Northeast US to suffer most from future sea rise

[AlphaCentauri]

Source: ABC

Any sea level rise from man-made climate change will most drastically affect the northeastern United States.

That's according to a new study of ocean currents based on computer modeling.

Some scientists have been predicting a 2- to 3-foot rise in global sea levels by 2100, due to global warming. But the author of a new study says the increase will be "greater and faster" in the Northeast, with Boston being one of the worst hit among major cities.


Read more: http://www.kgan.com/template/inews_wire/wires.national/33b3ea4d-www.kgan.com.shtml

[MannyGoldstein]

1. I Live On A Hill A Block From Boston

I look forward to having waterfront property.

(Sorry, I know it's a serious matter...)

[Xipe Totec]

4. Is it a Great Big Blue Hill?

If so, we're neighbors.

:hi:

[MannyGoldstein]

16. Newton, On The Brighton Border

Not nearly so scenic.

[Xipe Totec]

17. Oh well, keep your kayak handy,

we'll do fishin' and stuff... :hi:

[MannyGoldstein]

18. And Back Bay Will Really be A Bay Again!

See you there!

[liberal N proud]

2. I guess I had better hurry and see Acadia NP

The only part of the US that I have not been, Main and Acadia.

[rox63]

3. Acadia NP is gorgeous

So is the whole Maine coast. See it while you can.

I live about 30 miles northwest of Boston. Will the sea level rise will reach my area as well? :scared:

[liberal N proud]

7. We are planing a fall trip

It's our 25th Anniversary and we decided that we have talked about Acadia long enough.

Do you know where the best place to stay is in the Bar Harbor area?

[formercia]

8. Bar Harbor is expensive in high season.

My wife works within walking distance of the park.

There are plenty of good accommodations in the Ellsworth area. It's only a half-hour from the island. You don't need to pay to get into most of the park, just the drive along the coastal cliffs. If you like to hike, there are loads of trails and don't miss Sunrise on Cadillac Mt. for the first spot to get the morning sun in the US during the Winter, or so it's said.
http://www.acadiamagic.com/CadillacMountain.html

We prefer the off season and leave the Summer for the tourons. We go up to camp where it's quiet.

[liberal N proud]

11. Thanks for the tip

Our trip will be mid October as that is our official anniversary.

Just trying to plan it now, looking for the bargains yet as it is our anniversary want it to be nice.

[formercia]

13. That's a great time to go

Those crisp Fall days when the air is so clear, it seems you can see California. :)

[rox63]

12. Depends how you define "best"

I always stay at an out-of-the-way place that has little cabins with a kitchenette, to save $ on dining out. It's not fancy, but it's very comfy. There are lots of fancy expensive places up there. But I generally can't afford those.

Edit to add: This is the place I usually stay. It's not fancy, but it's perfectly fine and cozy:

http://www.bartonsbarharbor.com/Cottages.html

[liberal N proud]

14. Cute little cabins

I am sure my wife isn't going to want to do any cooking on this trip. Any other trip we would be packing a cooler with whatever we could to reduce the dining cost.

I am sure the 25th deserves a break from all that.

They might be worth a look anyway

Thanks

[rox63]

15. There are also plenty of places that will give you both a vacation you'll never forget

http://www.barharborinfo.com

[northernlights]

5. a lot of little Maine seaside villages

will be gone. Many are like little basins just a little above sea level. I think this spring is when I'll hit Acadia. I'm hoping to leave Maine by fall.

[kskiska]

9. The Bush compound at Kennebunkport must be a sitting duck

out there on that peninsula. I wonder what will happen to it when Poppy kicks the bucket? Junior certainly wouldn't want to sit around up there drinking white wine spritzers.

[formercia]

30. delete

[truthisfreedom]

6. How does water rise faster in one part of the ocean? That would seem to defy some scientific

principles, and it certainly defies logic.

[ohio2007]

10. true dat

I suppose the population shift is what the story is all about. It was predicted at one time that by the year 2010, tide waters would be reaching Wall Street and flooding the tunnels of NY City.

That was at a time when they were predicting five to eight category five hurricanes were going to happen annually as a result of global warming


http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[Lost in CT]

21. OMG the stock market predicts Hurricaines... or vice versa... nt

[ohio2007]

25. Exclusive: No ice at the North Pole ( 2008 ) Hope nobody bought into that stock

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/IceConcAnim.gif

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3370882&mesg_id=3370882

theres always next year

[DLnyc]

19. Yes, cute little article, but it makes NO SENSE AT ALL, as far as I can see.

It is not really possible for sea levels changes at different places on the same oceans to differ appreciably.

[The abyss]

20. In other words more “social engineering”?

Courtesy of ABC.

I agree the story does not make any sense!

So why do they put it out on their wire? That is the question I always find myself asking.

[muriel_volestrangler]

23. It says it's due to currents; there's also the possibility of land level change

due to things like glacial rebound (for example, in Britain, the centre of Scotland is rising at 2mm/year; while East Anglia is sinking at about the same rate, after adjustment for what global sea level is doing).

From a more detailed article:

Jianjun Yin, a climate modeler at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State, said there is a better than 90 percent chance that the sea level rise along this heavily populated coast will exceed the mean global sea level rise by the year 2100. The rising waters in this region -- perhaps by as much as 18 inches or more -- can be attributed to thermal expansion and the slowing of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation because of warmer ocean surface temperatures.
...
Although low-lying Florida and Western Europe are often considered the most vulnerable to sea level changes, the northeast U.S. coast is particularly vulnerable because the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is susceptible to global warming. The AMOC is the giant circulation in the Atlantic with warm and salty seawater flowing northward in the upper ocean and cold seawater flowing southward at depth. Global warming could cause an ocean surface warming and freshening in the high-latitude North Atlantic, preventing the sinking of the surface water, which would slow the AMOC.

