earth will fine, absoluely fine, you're missing the point.

Its the people who won't be fine. The people who get flooded out of their homes, or whose crops fail, who suffer famine, drought and are starved out of their countries. Those countries who descend into war over resources as a result of this. they won't abide.

You'll be fine in the US though my friend, just turn the aircon up a little more kick back and relax, and don't put the news on.

[Baclava]

28. Football is over - baseball and basketball suck. I have nothing else to argue.

I can't wait for Le Tour.

March sucks, but it's getting nice and warm here.

[B Whale]

30. I see you only stick to the second half of your signature

good night

[The abyss]

21. Baclava - Thanks for posting this!

Very good!

[Baclava]

22. Don't get me wrong, humans are screwing up this planet.

Just not in the way most provincial societies think. They are all short-sighted and only think of themselves.

A freeezing hellhole of an ice planet is not my idea of fun.

[B Whale]

24. A freezing hell hole of an ice planet is not the choice.

Its not either "warm up a bit to a nice lovely temperature" or "Ice Age"

North America is going to be ok. Its Africa and Asia and the poorest countries in this world that are screwed. Many live on a knife edge anyway. A few degrees warmer at the speed we're going will mean floods, famine, drought, disease and misery.

That's the point of global warming. The comfy Western democracies who will adapt but the rest, they will be fucked.

Please do some research on the effects of this and tell me you don't give a shit then!

[Baclava]

27. Cull the herd - stop breeding, that will teach them a lesson.

So a few million die - so what? We'll breed more.

Better than 8 billion when the ice caps advance.

If we can add a few more joules to the atmosphere to stave that off for a few more thousand years, fine by me.
WE should be ready to get off this mudball and spread our seed to the stars by then. Think on an evolutionary scale.

A hundred years is a knats piss in the larger picture.

[B Whale]

29. That'll teach who a lesson? America and Europe pollute

the planet to fuck and millions die in Africa and Asia, so fuck em. you're shitting me?

[Baclava]

32. You're putting the jackboots on me - I have to act the part.

The human species is in no danger from dying out from a warm earth in the next few thousand years.

Relax and smell the flowers. They love that heat.

A warm earth is a happy earth.

[B Whale]

35. You're a strange man.

I think people dying from drought and famine should be prevented where possible.

[Baclava]

36. You do that.

Everyone has a part in mankind's survival.

Even if my thinking apart from the herd gets them restless.

We are all carbon, you know.

[Baclava]

38. Of course, it's all just a theory.

All of it. Everything.

I say Mankind is not as smart as it thinks. They make nice digital cameras though.

[B Whale]

45. i say you're not as smart as you think

and we should hedge our bets by going with scientific evidence

[Baclava]

52. You spin the wheel and take you chances.

It's all a carnival game and we're all bozo's here on this bus.

[B Whale]

55. idiot

[Reterr]

54. Not smart, but possibly drunk.eom

[Baclava]

56. Sober people are so, like, boring.

...don't you think?

Remember, without plants, we'd never have discovered beer.

And beer advanced science and man advanced beer for a thousand years, and probably saved you from wearing-skins and picking grubs today.

Bow down to those greater than you, for you have arrived here today on their beery breath.

[PaulaFarrell]

46. Hope you live in a nice high part of Florida

No? so sad

[Baclava]

51. 52 ft above sea level, thank you. I think ahead, 500 years.

It's not hard if you try.

[Barrett808]

59. Everything *natural* is cyclical. Human carbon emissions are anything but natural.

Posting evidence of Milanković cycles doesn't address the sudden, recent, gigantic excursion in the global carbon budget caused by humans.

[Javaman]

31. This whole thread is like some fool arguing with himself. nt

[neverforget]

40. Scientists know nothing of science! The Earth is flat and we are the center of

the universe! (Directed at all the deniers)

[Baclava]

44. Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity says you're wrong.

But, from your perspective, I suppose you fell into the black hole of dogma eons ago and can't see out.

[B Whale]

47. Baclava is a troll or he is drunk

either way ignore his nonsense. He's quite good at winding people up but if you read the threads it is a wind up. He's not serious.

Although there would be funnier issues to have a laugh with than climate change

[Baclava]

50. Like this thread will change the world.

Typical human-centric remark.

You filthy apes ain't all that.

[opihimoimoi]

49. The Oceans are RISING...I see it everyday during tide cycles..every full moon

the heights are getting higher by the year...

We are still using Band Aid mentality....our Leaders are challenged....both parties....but the Dem Party thinks for the Best for all of us.....

We can only work for Peace if we wish it so

[Rage for Order]

61. A little hysteria goes a long way, it seems

Lord Stern is an economist, and he's not saying "global warming is even worse than he thought", he's saying the costs associated with global warming, if global temperatures rise 4-7 degrees Celsius, would be even worse than he thought. The costs are worse than he thought, not global warming itself.

[NickB79]

67. Actually, he IS saying global warming is worse than previously thought, not just the economic impact

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x189726

"Sea Level Rise To Range From .75 to 1.9 Meters By 2100 - Well Ahead Of IPCC Outlook"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x189783

"The 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that average temperatures could rise by 6C this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at current rates. Scientists at the Copenhagen Climate Congress this week said the IPCC may have underestimated the scale of the problem, and that emissions since 2000 have risen much faster than expected."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x189326

"Carbon cuts 'only give 50/50 chance of saving planet'—simulations show catastrophe just years away"

You can find dozens of links like this over on the Environment Forum here on DU.

[B Whale]

68. No thats not what he's saying. He anticipated 2 to 3 degrees of

warming and is now anticipating potentially 5 or 6 or even 7