Specter trails in Senate race(Repub Primary), poll says

[RamboLiberal]

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Longtime Sen. Arlen Specter is trailing a Republican rival in the race for the 2010 Senate seat, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

Mr. Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey, 41 to 27 percent, the poll said. Twenty-eight percent are undecided, however.

"Pennsylvania Republicans are so unhappy with Sen. Specter's vote for President Barack Obama's stimulus package and so-called pork barrel spending that they are voting for a former Congressman they hardly know," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Richards said Mr. Toomey "has strong conservative backing, but his challenge could be fractured if more Republicans crowd into the primary and split the anti-Specter vote,"


Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09084/958134-100.stm

[lsewpershad]

1. Good

He needs to go. Now we can replace him with a Democrat.

[wisteria]

8. That won't happen.

And,as a Pa resident, I do not want to see Scaife backed Toomey get anywhere.

[Winterblues]

32. Why do you say that?

Do you think Democrats can never win in PA? I do not believe PA is so far hard right as you may think it is...

[sinkingfeeling]

2. Running polls and clamoring about an election that's 20 months away, is a total waste of

time.

[MadBadger]

4. Not true when an incumbent polls this poorly.. It shows that he is extremely vulnerable.

[wisteria]

11. Quinpac polls are highly manipulative.

And, if they only polled Republicans the numbers do not mean much. Pa is generally moderate and Democratic. But, they like a balance and two Dem senators may make a lot of people nervous. And, frankly, I will take Specter any day over the prospect of Scaife backed Toomey.

[MadBadger]

14. They only polled repukes because this is a Repuke primary poll

Doesnt matter how moderate or democratic the entire state is, this is just a primary.

[karynnj]

23. You are speaking of a Specter/Democrat race - the poll of a Specter/ Toomey PRIMARY

What this shows is that if this anger continues, Specter could easily be defeated in the primary. Then, unless he runs a "Lieberman" independent race, in the general election there will not be a chance to vote for Specter. An independent Spector run could be the worst circumstance for the Democrats - resulting in trading Specter for Toomey.

The Lieberman victory this way is an aberration that likely needed the extremely weak Republican candidate to happen. The norm is more like what happened when Javits, a liberal NY Democrat lost to D'Amato. D'Amato won because Javits took some of the liberal/moderate vote from Holtzman. (Unlike Lieberman and the Republican - where Lieberman got a huge percent of the Republican and Independent vote and retained about a third of the Democratic vote, neither Javits or Holtzman were marginal candidates.)

[blue_onyx]

15. But a lot can happen in the next year

He may be vulnerable now but may be less vulnerable by the time the election comes around.

[bluestateguy]

3. OK fine, but who is our candidate?

If we lose Dodd, we will need to make up the loss with this seat. Then I think we can get to 60 by winning New Hampshire or Ohio. I think harry Reid will be OK in Nevada, too.

[Lasher]

7. Joe Hoeffel ran against Specter in 2004

And it was a close race considering Specter was seeking his 5th term: Specter 53%, Hoeffel 42%. This could be very good for our chances in this race. Even if Specter does manage to win the GOP nomination, pouting Republicans might stay home in droves in November.

[LynneSin]

17. This is a state that rejected Rick Santorum by 19 points

At this point it doesn't matter who the Dem candidate is - they'll win in November. Specter's problem is that with primaries it'll mainly be just republicans vote and some uber republican can run and be competitive. But there is no way that same uber republican can stand up to a general election unless Philadelphia cedes from the state to become their own country.

[PittPoliSci]

20. i don't share your optimism.

specter isn't santorum, he has a lot of cross-party appeal. i think the best hope for a democratic pick-up is if this toomey lunatic wins. the hardcore right from the center of the state and westmoreland county love morons like toomey. we just have to hope that we get people who voted for obama to come back to the polls in '10 and we're in, but i don't think that'll happen.

[LynneSin]

25. That's not about Specter - we'll probably lose slightly if it's Specter vs. any democrat

But if it is Toomey vs. any democrat the dems will win. Toomey won't get a share of the Philadelphia vote that democrats get great numbers and Specter somehow manages to get more than his share. Philadelphians are loyally democrat but love Specter. So he'll manage a win by not making the losses in Philadelphia country too horrible AND by winning some of the suburbs that would have gone democrat with any other republican candidate.

[karynnj]

24. Or Specter loses and runs as an independent

Then the question is where his votes come from.

[LynneSin]

26. That's a really really tough call there

Because unlike Lieberman in Connecticut, I highly doubt the'll have to strong, overwhelming cross-over vote across the democratic party like Lieberman got with the Republicans. Sure Arlen will pull in independents and moderate voters but will it be enough to counter a republican candidate with strong appeal to the "T-Zone" of the state PLUS a democrat that would still probably garner 30%+ of the vote even if they are a total unknown.