Journal reference:

1. Yin et al. Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States. Nature Geoscience, March 15, 2009; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo462

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090315155112.htm

[hedgehog]

27. Wind and water currents can pile water up like water sloshing in a tub.

The water level in Lake Erie, for example, can be higher at Buffalo than Toledo because the west wind actually pushes the water to that end of the lake.

[Tab]

29. I'm not enough of a meteorologist to say for sure but

There are different oceans in the world, and different parts of oceans. For instance, outside of Boston (and Maine and New Hampshire) it's the North Atlantic. The currents are different. Boston is the only major metro area this far north, although presumably everything from Portland, ME to New York City would get in trouble.

But you are both right and wrong. Wrong, I think, from the point of view that a rise in the North Atlantic doesn't necessarily mean a rise in the South Atlantic or Carribbean (e.g.: Miami, Bahamas, whatever), but right from the point of view that last I looked both Boston and New York City were pretty much at sea level - I think, and more on this in a second...

Sea Level is an interesting concept, and maybe this is the trick to the argument. Sea Level does not mean when you're down at the ocean (although it's close). Sea Level is the average elevation (as judged by barometric pressure) throughout the world. So you could have two places, both ports on the sea, but one could actually be at a higher (or lower) elevation than the other. I don't know the elevations of Boston and NYC specifically, but it's possible that Boston is a bit lower than NYC, and thus more susceptible to flooding.

Also there's temperature variations, and major ones between Boston and NYC (it may just be a few degrees, but there's a big difference between taking a dip in the ocean in Boston or Maine, and taking one at the Jersey Shore).

- Tab

[Lost in CT]

22. Is it me or is this junk science put out there to discredit real climate change. nt

PS you wouldn't notice a two foot rise in sea level over a hundred years (think about it)

[gristy]

24. Not buying it

Why would the sea level differences around the globe increase by at least 7" with just a 3' rise? This article references an on-line journal "Nature Geoscience." On-line means not peer-reviewed. I need to understand what drives these sea level differences in the first place, and how these driving forces change with a rise in sea level. This article gives no clue.

[The abyss]

26. Nor am I.

Social engineering – Do not ask uncomfortable questions! Just believe.

Rinse Repeat – Rinse Repeat. Say it over and over and eventually others will be convinced.

Just buy those stocks in the “green light bulb companies”!

[muriel_volestrangler]

32. No, 'online' does not mean 'not peer-reviewed'

This is a publication of Nature, possibly the most respected peer-reviewed science publication i nthe world (it's either that, or 'Science'). I'll let them explain:

Nature journals offer Advance Online Publication (AOP).

We believe that AOP is the best and quickest way to publish high-quality, peer-reviewed research for the benefit of readers and authors. All papers published AOP, for any NPG journal, are the definitive version: they do not change before appearing in print and can be referenced formally as soon as they appear on the journal's AOP website.

Each journal's website includes an AOP table of contents, in which papers are listed in order of publication date (beginning with the most recent). Each paper carries a digital object identifier (DOI), which serves as a unique electronic identification tag for that paper. As soon as the issue containing the paper is printed, papers will be removed from the AOP table of contents, assigned a page number and transferred to that issue's table of contents on the website. The DOI remains attached to the paper to provide a persistent identifier.

http://www.nature.com/authors/author_services/about_aop.html

Nature Geoscience is committed to publishing significant, high-quality research in the Earth Sciences through a fair, rapid and rigorous peer review process that is overseen by a team of full-time professional editors.

In addition to publishing primary research, Nature Geoscience provides an overview of the most important developments in the Earth Sciences through the publication of Review Articles, News and Views, Research Highlights, Commentaries and reviews of relevant books and arts events.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/about_journal.html

See #23 for a better news article on the paper, and a link to the abstract itself.

[Tab]

28. If I hang on long enough

I may own myself some oceanfront property.

And I'm about 40 miles from the ocean.

[pipi_k]

31. So let me get this straight....

Boston and NYC go underwater but the rest of the Eastern Seaboard (all the way to Florida) is safe?


oooooookay!

:freak:

[ohio2007]

35. LOL. it's a small world afterall

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25182520-2703,00.html

[Downwinder]

33. Can't say that I'll be sad when Wall Street actually goes under water. n/t

[bronxiteforever]

34. NOAA has been covering sea level trends

"The Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services has been measuring sea level for over 150 years, with tide stations operating on all U.S. coasts."

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

Go to the site and click on a state and look at the trend. There are arrows on the graph that represent the trends.

As to why there are different sea levels NOAA states



"There are a number of factors that contribute to long and short-term variations in sea level. Short-term variations generally occur on a daily basis and include waves, tides, or specific flood events, such as those associated with a winter snow melt, or hurricane or other coastal storm. Long-term variations in sea level occur over various time scales, from monthly to several years, and may be repeatable cycles, gradual trends, or intermittent anomalies. Seasonal weather patterns, variations in the Earth's declination, changes in coastal and ocean circulation, anthropogenic influences (such as dredging), vertical land motion, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation are just a few of the many factors influencing changes in sea level over time. When estimating sea level trends, a minimum of 30 years of data are used in order to account for long-term sea level variations and reduce errors in computing sea level trends based on monthly mean sea level. Accounting for repeatable, predictable cycles, such as tidal, seasonal, and interannual variations allows computation of a more accurate long-term sea level trend."

peace