Part of Lieberman's success in Connecticut was the concept that no one voted for the republican candidate and the RNC/RSCC did not support that candidate in anyway whatsoever. I do not see the DNC/DSCC totally abandoning their democratic candidate to help keep Arlen Specter in the Senate. The RNC knew that if Lieberman didn't run as an independent there was no way their republican candidate would beat Lamont. Since Joe was a reliable vote for anything related to the war, it was better to keep Lieberman in the seat then to give it over totally to a very progressive democrat that would still mirror Lieberman's stance on social issues (lieberman is definitely progressive in many of those areas) but would be a vote against the war. However, in Pennsylvania, democrats know they stand a better chance of winning that senate seat if it's Toomey vs. any democratic candidate. There is a strong segment of ultra right-wing republicans in Pennsylvania but hardly enough to win a statewide election anymore. Rick Santorum and Lynn Swann each lost by 20pts in their respective races in 2006 and McCain, who is a bit more moderate, lost by 11pts - way higher then what Kerry (whose wife was from Pennsylvania) and Gore had done in previous elections.

The thing that would worry the democrats the most is an independent run by Specter, something that the RNC might want to consider if Specter loses against Toomey. Because it really would be a 3-way race to see who wins the Keystone state and Specter might siphon off enough democrat votes to give Toomey the surprise win OR Specter might just win outright which is still a better choice than losing another seat to the democrats.

[karynnj]

27. I definately agree with you

The Republicans didn't even pretend to have a valid CT candidate. That was why I thought it would be more like the NY case - where Javits took enough Dem and Ind votes, leading to Holtzman getting too few votes to beat D'Amato, who won the conservative Republican vote.

Your numbers suggest that in PA, the Democrat might still win as he/she would get 30% plus - in a three way race - he might win with under 40% or even 35% if the other two split the rest evenly - which given that Specter would get more independents could happen even if the poll is correct that Toomey gets the lion's share of Republicans.

[LynneSin]

28. Rick Santorum got 41% of the vote in his loss in 2006

Toomey is cut pretty much from the same cloth as Santorum. So if there is a 3-way race in 2010 with Toomey, Specter and the unknown Democrat - just how much of that 41% of the voters out there are the hard-core republicans that want someone like Toomey again.

Now what we haven't factored in all of this is the surge of new voters registered in 2008 to vote for Obama. A large portion of that came in the Philadelphia region BUT are they reliable voters. Since Rendell allowed college students to registered in PA - how many of those have graduated and left PA? And how many were inspired to vote for a candidate like Obama but might not be inspired to vote for another standard issue Democrat? And remember, Specter is from Philly so he'll get the moderates and maybe win a few of the suburban Philly counties.

Honestly, a small part of me says if it's a 3-way race that if we don't have a strong democratic candidate that we should negotiate with Specter to help him keep the seat. I know I'll get slammed for it but we really don't want Toomey. Might as well just give the seat back to Rick Santorum because that's what we would be getting with Toomey. PLUS, Specter is in his 80s and not in good health. Although this sounds a bit morbid - Specter might not live for the entire 6 years and if we keep the governor seat with the democrats that means we could replace Specter with a democrat.

[karynnj]

30. thanks for this analysis

It really does look like a 3 way race would end up with Toomey. It might be that given Specter's age, he would opt not to make the independent race, which from this he might be the least likely to win.

[AndyTiedye]

18. Lose Dodd? Is CT Going Totally Red Now?

[dropkickpa]

5. This bodes well for the Dem challenger

Pretty much the only way to put a Dem in Specters seat is if he isn't running. Lot's of dem's in this state vote for him. If a conservo-pug jumps in, I think a decent Dem contender would be a shoo-in.

[RamboLiberal]

6. One thing that scares me as a PA resident

is the talk of Specter running as an independent if he loses the primary. We have a lot of older & conservative Dems that would vote for him. I could see him being our Lieberman. Or he could by doing this give Toomey the victory in the general. I hope we get a good high profile Dem to run in 2010.

[wisteria]

9. As a PA resident myself, I can't see old Pa voting for a new Dem.

Even one that is high profile. And come to think of it, I don't even know of any high profile Dem's in Pa that would be interested in running for the Senate. Casey was the only one that had a comfortable reputation and a recognizable name.
Frankly, I think we are better off with Specter- even if I disagree with him most of the time. At least he is moderate. Toomey is just awful.

[dropkickpa]

10. Or dawg forbid flip-flop back to dem *blarg*

He polls higher than Biden, for instance, in many groups (NARAL, Childrens Defense Fund), so that would make him an easy pill to swallow for PA-dems, so we need a GOOD, HIGH PROFILE dem contender in 2010. Rendell has been raising high profile nation-wide lately, don't know if he's considering a run yet or not.

[wisteria]

13. Rendell will not run for the Senate. He isn't senate material anyway.

Actually, he has hopes for a cabinet position at some point.

[wisteria]

12. Toomey hasn't even made up his mind to run yet.

I suppose he may be holding out for more from Scaife.

[pattmarty]

16. He's against EFCA, so we sink the motherfucker and let the...........

..........conservative nut win the primary and run a Liberal against the nut AND pickup another seat. End of Pennsylvania story.

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. A "liberal" won't pick up this seat. Casey is a Democrat, but he's no "liberal".

I think there may be a chance of a pickup, but it will probably have to be in the mold of Casey or another moderate Dem.

[PittPoliSci]

21. Casey's no liberal but...

he supports obama's economic plans, which is the most important thing right now. we need to find another democrat to run that supports that platform. no dinos, no excuses.

[Oak2004]

29. Against a Republican wingnut? Yes, PA can vote in a liberal Dem

if the liberal Dem can get through the primary.

In fact, given that the Republican brand is in the toilet, a credible liberal Democratic candidate is almost a shoo-in.

It's a myth that liberals can't win in state or district X (fill in the variable). People do not vote rationally. Many a liberal has won in apparently conservative districts. What's important is that the liberal be likable and seen as "belonging" to the district or state, and that the liberal run a good campaign.

Remember, on the issues, people are far more liberal than they think they are. There are very few districts in America that are genuinely conservative (most conservative districts would poll on the issues as moderate at best, and many self-described "conservative" areas are liberal on the issues). A congressmember with a liberal voting record who meets the above criteria would be voting with the actual opinions of his or her district a majority of the time, even if his or her constituents would label themselves something else.

And yes, I know PA politics. I lived there for a number of years.

Addendum: and almost became my precinct's committeeperson -- as a Republican.

[LynneSin]

34. You're kidding me right? Casey is no liberal. Pul-lease - read his damn voting record

Yes, the man is pro-life but not horribly anti-choice to the point that he would stop birth control, EC or family planning funding.

But you take away choice and is liberal to the core. Casey is not a member of that new Blue Dog coalition nor is he a member of the DLC

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Democrats
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrat_Coalition#Pennsylvania

In 2008 the American Conservative Union rated Bob Casey Jr. an 8. That pretty much puts you on the shitlist for the republicans & conservatives.

http://www.acuratings.org/2008all.htm#PA

I lived in Pennsylvania for 30+ years before moving to Delaware. The Casey family is oddly pro-life but you remove choice and you'll find that they have a history of fighting for working families. Pennsylvanian unions love anything with Casey and the Casey family has been champions for Education & Healthcare. There isn't one liberal out there whose record Casey's won't stand up to when it comes for social issues outside of Choice.

So please, research first before assuming. Just because Casey doesn't agree 100% doesn't make him a DINO/DLCer/Moderate

[Joe Bacon]

22. What about Sestak?

Would Sestak have a chance against Toomey? Heck even Altmire would be better than Toomey!

[RamboLiberal]

31. Sestak or Altmire would be good candidates IMHO

Either I think could beat Toomey or another wingnut in GE. Might not beat Specter. And if Specter splits the moderate/independent/Dem vote by running as a independent in a 3-way race we could get Toomey or another wingnut in a close election.

[LynneSin]

33. The only thing that concerns me about Altmire is we could lose his district

From what I've read, PA-4 is actually republican leaning but Altmire has been popular enough to stave off a rematch against the prior owner of that seat, republican idiot Melissa Hart. My concern is if PA-4 became open that it could be ripe pickings for Hart to win in back.

[RamboLiberal]

35. Specter trying to gauge interest in an 'open' primary election

U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter has been sounding out Republican state senators about whether Pennsylvania should adopt a type of open primary elections, where independent voters could vote in the party primaries that Republicans and Democrats hold each May.

Some political observers think Mr. Specter would benefit from an open primary in May 2010, when he's likely to face Pat Toomey, a conservative Republican and former congressman from Eastern Pennsylvania, and possibly another conservative challenger, Peg Luksik.

Mr. Specter has alienated many conservative Republicans, most recently over voting for President Barack Obama's economic stimulus package. So some think he'd benefit from independents and moderates being able to vote in the May 2010 GOP Senate primary.

"An open primary would be a godsend for Arlen Specter," said pollster Christopher Borick of Muhlenberg College. "Many independents in Pennsylvania who have supported him in the past would come to his aid. He would love it. But both parties have resisted it."

The senator is interested in the open primary notion, his campaign manager Chris Nicholas said, as a possible way of "increasing participation, and helping the Republican party and growing the party."

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09085/958475-454.stm

Unless the looney tunes wingnuts run more than 1 candidate against Specter - this is his only hope of surviving the primary.

[Supersedeas]

36. Specter in PA, and Burr in NC (go Roy Cooper)

[BlueIdaho]

37. An easy-peasy solution to republican politics...

Vote for the Democrat.